2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 95/128 (74%) (Last week: 5/8)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Panthers
• Knights
• Storm
• Titans
• Tigers
• Roosters
• Eels
• Dragons

Notes

• It’s no secret that the Broncos have been terrible this year, but generally speaking, their issues have been primarily on the defensive side of the ball. After re-shuffling the deck again last weekend and rolling out a Sean O’Sullivan/Tom Deardon halves combination, they somehow managed to butcher their offense as well. The changes resulted in a clunky, error-riddled effort (their 12 errors was their 4th-worst performance of the season) that produced their lowest LBVOA since their 48-0 spanking at the hands of the Tigers in Round 10. Though they’ll surely be better for the run (and the addition of Payne Haas), it gets no easier for them against the league’s 2nd-best defense. Worse still, Brisbane’s trash defense that just got lit up by the Roosters for 12 line breaks and 10 tries, now has to face a Panthers offense that’s made 5 or more line breaks in 7 of the past 8 weeks, and is bolstered by the addition of Viliame Kikau. We may well be reaching through the record books for “most points conceded in a two-week period” by half-time.
• What has happened to the Knights’ attack? After having been one of the most effective offenses in the league through the first 14 weeks, they’ve come to a grinding halt over the past fortnight, creating just 5 line breaks and 3 tries combined against a pair of Bottom 8 defenses (North Queensland and New Zealand). So what’s different? It would be easy to point to the absence of Bradman Best as a reason, were it not for the fact that he was also out for the two weeks prior, in which they ran up totals of 44 and 26 against Manly and Wests. Similarly, you may point to the absence of Daniel Saifiti, however his previous four-week absence was actually the Knights’ highest four-week period for LBVOA of the season (24.93%). Instead, we’d suggest the issue has just been a lack of involvement from their best player, Kalyn Ponga. Ponga’s 28 receipts last weekend were his fewest in any game this year, while the week prior he had his 5th-fewest touches. With Ponga leading his team in try assists, try involvements, line breaks and line break assists, it should go without saying that the more he touches the ball, the better for Newcastle. Since the more time they spend with the ball the more opportunities he’ll have to touch it, step one is winning the possession count. Though the Knights are generally very good for ball-handling (they have the 3rd-fewest errors in the NRL), they can be prone to giving away high penalty counts. Indeed, last weekend, their 12 total penalties conceded resulted in a miniscule 37% possession share, leaving them virtually no chance of winning the contest. Back at home this week, we’re expecting that to improve. Further, they should also win the error count, given they’ve made 8 or fewer errors in 7 matches so far – a mark Cronulla have hit just twice.
• That said, we’re certainly not ruling out the Sharks. With Newcastle recently struggling for points, Cronulla should be liking their chances. However, they’re certainly not without flaws of their own – Cronulla own the 2nd-worst defense in the league, and so appear well-placed to play the Knights’ offense into a little bit of form. To their credit, Cronulla’s defensive effort last weekend was actually their best showing since Round 4. However, that should be put into context. First, the Cowboys threw absolutely nothing at Cronulla – their 2 offloads in an entire game of footy is the lowest recorded this year. Second, despite being one of the Sharks’ best defensive efforts of the season, their LBCVOA of -2.16% for that game has been bettered by Newcastle in all but 3 matches this season. So the question is this: what is more likely – that the Knights offense can return to their season average level (in which case, they should run up a score), or the Sharks defense improves even further, despite already being at their season peak? In tipping Newcastle, we’re guessing that both sides regress towards their season averages, but we can understand people arguing otherwise.
• Nobody in their right mind would have tipped the Rabbitohs this week anyway, but we just want to highlight what a huge loss Latrell Mitchell will be for the Bunnies. Fact: the 2 games Mitchell missed earlier in the season are the only 2 games the Rabbitohs have lost since Round 8. They’re also the team’s two lowest scores in that period (12 and 18), and include the team’s lowest and 4th-lowest LBVOA since Round 6. Quite simply, without Mitchell, their offense didn’t look the same, and struggled badly to create tries. That said, we expect to see more change in their offensive structure this time around. Though it’ll still be Alex Johnston taking Latrell’s place, the difference is that this time, they know Mitchell is gone for the year. There were never going to be wholesale changes to the side’s attacking structure last time, knowing Mitchell would be back in a fortnight. Now, though, they don’t have a choice. As the league-leader in line break assists, the Rabbitohs’ running game was built entirely around Mitchell, and to put it bluntly, Johnston simply doesn’t have the playmaking skill-set to fill that role. As a result, the team will need to adjust their attacking shapes, and will likely lean on Cody Walker to pick up the slack. This isn’t hopeless, but it’s going to take time – and a single week before playing the league’s best defense is unlikely to be enough.
• Long-time readers will have heard this before: where line breaks are, tries will soon follow. You can often spot an incoming offensive breakout before it happens by identifying a team with huge line break numbers but an oddly low try tally. The Titans look like the perfect such candidate. Over the past four weeks, they’ve created an incredible 38 line breaks (most in the league), yet have scored just 15 tries (8th). This try-to-line break ratio (0.39) is absurdly low (after the Titans, the next lowest such ratio is 0.71), and will almost inevitably correct itself. And there’s no better team to face for such a correction than the Bulldogs, who concede the most tries per line break in the league (0.91). Should this ratio fall somewhere in the middle here, we’d expect the Titans to have about 4 tries in them – a total the Bulldogs have only reached twice all year. In short, we quite like the Titans, and think they’re well priced.
• The great big mystery game of Week 17 will see the Sea Eagles host the Tigers at Lottoland. Both these sides have seen their defenses fall off a cliff over the past month or so. In the case of Manly, they’ve lost 5 straight, conceding 26+ on each occasion. Typically, their issues begin with bad field position (they were outgained by at least 299m in 4 of those losses), from which they either get beaten via line breaks, or kicks in behind their wingers. With a makeshift backline on tap here (Reuben Garrick has joined the rest of their starters on the sideline), we’d suggest the edges are the place to attack – rookie Albert Hopoate was abused by the Storm last week, leaking 3 breaks in a single game of footy. He’ll be targeted this week by Wests’ left edge, Leuciano Leilua and Adam Douehi (who just quietly are 33rd and 8th in the league for tackle breaks). But are we confident picking the Tigers? Oh gosh, no. It’s hard to feel confident when Wests have been every bit as ordinary. Like Manly, they too have won just 1 of their last 6, and are now on a 6-game streak conceding 26+. However, unlike the Sea Eagles, Wests have at least shown some aptitude with the footy. While Manly have registered 3 or fewer line breaks for 3 weeks on the trot, to find 3 such occasions for Wests you’d have to go all the way back to Round 5. Though we completely understand the inclination to back Manly, if we’re being honest, it seems more like a tip built on reputation than anything they’ve done on the field – and when you look at their team list, you’ll realise that what they’re trotting out looks very little like the Manly you remember.
• You may recall that the last time the Raiders and Roosters met, Canberra pulled Sydney’s pants down with a huge upset, the week after losing Josh Hodgson to an ACL tear. That loss marked the start of a pretty ordinary 5-week stretch for Sydney, in which they dropped 2 games, and managed unconvincing wins over Bottom-8 sides the Titans, Warriors and Dragons. However, they’re playing a lot better now. Through that five-week period, the Roosters averaged a woeful LBVOA of -17.30%; in the two weeks since? 135.44%. Now, they’re getting back Luke Keary and Angus Crichton, and debuting Sonny Bill Williams. We’re not expecting another boilover here.
• Though they keep surprising us, we’re tipping the other shoe to finally drop for the Warriors this week. Not because their opponent is traveling particularly well; if anything, the Eels have been dreadful for the past month or so. Rather, we think they’ll finally fall victim to their dire player shortage. In scenes reminiscent of Australia recalling Paul Reiffel to carry the drinks against Australia A back in the 94/95 summer of cricket, the Eels have recalled George Jennings and Daniel Alvaro for this clash, but won’t actually be using them. For the record, we don’t blame Parramatta one bit – they’ve been doing the Warriors a huge favour, and with their Top 4 spot teetering, it’s a no-brainer that they don’t want to see their own players used against them. But they’re big outs. Jennings, for example, has been in career-best form – he sits 3rd on the Warriors for line breaks, despite having made just 5 appearances. Similarly, Alvaro has been a useful addition to a side light on for forwards, sitting 2nd in the team for tackle efficiency, and making just a single error in 5 games. Gerard Beale is an enormous downgrade from Jennings offensively, and the side are so light for middles that they couldn’t even name 21 healthy players on Tuesday. Even allowing for losing Dylan Brown to injury, if Parramatta can’t win this one, they might as well give it away.
• There are plenty of reasons why the Cowboys are terrible, with the most obvious ones being on the defensive side of the ball. But with the loss of Jason Taumalolo, the Cows may be in just as big a hole on offense, too. Without Taumalolo against the Sharks, the Cows registered an unimpressive -7.08% RMVOA (good enough to be the worst in the league), on their way to getting outgained by 422m. With limited field position and a shocking inefficiency at generating line breaks (their 4 was the equal-fewest the Sharks have conceded since Round 2), it’s little wonder they were held to just 12 points. With the Cowboys boasting the worst defense in the league, any questions at all about their offense makes them virtually impossible to tip.

