The Obstruction Rule

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 112/176 (64%) (Last week: 4/8)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Bulldogs
• Rabbitohs
• Broncos
• Knights
• Storm
• Roosters
• Sharks
• Tigers

Notes

• Let’s be clear: we haven’t changed our tune on the Bulldogs. We still have absolutely no interest in backing a team so completely incapable of scoring points. No interest, that is, unless they’re playing one of the two teams worse than them on offense – like this week’s opponent, the Cowboys. Though some may have been impressed with North Queensland’s 4-try effort against Penrith (just the 4th time all season they’ve scored 4 or more tries in a game), we’re of the view that it had far more to do with the apathetic Panthers defense than anything particularly enterprising from the Cowboys (and it’s worth noting that Penrith have conceded 4 or more tries in 4 of their last 5 matches, so at this point, 4 tries is pretty much par for the course). If we consider both offenses to be pretty dull, then the result is likely to be dictated by the defenses – and in that regard, this is a no contest. Over the past 6 weeks, the woefully inept Cowboys defense has delivered a LBCVOA of 39.92% (worst in the league) and unsurprisingly, that’s seen them bleed points, with North Queensland conceding 5 or more tries in half those matches, and at least 3 tries in 5 of the 6. In contrast, the recently-elite Bulldogs D has posted a LBCVOA of -13.62% over the same period (3rd in the NRL), and conceded 1 or fewer tries in half(!) those games. Perhaps most terrifyingly, 2 of those near-shutouts came against Top 5 offenses (South Sydney and Parramatta). In short, we don’t like picking the Bulldogs because they virtually never score more than 3 tries; but that should be plenty against a Cowboys side who may fail to register a point.
• The Friday night battle between the Broncos and the Eels presents as one of the more intriguing clashes of the round, with both sides being last-start losers, following recent stretches of unimpressive wins. Funnily enough, we were actually more impressed with Brisbane in defeat than we have been with anything they’ve shown in their recent wins. It may have taken a spate of injuries to force Anthony Seibold’s hand, but halfback Sean O’Sullivan was able to take advantage of another dominant platform laid by the Broncos’ pack, and finally generate a few scoring opportunities as a result. We can’t stress enough what a difference a legitimate halfback makes to a squad – the Broncos consistently dominate field position, yet are completely clueless when it comes to generating attacking opportunities (outside of Tevita Pangai Jr offloads). However, when they actually have a #7, their offense becomes serviceable – and in many cases, serviceable will be good enough to win, when you consider that recently they’ve consistently won both possession (5 of their last 6) and yardage (5 of their last 6). The evidence of O’Sullivan’s effect is obvious. He created 2 line break assists and 1 try assist against the Rabbitohs, and he has half the line break assists of team leader Anthony Milford for the season – despite having played just 4 matches. At home, and against a Parramatta side who just got gashed for 6 line breaks by Canterbury, we fancy they should be good enough to get home. The big test may come next week, when Jake Turpin returns from suspension to tempt Seibold into more team mismanagement – hopefully O’Sullivan turns in a screamer on Friday to save Seibold from himself.
• Like pretty much everyone else, we agree that the Knights are streets better than the Titans. However, we can’t help wondering how anyone can be a $1.25 favourite after an effort as insipid as what Newcastle turned in last weekend against the Tigers. Sure, the Titans are horrendous, but if the Knights are as disinterested here as they were last week, the Titans can most definitely win.
• Let us say two things about the Sea Eagles. First, Des Hasler’s blatant spoiling strategy that he employed successfully against Canberra (and Melbourne before that) is a piece of coaching brilliance. By doing whatever’s necessary to create a stop-start affair and prevent either side getting into a rhythm, Manly have been able to ensure low-scoring affairs, putting themselves in winnable positions against vastly superior opponents. Against the Raiders in particular, the Sea Eagles essentially dared Ashley Klein to sin-bin somebody by being persistently offside and relentlessly hanging on in the ruck, giving away a whopping 15 penalties before Klein decided to put his whistle away (and at which point, the untidiness in the ruck only got worse). Klein could have blown 50 penalties last week, such was the Sea Eagles’ determined intent to prevent a game of football from breaking out, and the strategy was a resounding success, holding the Raiders to less than 3 tries for the first time since Round 12. From a competitive standpoint, Hasler deserves a standing ovation. However, the second point though, is that such a strategy shouldn’t be facilitated by cowardly refereeing (what happened to using the sin-bin for consistent, intentional infringements?); and even if it is, it’s not a recipe for certain success. All it does is guarantee a close game, not a winning game. Indeed, were it not for the 8-point intercept try (a try which the NRL have since admitted should have been disallowed) Manly would have lost anyway, despite successfully destroying the game as a spectacle (and if you manage to make a Canberra game unenjoyable, you’ve really outdone yourself). In essence, this is a strategy that bad teams employ in order to compete against good teams (a strategy that the Tigers employed to great effect in 2018). So, we’re still not picking them here, and frankly, we sincerely hope they get bundled out of the finals as quickly as possible, so rugby league fans don’t have to suffer through any more of that nauseatingly unwatchable horseshit than necessary.
• If you needed any evidence of just how highly we rate the Sharks in 2019, look no further than the fact that we’re tipping them to roll The Obstruction Rule‘s sweethearts, the Raiders this week. We consider the Sharks the best chance we’ve seen of a team winning the competition from the bottom half of the 8, as they appear to be peaking at the right time of year. Their defense has been greatly improved since their Round 18 loss to the Warriors, conceding 3 or fewer line breaks in 4 of their last 5 matches (a standard they met just 7 times in their first 17 games). At the same time, their offense has gone berserk, creating 8 line breaks on 4 separate occasions over the same period. This is a formula that’s virtually unbeatable and unlikely to slow down, with the side having scored 18 points or more in every match since Wade Graham returned to the side, at an average of 29.75. We love Canberra, but you’d have think that given the Sharks’ recent run of form, plus the fact that this game will be Gal’s farewell from Shark Park, they’re just meeting Cronulla at the worst possible time (and even at the best possible time, the Sharks would still make it a contest).
• Having tipped an incoming breakout attacking performance by the Tigers for the past few weeks, we’d be patting ourselves on the back after Wests turned in an 8-try demolition of Newcastle… were it not for the fact that we tipped the Knights due to – of all reasons – the strength of their defense (*facepalm*). Nonetheless, we were still quietly pleased to see Wests open up the throttle, and can’t see any reason why they shouldn’t be able to do it again here. The Tigers are playing to keep their slim finals chances alive, and get to face a Dragons side who’ve been phoning it in for weeks (months?). St George-Illawarra have conceded less than 4 line breaks in a game just once since Round 6, and have conceded 5 or more tries in half their games since the start of July. With the Tigers in a bit of a purple patch, it’d take a drastic reversal of form from the Dragons for the Red Vee to get the chocolates here.

