2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 29/48 (60%)

Line Betting: 11/21 (52%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)

NRL Round 7 Tips and Previews

Bulldogs v Roosters

Offense VOA: Bulldogs 4.98% (7th), Roosters 5.74% (6th)

Defense VOA: Bulldogs 6.57% (10th), Roosters -18.53% (5th)

Tonight’s clash between the Bulldogs and Roosters is one of the more intriguing games of the week, based as much on the Bulldogs’ consistency as the Roosters lack thereof.

Though the Bulldogs aren’t a sexy team in 2018 (and we’d agree that at this stage they’re probably not a genuine premiership threat), they’ve actually been impressively steady from week to week. They’ve scored between 2-4 tries in every game so far, made between 3-5 line breaks in every outing, and run for between 1270-1370m in 4 of their 6 games. Say what you like about Canterbury, but you know what you’re going to get when they turn up, and that’s 80 minutes of reasonably solid football. Unfortunately, “reasonably solid” is typically only going to be good enough to beat bad teams (like the Cowboys last week), or good teams having a bad day (like the Panthers in Week 3). If teams aim up against the Bulldogs, Canterbury lack the strikepower out wide to keep pace (FUN FACT: Among all NRL teams, the Bulldogs centre pairing of Josh Morris and Will Hopoate rank dead last for combined line breaks – with just 2 all season).

Which makes the Roosters a particularly interesting opponent, primarily because they’re the most inconsistent team through the competition’s opening six weeks. So far this season, the Roosters have scored 5 or more tries in half their games, while being held to 2 or less in their other half. Their performances bounce around like a yo-yo, leaving us wondering each week which Roosters team we’re going to get – Dr. Jekyll, or Mr. Hyde?

For this reason, we don’t hate the Bulldogs at their current price ($2.52 at time of writing). The Roosters’ performance looks like a coin flip, and if they don’t show up, the Bulldogs CAN beat them.

However, we still have to back the Roosters. To borrow from tennis terminology: the match will be decided on their racquet. As unreliable as Sydney have been, we want the team who’d win if both teams play to their potential. And in this case, that team is the Roosters.

Our tip: Roosters

[Read more…]

Related NRL News & Posts:

• No Related NRL News

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 23/40 (58%)

Line Betting: 8/17 (47%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)

A quick note on the early round stats: The nature of our VOA-based NRL statistics is that they naturally require a league average as a starting point, thus the smaller the sample size, the less accurate these stats will be. However, to satisfy our readers, we’ll publish the stats and associated projections from Round 1 (despite a persistent letter-writing campaign, I’m yet to find any major footy tipping outlets who are willing to start their competitions from Round 10…). In order to do this, we’re forced to use the 2017 database as the foundation for the stats, and as the weeks pass these will be combined with the new season’s numbers and weighted progressively less each week until the numbers used are entirely from 2018. We can’t guarantee that this method is necessarily going to be effective (although we tried it last year and it was surprisingly successful, the level of player turnover this off-season is unprecedented, and likely to greatly affect the outcomes), but it’s the only way we can think of to present the data in the early rounds without it being totally skewed by an insufficient sample size. In short, for at least the first month it is best to consider our stats as purely for entertainment purposes. They may prove accurate (we’ll review them later in the season), but the method remains firmly in the testing phase.

NRL Round 6 Tips and Previews

Roosters v Rabbitohs

Offense VOA: Roosters 10.47% (6th), Rabbitohs 32.38% (1st)

Defense VOA: Roosters -17.48% (5th), Rabbitohs -6.87% (7th)

The Rabbitohs did us proud last week, muscling up for a strong performance in narrowly going down to the Dragons. Unfortunately for them though, it doesn’t get any easier, with a date with the dangerous Roosters next on the menu.

The Bunnies are something of an enigma so far in 2018, putting together some unbelievable attacking numbers in what have generally been just short spurts of good footy. Once again last week, they meandered through much of the game, never looking so much as vaguely threatening, until a late burst came very close to snatching the unlikeliest of victories (we hope that Ben Hunt gave Cody Walker a big hug, after the latter spectacularly dropped the match; not once, but twice). On one hand, you can’t help but admire the ability of the Rabbitohs when they’re in full flight – they actually rank 1st in LBVOA, RMVOA, and TBVOA (though those numbers are all somewhat inflated by their Round 3 soul-crushing of the Sea Eagles). They’ve only been held to under 4 line breaks in a match once this year (the only other teams that can say that are Canterbury and New Zealand), and their forwards are playing like it’s 2014, running for at least 1350m in every game this season (the only team to match that is again, the Warriors). Put it altogether, and they should be killing it, right?

