The Obstruction Rule

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 110/144 (76%) (Last week: 8/8)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Rabbitohs
• Panthers
• Eels
• Sea Eagles
• Storm
• Roosters
• Raiders
• Knights

Notes

• As expected, the Bulldogs struggled badly without their only good player, Keiran Foran. The side produced just 2 line breaks in his absence, the lowest number conceded by Manly since Round 8, and less than a third of the Eagles’ average conceded over the previous three weeks (7 per game). Without Foran they have absolutely nothing with the ball in hand, and over the past two months their defense has deserted them as well, with Canterbury having now conceded 4+ tries and 5+ line breaks in six consecutive games. Against a Rabbitohs team that’s purring, they’ll be lucky not get massacred.
• We should probably mention that the Panthers have decided to rest key forwards James Tamou and Zane Tetevano (as well as hooker Api Koroisau) since Penrith’s success is built so firmly on the back of their forward pack’s dominance. Penrith have won the yardage battle in 17 of 18 games so far, with their 755m victory against Parramatta their most impressive yet. The losses of Tamou and Tetevano should slow Penrith down a little, but not by much – in their place, they’ll have Jack Hetherington (who came of age during his cameo as the Warriors’ forward leader), and will give longer minutes to Spencer Leniu (who ranks 12th among NRL forwards in metres-per-carry; 5th if you don’t include hookers). The Cowboys, meanwhile, are without Josh McGuire and John Asiata, have been outgained in 13 of their past 15, and are coming off an effort in which they conceded 10+ line breaks for the 4th time this year. We think Penrith will be fine.
• Over the past few weeks, the Eels have shown how badly they struggle when they’re unable to win through the middle of the field. Five times this year, Parramatta have outgained their opponent by 200m+; in those matches, they average 5.8 tries per game. But what happens when they’re not rumbling downfield? Well, when they outgain their opponent by less than 200m, their tries scored per match drops to 2.6. And when they get outgained? 1.25. In short, the Eels’ success is closely tied to their yardage, which helps explain their general failure against the top sides (who all feature strong packs). Their issue is that they lack creativity – Dylan Brown (who’s now injured anyway) and Mitch Moses have combined for just 9 line break assists all season – that’s less than or equal to both Penrith halves (18 and 17) , Roosters halves (11 and 10) and Melbourne halves (13 and 9) each, as well as maligned nobodies like Matt Dufty and Will Kennedy (14 and 12), and something called Darius Boyd (13). This leaves all their attacking hopes pinned on Clint Gutherson, who’s barely been sighted for two months. Fortunately, they get a Broncos side here without Payne Haas and Rhys Kennedy, who’ve been outgained by over 300m for three weeks on the trot, and who Parramatta smoked for 896m back in Round 3. Surely this is a matchup that can make the Eels start feeling better about themselves. But when they run into another decent pack? It’ll be curtains.
• In this week’s edition of “needlessly reckless decision-making”, the Sea Eagles have decided to name the fate of their franchise, Tom Trbojevic, on their extended bench. Given that their season is gone and Manly’s competitiveness is inextricably tied to Trbojevic’s health, playing him sits right alongside eating a pangolin as the most needless risk of 2020 (at least if you’re from the Northern Beaches). Still, this somehow won’t even be the stupidest piece of roster management for Manly this week (that honour goes to allowing the game’s premier forward, Addin Fonua-Blake, to leave on account of “issues” that could have easily been resolved by paying him the sort of money that was instead allocated to Jake “Plodzilla” Trobojevic; why can’t Manly fans have nice things?). All of this being said, we can only judge this game on the players who’ve been named, and assuming Tom plays, this is probably the end of the streak for the Titans. We really like what the Titans have been doing of late, and they looked primed for an upset here. But Tom changes everything for Manly – he still ranks 2nd on the team for try involvements (11) and line break assists (10), and he’s only played 6 games! Quite simply, Manly are a completely different beast with him in the side, and despite the Gold Coast’s recent defensive improvements, we simply don’t believe they’ll be able to contain a team with him in it (until his hamstring explodes).
• The Storm were uncharacteristically poor defensively last weekend, conceding 4 tries in a game for just the 3rd time all year. The game was never in doubt, as their offense strode through the Cowboys’ defensive line at will, but nonetheless, we’d expect Craig Bellamy to have focused on D this week, and to be viewing a game against a typically strong Tigers offense (6th in the league) as a good pre-finals tune-up.
• The Roosters have opted to rest James Tedesco and Siosiua Taukeiaho for this clash with the Sharks, but like the Penrith game above, we doubt it makes much difference. The Sharks’ defense is typically shocking, and Joey Manu is a perfectly capable replacement at the back. The Roosters should still find plenty of points.
• With the Warriors now out of the playoff hunt, the Eels have recalled Daniel Alvaro and George Jennings, leaving New Zealand even thinner for numbers to close out the season. The loss of Jennings in particular takes a lot of air out of their attacking balloon, with the Eels flyer having made 5 line breaks and 19 tackle breaks across just 7 appearances this season (6 for the Warriors). He’ll be replaced on the wing by Hayze Perham, who’s managed just 1 and 8 from 5 outings. They weren’t likely to win here anyway, but at this point they’re likely just looking forward to the season being over.
• The Knights made the curious decision to rest a few stars for their inevitable loss to the Roosters, and got exactly what they deserved – a 42-12 beat-down. Now, they find themselves in a tricky spot, likely needing to win out in order to secure a home final in two weeks time (which may well be crucial, should a playoff date with the in-form Rabbitohs be looming). They’ll have to do it with a re-tooled spine, having dropped Mason Lino and lost Kurt Mann to suspension. This feels like the worst possible time to be making adjustments to key positions, especially coming into a match against a Dragons side who’ve been playing relatively well of late. Sure, St George-Illawarra ultimately got pumped by Canberra, but they were well in the game at half-time (trailing 14-8), and do have the capacity to put points on. If Newcastle’s attack stutters, we actually give the Dragons a reasonable chance for an upset here – the Knights’ D has shown a propensity for being torched on occasion (they leaked 10 line breaks in a game to both the Roosters and Warriors within the past month), and winger Starford Toa is fast becoming a prime target for opposition offenses (he has a tackle efficiency of just 63%, and has leaked 7 line breaks in 6 games). With so much on the line for Newcastle, we’re putting our faith in Kalyn Ponga and co to outscore the Dragons, but to be quite honest, we’re actually not terribly confident.

