2018 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 103/176 (59%)
Line Betting: 37/78 (47%)
2017 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%
Line Betting: 55%
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NRL Round 24 Tips and Previews
Tigers v Sea Eagles
Offense VOA: Tigers -15.02% (12th), Sea Eagles 7.36% (5th)
Defense VOA: Tigers 4.19% (10th), Sea Eagles 10.04% (14th)
The last month or so has seen Thursday nights turn into the evening for upsets; which makes us immediately ask the question: ‘why not Manly?’.
Well, there’s a few obvious reasons. They’re coming in off the back of an embarrassing home loss to the Titans, which was the 4th time in their last 5 games that they’ve conceded 28 or more points in a match. They’ve won just 3 of their last 11 matches, and are now facing an away trip to Campbelltown, where they’ll take on a Tigers side who must win in order to keep their season alive, and who thumped them 38-12 back in Round 6. It’s not ideal.
But it’s also not impossible.
For as magical as the Tigers’ story has been, they haven’t been playing particularly well of late themselves. We warned you in last week’s preview that their numbers against Canberra were inflated by the Raiders’ ineptitude, and they proved us correct – turning in an ugly, mistake-riddled performance in losing to the Dragons last week. In fact, outside of the Canberra Stadium outlier, the Tigers have scored just 6 tries in their other 3 games since Round 20, and only made 7 line breaks. Of course, we’d expect their offense to find a bit more success against Manly (just about everyone finds success against Manly), but it’s likely a mistake to assume that the Tigers will automatically post a big total just because they’re playing the Sea Eagles.
Not to mention that the Tigers’ defense isn’t that good, either. Yes, for the most part it’s better than Manly’s, but you may be interested to learn that over the last 4 weeks, the two sides have an almost identical LBCVOA of 1.17% and -3.09% – with Manly’s being the slightly better one. Add in the loss of the Tigers’ best middle defender, Elijah Taylor, and perhaps we shouldn’t be immediately assuming that the Tigers’ defense will be the difference.
Of course, it’s still difficult to back the Sea Eagles here. Last week, they managed to post 34 points, and they still lost. The Tigers have all the motivation in the world, while the Eagles seem to just be counting down the days until the end of the season. But if we’re purely discussing football ability – and we remember that it is Thursday – we keep coming back to that question: ‘why not Manly?’.
Our tip: Sea Eagles