2019 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: 124/196 (63%) (Last week: 2/4)
2018 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)
2017 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
- Through some confluence of good fortune, the Sea Eagles have found themselves on the soft side of the draw, and with a realistic chance of a fairytale run to the Grand Final. How did it come to this? Well, Ashley Klein had a huge hand in shifting Melbourne to the other side of the draw (and will be watching the games from home as a result), but as for Manly’s Week Two appearance – blame Cronulla. Yes, Manly played well. But does anyone actually believe that the Sea Eagles would have won that game if the Sharks were even remotely decent? They handed Manly a wealth of possession via 13 handling errors, and then simply refused to make any effort to defend, making a whopping 42 missed tackles (their most in any game this year, and just the 4th time all season they’ve missed more than 30). And before you start with your cries of “but maybe they were missing them because Manly were AWESOME”, let us stop you there. This wasn’t a case of a wrecking-ball like Addin Fonua-Blake wreaking havoc (though he was spectacular). Pretty much everyone was getting in on the action (all but 4 Sea Eagles players had at least 1 tackle break), paced by the anthropomorphic marshmallow Moses Suli, with 7 (for perspective, Suli’s 7 tackle busts equate to over 22% of his production for the entire season). For whatever reason, the Sharks simply had no intent on defense, and were punished appropriately.
- But will the Rabbitohs be any better? After all, they’re coming in off a 24-point drubbing of their own. Well, we’ll say this: as bad as Souths were, their problem wasn’t a lack of effort, it was a lack of ability relative to a much, much stronger opponent. The Roosters are generally superior to the Sea Eagles in terms of TBVOA (10.89% v 5.59%), yet the Rabbitohs allowed just 26 tackle busts (for the second consecutive week, against the same elite opponent). In two outings against Manly during the season, they averaged 28. No, the Rabbitohs got rolled because their middles got absolutely torched in the absence of team leader Sam Burgess. Just one Rabbitohs forward ran for over 100m (compared to six from the Roosters), which in turn led to an insurmountable 525m yardage disadvantage. From there, the Roosters had exactly the platform from which to launch their attack, with the returning Luke Keary generating 3 line break assists. Fortunately, the Sea Eagles simply don’t have a playmaker of Keary’s calibre (nobody does), nor do they have a pack as terrifying as that of Sydney; so the Rabbitohs should perform comparatively better, especially at home. We’re not ruling out another Manly miracle, but on the balance of it, we’re of the view that the Rabbitohs are simply better at football.
- The Eels were certainly impressive last weekend. True, like Manly above, Paramatta were largely profiting from the misfortunes of a spectacularly weak opponent, but the Eels produced football that the Sea Eagles could only dream of. Unfortunately, the reward for their efforts is a trip to Melbourne to face a Storm side seething after a disappointing loss. If you’re wondering how that might go, allow us to redirect your attention to Round 9 – the Storm came in off the back of a similarly disappointing loss to the Sharks, and came in primed to take their frustrations out on the hapless Eels. The Storm won that game, 64-10. It’s nice that Parramatta have given their fans plenty of lovely memories to take away from last weekend, but we’d be shocked if the Storm aren’t primed to destroy anything in their way this weekend. The Storm are so much better than the Eels that’s it’s not even really a debate – Parramatta need Melbourne to be a long way below their best if they’re going to compete. We just can’t see it.