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2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 90/120 (75%) (Last week: 7/8)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Eels
• Dragons
• Roosters
• Knights
• Sharks
• Panthers
• Storm
• Raiders

Notes

• We kick off Round 16 with a pretty clear “game of the week”. In a round littered with Top 8 vs Bottom 8 clashes, a match-up between a pair of likely finals-bound sides should be the highlight. Of course, a competitive match does not necessarily equal a “good” match. This game should come with a disclaimer that there’s every chance the action will be stifled, interrupted, and have many minutes lost while blokes mill around packing scrums. The Eels and Rabbitohs enter this clash as the 2nd and 4th worst offenders in terms of errors, with Parramatta in particular currently in the middle of a 7-game stretch of matches in which they’ve made double-digit errors – a streak exceeded only by the extraordinarily clumsy Titans and Cowboys. This observation lends itself to a pretty obvious question – if they keep turning the ball over, how on earth are they still winning? The answer here is: with a lot of help. The following is their Total Penalties conceded per game over that period (Total Penalty count is the sum of blown penalties and set restarts), working backwards:
  • 4 (vs 11)
  • 7 (vs 7)
  • 4 (vs 11)
  • 7 (vs 9)
  • 4 (vs 11)
  • 7 (vs 12)
  • 14 (vs 8)

Looking at the above, one thing sticks out – Parramatta have benefited from some ridiculously lop-sided penalty counts. Only twice in seven weeks have they not won the count, and unsurprisingly, one of those was a loss (against the Dragons a fortnight ago). The takeaway here is that when we get to the finals and referees become less inclined to to intervene in the game, the Eels are likely to be in some strife. Despite being gifted bucket-loads of extra sets, they’ve still only won 5 of these 7 outings, and with an average margin of just 6 points. We’re not expecting anything to suddenly change on Thursday night at BankWest, but it does illustrate how much assistance they’ve received on their way to one of the least impressive Top-4 berths in recent memory. Combining an expected friendly penalty count with a clear advantage in go-forward (the Eels dominate Souths in RMVOA 7.60% vs -0.39%), we’re expecting to see plenty of Parra attacking the Rabbits’ line – and that’s bad news for South Sydney. The Rabbitohs’ goal-line defense is their defensive Achilles’ Heel, particularly on their left edge, where Campbell Graham has become a target (his 13 line breaks conceded is the 12th-most in the NRL). Expect to see Parramatta heading that way, and Waqa Blake to have a decent showing.

