2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 122/192 (64%) (Last week: 4/8)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Roosters
• Storm
• Sharks
• Eels

Notes

• When you consider that the Rabbitohs literally just beat the Roosters last weekend, it looks a bit odd to see them listed as $3.35 outsiders. That being said, we agree with the bookies. For a start, the final outcome was in many ways a poor reflection of the game itself. The Roosters were completely unchallenged in the first half, taking a dominant 10-2 lead into halftime – a lead that really should have been closer to 20 points, considering that both Latrell Mitchell and Victor Radley bombed certain tries in the first stanza. Had those opportunities been taken, there’s every possibility that this game would have devolved into a blow-out. Instead, Souths were able to hit the lead with a productive 10 minutes post-half-time, before continuing to be starved of field position for the remainder of the game. This isn’t to say that they didn’t do well – considering how dominant the Roosters’ pack was (they outgained the Bunnies by over 200m), the fact that Souths were able to defend their way to victory was still impressive. However, this week’s Roosters side will be far more dangerous, for one pretty big reason – the inclusion of Luke Keary. Keary has missed 5 matches this season; of those, the Roosters have managed to win just twice. The reason for their struggles is obvious – their offense drops significantly when Keary isn’t playing. Despite having played just 19 matches, Keary is a distant first in the NRL for try involvements (with 46 – 5 clear of Chad Townsend, who’s played 5 more games). And for those of you arguing that he’s simply profiting from playing in a great team, we’ll tell you this: when Keary is absent, the Roosters’ LBVOA plummets from a season average of 29.11% to just 3.95%. Yes, the Roosters are good, but Keary makes them a whole lot better (and frankly, they were arguably better than the Rabbitohs even without him).
• Those of you who want to write off the Raiders because they lost to New Zealand last week, we’ll remind you that the team Canberra are rolling out here bears very little resemblance to the side that got beaten last weekend. They have a host of stars returning for this qualifying final, including Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Joey Leilua, Jordan Rapana, John Bateman and Joe Tapine. If you want to steer clear because they’re playing Melbourne, fair play to you (we’ll be doing the same); but make no mistake – they’ll be a much better side than what they showed a week ago.
• Of course, better or not, they still face the tricky prospect of having to beat the Storm. To that end, we will point out one aspect that they have going in their favour. Melbourne have the best defense in the league, there’s no question (they’ve conceded more than 3 tries in a game just once all season). However, if they do have a weakness, it’s defending second-phase play. In 2019, the Storm have allowed single-digit offloads in 14 matches – and in those games, they’ve allowed more than 2 tries just 3 times (21% of matches). Compare that to the 10 matches in which they’ve allowed 10 or more offloads – in these games, they’ve conceded more than 2 tries 6 times (60%). Why is this relevant? Because until last week’s match with the Warriors (in which 3 of Canberra’s top 5 offloaders weren’t playing), Canberra had made double-digit offloads in their previous 5 straight matches (at an average of 15 per game). Now, we’re not about to proclaim that the Raiders will actually win here, but we are making the point that the Raiders play a style of offense that Melbourne typically have difficulty defending (relatively speaking); so if the Storm are to win here, they’ll likely need to score a few themselves against a typically elite Raiders’ defense. We expect they will – they have the 2nd best offense in the league, after all – but acknowledge that Canberra play a style that can trouble Melbourne more than most.
• Much has been spoken this week about the Sea Eagles‘ impressive record against the Sharks, and with good reason – because without it, there’s absolutely nothing else positive you can say about Manly. Their rubbish spoiling strategy has failed them the past two weeks, and it’s not because Tom Trbojevic has been injured (though that certainly hasn’t helped). Let’s be honest – Trbojevic is a fullback. His absence is in no way responsible for his team getting lapped for 68 points in the past fortnight, and it plays no part in the team conceding 13 line breaks over that period (he doesn’t even defend in the line, for crying out loud). No, the issue here is a fundamental issue with the strategy, and one that we warned of weeks ago. Specifically, it’s impossible to employ a spoiling strategy when you’re losing – because any attempt to prevent your opponent from getting into a rhythm necessarily will have the same impact on you – and when you’re losing, you need points. So, if you fall behind early – as Manly did, conceding 2 tries in the opening 20 minutes of both outings – then they’ll be forced into allowing a game of football to break out. Which is a problem – because Manly’s defense stinks. It was bad already, and without both starting second-rowers (arguably the most important defenders in the Sea Eagles’ umbrella defense system), they’re woeful. And to compound matters, they’ve now also lost Marty Taupau from a forward pack that’s been outgained by over 1400m over the past 3 weeks. That leaves them with just one decent metre-eater – Addin Fonua-Blake, their only remaining forward who averages over 9 metres per carry (by comparison, the Sharks have 5). But, yeah – they hold an impressive home ground hoodoo over Cronulla. Good for them.
• Finally, we get to the Eels game. We do fancy Parramatta here, largely on account of their offensive success when playing at home. They’ve now scored 20+ points in 8 of 10 matches played at BankWest Stadium, including racking up scores against elite defenses such as Canberra, South Sydney and… Brisbane. Now, they get to face a Broncos side struggling so badly on that side of the ball that they just conceded 30 points to Canterbury (the most points the Dogs have scored in a game in over a year). So why aren’t we proclaiming Parramatta certain victors? Because, like the Raiders above, the Broncos have the potential to play a style that the Eels’ struggle with. Parramatta’s defense has been exceptional for the past 6 weeks, conceding 2 tries or fewer in all of those games. However, they all had something in common – the Eels conceded less than 1400 run metres, allowing them to protect their defense with a wealth of field position. But what happens when they concede more than 1400m in games? We’ll tell you: they average 5 tries conceded per game. This is interesting, because the Broncos have hit that magic mark in 16 of their 24 games this year (66% of matches). Admittedly, the Eels held Brisbane to just 2 tries in their last meeting, but they did it by containing them to just 1249m (and went on to lose that game, anyway). The point here is this: though we do believe that Parramatta have the points in them to run up a score here at home, they will need to shut down the big Broncos middles if they’re going to put themselves in a position to win (something that may be easier said than done for Parramatta, who rank just 8th in the league for RMCVOA). If they don’t, there’s potential here for the game to turn into a real attacking showcase, with both sides scoring in the neighbourhood of 20 points. If you’re a Parra fan, you’d rather it didn’t come to that.

