2019 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: 73/120 (61%) (Last week: 3/4)
2018 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)
2017 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
- For the last time in 2019, you’ll need to keep a close eye on team lists close to kick-off this weekend, to confirm who does and doesn’t back up after Wednesday night’s State of Origin. Of particular attention is Friday evening’s clash between the Panthers and Titans. While few would argue that a full-strength Penrith outfit isn’t a good deal better than the Titans (indeed, even earlier in the season when they terrible, Penrith still put 24 points on the Titans’ defense – albeit in a losing effort), they come into this match asking James Maloney to back up less than 48 hours after beating Queensland, and with Nathan Cleary at best a 50/50 chance of taking the field. As a result, it’s conceivably possible that Penrith could have both, one, or neither of their star Origin halves on Friday night. The presence of at least one of the duo will be crucial for Penrith, as they haven’t named another specialist half in the squad beyond the effervescent Jarome Luai. We fully expect at least one to run out on Friday night, but if not, the Titans are a very real shot.
- Likewise, the Knights will be sweating on the health of their Origin quartet ahead of their clash with the Bulldogs. You’d have to fancy that Tim Glasby’s 13 minutes didn’t take too much out of him, and Daniel Saifiti would be similar, having seen just 22 minutes of game time himself. The key men here are David Klemmer and newly minted Origin-winner Mitchell Pearce. Though the Knights put in a superb effort in going down to the Warriors last week (Mason Lino is surely the best back-up half in the league right now), they won’t want to have to go again without both Pearce and Kalyn Ponga. The key to beating Canterbury is getting out in front early – after a long season of losing, it doesn’t take much to break their spirit (they’ve won just 1 game after losing at half-time). However, their defense is still otherwise strong enough to keep them competitive in matches – as long as they’re still competitive on the scoreboard. If the Knights can get out in front early (as they did against the Warriors), they should be able to coast to victory – and the presence of Pearce and Klemmer will go a long way to helping them do that.
- The Rabbitohs may have been planning on resting Damien Cook and Cameron Murray for this clash with Manly, however their 4-match losing streak has surely put that idea to bed. After sitting comfortably at the top of the ladder a month go, the Bunnies are now playing for their Top-4 position, with the Sea Eagles hot on their heels. To be fair to South Sydney, they’ve been well below full strength throughout that period, having been forced to play variously without all three Burgii, both halves, their Origin representatives and Alex Johnston. That loss of troops has taken its toll primarily on their offense – after having scored 4 or more tries in 8 of their first 11 matches, they’ve now failed to hit that mark in their past 4 straight. Their halves are now back, they’re bolstered by the addition of Jaydn Su’a, and the classy Adam Doueihi is available at fullback. We’re inclined to believe that a big offensive performance by Souths isn’t far away, and a relatively weak Manly defense (ranked 12th in Defense VOA) may be just the tonic. That being said though, the Rabbitohs’ pack remains a question mark, and we expect Manly to be far more competitive than their current $2.30 price suggests. This has the potential for a shoot-out.
- After a fabulous debut last weekend, Xavier Coates has unsurprisingly held his spot for the Broncos‘ meeting with the Warriors. While we shouldn’t overstate the Broncos’ performance against Cronulla – they were outscored for tries 5-4, and were once again shredded for 5 line breaks – their injection of youth at least added a bit of enthusiasm, sparking their offense to over 20 points for the first time since Round 9. The test now will be whether or not they can maintain that fire. The Warriors, for their part, were absolutely woeful last weekend in struggling to beat a Newcastle reserve-grade team. When you consider the shortage of troops that Newcastle had available, as well as the overwhelming 58% possession share that the Warriors were enjoying, it’s staggering to think that New Zealand were ever in a position to lose. Now, they face a Brisbane side who held them tryless six weeks ago. Sure, you never know what you’re going to get from a Warriors game, but if you saw them play last weekend there’s no chance you’d back them again here.
- The Sharks always seem to put in a good showing against the Storm, but at the moment you couldn’t tip anyone to beat Melbourne, let alone a Cronulla side missing Paul Gallen and Wade Graham to injury and coming off a particularly clumsy effort in losing to Brisbane.
- Though we’re obviously going to back the Roosters against North Queensland (especially with Michael Morgan still buried somewhere in ANZ Stadium) it’s worth mentioning the boost that Scott Drinkwater has given the Cowboys‘ offense. In his team debut a fortnight ago, the Cowboys posted their highest LBVOA since Round 1, with Drinkwater personally accounting for 1 try, 1 line break, 1 line break assist, 1 try assist and 6 tackle breaks. With John Asiata likely to fill in at halfback it’s impossible to expect a strong performance from the Cowboys’ offense, but we’re interested to see what Drinkwater can produce for his encore.
- If you’re thinking about tipping the Tigers at BankWest Stadium, we have one thing to say: 51-6. While the Tigers’ hammering at the hands of Parramatta in Round 6 was just the 2nd time this season that they conceded 20 or more points, it pretty much broke them, with the Tigers conceding 20+ in 6 of their next 9 matches.
- Oh, and the Eels have scored 20+ in their past 4 straight.
- Finally, we like the Raiders to grab a win at Wollongong on Sunday night. Our issue with the Dragons is with their defense. While they’ve managed to concede a few less tries in their past two games, their intrinsic line break issues have still not been solved. They’ve now conceded 4 or more line breaks in their past 9 consecutive matches – a period in which they’ve averaged over 24 points conceded per game. Now, the Raiders’ offense admittedly isn’t what it used to be, but the return of Josh Hodgson saw the Raiders record their highest LBVOA since Round 3 against Parramatta, and they’ll be further boosted here by the addition of Nick Cotric.