2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 100/168 (60%)

Line Betting: 36/75 (48%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)

NRL Round 23 Tips and Previews

Broncos v Rabbitohs

Offense VOA: Broncos 10.50% (4th), Rabbitohs 42.79% (1st)

Defense VOA: Broncos -8.08% (5th), Rabbitohs -15.05% (3rd)

Having spent the better part of the last month arguing that the Broncos’ offense isn’t as good as people think it is, we’re taking a different position this week – that their defense isn’t as bad as its recently looked, either.

Regular readers will recall us making the point that the Broncos’ recent trend of scoring more tries than they make line breaks was unsustainable – and we were right (over their last 2 weeks, they’ve scored 8 tries compared to 11 line breaks, returning the ratio to almost exactly their season average). However, that hasn’t been why they’ve been losing.  Rather, the reason for the Broncos’ recent stumbles can be pointed to the reverse problem – that is, that they’ve been conceding unusually more tries than they’ve been conceding line breaks.

With it an established fact that over a large enough sample size, it’s rare to score more tries than you make line breaks (no team has done so this year; the Storm have the best ratio, having scored 9% less tries than they’ve made breaks); it naturally follows that it’s unusual for anyone to concede drastically more tries – however that’s exactly what’s happened to Brisbane. Though they’ve otherwise been reasonably good defensively over the past fortnight (both their LBCVOA and TBCVOA have been above average), they’ve somehow managed to lose because although they’ve allowed just 7 combined line breaks over two weeks, they’ve somehow conceded 11 tries.

So how did this happen? Against the Bulldogs, it was as simple as conceding 3 tries from kicks (though only the first was particularly unlucky), while against the Cowboys, the Jason Taumalolo try came from a freak error on a Darius Boyd kick return, while two more came from kicks – including the most outrageously unlucky bounce for Anthony Milford. Yes, Boyd’s positional play at fullback does leave them susceptible to a grubber behind the line, but regardless, they’d be unlucky if this trend continues; and if it stops, they’re in with a big shout here.

The Rabbitohs’ backline has been decimated beyond recognition, and it showed in their offensive performance last weekend. Though we acknowledge that they were facing the best defense in the league, the Rabbitohs’ 2 line breaks was nonetheless the least they’ve made since Round 2, and came despite a wealth of possession (55%) and a dominant display from their forwards (5 of whom made over 100m, including a phenomenal 222m effort by Tom Burgess). If they can’t get much going under conditions like that, they’re not likely to be any more favourable here, where the Broncos are effectively playing for their season (remember, they’re only 1 win clear of Wests, and have a date with the league-leading Roosters next week).

The Rabbitohs’ offense will no doubt be better this weekend for having spent the week working on their new combinations, however, the question is how much better they’ll be. We fancy the Broncos have a few points in them here, and if they can just have a bit more luck on defense, we’ll back them in for the upset.

Our tip: Broncos

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2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 96/160 (60%)

Line Betting: 35/70 (50%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)

NRL Round 22 Tips and Previews

Cowboys v Broncos

Offense VOA: Cowboys -22.72% (15th), Broncos 8.45% (4th)

Defense VOA: Cowboys 3.25% (10th), Broncos -7.44% (5th)

Though most of the rugby league world was reeling in shock last weekend at the Broncos’ upset loss to the Bulldogs, you can’t count us at The Obstruction Rule among them. While we admittedly tipped the Broncos, we did mention the threat of a potential boilover due to the Broncos’ offense’s recent over-performance.

Put simply: the Broncos attack simply isn’t as good as their production would suggest. Over the previous fortnight, the Broncos had scored  double the number of tries to line breaks (10 v 5), an aberration that created the appearance of a high-flying offense, while being completely unsustainable over a large enough sample size (for context, across the entire season no team in the league has scored more tries than line breaks, period). Further, with the Broncos’ own line break production being typically highly dependent on individual brilliance due to the lack of assists from their spine (no Broncos spine player ranks higher than 10th in the league for their position in assists), it’s looked likely that a correction was coming (and what a correction it was).