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2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 118/184 (64%) (Last week: 6/8)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Roosters
• Eels
• Storm
• Raiders
• Broncos
• Dragons
• Sharks
• Knights

Notes

• Though we acknowledge that the Rabbitohs looked significantly better last week in demolishing an underwhelming New Zealand team – their handling in particular was extraordinary, with the side making just 5 errors in the match, paving the way for a dominant 58% possession share – we still can’t see this match being much of a contest. The Roosters come in on the back of a 7-match winning streak, during which they’ve posted a ridiculous LBVOA of 63.57% (a distant 1st), and averaged over 35 points per game. Their offense is lights-out the best in the NRL, and their defense has quietly climbed to be ranked 2nd, only trailing the Storm (did you know that while their offense has been filling the highlight reels, they’ve only conceded more than 2 tries in a match once since Round 16?). Quite simply, the only way we could see them losing this match is if they choose to, perhaps in order to take the pressure off from carrying a long winning streak into a potential Grand Final. But going by the team list, that doesn’t appear to be a part of their plans. Roosters, potentially by plenty.
• The Eels-Sea Eagles clash looms as a tricky match to predict, largely due to Parramatta’s patchy form whenever they’ve had to play good teams. Sure, they’ve looked like world-beaters at times, when they’ve been beating up on light-weights like the Titans and Tigers. However, they’ve struggled against Top 8 sides for most of the season. A relatively soft draw has seen them play just 10 matches against current Top 8 teams, and from those, they’ve managed to win just 4. The good news for Parramatta is that those wins have come almost exclusively at BankWest Stadium – where they’ll be playing on Friday night (they’ve won just 1 of 5 matches against Top 8 sides away from home, and even that was a technical home game that they took to Darwin). The second reason for blue-and-gold optimism is the loss of Tom Trbojevic for Manly. Statistically, his absence hasn’t actually been that devastating this year – their VOA output in most metrics drops off only slightly when he’s been missing. However, he does seem to add something intangible to the side. It can’t be ignored that the side have won 8 of the 9 matches he’s finished in 2019, compared to 6 of 14 without him. Though they may appear measurably fine in his absence, they seem to lack some mysterious quality that gets them over the line. We hypothesize that that quality is his ability to convert opportunities into tries. Consider this – though Manly’s line breaks per game are almost identical with and without Trbojevic (5.2 when he plays vs 4.8 without him), their tries scored drops from 4.1 to 3.2. Put differently, that means a drop in their LB conversion rate from 79% to just 65%. And most importantly, that difference can be traced directly to Trbojevic. The number of total line breaks for Trbojevic and his replacement Brendan Elliott are suprisingly similar – 15 v 11. However, while Trbojevic converts those opportunities almost automatically (either by scoring himself or by linking with a support player), Elliott seems chronically incapable of doing the same, with Elliott somehow sitting with just 2 try involvements compared to Trbojevic’s 19. And therein lies the rub. Though we don’t think Manly will be drastically worse overall in this game, we expect it to be close enough that every opportunity will matter – and as a rule, it seems that if there’s a try-scoring opportunity to be had, Brendan Elliott will find a way to blow it.
• Like everyone else on the planet, we agree that the Raiders are miles better than the Warriors, and we’ll be tipping them here accordingly. However, we feel the need to offer a word of caution: Canberra have opted to rest a host of key players for this match, including fullback Nicoll-Klokstad, winger Rapana and forwards Soliola and Bateman. Further, there’s halves cover on the bench in the form of Sam Williams, as well as a hooker in Siliva Havili, so in the event that the Rabbitohs get rolled on Thursday (making this game completely meaningless for Canberra), there’s potential for even more last-minute cuts. The team that’s been named is already substantially weaker than the bookies seem to have accounted for; if there winds up being even more trimming before kick-off, there may be a chance of a boilover.
• As we suggested would be the case two weeks ago, the Broncos‘ offense has been significantly improved with the addition of a bona fide halfback, with the side producing a LBVOA of 21.93% over the past fortnight. For context, that’s a better figure than what they’ve produced in all but 5 of their previous 21 matches (and Sean O’Sullivan was the halfback in one of those 5, too). So, what does supercoach Anthony Seibold do? He decides to immediately drop his halfback, in order to shoehorn a hooker into the #7 jersey. Figure that out.
• That being said, we’re still tipping Brisbane, but only because we’re not expecting much from the Bulldogs. They have nothing to play for after being officially eliminated from playoff contention last weekend, and will be without star fullback Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and centre Kerrod Holland. When you consider that Canterbury haven’t scored more than 3 tries in a game since May, it’s reasonable to think that any drop-off whatsoever in performance will make winning virtually impossible.
• All eyes will be on Leichardt Oval on Sunday afternoon when the Tigers and Sharks face off for a finals berth. Of course, if Kyle Flanagan could kick a goal, this match would be a complete non-event, after the Sharks out-scored the Raiders, only to somehow find a way to lose (again). But, here we are, and Cronulla need to find a way to regroup, refocus and – hopefully – kick goals. The Tigers put St George-Illawarra to the sword last week, extending their run of matches with 4 or more line breaks to 9 (a record only matched by – wait for it – Cronulla). As good as they’ve been over this period – and as we’ve been saying for weeks, they’ve actually been really good – the Sharks have nonetheless been better. Through their impressive 9-week stretch, the Tigers have posted an incredible LBVOA of 31.97%; however, that’s dwarfed by the Sharks’ 44.62% over the same period. This is a concern for us, mainly due to the Tigers propensity for getting blown out by high-end attacking units. On 6 separate occasions this year, they’ve given up 5 or more tries in a game (something the Sharks have done just twice), with 5 of those coming against Top 8 attacking sides (SPOILER ALERT: the Sharks rank 3rd in overall Offense VOA). With the Sharks having already torn through premium defenses like the Rabbitohs and Broncos this year, you’d have to think the Tigers will offer comparatively little resistance. The question then becomes this: how many tries will the Sharks actually require, if they only go up by fours? Think about it – Cronulla may be likely to run in 5 tries here, but there’s no guarantee that that leads to much more than 20 points – in which case the Tigers may very well be able to win with just 4 – a mark they’ve hit in 4 of their past 6 matches. We’re rolling with Cronulla almost out of stubbornness more than anything – we simply refuse to believe that a team can lose any more matches due to sub-standard goalkicking. However, if you believe that they still haven’t improved in that regard, we’d agree that the Tigers’ offense is good enough to get near enough to snatch it.

