2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 32/48 (67%) (Last week: 7/8)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Panthers
• Storm
• Roosters
• Knights
• Broncos
• Eels
• Sea Eagles
• Tigers

Notes

• One of the great mysteries of 2020 is the year-on-year improvement of the Panthers‘ defense. Through six rounds, the Panthers have held all but one of their opponents to 16 points or less, and they’ve achieved this despite having faced 4 of the top six offenses. They face the last of the top attacking teams this weekend (Penrith themselves are the sixth) when they meet South Sydney. Once they’re through that, the schedule really opens up for Penrith, with their defense only exposed to one more game against a team with an offense with a positive VOA (the return bout with Parramatta in Round 18). With Penrith built to grind field position and defend their way to victory, this makes for an extremely favourable run home, and a gold-plated path to the Top 4.
• But first, they have to get through the Rabbitohs. South Sydney put New Zealand to the sword last week after Kodi Nikorima got himself sin binned, putting 2 tries past the Warriors (and effectively ending the game) while he was parked in the sheds. Prior to that effort though, their numbers had been steady, if unspectacular. The main concern for Souths will be the likelihood that their pack gets monstered by the gorillas from Sydney’s west. Through the first five weeks, South Sydney’s highest run metre total was 1392m; through the first six rounds, that number is also Penrith’s lowest. This disparity has led to Penrith featuring the 4th highest RMVOA in the competition, while South Sydney feature the 4th lowest. This suggests that Souths are likely to struggle for field position, especially if they turn in yet another fumble-fingered effort (they’ve made 14 or more errors in half their games so far; Penrith have yet to do it once). And of course, when they eventually do get down there, they still have to score – something that teams have found frustratingly difficult to do against the Pennies. If Souths produce numbers similar to last week, they do have the ability to trouble Penrith. However, we put a big part of those numbers down to a weak effort from New Zealand, and as such, expect Souths to regress accordingly.
• If you’re a believer that teams who sack their coach always win the following week, then by all means tip the Warriors. But be aware that New Zealand have done absolutely nothing to warrant support here, and on form, may struggle to score a point against the league’s best defense. For what it’s worth, we’re more inclined to believe that the Storm never back up a loss with a bad effort – they haven’t lost two games back-to-back since Rounds 21 & 22 in 2018, and even that was only a 3-point defeat to Cronulla (who made the preliminary final that year). You’d have to go all the way back to 2015 to find consecutive losses of 6 or more (and even that was in an Origin period, where they rested half their spine). In short, we expect the Storm to turn up to play on Friday, against an opponent hopelessly out of their depth.
• As much as we’d love to see the Dragons get the chocolates here, we simply can’t make any argument for how they might be able to compete. Sure, they’ve now won 2 games on the trot, but those wins came against two of the worst teams in the competition, and frankly, against the Gold Coast they weren’t even especially good. Though it was nice to see them finally keep an opponent to less than 3 tries, there’s virtually zero chance that that happens here, against a Roosters offense who’ve now made 6 or more line breaks in their past 5 games in a row. We’d only really recommend this game to sickos who enjoy watching once-great clubs get massacred.
• Speaking of massacres, the real battle of the weekend may be between the Roosters and Knights to see who can run up the biggest score. Yes, the Roosters come armed with the most explosive weapons, but it’s the Knights who get to face a defense that has so far been, at best, hypothetical. We wrote last week about the ineptitude of the Cowboys D, who on the weekend added the Tigers (whose offense VOA is a pedestrian -1.33%) to the list of teams who’ve run up a score against them. Here, they’ll finally get to face an offensive heavyweight – the #2 offense, who’ve scored 20+ in 4 of their 6 games so far. The loss of Bradman Best for Newcastle is disappointing, but against a D that just got lit up for 9 line breaks by the Tigers, it’s unlikely to make a difference. Newcastle by a cricket score.
• The Titans remain the worst team in the NRL. Next.
• If you’d asked us a month ago, we’d have confidently backed the Raiders for the win here, but at this point, their right edge defense is so disgustingly bad that every coach in the competition knows how to beat them. Curtis Scott is only dependable if you’re depending on him to make the worst defensive decision imaginable in any given situation, while Nic Cotric somehow manages to miss a third of the tackles he attempts. Unsurprisingly then, that duo have combined for 12 line break causes between them (with typical right second rower Joseph Tapine adding another 4). Pairing this combination against the in-form Eels duo of Michael Jennings and Maika Sivo (who have a combined 12 try involvements and 8 line breaks) looks like a complete mismatch. Ricky Stuart needs to find a solution, and that solution sure ain’t Curtis Scott.
• The Sea Eagles/Sharks clash is definitely the trickiest match of the round to pick, if only because of the long-term injury to Tom Trbojevic. To be clear, we don’t think Cronulla are very good – on the weekend, they limped home to a narrow win over a side whose primary aspiration is to not come last. Cronulla’s offense has so far barely fired a shot, being to held to 3 or fewer line breaks in all six matches they’ve played so far. Against the Sea Eagles – who possess the 5th best LBCVOA in the league – we’d be surprised if they score more than 2 tries. That being said, we have the same doubts about Manly. Without Trbojevic for the last half hour against Canberra, the Sea Eagles were completely impotent, making zero line breaks and scoring just a penalty goal, despite dominating possession 56-44 in the period. Granted, they’ll be better off with a full bench and a week’s preparation, but it remains difficult to see where their points will come from. As it stands, we’ve backed the Sea Eagles on the grounds that if both offenses struggle, we’d rather be on the team with an elite defense. And that team is Manly.

