2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 60/100 (60%)

Line Betting: 20/42 (48%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)

NRL Round 14 Tips and Previews

Raiders v Panthers

Offense VOA: Raiders 17.44% (2nd), Panthers -1.50% (8th)

Defense VOA: Raiders 2.57% (11th), Panthers -6.97% (7th)

We were somewhat surprised this week to find that the Raiders have been installed as the bookmakers’ favourites for this clash. Not that we don’t rate Canberra – we’ve been among their most ardent supporters throughout their difficult first half of the season. However, even allowing for the fact that the Raiders have been playing better football than their ladder position indicates, it’s difficult to make a strong argument that they’ve been better than the ladder-leading Panthers. So, we can only assume that the support for the Raiders is due to the sizeable Panthers Origin contingent. On the surface, that makes perfect sense. However, we’re not sure that argument holds up in the face of closer scrutiny.

Starting with the obvious, Tyrone Peachey only played 7 minutes on Wednesday night, so should be feeling fresh as a daisy (in fact, he probably would’ve had to work harder if he were back on Mulgoa Road at the captain’s run). Then, we have the Panthers’ halves, James Maloney and Nathan Cleary. Given their position, we’re not especially concerned with fatigue – neither player is typically expected to make 30+ tackles or double-digit runs anyway (though neither player minds taking the line on). Our main concern here would be either player missing the game entirely. For piece of mind there we can look at a couple things – history, and the team list. In the past two years, from 5 possible opportunities to back up from Origin, Maloney backed up in 4 of them, so in the very least, we shouldn’t assume he’ll sit out (and for what it’s worth, the Panthers are claiming he’ll play). Secondly, looking at the cuts Penrith have made from their squad, it’s noteworthy that they’ve axed reserve half Jarome Luai from the squad – suggesting that at least one of the duo is certain to play (they’ve kept utility half Tyrone May – who you may remember as the guy who filled in for Matt Moylan as the Panthers ran into the 2nd week of last year’s finals).

Finally, the player most likely to suffer the effects of post-Origin fatigue is key middle Reagan Campbell-Gillard. We’d agree that it’s unlikely they get the same minutes they’re used to from the big guy (or the same quality, for that matter), however it’s worth mentioning that the Raiders will also have forward Josh Papalii looking to back up; and Papalii’s combined 38 runs and tackles are identical to Campbell-Gillard’s number. If we assume that fatigue affects both forwards equally, and that Peachey is virtually unaffected, it appears that the real question here should be: who would you rather – a fresh Blake Austin and Aidan Sezer, or a tired James Maloney and Nathan Cleary? Yeah, that’s what we thought, too.

Now that we’ve addressed the team situation, it’s hard to argue too strongly in favour of Canberra. The Raiders’ offense is certainly better than the Panthers’, however their defense has been consistently poor, while the Panthers’ has been typically decent, and lately, impenetrable (the Panthers haven’t conceded a try in their past 2 games combined).

We do think it’ll be competitive, and a vocal home crowd at GIO will surely benefit the Raiders (Penrith have conceded the 2nd most penalties this year). However, try as we might, we just can’t find the evidence to say that the Raiders are better than Penrith. We think they’re very good, yes. But better? It’s tight, but we’re not prepared to say that.

Our tip: Panthers

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2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 59/96 (61%)

Line Betting: 19/40 (48%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)

NRL Round 13 Tips and Previews

Sea Eagles v Cowboys

Offense VOA: Sea Eagles 10.93% (4th), Cowboys -22.02% (14th)

Defense VOA: Sea Eagles 5.93% (12th), Cowboys 3.37% (11th)

We hate Origin rounds.

Ordinarily, this match would be a relatively straightforward one to tip, with the Cowboys unlikely to be able to keep pace with the Eagles’ scoring. This week, though? Things get a little bit complicated.

Thanks to Origin, the Sea Eagles will come into this match without their two best players, Tom and Jake Trbojevic. Tom will be replaced at fullback by Matthew Wright, while Frank Winterstein joins the starting side in the second row, with Shaun Lane replacing Jake. Needless to say, those are both significant downgrades for the Sea Eagles, who are a side who were already struggling badly with a lack of depth. The loss of Tom Trbojevic in paticular terrifies us, as he’s been central to everything the Sea Eagles have done this year on offense. Incredibly, Trbojevic doesn’t just lead his team in try assists and line break assists, he has almost double the tally of try assists (11) as the next best on his team (Daly Cherry-Evans, with 6) and more than triple the next best in line break assists (14, compared to Cherry-Evans’ 4). Add in the fact that he leads Manly in virtually every significant offensive statistic (line breaks, tackle breaks, try involvements), and we’re painting the picture of a player who’s absolutely invaluable to his side. Advantage Cowboys.