Well, you’d think so, except that for great slabs of matches they seem to slip back into “2017 Rabbitohs”, and just trudge forward mindlessly towards a fifth tackle kick, with very little creativity. Though they looked great in the last 10 minutes last week, in the 70 minutes before that, they scored just 2 points. They came home strong against the Bulldogs, but at the half, they were actually losing 14-6. Against the Panthers, the problem was the opposite – leading 14-0 at the break, then going AWOL for the second 40. In a way, they’re like a poor man’s Penrith – playing good for about half an hour a game, only without the wins to show for it.

And the Roosters aren’t a team against whom you can afford to play for less than 80 minutes. Despite struggling for consistency themselves, the Roosters have still managed to score 28 or more on 3 occasions this year – a mark the Rabbitohs have hit just once. While we actually do believe that the Rabbitohs have the attacking strikepower to keep pace with the Roosters if they wanted to, it’s hard to confidently tip that they will when they’ve only played one complete game to their potential this year (we’re referring, of course, to the Manly game).

We really like how the Bunnies are building, but the Roosters are too good a side to beat without turning up for the full 80 minutes.

Our tip: Roosters

[Read more…]

Related NRL News & Posts:

• No Related NRL News

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 18/32 (56%)

Line Betting: 7/14 (50%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)

A quick note on the early round stats: The nature of our VOA-based NRL statistics is that they naturally require a league average as a starting point, thus the smaller the sample size, the less accurate these stats will be. However, to satisfy our readers, we’ll publish the stats and associated projections from Round 1 (despite a persistent letter-writing campaign, I’m yet to find any major footy tipping outlets who are willing to start their competitions from Round 10…). In order to do this, we’re forced to use the 2017 database as the foundation for the stats, and as the weeks pass these will be combined with the new season’s numbers and weighted progressively less each week until the numbers used are entirely from 2018. We can’t guarantee that this method is necessarily going to be effective (although we tried it last year and it was surprisingly successful, the level of player turnover this off-season is unprecedented, and likely to greatly affect the outcomes), but it’s the only way we can think of to present the data in the early rounds without it being totally skewed by an insufficient sample size. In short, for at least the first month it is best to consider our stats as purely for entertainment purposes. They may prove accurate (we’ll review them later in the season), but the method remains firmly in the testing phase.

NRL Round 5 Tips and Previews

Raiders v Bulldogs

Offense VOA: Raiders 23.26% (3rd), Bulldogs 0.42% (9th)

Defense VOA: Raiders 12.75% (11th), Bulldogs -10.37% (6th)

This surely has to be it.

For three weeks, the Raiders were the better team on the field, only to somehow find a way to lose. They outplayed the Titans, then the Knights, and finally the Warriors; but ultimately were left with nothing to show for it. Subsequently, their weak effort against a rebounding Sea Eagles team was almost to be expected. However, this week – finally – they get a team almost as unfamiliar with winning as they are. The Bulldogs enter this match with just a single win to their name, and even in that win, they likely would have blown it had the match gone 5 minutes longer. Last weekend, they dominated the Rabbitohs from the opening whistle, only to have the match stolen from in the final moments, in a performance that was eerily Raider-esque. So surely this has to be the match-up the Raiders have been waiting for, right?

Hopefully, but we’re not as confident as we’d like to be.

The main reason for that comes in two parts. Firstly, after a weak opening fortnight, the Bulldogs’  big men have put in two good efforts over their last two games, and unsurprisingly, their results have improved in turn. The Raiders, meanwhile, could barely advance the ball at all against Manly, struggling away for just 1033m, just a week after the Sea Eagles conceded a whopping 1770m against Souths.

And secondly, they’ll now have to try and get over the top of the Bulldogs without Test forward Josh Papalii, who was sensationally dropped to reserve grade by coach Ricky Stuart.

We can understand Stuart wanting to shore up the Raiders’ defensive edges – they rank fourth last in LBCVOA, and the overwhelming majority of those breaks have come on the Raiders’ edges. However, we’re not convinced Papalii is the problem – he’s directly conceded just 2 line breaks all season, drastically less than fellow edge defenders Jordan Rapana (5), Jarrod Croker (4), and Sam Williams (4), and importantly, the same as opposite second-rower Elliot Whitehead. And even if we did consider Papalii’s defense to be the cause of the Raiders’ woes (we don’t), it’s worth noting that pulling him out suddenly creates a massive hole in offensive workload that needs to be replaced. Of all the Raiders forwards, Papalii ranks first in total runs (52), run metres (432), and second in tackle breaks (8). In short, winning matches is obviously difficult for Canberra at the moment as it is, they didn’t need to go and make it harder for themselves by dropping one of their best players.