• While the Thursday game is the only match-up between Top 8 teams, the early Friday game is the only one between two Bottom 8 teams. Like the game above, this has the potential to be interesting, but mainly due to the incredibly wide range of potential outcomes. At some point or another you need to give the Titans credit, and after producing 30 line breaks in three weeks (including 8 against the typically solid Raiders), their offense is clearly doing something right. Here, they get to face a Dragons side that’s leaked 5+ line breaks in 4 of their last 5, suggesting the Gold Coast should be good for something like 4-5 LBs here themselves, which would result in something like 3 tries. So, why aren’t we tipping them? Because their defense is so bad that 3 tries would have only been enough for them to win in 3 of their 15 matches so far. In every other match they’ve conceded 18+ points, and against a St George-Illawarra side who’ve scored 4+ tries in 5 of their past 7, it’s hard to make a strong argument for that changing here. That said, there’s a non-zero chance that the Dragons’ D flounders (they looked pretty iffy against Brisbane), in which case it could be the Titans who run up a score. We expect the Dragons to get it, but it’s not a formality.
• The Roosters are back, baby. We’d been waiting six weeks for them to awaken from their mid-season slumber, and they did so with a roar last weekend against the Tigers (or, perhaps more appropriately, with a cock-a-doodle-doo). They recorded season-highs in LBVOA (158.30%) and RMVOA (20.95%), and their 2nd-best number of the year for TBVOA (52.21%) in their thumping victory, which was all the more impressive given the absence of star half Luke Keary. Against the league’s 3rd-worst defense, it’d take a very brave punter to tip against a strong encore performance.
• The Warriors kept the dream alive last weekend, but we weren’t terribly taken by anything they produced. They managed enough opportunistic tries to get the job done, but there were still a few ominous signs for their defense that are impossible to ignore. For example, their inability to limit Canterbury’s yardage throughout the first half was concerning, particularly considering the low calibre of opponent. This improved in the second half (largely because Canterbury were starting their sets in difficult positions), but the match still resulted in the Dogs’ 6th-highest yardage total of the year, and the first game all season in which they’ve made over 1500m while losing the possession count. This is concerning for New Zealand because of the opponent they have coming up: the Knights rank 2nd in the league for RMVOA (7.40%), and are coming off an outing in which they put over 1900m on North Queensland. As a result, we fully expect the Warriors to get smoked for yardage, which bodes poorly for them: in the 9 games this year in which they’ve been outgained, they’ve lost 8, by an average margin of 22.75. Which leads us to our other observation – after a strong start to the season, New Zealand are beginning to hemorrhage line breaks, giving up another 5 against Canterbury, marking the 4th week in a row in which they’ve conceded 5 or more. Put simply, if you leak line breaks in your own red zone, they will lead to tries. If you spend most of the game in your own red zone, while leaking 5+ line breaks, you will concede a lot of tries. Ergo, their current defensive trendline suggests that the Knights could be in for an offensive feast this weekend.
• With the two worst defenses in the league going head-to-head on a warm Saturday evening, it’s fair to say that we love the overs for the Sharks/Cowboys game (even at the relatively high total of 44.5). So far in 2020, matches between any combination of the Bottom 4 defenses have seen overall points totals completely within the range of 40-62, with an average total of 46.9. Additionally, those figures are dragged down by Cronulla’s slow start to the year, before their offense really got humming. Since Round 6, they’ve accounted for 20+ points on their own in 8 of 10 matches, and cracked 30+ in 5 of them. Coupled with the Sharks’ hilariously awful defense, it’s no surprise that within games in which they’ve scored 20, the overall points total has averaged a ludicrous 56 points per game. As for the winner, the Sharks’ O is certainly better equipped to win a shoot-out, and should be the difference here. But it should be a lot of fun.
• Like hit 90s rom-com Pretty Woman, it’ll be a contrasting tale of two hookers when the Panthers host the Tigers on Saturday night. For Penrith, it’ll be Mitch Kenny holding the fort while Api Koroisau rests his calf. The loss of Api shouldn’t be underestimated – in his only prior absence this year (Week 11 vs the Titans), the Panthers recorded their lowest RMVOA and 3rd-lowest LBVOA of the season. Kenny is a sound defender and honest toiler, but is a significant downgrade creatively with the ball. The loss of Koroisau and star second-rower Viliame Kikau has us downgrading our expectations for the Panthers’ otherwise red-hot offense. Conversely, it’s fair to expect the Tigers to look a little bit sharper with hooker Harry Grant returning from injury. The difference may only be slight, but it’s notable that in games with Grant at hooker, the Tigers’ LBVOA climbs to 9.29%, vs 1.86% without him. Head-to-head, Grant is unquestionably the better of the two hookers we’ll see on Saturday night, but if we learnt anything from Julia Roberts’ Roy Orbison montage, it’s that a hooker’s value changes considerably based on their outfit – and here the difference is stratospheric. While Kenny gets to feed the ball to the league leader in try involvements (Nathan Cleary) and two Top-6 players in try assists (Cleary and Jarome Luai), Grant is stuck providing service to Benji Marshall (a respectable 9th in try involvements) and… Luke Brooks? (A less respectable 59th in try assists.) And that’s before we even get to their respective defenses. The Tigers have fallen off a cliff on that side of the ball, recording a LBCVOA of 31.10% over the past 5 weeks (2nd-worst in the league) on their way to averaging over 32 points conceded per game. In contrast, the Panthers have yet to concede that many points in any game all year. So while Grant may be special, if you think Penrith can’t get it done just because our boy Kenny looks a little rough around the edges, you could be making a big mistake. Huge.
• You can’t get a more spectacular list of “ins” than that of the Storm this week – Cameron Smith, Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes and Jesse Bromwich have all parachuted into Melbourne’s team just in time to face a Sea Eagles side coming off one of the most embarrassing efforts in club history. After a down week offensively, we’re expecting the Storm’s attack to immediately improve, and drive the final nail into the coffin of a Manly side who’ve leaked 5+ tries in their past 4 consecutive games.
• We don’t often write much about the Bulldogs (it requires very little analysis to recognise that they aren’t very good), however after erroneously tipping them to win last weekend (sorry), we feel it’s worth pointing out the two most obvious areas in which they need to improve. First, though their defense is generally decent, they have a curious habit of failing to get more than 2 players involved in each tackle. Though this may just be laziness, it happens often enough that we’re inclined to believe it’s been coached – and it has to stop. Failing to get a third man in unsurprisingly affects their ability to control the ruck, resulting in plenty of quick play-the-balls, and opposition sides getting to attack a retreating defensive line. What effect does this have? Well, it’s the primary reason for their league-worst RMCVOA (7.44%), and leaves them susceptible to conceding line breaks (due to the reduced time to get set). Teams with elite RMCVOAs (Melbourne and Penrith, for example) religiously get three men in, and the results speak for themselves. Second, the Bulldogs are SLOW. Typically, teams that create more line breaks score more tries, but that oddly doesn’t apply to Canterbury, who rank a distant last in tries scored. They’ve had no issue creating scoring opportunities, however they lack the speed and polish to do anything with them. The primary culprit in this regard is winger Nick Meaney. Meaney ranks 9th among NRL wingers for line breaks, yet somehow finds himself 26th for try involvements. Hopefully the arrival of Nic Cotric next season means Canterbury fans are no longer subjected to the slow-twitch muscle fibers of Meaney, but still, a backline featuring Will Hopoate, Kerrod Holland and Marcelo Montoya is hardly exciting. No wonder they have their eye on Penrith’s Ferrari, Charlie Staines.