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2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 108/168 (64%) (Last week: 5/8)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Eels
• Panthers
• Rabbitohs
• Sharks
• Knights
• Roosters
• Storm
• Raiders

Notes

• We have to tip our hats to the Bulldogs‘ defense – we gave them virtually no chance of beating the Bunnies last week, but their stubborn D completely shut down their opponent for the 3rd week in a row, facilitating the surprise win. We still want no part in tipping a team who’s scored more than 18 points in a game just once in their past 11, but nevertheless, we have to acknowledge one thing at least – as long as their defense is performing at this level, they’ll at least be in a position to compete every week.
• Do we actually think they will win? Look – probably not. Given their inability to score, teams typically need only score 3 tries to beat Canterbury – something the Eels have achieved in all but 6 matches this year. Indeed, when the two sides met back in Round 2, the Eels pumped the Bulldogs 36-12. Add in the Bankwest Stadium Effect – where the Eels average almost 29 points per game – and it just seems like the odds are against the Doggies turning in another flawless display (indeed, there’s a fair argument that their recent impressive defensive results have had more to do with the offensive ineptitude of their opponents – Penrith, Wests and South Sydney – than anything the Bulldogs themselves have been doing).
• If either side’s recent performances are any indication, the Friday evening clash between the Cowboys and Panthers is likely to be borderline unwatchable. North Queensland are mired in a 5-match losing streak, while the Panthers surrendered control of their own destiny last week with the sort of insipid attacking effort that’s become a hallmark of their 2019 season. It’s pretty much indisputable at this point that Penrith are capable of significantly better football than North Queensland – the Cowboys rank dead last in every attacking metric we use, in addition to possessing the league’s 2nd worst defense. However, the Panthers remain their own worst enemy. One week, they’re blowing the doors off against an in-form contender like Cronulla. The next, they look like they’ve hardly met each other. They’ll surely have no shortage of motivation here, with their season now on life support, but the same could have been said last week (and for that matter, it’s every bit as likely that the Cowboys will be fired up to “do it for Matt Scott”, who suffered a mild stroke earlier this week). If Penrith turn it on, the Cowboys can’t possibly hang with them. But will they? Your guess is as good as ours.
• Please don’t confuse the Broncos‘ recent winning record as any sort of indication of form – if you’ve actually been unfortunate enough to watch them play, you’ll have seen that they’ve been dismal. Last week was no different, with the Panthers somehow still in a position to win the game inside the final 10 minutes, despite having played one of the worst games of football in recent memory (there was a point about half an hour into the clash where the Panthers had a sub-50% completion rate). If Brisbane were actually in decent form, they’d have eaten up Penrith for breakfast. Instead, they turned a wealth of field position into… well…not much at all, really, and needed an epic Payne Haas run (through some weak defense) to clinch the game.
• Much has been made of the loss of Tom Burgess this weekend for the Rabbitohs, as well as the potential loss of brother Sam. The concerns are well founded – Souths have been struggling for a while now, having won just 3 of their past 10 matches. But if a single player’s absence is going to decide this game, we should be looking at the other team. The Broncos have lost edge forward Tevita Pangai Jr to suspension, and he’ll take with him the only hint of offensive spark the Broncos have had for the past month. In addition to his 6 line break assists for the season (which ranks 3rd on his team), the Broncos will badly miss Pangai’s offloading ability. Pangai’s 46 effective offloads not only rank 1st in the NRL in 2019 – they’re more than triple any other player in the Broncos’ pack (Matt Lodge is the next closest, with just 14). Though offloads aren’t the be-all and end-all, they’re invaluable to a team such as Brisbane, whose halves are completely incapable of generating scoring opportunities (their team leader in line break assists, Anthony Milford, isn’t even in the top 30 in the league). If their halves aren’t creating opportunities and their second-phase play dries up, the Broncos should be pretty easy to shut down.