That being said, does that automatically mean that the Cowboys will be able to repeat the Bulldogs’ effort here at home? It’s certainly possible, but we’d stop short of calling it likely. The Cowboys’ effort against the Roosters was easily one of their best performances of the season, yet they still lost. Though the Broncos’ attack has underwhelmed us of late, the Cowboys’ has been appallingly bad all year, and depends on earning a good share of possession just to be competitive. Though much has been made of the Cowboys’ unbelievable 97% completion rate last weekend, it’s worth remembering that the Broncos have made the least number of errors all season, while the Cowboys have made the most. If either team is likely to turn in a monster completion rate this week, it probably isn’t the Cowboys.

And without a stack of ball, we’re just not sold on the Cowboys’ ability to score points. The Broncos’ mightn’t be as good as most believe, but for now, we’re still convinced that they’re at least better than the Cowboys. That said, we also thought they’d sneak home against the Bulldogs, and we were wrong about that.

Our tip: Broncos

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2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 93/152 (61%)

Line Betting: 34/67 (51%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)

NRL Round 21 Tips and Previews

Bulldogs v Broncos

Offense VOA: Bulldogs -15.28% (12th), Broncos 9.71% (4th)

Defense VOA: Bulldogs 0.97% (9th), Broncos -7.69% (5th)

Hats off to the Bulldogs – though their management effectively gave up on the season when they sold off Moses Mbye and Aaron Woods, the team has done anything but; and were rewarded last weekend with a well-earned victory.

Yes, the Tigers were rubbish – they had the same disjointed look to their offense as they did through the season’s opening three months – but on paper, this was a game that the Bulldogs had no right to win. It’d take the most cold-hearted rugby league fan to not wear a small smile at the sight of the Bulldogs scrapping their way to victory. That win alone may save them from the Wooden Spoon, and rightly so – they’ve played the season with too much spirit to finish below some of the pea-hearted sides below them.

Now, they get a sterner test in the form of the Broncos, although we’re not about to write them off altogether. After having their defense repeatedly torched for 4 weeks in a row (they conceded 30 line breaks in 4 weeks between Rounds 15-18), the Bulldogs have done really well over the past fortnight, conceding just 2 line breaks and 3 tries over their past 2 matches combined. Even more impressively, both of those 1 line break efforts came against opponents who’d made 6 the week prior (the Eels against the Knights, and the Tigers against the Rabbitohs). It’s only a very small sample size, but there’s an argument that the Bulldogs’ defense has been among the best in the league over the past two weeks.

And here they’ll be facing a Broncos offense that in truth has been struggling for traction over the past 3 weeks, despite running up a half century against Penrith. After being held to 1 try by the Warriors, the Broncos got more than half their points against the Panthers via intercepts, chip-and-chases and a penalty goal (or to put it differently, unreliable points), and then their offense earned just 1 try against the Sharks (their other came from an intercept, once again). Over that period they have a LBVOA of -37.85%, which would put them last in the competition. The point we’re making is that while they’ve been winning games, we’re expecting a negative regression at some point for their offense.

The question we’re most interested in though, is whether or not that negative regression comes here. To that end, we’re not quite comfortable taking the Bulldogs head-to-head (though at $3.70, we think they’re generously priced). Holding us back is the fact that as bad as we’re arguing the Broncos’ offense is, the Bulldogs’ isn’t any better. Since punting Mbye and Woods, the Bulldogs’ own offense has a LBVOA of -29.04%, and unlike the Broncos, they don’t have the individual talent of guys like James Roberts and Anthony Milford to compensate for a lack of effectiveness in their structured attack (while Will Hopoate is the only Bulldogs player with more than 37 tackle breaks, the Broncos side has six).