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2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 112/176 (64%) (Last week: 4/8)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Bulldogs
• Rabbitohs
• Broncos
• Knights
• Storm
• Roosters
• Sharks
• Tigers

Notes

• Let’s be clear: we haven’t changed our tune on the Bulldogs. We still have absolutely no interest in backing a team so completely incapable of scoring points. No interest, that is, unless they’re playing one of the two teams worse than them on offense – like this week’s opponent, the Cowboys. Though some may have been impressed with North Queensland’s 4-try effort against Penrith (just the 4th time all season they’ve scored 4 or more tries in a game), we’re of the view that it had far more to do with the apathetic Panthers defense than anything particularly enterprising from the Cowboys (and it’s worth noting that Penrith have conceded 4 or more tries in 4 of their last 5 matches, so at this point, 4 tries is pretty much par for the course). If we consider both offenses to be pretty dull, then the result is likely to be dictated by the defenses – and in that regard, this is a no contest. Over the past 6 weeks, the woefully inept Cowboys defense has delivered a LBCVOA of 39.92% (worst in the league) and unsurprisingly, that’s seen them bleed points, with North Queensland conceding 5 or more tries in half those matches, and at least 3 tries in 5 of the 6. In contrast, the recently-elite Bulldogs D has posted a LBCVOA of -13.62% over the same period (3rd in the NRL), and conceded 1 or fewer tries in half(!) those games. Perhaps most terrifyingly, 2 of those near-shutouts came against Top 5 offenses (South Sydney and Parramatta). In short, we don’t like picking the Bulldogs because they virtually never score more than 3 tries; but that should be plenty against a Cowboys side who may fail to register a point.
• The Friday night battle between the Broncos and the Eels presents as one of the more intriguing clashes of the round, with both sides being last-start losers, following recent stretches of unimpressive wins. Funnily enough, we were actually more impressed with Brisbane in defeat than we have been with anything they’ve shown in their recent wins. It may have taken a spate of injuries to force Anthony Seibold’s hand, but halfback Sean O’Sullivan was able to take advantage of another dominant platform laid by the Broncos’ pack, and finally generate a few scoring opportunities as a result. We can’t stress enough what a difference a legitimate halfback makes to a squad – the Broncos consistently dominate field position, yet are completely clueless when it comes to generating attacking opportunities (outside of Tevita Pangai Jr offloads). However, when they actually have a #7, their offense becomes serviceable – and in many cases, serviceable will be good enough to win, when you consider that recently they’ve consistently won both possession (5 of their last 6) and yardage (5 of their last 6). The evidence of O’Sullivan’s effect is obvious. He created 2 line break assists and 1 try assist against the Rabbitohs, and he has half the line break assists of team leader Anthony Milford for the season – despite having played just 4 matches. At home, and against a Parramatta side who just got gashed for 6 line breaks by Canterbury, we fancy they should be good enough to get home. The big test may come next week, when Jake Turpin returns from suspension to tempt Seibold into more team mismanagement – hopefully O’Sullivan turns in a screamer on Friday to save Seibold from himself.
• Like pretty much everyone else, we agree that the Knights are streets better than the Titans. However, we can’t help wondering how anyone can be a $1.25 favourite after an effort as insipid as what Newcastle turned in last weekend against the Tigers. Sure, the Titans are horrendous, but if the Knights are as disinterested here as they were last week, the Titans can most definitely win.
