2018 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 106/184 (58%)
Line Betting: 38/82 (46%)
2017 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%
Line Betting: 55%
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NRL Round 25 Tips and Previews
Rabbitohs v Tigers
Offense VOA: Rabbitohs 39.75% (1st), Tigers -12.07% (11th)
Defense VOA: Rabbitohs -12.74% (5th), Tigers 4.05% (10th)
Round 25 opens with what could have been a do-or-die clash for the Tigers. Had the Panthers rolled the Warriors, or the Roosters beaten Brisbane, everyone would have been talking about this game.
And the Tigers would’ve been in with a huge chance, too. Their tough middle defense matches up well against the Rabbitohs’ bigs, and when the two sides last met, they held the high-octane Rabbitohs offense to just 6 points (the only time Souths have scored less than 12 all year). Their attack is spotty (outside of a brief 4-minute spurt against Manly, their offense was nauseatingly bad last week), but it has its moments, and if they can hold Souths to 2 or 3 tries, they could seriously win here.
But, it wasn’t to be. And now, instead of the Tigers battling for their season, they instead have a largely meaningless evening of sports, against a South Sydney side jostling for Top 4 positioning. To make matters worse, Wests have lost their front row enforcer, Russell Packer; while their opponents get to add Robert Jennings back into a three-quarter line that just regained Alex Johnston, Greg Inglis and Campbell Graham a week ago (the new faces had little impact against Canberra, but they’ll be better for the run).
Finally, it’s worth noting that after the Tigers’ dominant win over Souths in Round 19, the Rabbitohs opened up the playbook a bit and demonstrated a bit more attacking enterprise in putting 30 points on the Storm, before a mounting injury toll completely derailed their offense (in Rounds 22 & 23 – when the Rabbitohs were without all of Inglis, Jennings, Graham, Adam Douehi and Johnston – South Sydney’s LBVOA plummeted to -20.23%, despite being 39.01% for the year). They admittedly weren’t any better last week either, but they didn’t get much of an opportunity to be – they gifted the match to Canberra via a whopping 14 errors, and got hammered 10-6 in the penalty count, to boot.
But here, with their strike weapons all one game further into their comebacks, and against a team playing only for pride, we’re expecting the Rabbitohs to have too much firepower. It’s a shame – this game projects closely enough, and the Rabbitohs have been sufficiently out-of-sorts (they’re currently on a 3-match losing streak), that we’d otherwise probably back the Tigers in here. Instead, we’re expecting relatively little resistance, and the Rabbitohs to get back on track.
Our tip: Rabbitohs