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2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 83/112 (74%) (Last week: 7/8)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Eels
• Panthers
• Dragons
• Raiders
• Roosters
• Rabbitohs
• Bulldogs
• Knights

Notes

• It is with a heavy heart that we find ourselves begrudgingly forced to tip the Eels this week. Please allow us to make one thing clear – Parramatta are not on Melbourne’s level. They belong more appropriately in the Canberra/Newcastle range, and on form, would probably lose to them as well. However, injuries and suspension have combined to turn this game on its head. A week ago, the Storm pulled one out of the drawer to thump the Roosters without both their superstar Camerons. At a glance, this would lend support to the notion that they could do the same to Parramatta (who, as we’ve mentioned, are worse than the Roosters). However, this isn’t apples to apples. For a start, a huge factor in the Storm’s win was the dominance of their forward pack. The outgained the Roosters by almost 300m on the night, generated largely by having six different forwards run for over 100m (for context, the Roosters had just three). However, two things are significantly different here. One, two of those forwards – Jesse Bromwich and Dale Finucane – are now out, due to suspension and injury, respectively. Two, that was effectively a reserve-grade Roosters pack. Here, they’ll be facing an Eels engine room that’s essentially at 100% – and is arguably the equal of Melbourne’s anyway. Yes, Melbourne’s run defense is the envy of the league, with a RMCVOA of -10.63% (a distant 1st). But Parramatta actually hold a significant advantage when it comes to metres gained, owning a RMVOA of 6.41% (3rd), vs the Storm’s -0.93% (9th). In short, we would expect the Eels’ ability to generate metres to counterbalance the Storm’s knack for defending them – and that’s before considering the loss of the two key middles. And without the dominant territorial advantage they enjoyed last weekend, how confident can we be that the Storm will generate points? This is the big question mark, and where we have to err on the conservative side. Though they barely missed a beat last week without Munster and Smith, the expectation that Jahrome Hughes will be a late scratching has tipped us over the edge. Hughes put the team on his back last week, producing 1 try, 1 try assist, and 2 line breaks. On the season, he’s 1st on the team for try involvements (20). Should Hughes sit out, the Storm will have a combined 32 line break assists sitting on the sideline (for perspective, the lowly Warriors have 38 line breaks for the season… total). Control of their offense will be turned over to the superbly average Ryley Jacks, who has just 3 try involvements in 6 appearances. Finally, though the two sides’ head-to-head record heavily favours Melbourne, it is illuminating to look back to the last time Parramatta beat Melbourne, in 2017. On that day, the Storm were missing their complete spine (seems familiar), a handful of key forwards (Jordan Maclean, Cameron Welch and Tim Glasby), were marshaled around the field by Ryley Jacks (oh dear) and were objectively a better team than Parramatta for the season – they would go on to win their next 10 straight on the way to winning the Grand Final; Parramatta would be bundled out in the finals in straight sets. Everything about this feels like history repeating.
• We suspect the Sharks will be devastated to see Brian To’o back for the Panthers. In addition to his powerful running giving a further boost to the start of Penrith’s sets (To’o remains 2nd among Panthers outside backs for hit-ups, despite having missed 6 games, and packs an incredible 10 metres-per-carry – 5th in the league among wingers), it will also facilitate Brent Naden shuffling in to the centres. Though you may have forgotten how beastly Naden is as a three-quarter, we’re confident the Sharks haven’t – the last time they met, Naden ripped them a new one, contributing 1 try, 1 try assist, 5 tackle breaks, 1 line break and 2 line break assists. Coming off an outing in which Cronulla got obliterated for 11 line breaks by a Gold Coast team ranked 2nd last for LBVOA, the idea that Penrith’s somehow getting stronger ought to put the fear of God into them. After a slowish week against New Zealand, we fully expect Penrith to put the throttle down at home.
• We mentioned last week that the Norman/Clune/Hunt spine combination has been the Dragons’ strongest, but even we were shocked to see them pull off the upset against Parramatta. The challenge here will be to back it up against a team they should most definitely beat. The Broncos will see Payne Haas and Thomas Flegler join Matt Lodge and Tevita Pangai Jr on the sidelines, leaving them with a patchwork forward pack to lay the foundation for their misfiring backline. Their offense has had its moments, but their under-strength engine room gets dominated every week (they’ve been outgained in 12 of their 14 matches, including their last 5 in a row). Against a Dragons pack that’s posted 1500m+ in their past 3 straight (a mark Brisbane have hit just twice all season), they’re on a hiding to nothing. Checking St George-Illawarra’s draw, this may be an opportunity for the Dragons to go on a little bit of a run.
• Don’t look now, but over the past fortnight only one team has made double-digit line breaks in a game: and it’s the Titans. And they’ve done it twice. Now, that should come with the disclaimer that over the past two weeks they’ve had the good fortune of facing the two worst defenses in football (the Sharks and Cowboys), but the point stands – as far as the Titans’ offense goes, they are unquestionably in the best form they’ve been in for years. Of course, we won’t be tipping them until we’ve seen them produce against a competent defense (and the Raiders are most definitely such a D), largely because their own defense remains prone to conceding huge volumes of points (they’ve conceded 20+ in 10 of 14 games so far, and haven’t conceded fewer than 4 line breaks in a game for 6 weeks). But, should they keep their current level of offensive production going, they might be able to rack up a few scores in coming weeks, with below-average defenses like Brisbane and Canterbury on the horizon.