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2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 25/40 (63%) (Last week: 5/8)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Knights
• Rabbitohs
• Panthers
• Dragons
• Tigers
• Roosters
• Raiders
• Sharks

Notes

• The Broncos gave a much better account of themselves last week, particularly defensively, conceding just  15 tackle breaks (their season best) and allowing over 500 fewer metres than their first two games since the resumption. That’s a positive sign for the unit, but is unlikely to be enough against Newcastle. Kotoni Staggs is a huge out for Brisbane, having made twice as many line breaks as any of his teammates (4) on his way to scoring 5 tries (no other Bronco has more than 1). Their improved D may help prevent a blow-out, but without Staggs, we doubt Brisbane have the points in them to keep up with the Knights‘ #2-ranked offense.
• The Warriors were fabulous last weekend, somehow putting 7 tries on North Queensland, after managing just 4 in the opening 4 weeks combined (though admittedly, this is largely a reflection of just how ordinary the Cows’ defense is). Against the Rabbitohs though, they’ll face a much sterner test (Souths rank 8th in Defense VOA). Despite the Bunnies running up a bit of a score against the Gold Coast, we’re anticipating a low-scoring affair here. Though Souths’ 5 line breaks last weekend may look impressive on the surface, the shine fades once you notice that the Titans are conceding almost 7 per game – making the Rabbitohs effort a fair whack below average in actuality. We still expect Souths to win, but anticipate another decent showing by the Kiwis, in what’s likely to be a dour, low-scoring affair.
• After a horror 6 minute stretch cost the Panthers last weekend (and cost us the opportunity to look like geniuses), we’re doubling down and backing the Pennies to get it done against the Storm. Putting aside the result, it’s hard not to be impressed by just how strong the Panthers have been. Though 2 soft line breaks jump off the highlight reel (we suspect Waqa Blake’s palm may still be lodged deep in the chest of Stephen Crichton), we should remember that the Panthers conceded just 1 other break in the entire match – a match in which they gave up a 54% possession share to a team averaging almost 5 line breaks per game. As a result, Penrith now stand as the only remaining team to have held every side they’ve faced to 3 or fewer breaks. Granted, they face the only defense better than theirs this weekend, but the gap in the two sides’ offensive production so far is arguably greater – and favours the Panthers. While Penrith have rolled along creating 4 or more line breaks in all but one match this season, the Storm have hit that mark just twice. The issue for Melbourne has been a lack of production from anyone other than Cameron Smith. While the Panthers’ halves rotation of Cleary, Luai and Burton have combined for 7 line break assists between them, their Melbourne counterparts (Munster, Hughes and Jacks) have combined for just 4. Granted, it’s comparatively easy to rack up assists when your job is simply to shovel the ball to Viliame Kikau, but hey – it works. Melbourne, on the other hand, are still struggling to hit their stride. Of course, we still believe Melbourne are good enough to win here – they’ve been too good for too long to be quickly written off. But if we’re making a call based on the two sides’ performances so far, the fact of the matter is that Penrith have been better. Now they just need to prove it.
• The good news for the Dragons: their latest spine combination (Dufty; Norman; Clune; McInnes) seems to have been a hit, with the side producing their season-best TBVOA (27.18%), and their highest LBVOA since Round 1 (35.89%) against the Sharks. The bad news: their D showed no measurable signs of improvement, performing at the same consistently poor level that has seen them win just 1 of their opening 5 games. Fortunately, that should all be academic against the Titans – a defense so bad, they make St George look like Melbourne. Last weekend, the Gold Coast conceded 30+ points for the 3rd time so far, and they’ve now conceded at least 23 points in every game they’ve played. As a result, the Dragons look like a great bet to make it two-in-a-row, meaning Mary’s probably another week away from a three-year extension.
