2019 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: 22/32 (69%) (Last week: 6/8)
2018 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)
2017 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
- The Broncos have been getting hammered in the press this week for their ordinary form so far (and rightly so), but we’d argue that on the whole, they’re not traveling as badly as it may look at first glance. Their pummeling at the hands of the Roosters was largely self-inflicted, with the Broncos earning just 42% of possession as a result of an uncharacteristically clumsy 17-error performance (they made just 15 errors across the opening two weeks combined). In fact, the Broncos’ offense actually generated an equal number of line breaks to the Roosters, despite the paltry share of possession. With more football and against a worse team (like, for example, this week’s opponent, the Tigers), we’d expect the Broncos to score something in the neighbourhood of around 20 or so points.
- Where the Broncos were particularly ordinary though, was in their run defense – even allowing for the possession disadvantage, it’s close to impossible to win a game while conceding over 1800m. The easy yardage that Sydney were making through the Broncos’ middle (every Roosters starting forward gained over 100m, including Sio Siua Taukeiaho, who cracked 200), coupled with the aforementioned errors, left the Broncos camped down their own end for most of the match, and contributed to the Roosters racking up a big score without requiring much enterprise with the footy. Considering that the Broncos’ pack is considered to be one of their strengths, this needs to be addressed ASAP.
- In contrast, the Broncos’ opponents this weekend – the Tigers – have very little to be happy about. Contrary to the perplexing indignity of large swathes of their social media fanbase, the Tigers did not deserve to win last Friday, and the best team did not lose. Let’s be clear – if you manage to go an entire game without making any line breaks, you were not good. If you were outperformed in almost every statistical area, despite being gifted possession by an opponent making 18 errors – you deserve to lose. Don’t get us wrong – the Panthers were ordinary. However, it’s worth noting that for all the errors and opportunities they presented the Tigers with, they still finished the game with more points, line breaks, run metres, tackle breaks, offloads, and Clearys. The Panthers were sloppy; the Tigers were atrocious in every facet of rugby league.
- As we observed last week, the Cowboys continued to struggle for yardage, with the Raiders holding North Queensland to under 1200m for the second straight week. Against a Storm team ranked 5th in the league for RMVOA, we’re not expecting them have much more luck this week, either.
- Were it not for the loss of star fullback Tom Trbojevic, we’d likely have backed the Sea Eagles for an upset this week in their away trip to Newcastle. After a shockingly inept opening fortnight, they’ve seemingly hit their straps over the last two weeks, in wins over the Warriors and Rabbitohs. In the space of a month, Des Hasler has already improved the Manly defense from awful to merely below average; and their offense once again looks capable of scoring from any area of the field. Unfortunately, that uptick in production coincided with the return from injury of Trbojevic, and without him it’s hard to feel confident that we won’t see a return to the same stinky Manly team of the opening two weeks.
- The Bulldogs went within a whisker of doing the impossible and beating the Storm in Melbourne, which now has everyone asking – does this mean the Bulldogs are good now? Look, it’s possible. However, it’s also worth noting that if there’s one thing Melbourne are known for, it’s dropping the odd game each season to trash teams, who subsequently fade into oblivion. Last year, the Victorians lost twice to the Tigers (who finished 9th); in 2017, they got rolled by the Titans (who finished 2nd last); in 2016, the Knights – who would win just one game all season – got within 4 points of pipping Melbourne at AAMI Park. The point is, Melbourne aren’t perfect, and they sure as heck weren’t last weekend. It’s certainly promising for the Bulldogs that they were capable of hanging with an elite team for 80 minutes, but we’re not sold that they’ve turned the corner…yet.
- Similarly, we’re not sold on the Eels yet either, but gee, we’re getting close. With the addition of another win last weekend, the mounting case for Parramatta continues to build. However, there’s still question marks around the quality of the sides they’ve beaten. The Panthers have yet to make less than 13 errors in a match; the Eels beat the Bulldogs the week before Canterbury became competitive; and the Sharks were without their only two decent attacking playmakers (Matt Moylan and Shaun Johnson) last weekend. It could be argued that Parramatta have so far faced just one legitimate contender – the Roosters – and when they did, they got spanked 32-18. All of that being said, the Raiders are starting to pick up some steam, and if the Eels can go down to Canberra and get the chocolates, we’ll be ready to jump on the Parramatta bandwagon. Your move, Parra.