• We’re somewhat surprised that there hasn’t been more interest in the Tigers this week, particularly after seeing the Roosters get hammered by a Cameron-less Melbourne side. The Roosters will now be without both Luke Keary and Lachlam Lam, a change that isn’t likely to see their sputtering offense improve. For the Roosters to win, it will need to be on the strength of their defense, not their offense. The Tigers have points to burn, but are developing the look of flat-track bullies: through 14 weeks, they’ve played just 6 games against Top 8-ranked defenses, for an average of 14.3 points-per-game; in the remaining 8 games against Bottom-8 defenses, that doubles to 28.5. We’re reasonably content to say that if the Roosters’ #3-ranked defense defends to its typical standard, they should have the points in them to get home, despite the halves shake-up (after all, prior to last week’s whooping, they’d scored 18 or more in their previous 11 straight games). But if the Roosters D lets up – even a little – the Tigers have proven themselves more than capable of punishing weak defensive efforts, and that would really test the Roosters’ ability to keep pace. We’re backing Sydney, but think the Tigers’ price is tempting.
• As expected, the loss of Addin Fonua-Blake and Marty Taupau saw the Sea Eagles return to their bad old ways, getting hammered for yardage by 299m (again). Perhaps the saddest part of that is that most viewers would argue that this was the best that many of their reserve forwards have played all season. If they hadn’t had to waste 14 hit-ups on a bloke making 6 metres-per-carry (looking at you, Plod), they very well might have won. Instead, it’s back to the drawing board, and another likely week spent scrapping to get out of their own end. Though it took a minor miracle for the Rabbitohs to get home against North Queensland, it’s worth noting that they did outperform their opponent in line breaks, tackle breaks and offloads and were largely under the pump due to poor field position (not likely to be a problem) and a lack of possession (they had just 44% of the ball, yet somehow managed a win – that’s actually quite the accomplishment). Should those issues disappear, Souths should have more than enough to handle Manly, who trail Souths in every offensive metric. Though Souths’ defense is admittedly vulnerable on the edges, a backline of Taufua-Parker-Suli-Funa hardly strikes fear in the hearts of opposing Ds (none have more than 7 line breaks – a mark exceeded by Alex Johnston, Dane Gagai and Cody Walker), and besides; the Sea Eagles susceptibility to kicks in behind them – especially Taufua, who has the turning circle of a semi-trailer – gives them a defense that be easily exposed by good coaching and Souths’ kicking game.
• The Sunday afternoon clash between the Bulldogs and Warriors looms as a potential match-of-the-round, at least from a competitiveness stand-point. Sure, neither side is in the middle of a particularly impressive season, but since punting their respective coaches, both sides have produced some improvement in results. Though it’s the Warriors who’ve grabbed the headlines under Todd Payten and been universally praised for their performances, we’re actually of the view that it’s Canterbury who are performing better. This is a difficult position to take – one is never filled with confidence tipping a team with just 2 wins on the season (oddly, the last time we did, it was backing the Warriors to upset Brisbane), however the numbers are reasonably firm. First, let’s talk about Canterbury. The first thing that should be pointed out is that they’re a lot better with Keiran Foran in the team. Their LBVOA is poor (-23.68%), but its artificially lower because of their awful performances in the opening rounds without Foran. Counting only the games in which Foran’s played, that number climbs to -14.73%. Again, this is ordinary, but it’s a long way better than the Warriors’ last-placed -34.73%. However, it’s also worth noting that Foran is coming back from a long lay-off. It would be reasonable to expect that Foran’s numbers would slowly improve as he gets his legs under him – and that’s exactly what’s happened. Through his first 5 games back, Foran produced just 1 try assist, but in his next 6, he produced another 9. Comparing these two periods, we unsurprisingly see a climb in LBVOA, from -19.33% in Foran’s first 5, to -10.90% since. Our point here is that there is a consistent pattern of improvement for the Bulldogs’ offense, and with the further boost of Will Hopoate’s return (Hopoate ranks 2nd in the team with 4 line break assists, despite having played just 7 matches), there’s no reason to think that shouldn’t continue. But is the same true of the Warriors? In a word: no. Though they have been improving, their LBVOA under Payten (-26.20%) remains worse than that of the Bulldogs, even if you include the period where Foran wasn’t playing. In the past three weeks, the Bulldogs have produced 5 line breaks twice; the Warriors have hit that mark once all season, and that was all the way back in Round 8. They don’t break the line, meaning that they’re typically forced to rely on kicks to generate points – a tactic that depends heavily on field position. But unfortunately, they lost their best forward, Jack Hetherington, to suspension a week ago – a development that resulted in them getting outgained by Penrith to the tune of 582m(!). This lack of punch in the forwards will only be further tested with the suspension of Eliesa Katoa, their forward leader in tackle breaks (19). With very little go-forward and zero attacking flair, we simply can’t make an argument to justify tipping New Zealand. It feels a bit yucky to tip the team running dead last, but if we’re being true to the numbers, we don’t see any choice – Canterbury are playing better.