• Oh my goodness – how bad is the Cowboys defense? We’ll tell you how bad – they’ve conceded the 4th most points in the NRL this season, despite having only faced the offenses rated 10th, 13th, 14th, 15th and 16th. All but one of those sides posted their highest try total of the season against North Queensland, at a combined average of 22.6 points per game. If the Cowboys are getting shredded by the worst offenses in the league, we can’t help but wonder how ugly it could get when they finally face a good team. Unfortunately, we won’t get to find out this week, as the stodgy Tigers offense gets their turn at boosting their offensive average. That being said, 22 should be more than enough points for Wests to get the chocolates, backed by a defense who’ve held every opponent to 4 or fewer line breaks. Better still, with defensive liability Benji Marshall dropped last week, that defensive improved even further to produce a LBCVOA of -47.30% – good enough for first in the league. Granted, it came at the cost of drying up their offense completely; but with the Cowboys on deck this week we wouldn’t worry too much about that.
• The Eels got away with one against Penrith, but don’t be expecting that to be replicated here. The Roosters offense is operating at the highest level we’ve ever recorded, producing a staggering offense VOA of 73.02%. The Eels’ defense is reasonable, but relies on hoarding possession to hide its weaknesses. In their two games with 63%+ of possession, they’ve conceded just 2 line breaks per game. In their remaining three matches – where they’ve had between 48%-54% – that more than doubles to 4.3. Against a unit such as Sydney’s, who’ve racked up 6 or more in every game since Week 2, Parramatta would need north of 60% again, just to stand a chance.
• It’s a real tragedy that the Sea Eagles will be without Marty Taupau this weekend, because we’re firmly of the view that they’ve otherwise got a great shot to pull off an upset. Manly’s offense is electric (#5 overall), and their match-up with a Raiders D that’s leaked 18 line breaks since the resumption looks absolutely delicious (for comparison’s sake, the eye-wateringly bad Gold Coast D has only conceded 17 over the same period). However, the loss of Taupau makes us hesitate to pull the trigger. The issue is that there’s no side in the competition less equipped to handle the loss of a major yardage contributor than Manly. The Sea Eagles have a dire lack of middle forward depth, meaning that Taniela Paseka will likely be required to significantly lift his workload (he currently averages just 30 minutes a game) to prevent their go-forward grinding to a halt for an extended period when the bench takes over. With Taupau missing for most of the game against Brisbane, his side’s adjusted run metres dropped over 100m below average. A similar performance here would invite the Raiders to camp down Manly’s end, effectively limiting the ability of strike players like Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans to impose themselves on the game, and waste what is otherwise a favourable match-up.
• After being on the receiving end of a footballing clinic on Monday night, the Bulldogs must be relieved to see the bog-average Sharks appear on the schedule. At this point, both sides look like bottom-4 material, making this surprisingly hard to tip. That being said, we’re thinking that Canterbury may be just the side to provide a 2020 coming-out party for Andrew Fifita. Fifita looked slow and ineffective last week against St George-Illawarra, leading to internet trolls coining the term “Fatfita” (kids can be cruel). However, considering Fifita’s style – he’s a sideways-running, tackle-breaking, offload machine – Canterbury may be just the tonic to his ills. Here, he’ll a face an engine room loaded with as many as 4 forwards ranking outside the league’s top 150 players in tackle efficiency (a group headlined by interchange forward Dean Britt, who somehow manages to lead the entire league in missed tackles, while only playing 44 minutes a game). Against this motley crew of jersey-grabbers, Fifita has the perfect opportunity to excel, and hopefully create the second-phase play required for his misfiring halves to generate something.