• The Tigers made us look foolish for talking them up as a good chance against Manly last week, getting comprehensively belted by an evidently superior opponent. That being said, we still think there’s a lot to like about the Wests. For a start, it’s worth acknowledging that the Tigers finished with just a 39% share of possession – with so little football, it’s virtually impossible for anyone to win. Secondly, though in many cases such a low possession share is the fault of the team involved, in this case it had more to do with the clinical execution of Manly (who forced 4 line drop outs, and conceded just 2 penalties) than anything particularly bad that the Tigers did. Finally, it can’t be ignored that despite having very little time in possession, the Tigers still managed to create 4 line breaks through the Sea Eagles’ defense. Though the scoreline looked bad, we stand by the position that with an even share of possession, the Tigers would have been in that game up to their eyeballs (or, in the very least, their elbows).
• Having said that, we’re still tipping the Knights here. Not because of their offense, which burst back to life last week in a 42-6 thumping of North Queensland. Rather, we fancy Newcastle because of their defense. Yes, the Knights’ attack looked sharp, but as mentioned above, we quite fancy the upside of the Tigers’ offense these days, too. However, on the defensive side of the ball, the Knights have been consistently superior – even though they’ve been losing for weeks. After a mid-season slump due to the mix-and-match approach to their edges, the Knights have trotted out the same edge combinations for the past 3 weeks in a row – and have been rewarded, posting a LBCVOA of -35.52% over the past fortnight (1st in the NRL). They’ll have a single forced change here due to the loss of Tautau Moga to injury, but that should be offset by a similar shift for the Tigers (where Robert Jennings comes into the side). In addition, their already-superb run defense (the Knights rank 2nd in the league for RMCVOA) should be further bolstered by the return of Tim Glasby. In what should be a competitive, quality game of football, we’d rather back the better defense – but still give the Tigers a good shout.
• Sea Eagles fans are well within their rights to be feeling good about themselves at the moment – they’ve won 7 of their past 9, and the Rabbitohs’ surprise loss last weekend lifted Manly into the Top 4. However, we expect them to find out exactly what a Top 4 standard team looks like on Sunday’s expedition to Canberra. The Eagles come armed with one of the league’s most explosive offenses, but the Raiders have been pretty sharp themselves of late, scoring 4 or more tries in 3 of their past 4, including a 4-try effort last week against the stupendously good Melbourne defense (for comparison, the Sea Eagles scored just 1 against the Storm four weeks ago). And unlike Manly, the Raiders back up their offense with one of the league’s best Ds. We mentioned above that Manly conceded 4 line breaks to the Tigers last week, despite a dominant 61% share of possession. That match was the 4th time in 5 weeks that the Sea Eagles have conceded 4 line breaks in a match. In comparison, the Raiders haven’t conceded that many in a game in over a month. We’d only give Manly a chance here in the event they can keep 55%+ of the football – something that’s near impossible against Canberra, because they’re constantly stripping the bloody thing (indeed, the Raiders have only been held to less than 48% possession once all year – their loss to Manly in Round 7, in which they were penalised out of the game, 13-5). Barring a similar referee intervention, we’re expecting a Canberra win, and quite possibly a comprehensive one.