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2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 76/104 (73%) (Last week: 6/8)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Storm
• Panthers
• Eels
• Sharks
• Rabbitohs
• Raiders
• Knights
• Tigers

Notes

• We’ve got to say: we strongly disagree with the bookies that the latest edition of the Roosters-Storm rivalry looks like an open-and-shut win for Sydney. To be frank, the Storm have been playing visibly better football than the Roosters for at least the last month (and there’s an argument that the Roosters have hardly played good footy lately at all). While Sydney were limping to unconvincing wins over competition weaklings like the Titans and Warriors (and losing to a Josh Hodgson-less Raiders team), the Storm have been thumping all comers. Their 41-10 win over Canterbury on the weekend was their 7th in a row; a period in which they’ve scored 20+ in every game, with an average winning margin of 23.9. There should be very little debate that along with Penrith, Melbourne have simply been on a different level to every other team in the competition. So how can they be written off so quickly? The answer lies in the two big Camerons missing from their team list: Munster and Smith. With Melbourne’s two best players out, the price has lurched towards Sydney – and the bookies may yet prove to be right. But we’re not sold. First, it seems odd to assume that Melbourne can’t beat the Roosters without Munster at 6 and Smith at 9 – particularly when they did exactly that barely over a month ago. Yes (for those of you with short memories), Munster missed the Storm’s 27-25 win over Sydney at the start of July, while Smith was giving a pretty average turn at halfback. Sure, they were massively helped by an error-riddled Roosters display (their 17 errors was their worst outing of the season), but the point stands – they did win. Secondly, though Smith will now be missing altogether, we shouldn’t ignore the outs on the other side of the ledger. Try this on for size: Daniel Tupou, Brett Morris, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Boyd Cordner and Angus Crichton are all missing from that team – a team that wasn’t good enough to win then. We’re not saying the Storm will definitely win – there are far too many question marks over both squads to say that with conviction. But, we are saying that the arguments for backing the Roosters look suspect at best. Their offense has looked bog average in any game that their pack hasn’t dominated, and given they’re deploying a reserve unit here against one of (if not the) best packs in the competition, we see no reason for that to change. That being the case, we’ll take the team with the better D, and who’s likely to enjoy the better field position. And that team is Melbourne.
• We wouldn’t have picked the Warriors anyway here, but we should point out what a big loss Jack Hetherington will be for New Zealand going forward. Since his arrival, he’s lifted his side’s RMVOA from -0.32% (9th) pre-Jack to 3.15% (5th) post-Jack, thanks almost entirely to his team-leading 9.22 metres-per-carry. On the back of that go-forward, New Zealand have won 3 of 6 matches since he arrived, after opening the season 2 from 7. The difference has been night-and-day, and there couldn’t be a worse time for them to lose him, with a match-up against one of the league’s best engine rooms coming up here. Given their offensive struggles, they would have been very little chance against an elite D such as the Panthers‘ (indeed, Penrith held them to 0 back in Round 4), but without their best forward, there’s now an additional risk that they get dominated for field position, exposing their D to an offense that’s scored 19+ for the past 8 weeks in a row.
• Apparently dropping Corey Norman didn’t work out, and so the Dragons will spin the team selection wheel once again this weekend (and, as it turns out, the coaching wheel). Having failed to capitalise on a strong showing by their forwards – St George got 92 or more metres out of every member of their starting pack, plus a further 60+ from each of their bench forwards – they’ve decided to roll out the Norman/Adam Clune combo this week. For those of you trying to keep track without pen-and-paper, this particular variation (with Ben Hunt at hooker) was previously used between Rounds 9-11, and resulted in 2 wins (a pretty good stretch for this side). We don’t hate this arrangement, and in general, actually think the Dragons are in with a shot here. However, we’re reluctant to pull the trigger due to a potential mismatch on the Dragons left edge, where Tyrell Fuimaono has been brought in to replace Tariq Sims. In case you aren’t familiar with Fuimaono’s career work so far, allow us to fill you in: through 4 seasons and 38 appearances, Fuimaono’s teams have a combined win rate of 34.21%, thanks largely to his bewilderingly bad defense (the 2018 Rabbitohs, for example, won 70% of games without him, but just 25% with him; the 2019 Panthers won 50% without him, but 29% with him). So far this year, his defensive stylings have seen him concede 6 line breaks (4th most on his team) and 4 tries, and he’s also added 7 errors for good measure (the most of any Dragons forward). Here, he’ll be up against the returning Ryan Matterson, who has so far provided 3 line break assists and 5 try involvements, helped largely by his 24 offloads (4th in the league). If we were the Eels, we’d be hitting this edge early and often, and it should be enough to get it done.
• The Titans are playing significantly better football of late, and deserve to be applauded for their improvement. However, in a battle between two dreadful defenses, they’re a long way out of their depth here. Consider this: last week against North Queensland was the first time they’ve scored more than 3 tries in a game since Round 7, and just the 3rd such occasion this year. In contrast, last week was the first time the Sharks haven’t scored more than 3 tries since Round 6, and it took playing a game of football in a kiddie pool in order to slow them down. We’re superbly confident that Cronulla have 4+ tries in them, at home against the league’s 3rd worst defense – and that ought to be enough.
• We stated in last week’s preview that we expected Michael Morgan to be the difference between the Cowboys and the Titans, and he was – by being the worst player on the field. Though it generally isn’t terribly difficult for teams to beat the Gold Coast, it gets a lot harder when you’re carrying a guy who makes 7 missed tackles and 3 errors in a single game of footy. He’ll be better for the run, but his defensive lapses don’t fill us with confidence, particularly ahead of a date with the league’s 5th ranked offense. Their attack should be better with the return of Scott Drinkwater, though he’s been something of an error-machine this season, too. Best to steer clear of tipping these guys, we think.
• The Sea Eagles‘ clash with the Knights is crucially important for keeping touch with the Top 8, but we can’t see a path to victory for them. Though they’re getting their back-rowers back, they are more than cancelled out by the loss of key big man, Addin Fonua-Blake. In case you’ve forgotten how their pack stood up without him last time, let us remind you: in those two weeks, they were outgained by over 1200m combined. This is bad at the best of times, but is a particularly big issue when facing the surprisingly dominant Newcastle pack, who rank 1st in the league for RMVOA, and who are getting their forward leader Daniel Saifiti back from injury. Newcastle are better than Manly anyway – they beat them last start despite finishing the game with a one-man bench and playing what felt like the entire second half down their own end. With what we’re expecting to be a dominant territorial advantage, they should be able to take advantage of a suddenly shaky Manly defense that’s leaked 68 points in the past 2 weeks.