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2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 20/32 (63%) (Last week: 5/8)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Sea Eagles
• Cowboys
• Panthers
• Rabbitohs
• Storm
• Raiders
• Roosters
• Sharks

Notes

• The Sea Eagles didn’t lose last week due to that howler of a call by the touchie (though it certainly returned the refs to the back page with a bang). No, Manly’s problem was the same as it is every other week – a lack of field position, due to a dire shortage of quality forwards. Addin Fonua-Blake carried the load as usual, but the giant Tongan can only do so much. Taniela Paseka was handy in a 31-minute cameo, but Manly need to find more ways to work their way downfield. Marty Taupau is typically better than he showed against Parramatta, however the combination of under-sized edge forwards, poor starts to sets by the wingers, and the eternal momentum-killer Jake Trbojevic (who – for those of you following along at home – ranks 305th in the league for metres per carry) leave Manly perpetually starvedof field position. Which is a crying shame – when they actually get down the other end of the field, the Eagles may be the best attacking team in the league (and if not, they’re certainly in the conversation). Gifted offense or not though, they’ll continue to lose games like that while ever they’re forced to play the majority of them from their own half.
• They’ll be pleased to see the Broncos on this week’s schedule, then. After shredding North Queensland and Souths over the opening fortnight, Brisbane’s pack have been dismal since the resumption, failing to exceed 1050m in either of their past two games (for context, every other team in the comp has exceeded that mark, in both outings). If you’re wondering where those metres have gone, the answer lies in their post-contact metres – after averaging 582 PCM in their first two games, that number’s collapsed by over 200m, falling to 362m. The biggest disappointment for us has been Thomas Flegler, who’s seen his PCM implode from 75m per game to just 19; but the whole pack’s been terrible. Indeed, after leading the entire team – forwards included – in PCM last week, Corey Oates has been shifted into the pack to provide some go-forward. When you’re forced to lean on a re-purposed winger to provide grunt to your engine room, the signs are not good. Not good at all.
• We want to give a shout-out to the Warriors ahead of their clash with the Cowboys this week – through four weeks, New Zealand sit alongside Melbourne and Penrith as the only teams to have conceded 3 or fewer line breaks in every game so far. Of course, they still lose a lot because their offense is on the verge of being historically bad (they’ve been held to nil in half their matches so far); but their D has actually been decent. If defense is a reflection of attitude, we can safely say that the Warriors aren’t losing due to a lack of effort, but rather through a lack of ability. That defense should keep them competitive though, and when they run into ordinary defenses – like North Queensland – they’ll be a chance of falling over the line a few times, and providing a defendable total. We can’t tip them, but we won’t write them off, either.
• The Battle of the West on Friday night looks like an absolute belter, with two of the three remaining undefeated sides going head-to-head. Popular opinion says the Eels are the team to beat in 2020, but we’re not buying in (yet), and actually fancy the Panthers as exactly the kind of match-up they could struggle with. The tricky aspect for Parramatta is the way they’ve been winning football games. Their offense isn’t especially flash; rather, they depend on weight of possession and field position to do any damage. Similarly, there are serious question marks over their D, that has so far been sheltered by whopping possession advantages. They kept the league’s worst offense to 2 line breaks in Week 1; in Weeks 2 & 3, they had 65% and 63% of the possession, respectively. Week 4 was the first game Parramatta have played against a competent opponent with an even possession share – and they got lit up for 7 line breaks. Why is this important? Because in Penrith they’ll be facing a team ranked 3rd in LBVOA, and who’ve so far won the possession battle in every game so far. Parra’s pack have been superb, and the Eels have won all their matches as a result. But in Penrith, they find an opponent with a better pack, a surprisingly stout defense, and a similar ability to retain possession. Expect a dour, physical arm wrestle.