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2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 103/160 (64%) (Last week: 5/8)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Sea Eagles
• Eels
• Panthers
• Knights
• Storm
• Rabbitohs
• Roosters
• Sharks

Notes

• Many have already written off the Tigers for this week, but don’t count The Obstruction Rule among them. Obviously last weekend’s loss to the crummy Bulldogs was disappointing, but it could be argued that they performed admirably under the circumstances. Let’s remember that the Tigers lost their two best players (Moses Mbye and Robbie Farah) within the opening quarter of the match, leaving them to play the rest of the match with a 2-man bench. The slow turning of the tide towards Canterbury was almost inevitable as fatigue took its toll on Wests, and yet still they were able to put themselves in position for a match-leveling kick at goal on the siren (the less said about that, the better). Indeed, the fact that the Tigers were able to generate 4 second half line breaks with a patch-work attacking unit speaks volumes to how well their offense has been operating of late. No Farah? No problem, as Benji Marshall took the reins and turned back the clock, almost single-handedly putting the team on his back through the late-game rally. We can’t quite pull the trigger on tipping them head-to-head, due to the quality of their opponent this week. However, at $3.40, they may be the best value of the week for an out-and-out smokie.
• Speaking of their opponents, don’t feel too down about the Sea Eagles last-start loss to New Zealand. Typically, losing to the Warriors is so shameful you’d keep it hidden from your wife, and instead claim you were away in Auckland for “a business trip”. On this occasion though, Manly weren’t even particularly bad – the Warriors were just awesome. Of course, there’s every possibility that we won’t see New Zealand play anywhere near that level again for the remainder of the season. But it serves as a timely reminder of just how good they can be.
• The Titans couldn’t have come at a better time for the Eels, whose offense has gone curiously AWOL over the past couple of weeks. Yes, they’ve been winning, but for a team whose early season success was built on their high-octane attacking game, it’s slightly concerning that they’re suddenly struggling for points, four weeks out from the finals. Over the past fortnight – during which they’ve played two bottom-eight teams, including the league’s 3rd-worst defense – they’ve mustered just a combined 5 line breaks. This would be disappointing for any team, but for a side who’ve made 5 or more line breaks in a single game on 7 separate occasions this year, it’s quite a drop-off. And when you remember that their defense ranks in the bottom-8 of the league, it’s mildly alarming. Thankfully, the Titans are on the menu here, and their “defense” has played many a struggling offense into form this year, most recently the Dragons, who came into their clash with the Titans having scored 3 tries or fewer in 5 games in a row… only to torch the Gold Coast D for 7. If the Eels sputter again here, we’ll be officially worried.
• The Broncos-Cowboys clash last Thursday night was the worst game of rugby league played this year. Let’s never speak of it again.
• If you’re wondering how exactly the Panthers managed to roll the more talented Sharks outfit last weekend, the answer is simple: possession and field position. This is the recipe to beating any team armed with an offense as dangerous as Cronulla’s. The fact that Penrith were able to convert their early dominance into points was certainly beneficial, but the real key here was the fact that it protected their defense. Remember, this is a Cronulla team with the 3rd-highest LBVOA in the league, and coming off a 6-try effort against the 2nd-best defense in the NRL. The fact that Penrith were able to hold them to a single first half try is how they won this game. In the second half – when possession and field position tipped in favour of Cronulla – the Panthers’ defense was futile in attempting to stop the Sharks’ juggernaut… but the damage had already been done. The Panthers will be looking for more of the same here against the Broncos, who depend almost exclusively on winning through the middle of the field to generate points. FUN FACT #1: When the Broncos make over 1500m in a game, they’ve scored 3 or more tries in 9 of 11 games. FUN FACT #2: When the Broncos make less than 1500m in a game, they’ve scored 3 or more tries in just 2 of 9. FUN FACT #3: The Panthers have the 2nd-best RMCVOA in the league, and have conceded 1500m or more just 3 times all year.
• We’ve written at length of late about the Knights‘ recent defensive issues, but now their offense has also fallen off a cliff. Over the last fortnight – in which they’ve played two bottom-8 defenses – the Knights have somehow scored just 3 combined tries, and made just 2 combined line breaks. The loss of Jesse Ramien’s tackle-busting ability was particularly glaring last weekend against the Eels, where Newcastle made just 10 tackle breaks all game – against an opponent with the 3rd-worst TBCVOA in the league. Against almost any other team in the league (and that “almost” is the Gold Coast), there’s no way in the world we’d be picking Newcastle. However, they’re at home, and have the luxury of playing the only offense in the league traveling worse than theirs (last week, the Cowboys made zero line breaks against the Broncos, and somehow broke just 8 tackles in 80 minutes of football. Woof). So, we’re holding our noses and backing them in.
• If you’re wondering why we rarely write about the Storm, it’s because they’re that much better than everybody else in the league, that it really goes without saying (and if you need to be told that the Storm are awesome, we’re not really sure what you’re doing on this site to begin with). Last weekend was just another day in the life for Melbourne, as they torched the NRL’s 2nd-best defense to the tune of 10 line breaks. To give you an idea of just how phenomenal the 2019 Storm actually are, consider the following: so far this year, there have been just 7 occasions in which a team has made double-digit line breaks in a game. The Melbourne Storm have made three of those. Oh, and they also have the best defense in the league, to boot. Ricky Stuart said post-match last week that if the Raiders had to play the Grand Final tomorrow, he believes they could win. It seems the rugby league genie was listening, as he gets his wish immediately – a date with the Storm. Good luck, Sticky.
• The undeserved smugness emanating from Belmore after back-to-back wins for the Bulldogs will be brought to an abrupt halt this weekend. They still can’t score (they’ve scored more than 3 tries in just 3 of 20 matches this year), and are running into an offense just about ready to explode. The Rabbitohs are averaging over 5 line breaks per game over the past month, yet have scored more than 20 points just twice. We know that tries tend to follow line breaks, so we’re expecting an avalanche of points to arrive soon. And while the Rabbitohs’ defense has been ripped apart over the past fortnight (they’ve conceded 10 tries and 18 line breaks in their past two games combined), that was against the two most in-form attacking units in the league (Melbourne and Cronulla) – something the Bulldogs most certainly aren’t. Souths by plenty.
• Both the Warriors and Roosters were terrific last week, but as mentioned earlier, the Roosters are terrific every week; the Warriors are… not.
• Though the Dragons managed a win last weekend against the Gold Coast, let’s not forget that they still managed to concede 28 points to the team coming last (and who hadn’t scored more than 20 in over 2 months). Against a Sharks squad who’ve now made 8 line breaks in each of their past 3 games, there’s a very real risk that this could get ugly.