So with the two sides so evenly matched, how do we separate them? It’s not on the Raiders’ well-known right edge, where Rapana and Joey Leilua are likely to find it hard slogging against the Morris twins (we don’t care what anyone says, Josh Morris remains one of the best defensive centres in football). No, where the Raiders have the clear upper hand is on their left edge, where Croker and Nic Cotric have combined for a whopping 8 line breaks between them in just four matches, and manage to draw the defensively-challenged pairing of Marcel Montoya and Will Hopoate, who have leaked an incredible 8 line breaks in four matches between them (on the other side of that coin, the Raiders pair have conceded just 5, while the Bulldogs duo have yet to make one).

We don’t feel confident (how can you, at this point?), but surely the Raiders have to win this. And when they do, it won’t be because they dropped Papalii.

Our tip: Raiders

[Read more…]

Related NRL News & Posts:

• No Related NRL News

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 14/24 (58%)

Line Betting: 5/10 (50%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)

A quick note on the early round stats: The nature of our VOA-based NRL statistics is that they naturally require a league average as a starting point, thus the smaller the sample size, the less accurate these stats will be. However, to satisfy our readers, we’ll publish the stats and associated projections from Round 1 (despite a persistent letter-writing campaign, I’m yet to find any major footy tipping outlets who are willing to start their competitions from Round 10…). In order to do this, we’re forced to use the 2017 database as the foundation for the stats, and as the weeks pass these will be combined with the new season’s numbers and weighted progressively less each week until the numbers used are entirely from 2018. We can’t guarantee that this method is necessarily going to be effective (although we tried it last year and it was surprisingly successful, the level of player turnover this off-season is unprecedented, and likely to greatly affect the outcomes), but it’s the only way we can think of to present the data in the early rounds without it being totally skewed by an insufficient sample size. In short, for at least the first month it is best to consider our stats as purely for entertainment purposes. They may prove accurate (we’ll review them later in the season), but the method remains firmly in the testing phase.

NRL Round 4 Tips and Previews

Cowboys v Panthers

Offense VOA: Cowboys -18.02% (12th), Panthers 8.66% (8th)

Defense VOA: Cowboys 29.78% (14th), Panthers -1.98% (10th)

How much is Nathan Cleary worth to the Panthers? That’s the million-dollar question that punters (and Phil Gould) need to figure out, and the next two months will hopefully give us a few clues.

According to the bookies, Cleary’s worth an awful lot, with the Panthers blowing out to over $4 at time of writing. Maybe we’re just being contrarian, but in this particular match-up, we like those odds.

The appeal of the Panthers here lies in how their strengths stack up against the Cowboys’ weaknesses. Thus far, both sides have struggled with their structured attacking sets. James Maloney has struggled to get on the same page as his outside men at Penrith, and was only just beginning to settle in when the Panthers lost Cleary, and Maloney was thrust into the role of dominant playmaker. In the long run, we expect this to actually be a blessing in disguise for the Panthers, as it’ll force the ball into their best player’s hands more often, and by the time Cleary returns, Maloney should (hopefully) be firing on all cylinders. In the meantime, it’s less than ideal, however it’s worth pointing out that the Panthers have scored very few tries from their set attacking patterns anyway, so how much they’ll lose from Cleary in that regard should be minimal.

In the Cowboys’ case, they too have struggled in the their opposition’s red zone, mainly due to the limitations of a mind-numbingly simple gameplan, and the absence of Lachlan Coote (who’s expected to make a comeback this weekend via the Queensland Cup, and should subsequently liberate Johnathan Thurston). The Cowboys’ lack of success generally can be linked to their inability to free up their outside men (the Cowboys outside backs have combined for just 2 line breaks in the opening three weeks). If the Panthers’ defense has an obvious weakness, it’s out wide, where their three-quarters have allowed over a third of their conceded line breaks (and if you add the halves to that number, it jumps to over a half). Penrith’s middle is generally water-tight, so the Cowboys’ typical attacking set of ‘give it to Taumololo or Hess and hope for the best’ isn’t likely to reap many rewards. The Cowboys will need to send the ball wide early and often to put points on Penrith, something they’ve failed to do effectively in 2018 (or 2017, for that matter).