• Phil Gould made the point on 100% Footy on Monday night that he believes the Rabbitohs are about to go on a tear. After looking into their form line… we agree. It’s not immediately obvious because of all the losing they’ve been doing, but Souths’ numbers have been progressively improving each week. While their season numbers are still poor, the trend is positive; last week, for example, they turned in a RMVOA of -1.15% – bad, but a huge improvement from their season average of -7.27% (2nd worst in the league). Similarly, their TBVOA of 60.35% last week would be good enough to place them 1st for the season. Defensively, they turned in a LBCVOA of -27.37% last week – the first time this season they’ve been above average. In short, they do seem to be getting better – which could be terrible news for the Titans.
• We’re not getting carried away with the Knights‘ offense (Canberra’s edge D was absolutely woeful last weekend), but we do need to acknowledge how dominant Newcastle’s middles were last weekend. Canberra’s pack is generally considered to be a major strength of theirs, so to see every member of the Knights’ pack not named Aidan Guerra go for 10m per carry last week was eye-opening. The big knock on Newcastle over the past two years has been that the ineptitude of their forwards consistently denied their brilliant attacking weapons the field position required to excel (for a 2020 example see: Sea Eagles, Manly). Though it’s only Week 4, that doesn’t appear to be a problem any more – and if it isn’t, they might just be the real deal. What better test is there than facing the Storm? We’re tipping Melbourne, largely due to their elite run defense (they once again rank 1st in the league for RMCVOA), but please don’t mistakenly consider this a gimme – it may yet turn out to be a Grand Final preview.
• As far as inexplicably bad coaching decisions go, it’s hard to go past Michael Maguire’s decision to drop Benji Marshall from the Tigers‘ team this weekend. Don’t get us wrong, we understand it – when you get licked by the worst team in the comp, something has to give, and Benji has been a defensive liability this year, conceding 7 line breaks so far (the 2nd most in the league, only behind the Titans’ Phillip Sami [how a bloke named at fullback each week has conceded 8 line breaks while barely featuring in the line at all is a true mystery, but we digress]). The issue, though, is that by dropping Benji, Maguire is dropping the only Tigers player who’s done anything on offense. Marshall personally has 4 line break assists – the rest of the team combined have managed just 5. Though removing Marshall theoretically strengthens their D, at what cost? The timing is particularly curious, with Wests running into Canberra this week – a team who haven’t scored fewer than 20 points in a game against the Tigers since 2015. The Tigers will need all the points they’ve got in them against Canberra, and will be forced to pin their hopes on the curious attacking stylings of Luke Brooks. Yuck.
• It’s not all good news for the Raiders though. We warned you last weekend that Canberra’s stats against Melbourne were a lot worse than the scoreboard suggested, and they backed it up with another defensive clunker against Newcastle. That game was the 2nd week in a row that the Raiders have conceded 7 or more line breaks – not at all the defensive standard you’d expect from a premiership heavyweight. The problem for Canberra is easy to identify – their right edge defense is utterly hopeless. Nic Cotric, Joseph Tapine and Curtis Scott have now conceded 5, 4 and 3 line break respectively on the season – bad enough to place them 6th, 12th and 24th worst in the league (for comparison, the opposite edge – Simonsson, Whitehead and Croker, have conceded 3, 1 and 1). We don’t have the answer, but with some high octane attacking units on the horizon (Canberra play Manly and Sydney within the coming month) they need to tighten this up in a hurry, or risk dropping out of the Top 4.
• Though the return of Matt Moylan to the starting side brought a win for the Sharks, their offense wasn’t noticeably better – rather, they just managed to be the slightly less shit team in a really, really ordinary game of footy. This week, Chad Townsend returns to the spine, and Andrew Fifita makes his season debut in the pack. If this week’s edition of the Sharks can’t generate some decent offense against the comatose Dragons, we might just have to stick a fork in them. We’re backing them again, but also growing increasingly suspicious that perhaps Cronulla just aren’t very good.

