2017 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 111/168 (66%) [Last week:6/8]
Line Betting: 44/84 (52%) [Last week: 1/3]
2016 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 71%
Line Betting: 54%
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NRL Round 24 Tips and Previews
Eels v Titans
Offense VOA: Eels -3.70% (8th), Titans -24.78% (14th)
Defense VOA: Eels -0.78% (9th), Titans 49.86% (16th)
Tonight continues what feels like a never-ending prank from Channel 9, as we’re forced to suffer through yet another Thursday Night Football bludger (on the bright side, at least the Bulldogs aren’t playing).
Both teams were absolutely deplorable last week, making this a really difficult game to get excited about. The Eels somehow managed to lose to Newcastle, on the back of a meagre 44% possession share, which came courtesy of a self-inflicted 14 errors. Compounding their problems, the Eels’ typically stout defense (okay, perhaps ‘stout’ is a stretch, but it’s generally firm-ish) conceded 5 tries (just the 4th time the Knights have hit that mark), and an unbelievable 1549 metres (to a Knights team who to that point, hadn’t gained 1500 metres in a match all season, and had only cracked 1300 four times). In every possible way, the Eels were utterly dreadful, and thoroughly deserved the embarrassing touch-up they were handed by the team coming last.
Fortunately for Parramatta, the Titans were even worse (and have been worse for quite some time). To their credit, the Titans weren’t dropping the ball (although their season-high 10 penalties conceded certainly didn’t help matters), however their already-bad defense hit a new standard of awful. Coming off an embarrassing 54 point thrashing from the Broncos, the Titans backed that up by conceding a Tim Simona-esque 13 line breaks (topping the previous league-worst defensive effort of 12, jointly held by the Titans and Tigers). We didn’t even know it was possible to concede that many line breaks in a match – it works out to having your line broken once every 6 minutes, even less if you don’t include all the time they spent standing in their own in-goal, lamenting their sorry excuse for a performance.
So how do you pick a winner from this pair? You have to look back over the weeks prior, and while last weekend’s stinker was just par for the course for the Gold Coast, the Eels had been excellent for at least the last month. We expect the Eels to take last week as a bit of a reality check, and to resume their previous standard immediately (for that matter, so too will the Titans; it’s just that their previous standard wasn’t very good in the first place).
Our tip: Eels