• Let us say two things about the Sea Eagles. First, Des Hasler’s blatant spoiling strategy that he employed successfully against Canberra (and Melbourne before that) is a piece of coaching brilliance. By doing whatever’s necessary to create a stop-start affair and prevent either side getting into a rhythm, Manly have been able to ensure low-scoring affairs, putting themselves in winnable positions against vastly superior opponents. Against the Raiders in particular, the Sea Eagles essentially dared Ashley Klein to sin-bin somebody by being persistently offside and relentlessly hanging on in the ruck, giving away a whopping 15 penalties before Klein decided to put his whistle away (and at which point, the untidiness in the ruck only got worse). Klein could have blown 50 penalties last week, such was the Sea Eagles’ determined intent to prevent a game of football from breaking out, and the strategy was a resounding success, holding the Raiders to less than 3 tries for the first time since Round 12. From a competitive standpoint, Hasler deserves a standing ovation. However, the second point though, is that such a strategy shouldn’t be facilitated by cowardly refereeing (what happened to using the sin-bin for consistent, intentional infringements?); and even if it is, it’s not a recipe for certain success. All it does is guarantee a close game, not a winning game. Indeed, were it not for the 8-point intercept try (a try which the NRL have since admitted should have been disallowed) Manly would have lost anyway, despite successfully destroying the game as a spectacle (and if you manage to make a Canberra game unenjoyable, you’ve really outdone yourself). In essence, this is a strategy that bad teams employ in order to compete against good teams (a strategy that the Tigers employed to great effect in 2018). So, we’re still not picking them here, and frankly, we sincerely hope they get bundled out of the finals as quickly as possible, so rugby league fans don’t have to suffer through any more of that nauseatingly unwatchable horseshit than necessary.
• If you needed any evidence of just how highly we rate the Sharks in 2019, look no further than the fact that we’re tipping them to roll The Obstruction Rule‘s sweethearts, the Raiders this week. We consider the Sharks the best chance we’ve seen of a team winning the competition from the bottom half of the 8, as they appear to be peaking at the right time of year. Their defense has been greatly improved since their Round 18 loss to the Warriors, conceding 3 or fewer line breaks in 4 of their last 5 matches (a standard they met just 7 times in their first 17 games). At the same time, their offense has gone berserk, creating 8 line breaks on 4 separate occasions over the same period. This is a formula that’s virtually unbeatable and unlikely to slow down, with the side having scored 18 points or more in every match since Wade Graham returned to the side, at an average of 29.75. We love Canberra, but you’d have think that given the Sharks’ recent run of form, plus the fact that this game will be Gal’s farewell from Shark Park, they’re just meeting Cronulla at the worst possible time (and even at the best possible time, the Sharks would still make it a contest).
• Having tipped an incoming breakout attacking performance by the Tigers for the past few weeks, we’d be patting ourselves on the back after Wests turned in an 8-try demolition of Newcastle… were it not for the fact that we tipped the Knights due to – of all reasons – the strength of their defense (*facepalm*). Nonetheless, we were still quietly pleased to see Wests open up the throttle, and can’t see any reason why they shouldn’t be able to do it again here. The Tigers are playing to keep their slim finals chances alive, and get to face a Dragons side who’ve been phoning it in for weeks (months?). St George-Illawarra have conceded less than 4 line breaks in a game just once since Round 6, and have conceded 5 or more tries in half their games since the start of July. With the Tigers in a bit of a purple patch, it’d take a drastic reversal of form from the Dragons for the Red Vee to get the chocolates here.