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2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 15/24 (63%) (Last week: 4/8)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Roosters
• Panthers
• Storm
• Eels
• Sharks
• Raiders
• Tigers
• Dragons

Notes

• The scoreline wasn’t flattering, but it’s difficult to judge just how bad the Broncos were last week, as their 37% possession share (largely the result of being hammered 9-3 in the penalty count) denied them any hope of being competitive. That being said, bleeding 9 line breaks is inexcusable regardless of possession, and it doesn’t get any easier this week against the league’s best offense, the Roosters. After losing their first two matches, the Roosters are rounding into some form, making 6 line breaks in each of their past two games. They must be licking their lips at the thought of facing a D that just got shredded by Parramatta.
• Though the Panthers‘ inability to put away a wounded Newcastle side may lead some readers to mistakenly assume Penrith’s offense is cactus, we’d warn you not to be so hasty. The Panthers’ lack of second half points (or, for that matter, much of anything) was clearly the result of a coaching directive, not any lack of ability from the players. Penrith came out and kicked early in the their opening three sets after half-time – indicating a half-time adjustment to control field position and grind out the win (an infuriatingly shit half-time adjustment, but an adjustment nonetheless). Against an opponent reduced to a 2-man bench and missing their entire first-choice spine, we can understand why Ivan Cleary thought his side could win this way, but we vehemently disagree that that’s it’s how they should have approached it. The Knights were so shot that a single try would have iced the game, but Penrith’s conservative approach left the door open for an unlikely comeback – a comeback that ultimately arrived on the back of 4 set restart penalties. Our hope is that Cleary learnt his lesson and from here on out will let the boys play – even after including the most uninspired attacking half of footy this year, the Panthers still rank 1st in the league for overall line breaks and LBVOA, and 5th for points scored (and two of the teams above them have had the chance to inflate their totals, after already receiving the Gold Coast Gift).
• Should the Panthers instead decide to persist with their safety-first conservative second-half style, then this weekend’s clash with the Warriors could be the dreariest 80 minutes of the season. Ivan Cleary merely adopted a dull attacking style; Stephen Kearney was born in it. New Zealand’s drudgery ultimately culminated in a record-setting completion rate last weekend, going error-free for over 72 minutes. But let’s not kid ourselves – it didn’t result in a significant influx of points, and the side’s 4 total line breaks for the season has been exceeded by Penrith in every individual game they’ve played so far.
• Though Canberra’s 22-6 thumping of the Storm was the story of the week, we warn you: reports of Melbourne’s death has been greatly exaggerated. The Storm stomped all over the Raiders in just about every statistical category imaginable: line breaks, tackle breaks, run metres, errors, forced drop-outs, post-contact metres… you name it. Over a large enough sample size, that sort of dominance will lead to an outrageous volume of wins – and who were they were dominating? The competition favourites. So, we shouldn’t be giggling about the apparent downfall of the juggernaut from down south; we should be terrified. We like them here, and expect them to win handily.
• We certainly weren’t expecting it, and we’re still not that impressed by the Eels running up the score on Brisbane. They had all the running in the first half, and yet without the help of a few set restart penalties, they’d have failed to score a first half point. So no, that’s not why we’re tipping them here. Rather, it’s because of how surprisingly dominant they’ve been in yardage. The Eels’ back three are all among the top 25 in run metres in the league, in addition to key middle, Junior Paulo. In effect, this gives them three extra forwards, and allows their largely unheralded pack to play far above its weight, by attacking a retreating defense. This huge run metre advantage is then further compounded by their run defense (ranked 2nd in RMCVOA), leaving opposition sides eternally camped down their own end. Though we like the Sea Eagles better as a team generally, we don’t like this as a match-up. Marty Taupau and Addin Fonua-Blake are already forced to do too much of the heavy lifting for Manly, due to a lack of forward depth; in the face of negative field position, they’re likely to be forced into longer minutes, or else Manly run the risk of getting crushed while they’re off the field. Either way, we just don’t like it.
• The Cowboys/Sharks game is difficult to pick, on account of their weird form lines. The Cows are known for their dreadful attacking footy, but look to have turned it around a bit this season with the addition of Valentine Holmes. But look closer: though they’ve made line break totals of 4, 5 and 9 in their three games so far, those came with possession shares of 54%, 56% and 64%, and against defenses that have all conceded at least 8 line breaks in a game to other teams. In short, there’s plenty of reason to suspect that their uptick in production has been a mirage. And just quietly, their own D hasn’t been too flash, allowing the 2nd worst LBCVOA in the competition. This makes us think that the Cowboys may be just ripe to play the Sharks back into a little form. Cronulla have struggled so far offensively with Matt Moylan limited to just 46 minutes this season, but he’s starting at five-eighth this week, and remains one of the most consistently effective players in the league at generating line break assists. His return, against a D we believe looks suspiciously brittle, has us backing Cronulla for an upset.
• To be honest, we don’t particularly want to watch the Bulldogs/Dragons game any more than you do. Both these teams are superbly one-dimensional, and frankly, that one dimension isn’t very good. For the record though, we do believe that the Dragons are at least capable of playing good football in theory (though admittedly we can’t remember the last time we saw it). Shifting Corey Norman to fullback is a huge plus, as it both removes Matt Dufty (who inexplicably keeps coming back into first grade no matter how emphatically he demonstrates he’s not up to it) and opens up a spot in the halves for the highly-regarded Adam Clune. Meanwhile at the Bulldogs, Dean Pay has managed to revive the corpse of Keiran Foran, who joins Lachlan “The Statue” Lewis in the halves, with Lewis aiming to add to his 1 line break assist and 0 line breaks on the season (perennial punching bag Ben Hunt, by the way, has 3 and 1). Can’t wait.