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2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 70/96 (73%) (Last week: 7/8)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Roosters
• Sea Eagles
• Rabbitohs
• Storm
• Knights
• Panthers
• Cowboys
• Eels

Notes

• Both the Dragons and Roosters dropped selection bombshells on Tuesday, with halves Corey Norman and Kyle Flanagan both dropped for the first time this season. In both cases, the desire for change is understandable – the Dragons’ offense ranks a lowly 11th in the league, while the Roosters LBVOA over the past three weeks (-33.55%) would be good enough to place them 3rd-last in the competition. That being said, the consequences of the changes are likely to be felt differently for each side. At the Dragons, Norman’s role is that of the primary attacking playmaker. He’s responsible for the majority of the team’s attacking kicks (and as a result, is 9th in the NRL for forced drop-outs), and his frequent touches in positive field position see him 3rd in the team for try involvements (behind Matt Dufty and Zac Lomax). Removing Norman will fundamentally change the side’s attack, and likely result in the side reverting to Ben Hunt as the go-to man, with Adam Clune in a complimentary role. Whether or not that change is a positive remains to be seen, and your view is likely to be shaped by how positively you view Hunt (or if you just can’t stand Norman). At the Roosters though, Flanagan plays a clear second fiddle to Luke Keary, and is only the primary option for long kicks. Whether or not he deserves to be dropped is debatable (we’d argue that after a quiet opening to the season he’s really blossomed since the resumption), but regardless, replacing him with Lachlan Lam is unlikely to move the needle very much – this is Keary’s team, and their fate remains firmly in his hands. For what it’s worth, we’re of the view that the Roosters’ lack of recent production is instead tied to a decline in dominance of their forward pack, and we don’t see any obvious reason why that’s likely to have improved (if anything, with the mid-week scratching of Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, it’s likely to have gotten worse). For this reason, though we’re tipping the Roosters to get home, we’re expecting it to be significantly more competitive than the current odds would suggest.
• Speaking of curiously-priced underdogs, we’d love to know what makes the bookies so confident in the Sea Eagles. Since losing Tom Trbojevic in Round 6, they’ve offered absolutely nothing offensively, averaging under 3 tries per game, with a LBVOA of -16.49%. Though we’d subjectively agree that Cade Cust is a better 6 than Lachlan Croker, it’s difficult to back that up with numbers, with Cust having produced just a single try assist and zero line break assists in his 5 matches so far. So if you’re backing Manly, you’re doing so on the notoriety of their D – and to be honest, that hasn’t been that crash hot lately, either. After conceding 3 tries or less in all of their opening six matches, they’ve now conceded 4 or more in 4 of their last 6, including a last-start walloping in which Penrith laid the blueprint for how to attack the Sea Eagles’ umbrella defense. Adding further questions to the Eagles’ D is the loss of the ginger menace, Brad Parker. In Parker, Manly have one of the better defensive centres in the league, with Parker having conceded just 4 line breaks and 3 tries all season (compare that to, say, Moses Suli, who’s allowed 7 and 5, respectively, while playing 2 fewer games). He’ll be replaced here by Tevita Funa, who’s only previous start at centre was in the side’s 40-22 hammering at the hands of Cronulla. Like in the match above, we agree that Manly are generally speaking the better side, and likely the safer bet; but do they deserve to be overwhelming favourites? Honestly, probably not.
• On a related note, can we finally put to bed the myth that Jake Trbojevic is the best lock forward in the game? Going head-to-head against Penrith lock Isaah Yeo, the gulf in class was obvious. While Emperor Plod Trbojevic turned in another 7 metres-per-carry effort (“Kneel before Plod!”), Yeo was once again outstanding, averaging almost an extra 3m per hit-up. This isn’t a fluke – Yeo has outplayed Plod consistently across the season. Amongst all eligible lock forwards this season, Yeo ranks 9th in metres-per-carry, 1st in line breaks, and 2nd in tackle breaks. Our mate Plod, meanwhile, is 37th, 4th and 31st. Now, Plod’s supporters love to scream, “but he’s a ballplayer! Having Plod is like having an extra half!” Please. Plod has all of 2 line break assists on the season. The only way that would be like having an extra half, is if that half were Lachlan Lewis. And before you point to his defense, we’ll stop you right there – he makes just 3 extra tackles per game, but with a lower tackle efficiency (93% v 95%); has conceded an extra line break; and also has an extra error, for good measure. So let’s just call a spade a spade – Yeo is better than Trbojevic, and deserves both his rep jerseys. We hope this clears that up.
• Though Anthony Seibold keeps assuring us all that the Broncos are apparently playing “much better”, last week marked the 3rd week on the trot in which they’ve conceded 7 or more line breaks in a game, and the 5th such occasion this year (indeed, there’s an argument to be made that on that side of the ball, they’re actually getting worse). We’d agree that their offense looked significantly better against Cronulla, but that should be taken with a grain of salt – at this point, just about everyone who plays the Sharks has a field day with the ball. Against the Rabbitohs, their pitiful defense will be subjected to another high-end offense, and will have to keep pace without key playmaker Anthony Milford. The return of David Fifita helps, but unless they’ve got another half a dozen of him out the back, they’re in a world of strife here. Wayne Bennett will be licking his lips at the opportunity to drop the hammer on the man who replaced him.