It’s that opportunistic ability to find points when they need it that has us backing the Broncos in here, but we think it’s far closer than the bookies have it, and we wouldn’t be completely shocked if we saw a boilover.

Our tip: Broncos

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2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 89/144 (62%)

Line Betting: 31/62 (50%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)

NRL Round 20 Tips and Previews

Broncos v Sharks

Offense VOA: Broncos 13.31% (3rd), Sharks 3.55% (6th)

Defense VOA: Broncos -4.76% (7th), Sharks -14.21% (3rd)

The opening match of the round is shaping up as a real barn-burner, with the Broncos coming off a 32-point demolition of the Panthers, while the Sharks were fortunate to squeak home against the Raiders.

The Broncos have been installed as favourites for this outing, as you’d typically expect of a team who just posted 50 points against a fellow premiership contender. That said, we don’t believe that the scoreline in any way reflected that game (or how the Broncos have been traveling). Yes, the Broncos racked up a half-century. However, we’re not interested in how many points they happened to score; we’re more interested in how replicable those points are. And by that measure, the answer is (for the most part) “not very”. If we go back and look at how that match played out, we’ll find that over half the Broncos points came from fluky, against-the-run-of-play occurrences. They scored 2 converted tries from intercepts, 2 converted tries from chip-and-chases, and kicked a penalty goal from a bizarre ruling that James Maloney should have wrapped the kicker while going for a charge-down (why would he complete a tackle he wasn’t trying to make?). That accounts for 26 of their points, none of which you can reasonably expect them to repeat with any sort of reliability. Of course, they would still have won without them; but a scoreline of 24-18 looks very different to the opportunistic demolition that we witnessed on Friday night.

Which is important, as the inflated scoreline has done a lot to mask the obvious problems with the Broncos that they still have yet to fix. Their spine continues to struggle to generate line breaks (though they had 4 against the Panthers, their spine combined for just 1 assist), which leaves them needing either trick plays or brilliant individual efforts to generate points. Fortunately, they’re stacked for talent in that regard, but it’s worth noting that the Sharks rank 3rd in both TBCVOA and LBCVOA – suggesting that defensive lapses aren’t likely to be easy to come by.

Similarly, the Broncos recent struggles to stop opposition run metres reared it’s ugly head again, with the Panthers ultimately outgaining the Broncos, despite possessing just 48% of the ball. As we suggested in last week’s preview, a good chunk of that damage was done down the Broncos’ right edge, with Waqa Blake and Viliame Kikau combining for 2 line breaks, a try, a try assist, and 240 metres at 10 metres/carry. Once again, the Broncos will be trotting out Tevita Pangai Jr on that edge; and once again, they’ll be facing an elite edge forward – this time, it’ll be Wade Graham, who turned in a try, a line break, and 112 metres against the Raiders, despite only playing the first half.

Finally, if there’s a knock on the Sharks recent form, it’d be on their defense; however, we’re expecting those numbers to quickly improve. Though their 24 points and 5 line breaks conceded don’t look great, it’s worth noting that a) the Raiders offense is awesome; and b) nearly all the damage was done in the second half, down the Sharks’ left edge – where Graham should have been defending, but wasn’t. With Graham returning (who’s conceded just 4 line breaks all season from 13 matches), as well as Luke Lewis reclaiming his place on the right edge (who’s conceded 2 from 8), there’s certainly reason enough to expect the Sharks’ edges to be at their water-tight best once again, after a scrappy past couple of weeks.

And if their defense is tight, then they should be OK. Though the Broncos won their last meeting 20-16, we should remember that the Sharks actually ran in 9 line breaks that day, and scored the same number of tries (3). If they can continue to generate those sorts of opportunities (and they have been, averaging 8 breaks per game over the past fortnight), we can reasonably expect them to score more tries; and from there, the Broncos are going to need a whole lot more intercepts if they’re going to keep up.