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2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 11/16 (69%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Broncos
• Cowboys
• Roosters
• Dragons
• Sharks
• Storm
• Panthers
• Sea Eagles

Notes

• It seems inexplicable to us here at The Obstruction Rule that the opening game of the resumed competition should see the Broncos starting as underdogs at home to Parramatta. Granted, we’ve all had a bit going on lately, but that shouldn’t be enough for us to have forgotten how darn impressive the Broncos were in the opening two weeks. Allow us to remind you: Brisbane’s offense was ridiculous, generating the league’s highest LBVOA and TBVOA over the opening fortnight, as well as the 6th highest RMVOA (for comparison, Parramatta were 14th, 6th and 13th). Along the way, we saw the transformation of Thomas Flegler from bench forward into out-and-out stud, as they matched it with two of the game’s best packs (the Cowboys and Rabbitohs) without a host of regular forwards. Sure, they’ve now lost David Fifita as well, but his absence is surely offset by the returns of Matt Lodge, Joe Ofahengaue and Alex Glenn this week.
• As a result, one can only conclude that the bookies see the Eels as being considerably better than the teams Brisbane have beaten. Now, granted Parramatta are well placed to finish highly on the ladder this year, but that’s primarily due to a soft draw – something that won’t help them at all with this trip to Brisbane. Secondly, we might point out that in Week 1, they barely snuck home against competition lightweights, Canterbury – making their lofty ladder position solely the result of a thumping 46-0 win over the hilariously hopeless Titans. The fact they’ve been dining out on that victory for the past two months is embarrassing. If we had a dollar for every team who put 30+ on the Titans last year, we’d have enough to purchase a copy of the soundtrack to the Whitney Houston movie, The Bodyguard (which, incidentally, has finished as the overall #1 for the year more recently than the Eels have). Parramatta may yet win this game – the Broncos are still some way below full-strength. But to favour them over Brisbane at this point is to completely ignore how surprisingly dominant the Broncos have been so far.
• As previously mentioned, the Titans are so shockingly bad defensively that we’d struggle to ever tip them, and this week is no exception. That being said, their reshuffled spine of Tyrone Roberts, Ash Taylor, Jamal Fogarty and Nathan Peats looks like an upgrade (and is arguably better than what the Cows are trotting out this week), and the Cowboys have lost Michael Morgan and Gavin Cooper. We still aren’t tipping them, but at $3.36 there’s probably some value there.
• After a disappointing outing against Penrith, the Roosters were significantly better in Round 2 against Manly, in a match they really should have won (they produced a whopping 6 line breaks to 3, yet managed just a single try). The Roosters’ forwards have been laying an excellent platform, leading the team to distant 1st in RMVOA, with Siosiua Taukeiaho and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves tied for 11th among NRL forwards for runs of over 8m. The issue has simply been converting their opportunities – and if they continue to stick to their processes, those results should come. Field position should heavily favour Sydney, with the Rabbitohs yet to pass 1250m in a game this year (a mark the Roosters passed in both outings, including putting over 1700m on Manly). The Roosters’ new Flanagan/Keary halves combo should continue to improve, and let’s face it – they need a win here. They’re already 2 wins off the pace – going 0-3 would be disastrous.