When it comes to the Cowboys’ Achilles Heel, however, it’s a very different story. Where the Cowboys struggle defensively – in the middle of the park, around the ruck – just so happens to coincide with exactly what the Panthers do best. For all their flaws in executing their structures, the Panthers have so far been rescued on two occasions (and almost for a third time last week) by individual efforts, straight through the middle of the defensive line. The blossoming Dylan Edwards leads the team in both line breaks (4) and tackle breaks (15), and being a running fullback, he spends much of his time hovering around the forwards in support play (similar to Billy Slater). Tied for second in both numbers is Viliame Kikau, who’s a lot like what Coen Hess would be, if Hess could actually tackle (should they line up opposite each other, it should be spectacular). Most importantly, the absence of Cleary should theoretically have a minimal effect on this style of offense, with the Panthers’ line break assists spread relatively evenly across the team (Cleary himself accounts for just 2 of the Panthers’ 9; in contrast, at the Cowboys, Thurston accounts for 4 of his team’s 7).

So will the Panthers be worse? Probably, but it remains to be seen how much worse, and this is a theoretically good match-up for Penrith otherwise. The Cowboys very well may win (they can’t keep playing this poorly forever), but their over-whelming favouritism seems to be built more on reputation than anything they’ve actually done thus far.

Our tip: Panthers

[Read more…]

Related NRL News & Posts:

• No Related NRL News

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 9/16 (56%)

Line Betting: 3/6 (50%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)

A quick note on the early round stats: The nature of our VOA-based NRL statistics is that they naturally require a league average as a starting point, thus the smaller the sample size, the less accurate these stats will be. However, to satisfy our readers, we’ll publish the stats and associated projections from Round 1 (despite a persistent letter-writing campaign, I’m yet to find any major footy tipping outlets who are willing to start their competitions from Round 10…). In order to do this, we’re forced to use the 2017 database as the foundation for the stats, and as the weeks pass these will be combined with the new season’s numbers and weighted progressively less each week until the numbers used are entirely from 2018. We can’t guarantee that this method is necessarily going to be effective (although we tried it last year and it was surprisingly successful, the level of player turnover this off-season is unprecedented, and likely to greatly affect the outcomes), but it’s the only way we can think of to present the data in the early rounds without it being totally skewed by an insufficient sample size. In short, for at least the first month it is best to consider our stats as purely for entertainment purposes. They may prove accurate (we’ll review them later in the season), but the method remains firmly in the testing phase.

NRL Round 3 Tips and Previews

Storm v Cowboys

Offense VOA: Storm 38.21% (1st), Cowboys -17.84% (13th)

Defense VOA: Storm -43.11% (1st), Cowboys 21.00% (14th)

Oh my good lord, the Storm were bad last week. As in, Roosters in Week One bad. We don’t know what came over them, but this was easily the worst game the Storm have played in over 12 months, and sits alongside Parramatta as the worst anyone’s played so far this season. But still, they were actually winning with 2 minutes to go. Yes, this partially points to the crumminess of the Tigers, but we’ll get to them later. For now, let’s just appreciate how good a team the Storm are, that even when they’re at their very worst, they’re still somehow competitive. (The Eels, for example, were not competitive. Nope. Not for a minute. Not even a little bit.)

So no, we’re not concerned about the Storm, and we’d be shocked if they were to serve up another bludger of a game like that this week (or this year, for that matter). What we are beginning to get a little bit concerned about though, is the Cowboys.

Their offense has at best looked ho-hum through their first two outings, which is partially explained by the absence of Michael Morgan (who at time of writing has been named to return), and the consistently under-rated Lachlan Coote. However, they do still have this bloke named Johnathan Thurston (we hear he’s pretty good), so the simple, forward-dominated attacking structure in the opposition 20 is a tad disappointing (and, it would appear, is getting a bit stale).

The real concern for us though, is their defense. A year ago, the Cowboys had an unfortunate tendency to allow line breaks through the middle third of the field, and at the time, we put it down to the shortage of troops in their engine room. However, that’s no longer the case, and yet the Broncos were able to easily punch holes through the belly of the Cowboys (3 of the Broncos’ line breaks came between the numbers), and similarly, the Sharks were able to attack the Cowboys up the middle the week before (when they weren’t dropping the pill). This was an area where we’d thought the return of Matt Scott would clean up, but so far this season, he’s been missing some disappointingly soft tackle attempts, and actually sits equal with Johnathan Thurston – a halfback – for the most missed tackles in the team (8). He’s deserves a long leash on account of all he’s accomplished in the game, but given his advancing age (he’s 32) and the severity of the injury he’s returning from, we can’t help wondering if his best days are behind him (he obviously needs longer than two weeks to be judged, we’re just raising the issue).

And now, they get the Storm, a team just as capable of tearing you open up the middle via Billy Slater, as they are of going around you with their Fijian wingers. We really like the Cowboys this year, but we just can’t get excited about them this week. We have genuine concerns about their defense, and if their forwards don’t really aim up, there’s a chance they may actually get torched.

Our tip: Storm

[Read more…]

Related NRL News & Posts:

• No Related NRL News