But on the other hand, North Queensland haven’t gotten off lightly, either. They lose Michael Morgan, Gavin Cooper and Coen Hess to Origin duty, as well as Matt Scott to suspension. Morgan will be replaced at the back by the superior Lachlan Coote (to be clear, we’re not saying that Cootey is a better footballer than Morgan, but rather that he’s a better fullback, and a better fit for the side there), while the new-look pack features the additions of Shaun Fensom and… Ben Hampton at prop (Ben HAMPTON?!? Yes, Ben Hampton). Add in the fact that Scott Bolton hasn’t trained all week with a rib issue, and it’s at least possible that the Cowboys could be trotting out a team with only two specialist props (Sam Hoare and Francis Molo), and at best five middles (adding lock forwards Jason Taumalolo, Corey Jensen, and the under-sized Shaun Fensom). We don’t particularly rate the Sea Eagles’ forward pack (in fact, we often go into great detail about how crap they are), but taking away the one aspect of the game in which the Cowboys should have the advantage (the forward battle) doesn’t fill us with confidence. Advantage Sea Eagles.

So, what are the heck are we to do? Neither team bears much similarity to it’s usual make-up, and for that matter, neither side has typically been particularly good, either. Manly come in in slightly better form (though neither side is excellent defensively; on offense at least, the Sea Eagles’ 13 tries over their past 3 games is significantly better than the Cowboys’ 5), but the question hinges on how badly each team will be affected. We mentioned how important Tom Trbojevic has been to the Sea Eagles this year; however it’s worth noting that historically, Manly have done surprisingly well at covering for him in the matches he’s missed so far in his career. Without him in Round 5 this year, they lost to the Titans, but were still able to put up 20 points in his absence. In two games without him in 2017, they won both, scoring 30 and 21 (against the Titans again, and the Raiders). Admittedly, none of those teams had particularly strong defenses, but then again, neither do the 2018 Cowboys (they rank just 11th in Defense VOA).

We say it without much conviction, but if you consider the Sea Eagles better in the first place (as we do), then there’s probably insufficient evidence to suggest that the team changes benefit the Cowboys enough to back them here.

Did we mention we hate Origin weeks?

Our tip: Sea Eagles

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2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 53/88 (60%)

Line Betting: 16/35 (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)

NRL Round 12 Tips and Previews

Broncos v Eels

Offense VOA: Broncos 9.47% (6th), Eels -26.78% (15th)

Defense VOA: Broncos -6.32% (6th), Eels 13.51% (14th)

Subjectively, we still find it hard to get especially excited about the Broncos – they just don’t look good.

That said, they’re amassing consistently impressive numbers that are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Offensively, they reside in the Top 6 for both LBVOA and TBVOA; which – when combined with their consistently high possession shares, earned by their impeccable discipline (they’ve made the 6th least errors and conceded the least amount of penalties) – have seen the Broncos average 4 tries per game over the last six weeks, and score 20 or more points in each week over that period. They might look stale and disorganised, but at some point, it becomes difficult to argue with production.

The Eels, on the other hand, both look bad, and are bad. After giving their fans a glimmer of hope with back-to-back wins over the Sea Eagles and Tigers, the Eels have now lost three-on-the-trot, and well and truly picked up where they left off earlier in the year.

In truth, there were arguably some positive signs in their losses to the Sharks and Bulldogs, with the team posting a solid 19.02% LBVOA over that fortnight (good enough for 2nd in the league); in those matches, they were losing more due to their consistently poor defense than their offense. Against the Warriors, though, they looked exactly like the Eels of the season’s opening month, somehow only managing 2 tries and 3 line breaks, despite earning a whopping 55% share of possession, and gaining almost 300 extra metres. Quite simply, their attack was absolutely atrocious, and cost them a victory in a match that they were absurdly well placed to win.

Against the Broncos, it’s highly unlikely that they’ll get anything like the same number of opportunities. In addition to the Broncos’ tight discipline, Brisbane have also forced the 3rd most repeat sets in the league, a combination that’s seen them earn at least 50% possession in 6 of their last 7 outings. And of the 7 matches in which the Eels have had 50% or less possession, how many have they won? Zero.

In short, it’s Brisbane for us.

Our tip: Broncos

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2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 49/80 (61%)

Line Betting: 16/32 (50%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)

NRL Round 11 Tips and Previews

Panthers v Tigers

Offense VOA: Panthers -6.60% (9th), Tigers -7.51% (10th)

Defense VOA: Panthers 11.76% (12th), Tigers -2.52% (7th)

Yep, it’s confirmed – the Tigers sure can win games… that is, when their opponents roll out of bed and forget how to play football (but hey, they all count the same).

Through ten weeks, the Tigers have now amassed a surprising 6 wins. That’s impressive, and sees the Tigers sitting comfortably inside the Top 8. However, of those, how many games have the Tigers won when their opponents haven’t made double-digit errors? The answer (as you may have guessed) is zero.