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2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 98/152 (64%) (Last week: 7/8)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Broncos
• Sea Eagles
• Sharks
• Dragons
• Eels
• Tigers
• Roosters
• Storm

Notes

• Last weekend, the Broncos joined a growing list of teams who’ve brought a streak of good form into Melbourne, only to be comprehensively humiliated. The test now will be how long it takes for them to regain their confidence. For Parramatta, it took about a month after their 64-10 thrashing to start playing decent footy again; in the case of Newcastle, it’s been six weeks and they’re still broken. For others, like New Zealand, a 32-10 spanking from the Storm sparked their season to life (before eventually petering out into the usual ignominy). If we assume that regular programming will immediately resume, then the Broncos should have far too much firepower for the Cowboys. Prior to last week’s embarrassment the Broncos were heating up, scoring 18 combined tries over a 4-week unbeaten stretch (by comparison, the Cowboys have scored just 16 tries from their past 6 combined games). The Broncos’ defense isn’t great, but North Queensland’s is non-existent, conceding 5 or more line breaks for the past 4 weeks in a row. The best hope for the Cowboys is the possibility that the Broncos’ momentum was completely halted by last week’s loss. It’s a possibility, but not one that we’re giving too much weight to.
• As with last week’s match against Canberra, we feel the need to point out that on sheer ability, the Warriors are good enough to beat the Sea Eagles here at home. Unfortunately, like last week, the reality is that actually expecting the Warriors to play to their ability would be foolish. At home, with their season on the line, New Zealand turned in arguably their most insipid effort of the season (which is saying something) in their 46-12 thumping from the Raiders. Sure, they had to toil away with just 40% possession (a position from which they had very little chance of winning), but that doesn’t excuse them for just rolling over and conceding 4 clean line breaks before half-time. If they were helpless against Canberra, we can only imagine how a similar effort will hold up against a Sea Eagles side who’ve registered a LBVOA of 31.87% over the past 6 weeks (first in the league). We’re not doubting New Zealand’s defensive ability – this is the same team who held the Storm to zero line breaks in Round 7 – we’re simply doubting their effort.
• We can’t in good conscience tip the Panthers this week. Last weekend against the Bulldogs, Penrith did exactly what we’d warned about – they got themselves into a low-scoring slugfest (which happens to be the only type of game that Canterbury have any chance of winning). We don’t want to take anything away from the Bulldogs defense – they were absolutely superb. However, it’s worth pointing out that in many ways, this was a mess of the Panthers’ own making. For example, choosing to kick for penalty goal in the first half with an opposing player in the sin-bin was the sort of ultra-conservative move you’d expect from a team hoping to grind down a superior opponent; not the strategy for beating a talentless attacking unit running second-last. Had Penrith run in a try (or two) in that period, the Bulldogs likely would have given up and been on the receiving end of another thumping, as happens almost every time an opponent of theirs crosses the 3-try barrier (of the 8 games in which the Bulldogs have conceded more than 3 tries, their opponents have gone on to score 6 or more in 5 of them). Instead, Penrith kicked a goal (wasting 90 seconds against a short-manned defense), gave up field position, and never saw another decent attacking opportunity for the rest of the period. Frankly, they got what they deserved.