Our tip: Sharks

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2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 83/136 (61%)

Line Betting: 28/59 (47%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)

NRL Round 19 Tips and Previews

Eels v Bulldogs

Offense VOA: Eels -23.32% (14th), Bulldogs -9.88% (12th)

Defense VOA: Eels 11.26% (12th), Bulldogs 11.81% (13th)

You may have glanced at the draw, seen tonight’s battle for the wooden spoon, and thought to yourself, “seems like a good time to do my tax return”. And you know what? We don’t blame you. With just 7 combined wins between them (the Knights alone have 7 wins, and they’re coming 11th), you could easily assume that tonight’s clash will be a complete waste of time, not even enjoyed by the people involved, or their immediate families. Fair enough. But we’re here to offer a different point of view.

Sure, the Eels and Bulldogs are both suffering their way through bad seasons, but – relatively speaking – they’re both in reasonably good form (we acknowledge that “good form” for either side is probably just losing by 1-12, but they’ve both at least hit that mark in 2 of their last 3 games, AND they’ve both won a game within the last month. That’s not bad, right?!).  Despite possessing two of the most disappointing offenses of 2018, they’ve both scored 11 tries in their past 3 games, courtesy of an uptick in line breaks; the Bulldogs LBVOA over their past 3 games has improved from -13.50% to -3.25%, while the Eels have seen an even more significant improvement, jumping from their season average of -22.19% (dead last) to +5.79% over the same period.

For Parramatta, that’s an improvement that can be rationally explained – it’s a period in which they’ve finally seen the return of Jarryd Hayne, Mitchell Moses and Corey Norman from various absences, and Clint Gutherson switched to fullback (in short, their spine and backline is finally at full strength). It’s a popular opinion these days to hang shit on Hayne for being rubbish, but he remains the most dangerous ball runner in the Parramatta squad, and the effect he has on their attack is undeniable (he’s only played 8 games, yet ranks 2nd on the team in line breaks, and 5th in try involvements).

For Canterbury, it’s a bit more surprising though. Their improvement has coincided with the removal of their best attacking player (Moses Mbye), as well as the supremely-gifted Aaron Woods. Trying to explain their improvement is not as easy. There’s been so much change over that period – Will Hopoate has taken over at fullback, Lachlan Lewis and Jeremy Marshall-King are the new halves, while Rhyse Martin has been a revelation in the second-row – it can be hard to determine where to attribute the responsibility. Let’s take a look.

For a start, it’s NOT the halves. Since being united three weeks ago, Lewis and Marshall-King have combined for just 2 tries, 2 try assists, 1 line break, and 2 line break assists between them. Those would be average numbers for one NRL quality half over that period, let alone two (for comparison, Corey Norman – who’s apparently so shit that the Eels don’t even want him back next year – has 1 try, 3 try assists and 3 line breaks assists over the same period, by himself). So that’s out. Next, Hopoate has been excellent at fullback. He’s been rolling along making solid contributions from the back; there’s just one problem with that theory though – as good as he’s been, it’s hard to argue that he’s been better than Mbye. Hopoate has made more assists (per game) than Mbye, but also makes significantly less line breaks and tackle breaks, so at best, that’s probably a wash.

Which finally brings us to Martin. Like Hayne for Parramatta, Martin’s numbers over a short period of time are impressive. Besides his obvious feast of tries against the Raiders a few weeks back, Martin ranks 2nd on the team for line breaks (despite having played just 7 games), and has the 2nd highest metres-per-carry among Bulldogs forwards. We love Martin. We just don’t love pinning our hopes on a second-rower tearing it up.

If both sides have a superstar out wide, the difference is likely to come from the spine – and if that’s the case, it’s not even a contest. The Eels’ playmakers mightn’t have been great this year, but they’ve been looking alright lately – which is more than could be said for their Bulldogs equivalents (Hopoate excepted).

Our tip: Eels

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