• You can’t possibly tip the Warriors this week. In addition to being the worst attacking team of the opening fortnight (they scored just 1 try and made 1 line break in those two weeks combined, while finishing last, 2nd last and last in LBVOA, RMVOA and TBVOA), they’re now without one of their few attacking weapons, David Fusitua, and key middle, Leeson Ah Mau. Oh, and they’ve also been holed up in a hotel for the past three weeks. The Dragons aren’t great, but they’ve surely got enough to see off a team averaging 3 points per game.
• On paper, the Sharks look way too good for the Tigers. Their backline looks better; their halves look better; their forwards look better. However, it’s debatable whether or not they’ve actually played better so far. They’ve lost two close games to the Rabbitohs and Storm (no shame in that), and looked concerningly flat in doing it. They hardly broke a tackle against Souths, totaling just 14 tackle busts for the game, and made 23 against Melbourne. The Tigers, meanwhile, have made at least 30 in each of their games so far. Similarly, the Sharks discipline was non-existent, with the side averaging a combined 21.5 errors and penalties per game in their first two outings (vs the Tigers’ 14.5). If they remain just as clunky, there is a very real possibility here for Wests to pull Cronulla’s pants down. We’re mainly backing the Sharks this week on the back of a strong head-to-head record – they’ve won their past 6 straight against the Tigers, so we fancy they should feel positive enough to turn in a better performance here. We’re not full of confidence, though.
• Don’t be surprised if Saturday night’s clash between the Storm and Raiders ends up being low scoring. These sides were far and away the two best defensive sides of the opening fortnight, allowing just 5 line breaks conceded between them, over the two weeks combined (an average of 1.25 per game). With that level of D, points will surely be hard to come by. Melbourne’s offense has thus far not been that good (but has been good enough), while the Raiders’ has been difficult to gauge, due to the patheticness of their opposition (the Titans and Warriors). We’re leaning toward the home team in a tight one, but it’s close.
• No doubt the Knights will be pleased to see Nathan Cleary missing from Penrith’s line-up here, after the Panthers’ half personally put 34 points on them in a 54-10 drubbing at Penrith last year. Unfortunately, Newcastle have problems of their own here. Newcastle have lost fullback Kalyn Ponga for this week, in addition to the long-term loss of hooker Jayden Brailey. As a result, the Knights’ remodeled spine is even less recognisable than that of the Panthers‘, who’ll be turning to teenage sensation Matt Burton in the halves (no pressure, but The Obstruction Rule considers him the most talented half in the entire Penrith club – Cleary included). The most impressive part of Penrith’s surprising early season form was their ability to shut down Luke Keary and the entire Roosters’ offense in Week 1, limiting the Roosters to just a single line break. A similar game plan, built around stopping Mitch Pearce should be equally as effective here, given the lack of proven alternative playmaking options. If they do that, the Panthers’ dominant edge attackers should then be able to provide enough points for a win.
• It’s very difficult to imagine a halves combination of Lachlan Lewis and Jack Cogger troubling a Des Hasler defense even a little bit. Avoid the Bulldogs like you’ve been avoiding your loved ones for the past two months.

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