Last Thursday, the Cowboys joined a growing list of teams to have suffered a melt-down against the Tigers, turning in error after what-the-heck-was-he-thinking error. To their credit, the Tigers took advantage, easing their way to a 20-12 victory. The issue though, is that we’ve learnt over the past month that if their opposition can just control the ball – as the Knights, Warriors and (to some extent) the Eels did – the Tigers are (very) beatable.

Which is bad news. It’s bad news, because it’s unrealistic to expect opposition teams to consistently gift wins to them all season (and particularly not in September). But it’s particularly bad news this week, where they’ll face the Panthers – the team who’ve made the least errors so far in 2018. If the Tigers’ wins are dependent on their opposition stinking it up, there may not be a worse team to face. So far this season, the Tigers have won just 1 of 5 matches in which their opponent has made less than 12 errors (and that team was the hapless Eels); the Panthers have only exceeded that mark once (also against the Eels, and anyway, the Panthers won).

And assuming the Panthers don’t gift a ton of possession to the Tigers, it’s difficult to see them getting beaten. The return of Nathan Cleary will see Tyrone Peachey slide out to the centres, which should improve the Panthers’ edge defense. It should also have a flow-on effect on Penrith’s pack, with Isiaah Yeo returning to the back row, and allowing the Panthers to unleash Viliame Kikau from the bench.

In general, we’d argue that if the Tigers have the upper hand somewhere, it’s on defense – but we’re not even sure of that any more. Prior to last week, the Tigers had conceded 14 tries in their previous 3 games; the Panthers haven’t let in that many in their last 4. Add in the return of Cleary and a vastly superior forward pack, and it’s hard to see the Panthers losing here – that is, assuming they can do what a lot of teams can’t, and just hold onto the ball.

Our tip: Panthers

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2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 45/72 (63%)

Line Betting: 15/30 (50%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)

NRL Round 10 Tips and Previews

Tigers v Cowboys

Offense VOA: Tigers -14.73% (11th), Cowboys -13.78% (10th)

Defense VOA: Tigers 4.15% (8th), Cowboys 0.05% (7th)

How quickly things change.

It just feels like yesterday that the Tigers were standing astride the rugby league ladder like a colossus, dominating all and sundry with their seemingly impenetrable defense. The Cowboys meanwhile, were on a five-match losing streak, and facing the prospect of their season fizzling out, and taking Johnathan Thurston’s career with it. And then, the last three weeks happened.

Now, we’re not saying that the Tigers’ early season form was definitely a mirage, but if we were thirsty in the desert and saw the Tigers on the horizon, we wouldn’t be getting out our water bottles. The problem with the Tigers is that their offense is easily among the worst in the league (you don’t need our statistics to prove that; you need only watch them), leaving their successes built almost entirely on the strength of their defense (in 3 of their 5 wins, they actually scored less than 12 points; and in their other 2, they scored their points against the defenses ranked 14th and 15th). So, it should come as no surprise then, that when their defense deserts them (as it has in their last month of football), the whole thing falls down like a house of cards.

And unfortunately, their defensive regression isn’t just a one-week hiccup (as any team could potentially have), it’s a rapidly developing trend, that can be traced back to their win against Parramatta in Round 4. We mentioned our concern back then that they had bled “14 second half points to a team who had scored just 10 in their previous six halves of football“, and likewise after the win against Manly – in which they conceded 7 line breaks, despite having 60% of the ball. From that point on, the floodgates have opened – the Tigers have conceded 14 tries, 20 line breaks, and 72 points in their last 3 outings combined.

The Cowboys’ reversal of fortunes, meanwhile, have been seen almost in parallel. Their first signs of improvement arguably came in their Week 6 loss to Canterbury – where, despite scoring just 10 points, they actually made 5 line breaks, showing the first glimmer of offensive aptitude. Since then, they’ve slowly improved, before taking advantage of an injury-depleted Penrith side last weekend for a real coming out party. They’ve now made 17 line breaks in their past 3 games combined, while scoring 60 points from 9 tries. And unlike the Tigers, the new Cowboys are looking pretty good on the other side of the ball, too – their LBCVOA has surged to an impressive -31.50% over the same period – which would actually rank 1st in the season so far.

So the question here is: which team do you believe in? Do you believe that the Tigers are really the immovable object that they appeared to be over the opening month, or the competition patsies that they’ve been ever since? Similarly, do you believe that the Cowboys are the plodders that they appeared to be for six weeks, or the premiership contenders we all thought they were before a ball had been kicked?

It’s a tough call to be honest – three weeks isn’t a long enough time to just forget how good the Tigers looked just a short while ago. But with two similar teams on two very different trajectories, we’ll say “what have you done for me lately?” – and in the case of the Tigers, the answer is: “not much”.

Our tip: Cowboys

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