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2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 108/168 (64%) (Last week: 5/8)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Eels
• Panthers
• Rabbitohs
• Sharks
• Knights
• Roosters
• Storm
• Raiders

Notes

• We have to tip our hats to the Bulldogs‘ defense – we gave them virtually no chance of beating the Bunnies last week, but their stubborn D completely shut down their opponent for the 3rd week in a row, facilitating the surprise win. We still want no part in tipping a team who’s scored more than 18 points in a game just once in their past 11, but nevertheless, we have to acknowledge one thing at least – as long as their defense is performing at this level, they’ll at least be in a position to compete every week.
• Do we actually think they will win? Look – probably not. Given their inability to score, teams typically need only score 3 tries to beat Canterbury – something the Eels have achieved in all but 6 matches this year. Indeed, when the two sides met back in Round 2, the Eels pumped the Bulldogs 36-12. Add in the Bankwest Stadium Effect – where the Eels average almost 29 points per game – and it just seems like the odds are against the Doggies turning in another flawless display (indeed, there’s a fair argument that their recent impressive defensive results have had more to do with the offensive ineptitude of their opponents – Penrith, Wests and South Sydney – than anything the Bulldogs themselves have been doing).
• If either side’s recent performances are any indication, the Friday evening clash between the Cowboys and Panthers is likely to be borderline unwatchable. North Queensland are mired in a 5-match losing streak, while the Panthers surrendered control of their own destiny last week with the sort of insipid attacking effort that’s become a hallmark of their 2019 season. It’s pretty much indisputable at this point that Penrith are capable of significantly better football than North Queensland – the Cowboys rank dead last in every attacking metric we use, in addition to possessing the league’s 2nd worst defense. However, the Panthers remain their own worst enemy. One week, they’re blowing the doors off against an in-form contender like Cronulla. The next, they look like they’ve hardly met each other. They’ll surely have no shortage of motivation here, with their season now on life support, but the same could have been said last week (and for that matter, it’s every bit as likely that the Cowboys will be fired up to “do it for Matt Scott”, who suffered a mild stroke earlier this week). If Penrith turn it on, the Cowboys can’t possibly hang with them. But will they? Your guess is as good as ours.
• Please don’t confuse the Broncos‘ recent winning record as any sort of indication of form – if you’ve actually been unfortunate enough to watch them play, you’ll have seen that they’ve been dismal. Last week was no different, with the Panthers somehow still in a position to win the game inside the final 10 minutes, despite having played one of the worst games of football in recent memory (there was a point about half an hour into the clash where the Panthers had a sub-50% completion rate). If Brisbane were actually in decent form, they’d have eaten up Penrith for breakfast. Instead, they turned a wealth of field position into… well…not much at all, really, and needed an epic Payne Haas run (through some weak defense) to clinch the game.
• Much has been made of the loss of Tom Burgess this weekend for the Rabbitohs, as well as the potential loss of brother Sam. The concerns are well founded – Souths have been struggling for a while now, having won just 3 of their past 10 matches. But if a single player’s absence is going to decide this game, we should be looking at the other team. The Broncos have lost edge forward Tevita Pangai Jr to suspension, and he’ll take with him the only hint of offensive spark the Broncos have had for the past month. In addition to his 6 line break assists for the season (which ranks 3rd on his team), the Broncos will badly miss Pangai’s offloading ability. Pangai’s 46 effective offloads not only rank 1st in the NRL in 2019 – they’re more than triple any other player in the Broncos’ pack (Matt Lodge is the next closest, with just 14). Though offloads aren’t the be-all and end-all, they’re invaluable to a team such as Brisbane, whose halves are completely incapable of generating scoring opportunities (their team leader in line break assists, Anthony Milford, isn’t even in the top 30 in the league). If their halves aren’t creating opportunities and their second-phase play dries up, the Broncos should be pretty easy to shut down.