• We don’t expect the Storm to lose, but it’ll be worth observing how their offense looks this weekend without both Cameron Smith and Ryan Papenhuyzen. It shouldn’t need to be terribly good – their defense is the best in the league, while the Bulldogs’ O is 2nd-worst; to be perfectly honest, we’d be shocked if Canterbury get to 10 points. But nonetheless, with Smith in the twilight of his career, this week may provide a glimpse of what their future holds, and what a Cameron Munster-led offense would look like.
• We would have backed the Knights this week anyway – we made the point last week that in our view, Newcastle are being consistently underestimated – but the loss of Harry Grant for the Tigers is devastating. Grant has been a revelation this season, providing 9 try involvements, 6 line break assists and 5 try assists for Wests. That’s a lot of production to replace. Worse, with Jacob Liddle still sidelined with injury, that leaves certified non-hooker Moses Mbye to fill-in at dummy-half – a move that will compromise the quality of service provided to the side’s halves. Grant is probably the one player the Tigers could least afford to lose, and hopefully is absence is a short one.
• While the rugby league world continues to be enthralled by the Raiders’ three-game winning streak without star hooker Josh Hodgson, it’s about time we put those performances into perspective. They haven’t been winning due to anything they’ve done offensively – they have just 3 combined line breaks over the past fortnight, and a LBVOA of -41.56% since Hodgson went down (for comparison, this week’s opponent, the Panthers, have made 3 or more breaks in all but one match this season, and possess the 2nd best LBVOA in the league). No, they’ve been winning because their defense has improved considerably – something that has nothing to do with Hodgson whatsoever. If we had to guess, we’d say the absence of serial liability Curtis Scott for two of those weeks probably helped, as did the opportunity to defend against a North Queensland team missing three quarters of its starting spine (in a game being played in a monsoon). Here, they’ll have no such luck. Scott and his bewildering decision-making is in, and the Raiders’ brittle right edge will be tasked with trying to defend the NRL’s most potent attacking left edge (the Viliame Kikau/Stephen Crichton combo, that has 53 tackle busts, 21 try involvements and 17 line breaks between them). The Raiders will need to find something special if they’re to survive that mismatch; and even then, they’d also need to find a way through one of the league’s premium defenses. Penrith to win, and we fancy they’re a good shout for 13+.
• The clash between the Titans and Cowboys has the potential to be very interesting, if only because of both sides’ propensity to concede points. Here, we’ll find the league’s 4th-worst and 2nd-worst defense going head-to-head, which should – in theory – lead to a potential avalanche of points. But where are those points going to come from? For their part, the Titans are bringing the league’s worst offense to the table, having exceeded 16 points just twice all year. Their issues lie with their spine – the dreadfully mediocre Ash Taylor is their only player with more than 2 line break assists all season, and even he has only mustered 6. However, the Cows come with issues of their own. Scott Drinkwater and Valentine Holmes have been their two most effective attacking weapons, and both remain sidelined with injuries. Our hope is that the return of Michael Morgan offers the Cowboys a little bit of something, otherwise this match could easily descend into a frustrating 80 minutes of watching both sides butchering opportunities.
• Even by their own shockingly low standards, the Sharks’ defense was pitiful last weekend, leaking 9 line breaks and 26 points to a Brisbane side who’ve won just 1 of their last 10 games. Perhaps the most amazing thing about Cronulla’s defensive deficiencies is that they somehow are still in the Top 8. For better or worse, Cronulla just keep on winning, and they do it by scoring an absurd volume of points. After last week’s win, the Sharks have now managed to score 20+ points for 7 weeks in a row, a period in which they’ve racked up 40+ on 3 separate occasions. They were slow to get going this season, but at this point their offense is absolutely humming. Our issue with Cronulla though, is that it has to be – yes, they’ve scored 20+ for seven straight weeks (and 8 games, total), but they’ve also leaked 20+ points in 7 separate games. Through 12 weeks, Cronulla average 22.8 points conceded per game – winning matches with a defense that bad simply isn’t sustainable. Which means that either their defense needs to get better, or losses may be just around the corner. We’re not exactly huge believers in the Eels, but having just seen Cronulla get shredded by Brisbane, we feel like we have to give them the benefit of the doubt here. But the Sharks’ future is in their own hands, and if they can find a way to make their defense even remotely competitive, their offense is that good that they could easily make a deep run into the finals.

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