• That being said, the Panthers’ strategy against the Bulldogs would actually be well suited… for playing Cronulla. So far in 2019, the Sharks have been a bit ‘Penrithy’ – that is, error prone, and frequently penalised. As a result, they often find themselves on the losing end of lop-sided possession counts, and have lost more games than they otherwise should have as a result. When the Sharks earn 51% or more of the possession, they typically destroy teams, averaging over 4 tries per game (vs 3.25 with 49% or less). This is relevant because Cronulla’s ill discipline frequently finds them down in possession share. This week’s opponent, the Panthers, are every bit as clumsy with the football as Cronulla, but the Panthers’ ability to force line drop-outs (they rank first in the league) often sees them winning the possession count (Penrith have earned 51% or more in their past 7 straight games – a period in which they’ve lost just twice). In that event, Cronulla’s razor-sharp offense becomes blunted due to a sheer lack of possession. We’re still not prepared to tip Penrith – we saw what a good attacking side can do to the Panthers with little ball two weeks ago, when the Raiders turned 6 opportunities into as many tries – but we warn that if Cronulla get squeezed for possession again, this likely won’t be the beat-down many are predicting.
• Few would have guessed that with five weeks remaining, the Dragons would be contesting the Spoon Bowl 2019. In truth, we don’t really believe they are. St George-Illawarra are two wins clear of the last-placed Titans, and light-years better in terms of ability. It may look close on the ladder, but it’s not.
• Nope, it turns out Jesse Ramien wasn’t the problem. Nathan Brown isn’t the first coach in 2019 to chase a star player out of town – Ivan Cleary did the same to Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Waqa Blake earlier this year -but at least the Panthers had a 7-game winning streak to show for it. The Knights, meanwhile, just watched their season slump from bad to worse, getting pumped 30-6 by the Sea Eagles (a side they were above on the ladder as recently as the end of June). We identified the Knights’ problem weeks ago (the constant re-shuffling of their edge combinations has completely destroyed their line break defense) but to no avail, with the Knights once again allowing all but 1 of their 6 line breaks conceded through their re-configured edges. It appears this week that Brown may have finally listened – the Knights have named the same edge combinations in consecutive weeks for just the 3rd time since Rounds 10-11. Of course, that isn’t going to make Newcastle immediately better, but it’s a start. Like the Penrith game above, we don’t have the stones to actually tip them here, but we’re giving them a chance.
• The Bulldogs defended superbly in beating the Panthers last weekend, but let’s be clear – Canterbury are still exactly who we thought they were – they’re an elite defense who’ll compete for as long as they believe they’re in the contest. Their banal offense threatens nobody (they scored 3 tries in a game for just the 7th time this year, and frankly, one of those was a fairly obvious knock-on), leaving them pretty well hopeless against any side who can put up a score. The Tigers may not be a side typically associated with that reputation, but we suggest you check again. The Tigers mightn’t be sexy, but they’re currently on a five-week tear of making 5 or more line breaks in games (the second-longest such streak in the NRL, behind the Roosters) – an attacking run that’s finally begun bearing fruit, with the Tigers earning back-to-back wins for just the 2nd time this year. For as long as this run keeps going, the Tigers are going to be tough to beat.
• This week’s match-of-the-round is surely the Raiders hosting the Roosters at GIO. There’s very little between these two sides – their defensive numbers are almost identical (the Roosters’ rank 3rd vs the Raiders’ 5th), and though the Roosters’ offensive numbers are a long way ahead of Canberra’s, it’s worth noting that Canberra’s attacking stats are being dragged down by a slow start to the year. On recent form – they’ve won 7 of their last 8, by the way – they’re much closer to Sydney, with a LBVOA over the past 5 weeks of 37.69% vs the Roosters’ 55.30%. The home ground advantage will surely work in Canberra’s favour, lending even more weight to the possibility of the Raiders snatching an upset over the defending premiers. The numbers give a slight edge to Sydney, so that’s who we’ve got, but sometimes we just have to say: we really don’t know. Will be a hell of a game, though.

