2019 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: 5/8 (63%)
2018 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)
2017 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
- Considering how dominant North Queensland’s forward pack is (and they were phenomenal last Saturday night), the Dragons actually did an impressive job at competing for yardage. A lot of the heavy lifting was done by their outside backs (their Top 3 metre-eaters were Mikaele Ravalawa, Jordan Pereira and Euan Aitken), but how they get them is irrelevant – the main takeaway is that they were able to compete for territory against the game’s very best. We still can’t tip them here – but that’s only because their offense has yet to gel, and they’re facing last year’s best attacking side, the Rabbitohs. Long-term, once their reconfigured spine settles into a groove, the Dragons do appear to have some upside.
- Despite all the pre-match talk being about how impressive the Broncos’ pack is, it was the Storm forwards who won the day in the season opener. A whopping 6 Storm forwards ran for over 90m last week (compared to just 3 for the Broncos), laying the foundation for the Storm machine to keep chugging along. Unsurprisingly, the majority of Melbourne’s offense ran through Cameron Munster, which only makes them more scary – if the Storm are this good while getting just a single try involvement from Brodie Croft and Jahrome Hughes, imagine how good they’ll be when they also start firing.
- Speaking of the Broncos, we’d be surprised if the Matt Gillett lock experiment lasts beyond the opening month or so. Offensively, Gillett offers nothing as a battering ram (he averaged less than 6m per hit-up against Melbourne), and his best asset – his flawless edge defense – is being wasted while he racks up tackles in the middle of the field. To make matters worse, all 4 of the Storm’s line breaks came down the Broncos’ edges, including 1 line break conceded each for edge forwards David Fifita and Jaydn Su’a. Anthony Seibold isn’t stupid, so you’d have to think he’s unlikely to persist if things don’t improve.
- Three teams in particular suffered losses last week that were almost entirely self-inflicted – the Roosters, Sharks and Panthers. All three made 13 or more errors, with Cronulla and Penrith compounding their awful handling by conceding a further 9 or more penalties. It’s nearly impossible to win with such shocking discipline, which does raise an interesting point – all three sides were within 8 points in their respective matches with 15 minutes remaining (and in the cases of Cronulla and Penrith, they were within 1 score inside the final 5 minutes). Yes, these sides were all terrible, but they deserve some credit for somehow remaining competitive while playing some of the worst football imaginable. Their discipline can only improve.
- The flip side of that coin is how unconvincing their opponents were. The Eels, for example, enjoyed a ridiculous 57% share of possession, and spent 60% of the game on Penrith’s side of halfway, yet somehow managed just 3 line breaks? That’s not something to be proud of; it’s embarrassing. They might never be gifted that much football in a game again all year (how often do you see a 10-2 penalty count?), and yet they still struggled to trouble the scorers. Yes, the Panthers’ defense was superb, but the lack of attacking potency from the Eels is a huge concern going forward.
- We try not to overreact to Round 1 results, but the Warriors deserve a mention for the demolition job they did to the Bulldogs last week. Following the tragedy in Christchurch last Friday, this was likely an emotion-charged performance, and we should expect some degree of a comedown against the Tigers; but still – in Week One the Warriors led the league in line breaks, tackle breaks, offloads and run metres, while conceding just a single try. We have consistently low expectations from our friends across the Tasman, but they’ve earned our trust for another week.