2019 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: 70/116 (60%) (Last week: 4/8)
2018 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)
2017 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
- If you’re ever going to choose to play the Storm, the State of Origin period is surely it – Melbourne have lost a third of their squad to representative duties, including Cameron Munster, Josh Addo-Carr, Will Chambers, Dale Finucane, Felise Kaufusi and Christian Welch. So why are we still backing them? Because the Dragons are missing almost as many troops, and arguably more critical ones. Though it’s never great to have your side decimated, the Storm have only lost a single spine player (Munster), and have quality depth to replace many of the others. Melbourne have called in familiar names like Jahrome Hughes, Solomone Kata and Albert Vete to replace their absent stars; the Dragons are left recalling flops like Jai Field. While Melbourne will still have Cameron Smith and Brodie Croft to steer the side around, the Dragons have lost both starting halves (Corey Norman and Ben Hunt), and weren’t traveling especially well even with them. Add in a forward pack without Paul Vaughan, Tyson Frizell and Tariq Sims, and the Dragons may even get belted by the Baby Storm.
- While we don’t put a lot of stock into historical records, there aren’t many long-term trends as dominant as the Roosters‘ ownership of the Tigers, with Sydney having won 16 of the sides’ past 18 meetings, dating all the way back to 2010. The Tigers would likely be feeling somewhat optimistic about their chances here against an Origin-affected Roosters side, but we’re not actually convinced that the Roosters are any worse. Sure, they’ve lost James Tedesco and Boyd Cordner to Origin duties, but those losses are almost completely offset by the return of star five-eighth Luke Keary, as well as key forward Jared Waerea-Hargreaves. In Sydney’s 4 outings without Keary (including the Knights game, in which Keary was lost after 8 minutes) they’ve scored more than 2 tries just once (against wooden spoon specials, the Bulldogs). Prior to losing Keary, they’d only failed to exceed 2 tries in a game once in their first 10 matches. In short, there may not be a more critical player to the Roosters’ offensive fortunes than Keary – and that includes Tedesco.
- If we were to pick the most likely upset of the round, it would have been the Ponga-less Knights against the Warriors at Newcastle. The Warriors are completely unaffected by Origin, while the Knights were intially without Daniel Saifiti and Tim Glasby, in addition to the injured Ponga. Though big losses, the Knights still weren’t without hope. For a start, the days of the Knights’ pack being marshmallows are a thing of the past – even without studs like Klemmer, guys like James Gavet have stood up impressively. Meanwhile, the forward leader in metres per carry isn’t one of their rep stars – it’s Herman Ese’ese (9.8). Further, although the Knights forward pack is badly affected, their backline remains one of the best in the competition, with strike weapons like Jesse Ramien (2nd in the league in tackle breaks) and Shaun Kenny-Dowall (13th) attacking the Warriors’ suspect edge defenders out wide. Unfortunately, the additional losses of Mitchell Pearce and David Klemmer are likely to starve the Knights of quality field position, and tip the scales towards New Zealand. Gavet and Ese’ese have been superb for Newcastle in short bursts, but if they can’t replicate that form over big minutes here, then the Knights will be forced to turn to the dubious ‘talents’ of guys like Josh King and Aidan Guerra. Against a Warriors side ranked 5th in the league for RMVOA and 4th for RMCVOA, there’s a serious possibility that Newcastle will get monstered once their bench comes on. In that case, they’d typically turn to the kicking game of Pearce to get them out of trouble, but he’s gone too. Unfortunately, the absentee list just looks like a little too much to overcome for Newcastle (though on the bright side, the sheer fact that they’re missing so many troops to Origin duty is a sign of just how far they’ve come).
- Finally, we come to the Sharks game. Look. Cronulla were awful on the weekend. Really, horribly, awful. However, the Sharks have a bit of form insofar as turning in an absolute stinker every month or so, and they’ve so far backed those games up with blinders. After a nightmare outing against the Sea Eagles in Round 10, they came out the following week and pumped the Dragons 22-9. And after failing to get off the bus in Brisbane in Round 7, they shocked the rugby league world a week later, beating the table-topping Storm. The point here is that a Grade-A bed-wetting against the Bulldogs doesn’t automatically mean that they’ll be bad again here – and especially not against a Broncos side who look like they’re playing to get their head coach fired. Sure, the Sharks were bad last week, but the Broncos have been dreadful for a month (and weren’t particularly good in March and April, either). Now, they’ve lost four players to Origin duty (which may go a long way to explaining why the Maroons got flogged in Game 2), in addition to losing Anthony Milford to a knee injury. In rugby league, anything can happen, but if we have to guess, we think the Broncos are going to get royally flogged.