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2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 91/144 (63%) (Last week: 5/8)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Tigers
• Raiders
• Storm
• Sea Eagles
• Panthers
• Sharks
• Roosters
• Eels

Notes

• Tigers/Cowboys contests are somewhat known for being high-scoring, unpredictable games of football, and there’s no reason to expect this to be any different. Those of you who followed Wests’ upward trend in line breaks were rewarded last weekend, as the Tigers recorded their highest points total since early May. That effort was their 4th week on the trot in which they’ve recorded 5 or more line breaks in a game, and here they’ll be facing the 3rd worst line break defense in the competition. Stylistically, the two sides couldn’t be more different – while the Tigers’ recent success has come largely off the back of some fast-and-loose second-phase play (the Tigers have averaged 11.5 offloads per game during their last 4 games, almost double the 6.8 they were averaging over the 6 weeks prior); the Cowboys wouldn’t be caught dead offloading, for fear of making an error and exposing their weak defense to a short field (indeed, last week the Cowboys made just 4 offloads in the entire match). It follows then that this match may well come down to how well the Tigers can execute their offload-heavy attacking style. If their passes stick, there’s potential here for the Tigers to run up another decent total; however, if the passes don’t stick, they may not see the football for long stretches of the match at a time. It’s high-risk, high-reward for the Tigers, and if nothing else, we’d rather see that be successful than the giant snoozefest that the Cowboys dish up.
• We thought the Warriors could give the Eels a good shake last weekend, and they didn’t let us down – going toe-to-toe with Parramatta in one of the more entertaining matches this year. The result may have been tainted by controversy (for ours, that pass was too close to feel particularly outraged either way it got called), but on the whole, it was a lot of fun. The Warriors continue to play an enterprising style of offense that’s averaged over 5 line breaks per game for the past 6 weeks, only to let themselves down by butchering opportunities and giving up points through soft defensive lapses. They simply can’t do that against the Raiders – Canberra were given relatively few attacking opportunities by Penrith, yet converted almost all of them on their way to scoring 6 tries (as many as Penrith had conceded in their previous 3 games combined). We honestly believe that the Warriors have the ability to beat the Raiders this weekend – we simply don’t have any confidence that they’re capable of playing to their ability for the full 80 minutes.
• It speaks volumes about the dominance of the Storm that last weekend marked just their 3rd loss of the season, and they actually outscored Manly in that, 2 tries to 1. If the only way to beat Melbourne is to accept that their defense is impenetrable and kick a bunch of goals, it’s hard to see them losing many more games (and it speaks volumes that a top-tier offense such as Manly would adopt such a strategy). The Broncos are the biggest recent improvers, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where they’ve conceded just 3 tries in their past 2 games combined. Unfortunately, those games came against the league’s 15th and 14th ranked offenses – not the 2nd-best attacking team in the competition, fired up after seeing their 9-game winning streak snapped. It’s fortunate this is the later game, because any earlier and the TV stations would have to pixelate what Melbourne are about to do to the Broncos.
• Following on from our comments about Melbourne, it naturally follows that we’re not getting carried away with the Sea Eagles‘ win. They weren’t the better team on Saturday night, and we’re as mystified as everyone else how Jake Trbojevic avoided suspension while Isaac Luke got rubbed out for three weeks (but that’s a different rant). Their forwards got smoked once again (the Storm had 3 forwards run for over 150m, compared to zero for Manly), and they were very fortunate that Melbourne were incapable of converting their ample scoring opportunities. That being said, we also believe that Manly’s lack of attacking success was more a symptom of their elite opposition than anything else. Prior to that, they’d scored a whopping 22 combined tries in their previous 4 matches, and nobody has scored more than 3 tries against Melbourne all year (so being held to a single try isn’t a huge failure). Against a more regulation defense, we’d expect the Sea Eagles to quickly find their way back to the tryline very soon.