• The Tigers made us look foolish for talking them up as a good chance against Manly last week, getting comprehensively belted by an evidently superior opponent. That being said, we still think there’s a lot to like about the Wests. For a start, it’s worth acknowledging that the Tigers finished with just a 39% share of possession – with so little football, it’s virtually impossible for anyone to win. Secondly, though in many cases such a low possession share is the fault of the team involved, in this case it had more to do with the clinical execution of Manly (who forced 4 line drop outs, and conceded just 2 penalties) than anything particularly bad that the Tigers did. Finally, it can’t be ignored that despite having very little time in possession, the Tigers still managed to create 4 line breaks through the Sea Eagles’ defense. Though the scoreline looked bad, we stand by the position that with an even share of possession, the Tigers would have been in that game up to their eyeballs (or, in the very least, their elbows).
• Having said that, we’re still tipping the Knights here. Not because of their offense, which burst back to life last week in a 42-6 thumping of North Queensland. Rather, we fancy Newcastle because of their defense. Yes, the Knights’ attack looked sharp, but as mentioned above, we quite fancy the upside of the Tigers’ offense these days, too. However, on the defensive side of the ball, the Knights have been consistently superior – even though they’ve been losing for weeks. After a mid-season slump due to the mix-and-match approach to their edges, the Knights have trotted out the same edge combinations for the past 3 weeks in a row – and have been rewarded, posting a LBCVOA of -35.52% over the past fortnight (1st in the NRL). They’ll have a single forced change here due to the loss of Tautau Moga to injury, but that should be offset by a similar shift for the Tigers (where Robert Jennings comes into the side). In addition, their already-superb run defense (the Knights rank 2nd in the league for RMCVOA) should be further bolstered by the return of Tim Glasby. In what should be a competitive, quality game of football, we’d rather back the better defense – but still give the Tigers a good shout.
• Sea Eagles fans are well within their rights to be feeling good about themselves at the moment – they’ve won 7 of their past 9, and the Rabbitohs’ surprise loss last weekend lifted Manly into the Top 4. However, we expect them to find out exactly what a Top 4 standard team looks like on Sunday’s expedition to Canberra. The Eagles come armed with one of the league’s most explosive offenses, but the Raiders have been pretty sharp themselves of late, scoring 4 or more tries in 3 of their past 4, including a 4-try effort last week against the stupendously good Melbourne defense (for comparison, the Sea Eagles scored just 1 against the Storm four weeks ago). And unlike Manly, the Raiders back up their offense with one of the league’s best Ds. We mentioned above that Manly conceded 4 line breaks to the Tigers last week, despite a dominant 61% share of possession. That match was the 4th time in 5 weeks that the Sea Eagles have conceded 4 line breaks in a match. In comparison, the Raiders haven’t conceded that many in a game in over a month. We’d only give Manly a chance here in the event they can keep 55%+ of the football – something that’s near impossible against Canberra, because they’re constantly stripping the bloody thing (indeed, the Raiders have only been held to less than 48% possession once all year – their loss to Manly in Round 7, in which they were penalised out of the game, 13-5). Barring a similar referee intervention, we’re expecting a Canberra win, and quite possibly a comprehensive one.