• And the Knights might be just what the doctor ordered. We’ve blamed Newcastle’s recent slump on the constant changes in personnel, but that appears to have fallen on deaf ears. Jesse Ramien, Danny Levi, Herman Ese’ese and Jamie Buhrer have all been axed in this week’s edition of Nathan Brown Selection Roulette, with Kurt Mann shifting to the wing and fullback-cum-five-eighth-cum-utility Connor Watson now apparently their first choice hooker. The axing of Ramien seems more to do with his contract than anything else – admittedly he’s been a defensive liability (he’s conceded 1.1 line breaks per game in 2019), but the incoming Mason Lino isn’t much better (0.7), and Ramien is still the team leader in tackle breaks (71), and 4th on the team for run metres (1711). Yes, he’s been disappointing, but is the team actually better without him in it? We doubt it.
• A few weeks ago we may have considered the Bulldogs a danger game for the Panthers. Penrith’s defense is consistently tight (when they’re not getting players sin-binned for the 5th time this year), however their offense has only really looked sharp against below-average defenses. Through 19 rounds, the Panthers have scored 20+ points just 4 times – against the Titans (twice, who rank last in Defense VOA), the Dragons (14th) and Sharks (the only exception, and they’re a weak 6th, anyway). They went close against the 8th-ranked Raiders, but once again fell short. That leaves it to their defense to bail them out of trouble, which in turn means playing tight, low-scoring games (which have a lower margin of error). Generally speaking, the Bulldogs would be the sort of top-of-the-food-chain defense that Penrith may struggle with. On recent form though – probably not. They’ve bled 5+ line breaks in back-to-back games, including a dreadful effort against Brisbane in which they missed an absurd 47 tackles (the Panthers haven’t missed more than 26 in 3 weeks). With Penrith now fighting to keep their spot in the eight, we’d be expecting them to bring more than Canterbury can handle to BankWest.
• Maybe we’re just suckers, but we just can’t shake this feeling about the Sharks this weekend. On form, this game is a toss-up; both sides have recently ended long losing runs – the Sharks with a late win over the 13th-placed Cowboys, and the Rabbitohs with a trio of unconvincing wins, most recently needing the full 80 to beat the 14th-placed Dragons. So, we ask ourselves – if one team is likely to improve, who will it be? On one hand, Sam Burgess is back for the Bunnies (and Burgess is, after all, very, very good). However, we still feel like the Sharks have a bit in the tank. Maybe it’s the return of the much-maligned Matt Moylan at fullback (he’s curiously fallen off the radar this year, despite leading his team with 14 line break assists from just 9 games). Maybe it’s the return of the World’s Dumbest Footballer, Andrew Fifita (okay, it’s definitely not that). No, it’s the long-awaited addition of our guy, Wade Graham, in the #12 jersey. Graham is a total stud, who adds playmaking, line-running and a sweet left boot to the Sharks’ offense. Here’s a fun fact: in Graham’s last 16 NRL matches (dating back to April 2018), the Sharks have only failed to score 20+ points 5 times. Graham makes Cronulla’s offense substantially better, which they’ll need to be in order to outpace the Rabbitohs. It’s certainly close, but in a must-win game at Shark Park, you have believe that Cronulla will finally put it all together.
• 1) If you haven’t been following the NRL for the past three months, the Dragons are shit now. Update your records. 2) The Eels pretty much always beat the Dragons, regardless of venue – they’ve won 8 of their past 9 meetings. 3) The Eels have the 5th-best line break offense in the competition; the Dragons have the 2nd-worst line break defense. 4) Parramatta pumped the Dragons 32-18  in early May – back when the Dragons were good. 5) The Eels haven’t scored less than 4 tries in a game since Round 11. 6) The Dragons haven’t scored more than 3 tries in a game since Round 15. 7) Yeah, we’re taking Parra.

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