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2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 103/160 (64%) (Last week: 5/8)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Sea Eagles
• Eels
• Panthers
• Knights
• Storm
• Rabbitohs
• Roosters
• Sharks

Notes

• Many have already written off the Tigers for this week, but don’t count The Obstruction Rule among them. Obviously last weekend’s loss to the crummy Bulldogs was disappointing, but it could be argued that they performed admirably under the circumstances. Let’s remember that the Tigers lost their two best players (Moses Mbye and Robbie Farah) within the opening quarter of the match, leaving them to play the rest of the match with a 2-man bench. The slow turning of the tide towards Canterbury was almost inevitable as fatigue took its toll on Wests, and yet still they were able to put themselves in position for a match-leveling kick at goal on the siren (the less said about that, the better). Indeed, the fact that the Tigers were able to generate 4 second half line breaks with a patch-work attacking unit speaks volumes to how well their offense has been operating of late. No Farah? No problem, as Benji Marshall took the reins and turned back the clock, almost single-handedly putting the team on his back through the late-game rally. We can’t quite pull the trigger on tipping them head-to-head, due to the quality of their opponent this week. However, at $3.40, they may be the best value of the week for an out-and-out smokie.
• Speaking of their opponents, don’t feel too down about the Sea Eagles last-start loss to New Zealand. Typically, losing to the Warriors is so shameful you’d keep it hidden from your wife, and instead claim you were away in Auckland for “a business trip”. On this occasion though, Manly weren’t even particularly bad – the Warriors were just awesome. Of course, there’s every possibility that we won’t see New Zealand play anywhere near that level again for the remainder of the season. But it serves as a timely reminder of just how good they can be.
• The Titans couldn’t have come at a better time for the Eels, whose offense has gone curiously AWOL over the past couple of weeks. Yes, they’ve been winning, but for a team whose early season success was built on their high-octane attacking game, it’s slightly concerning that they’re suddenly struggling for points, four weeks out from the finals. Over the past fortnight – during which they’ve played two bottom-eight teams, including the league’s 3rd-worst defense – they’ve mustered just a combined 5 line breaks. This would be disappointing for any team, but for a side who’ve made 5 or more line breaks in a single game on 7 separate occasions this year, it’s quite a drop-off. And when you remember that their defense ranks in the bottom-8 of the league, it’s mildly alarming. Thankfully, the Titans are on the menu here, and their “defense” has played many a struggling offense into form this year, most recently the Dragons, who came into their clash with the Titans having scored 3 tries or fewer in 5 games in a row… only to torch the Gold Coast D for 7. If the Eels sputter again here, we’ll be officially worried.
• The Broncos-Cowboys clash last Thursday night was the worst game of rugby league played this year. Let’s never speak of it again.
• If you’re wondering how exactly the Panthers managed to roll the more talented Sharks outfit last weekend, the answer is simple: possession and field position. This is the recipe to beating any team armed with an offense as dangerous as Cronulla’s. The fact that Penrith were able to convert their early dominance into points was certainly beneficial, but the real key here was the fact that it protected their defense. Remember, this is a Cronulla team with the 3rd-highest LBVOA in the league, and coming off a 6-try effort against the 2nd-best defense in the NRL. The fact that Penrith were able to hold them to a single first half try is how they won this game. In the second half – when possession and field position tipped in favour of Cronulla – the Panthers’ defense was futile in attempting to stop the Sharks’ juggernaut… but the damage had already been done. The Panthers will be looking for more of the same here against the Broncos, who depend almost exclusively on winning through the middle of the field to generate points. FUN FACT #1: When the Broncos make over 1500m in a game, they’ve scored 3 or more tries in 9 of 11 games. FUN FACT #2: When the Broncos make less than 1500m in a game, they’ve scored 3 or more tries in just 2 of 9. FUN FACT #3: The Panthers have the 2nd-best RMCVOA in the league, and have conceded 1500m or more just 3 times all year.
• We’ve written at length of late about the Knights‘ recent defensive issues, but now their offense has also fallen off a cliff. Over the last fortnight – in which they’ve played two bottom-8 defenses – the Knights have somehow scored just 3 combined tries, and made just 2 combined line breaks. The loss of Jesse Ramien’s tackle-busting ability was particularly glaring last weekend against the Eels, where Newcastle made just 10 tackle breaks all game – against an opponent with the 3rd-worst TBCVOA in the league. Against almost any other team in the league (and that “almost” is the Gold Coast), there’s no way in the world we’d be picking Newcastle. However, they’re at home, and have the luxury of playing the only offense in the league traveling worse than theirs (last week, the Cowboys made zero line breaks against the Broncos, and somehow broke just 8 tackles in 80 minutes of football. Woof). So, we’re holding our noses and backing them in.
• If you’re wondering why we rarely write about the Storm, it’s because they’re that much better than everybody else in the league, that it really goes without saying (and if you need to be told that the Storm are awesome, we’re not really sure what you’re doing on this site to begin with). Last weekend was just another day in the life for Melbourne, as they torched the NRL’s 2nd-best defense to the tune of 10 line breaks. To give you an idea of just how phenomenal the 2019 Storm actually are, consider the following: so far this year, there have been just 7 occasions in which a team has made double-digit line breaks in a game. The Melbourne Storm have made three of those. Oh, and they also have the best defense in the league, to boot. Ricky Stuart said post-match last week that if the Raiders had to play the Grand Final tomorrow, he believes they could win. It seems the rugby league genie was listening, as he gets his wish immediately – a date with the Storm. Good luck, Sticky.
• The undeserved smugness emanating from Belmore after back-to-back wins for the Bulldogs will be brought to an abrupt halt this weekend. They still can’t score (they’ve scored more than 3 tries in just 3 of 20 matches this year), and are running into an offense just about ready to explode. The Rabbitohs are averaging over 5 line breaks per game over the past month, yet have scored more than 20 points just twice. We know that tries tend to follow line breaks, so we’re expecting an avalanche of points to arrive soon. And while the Rabbitohs’ defense has been ripped apart over the past fortnight (they’ve conceded 10 tries and 18 line breaks in their past two games combined), that was against the two most in-form attacking units in the league (Melbourne and Cronulla) – something the Bulldogs most certainly aren’t. Souths by plenty.
• Both the Warriors and Roosters were terrific last week, but as mentioned earlier, the Roosters are terrific every week; the Warriors are… not.
• Though the Dragons managed a win last weekend against the Gold Coast, let’s not forget that they still managed to concede 28 points to the team coming last (and who hadn’t scored more than 20 in over 2 months). Against a Sharks squad who’ve now made 8 line breaks in each of their past 3 games, there’s a very real risk that this could get ugly.

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