Related NRL News & Posts:

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2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 102/136 (75%) (Last week: 7/8)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Rabbitohs
• Sea Eagles
• Panthers
• Raiders
• Titans
• Roosters
• Storm
• Sharks

Notes

• After ripping apart Manly and Parramatta for 11 line breaks each, it was no surprise to see the Rabbitohs crash back to earth without their star fullback Latrell Mitchell, and against the premier defense in the NRL. That being said, they certainly weren’t terrible. Most impressive to us was their continued improvement on D. On the season, the Bunnies have been slightly above average in the key defensive metrics of LBCVOA (-7.94%) and TBCVOA (-9.49%). However, if we narrow that down to just their past 4 weeks, they suddenly begin to look elite. Over that period, their numbers are -29.68% and -18.84%, respectively – placing them 2nd and 1st in the league. If this trend continues, their improved defense may well counterbalance any Mitchell-related drop in offensive output, and keep them in the tier just below Melbourne, Penrith and Sydney. It’ll get another good test this weekend against the Tigers, who crept into the Top 5 offenses with their 8th score of 24+ against the Sea Eagles last weekend. If it holds up, the Tigers’ woeful D should take care of the rest; but as we often point out, the Tigers’ do have the attacking aptitude to punish a poor effort, which is enough to stop us short of considering the outcome a lock.
• No Keiran Foran, no chance. That’s our summarised position for the Bulldogs. Foran has been herculean in his efforts to carry his side this year, and his production is unlikely to be replaced by… *checks notes* Jake Averillo. Let’s consider what they have to replace: despite having missed three games (and failed to finish a fourth), Foran has had a hand in 19 of his side’s 39 tries in 2020, providing the assist in 13 of those. He’s created 15 line break assists – almost triple the next best option (Will Hopoate and Jeremy Marshall-King, with 6 each) – and somehow even leads his team in metres-per-carry, despite hobbling around the field like a geriatric. The Bulldogs are the worst attacking team in the competition with him – it’s difficult to imagine just how bad they’ll be without him. Casting our minds back to the opening three weeks of the season (in which Foran was absent), it makes for unhappy reading – they scored just 4 tries combined in 3 games, with a LBVOA of -58.26%. Yes, the Sea Eagles are shit, and have leaked 26+ for 6 weeks in a row, but it would take an extraordinary surge in Canterbury’s productivity for that to become 7.
• We certainly weren’t whelmed by anything the Panthers did against Brisbane last weekend (though we note that they did still manage to win by 13), but whatever disappointment they caused seemed to stem primarily from their ultra-conservative gameplan more than anything else. It was immediately obvious that Penrith had come into the match committed to working exclusively through the middle third of the field, with Nathan Cleary turning the ball inside so much, he would have brought back bad memories of Luke Walsh to long-time Panthers fans. This is reflected in their numbers – against Brisbane, Penrith has 7 forwards make double-digit runs, with James Fisher-Harris topping the group with 24(!). The week earlier against Wests, there was 3. And when the ball gets turned back inside, it naturally comes at the expense of the guys on the outside, with Stephen Crichton in particular seeing his touches drop from 16 against Cronulla, to just 7 last weekend. Suffice to say that if you’re not getting the ball to your top attacking weapons, you’re surely aware that your offensive output will be adversely affected. That being said, they weren’t the only side to slip into an attacking coma last weekend. Compare the following numbers:
  • Team A) LBVOA: -68.68% RMVOA: 5.10%
  • Team B) LBVOA: -45.57% RMVOA: 5.97%

The top team was the painfully conservative Panthers. The second? The Roosters. Our point here isn’t to say that Penrith were good. They weren’t. Rather it’s to say that they were boring because they chose to be boring, and weren’t considerably worse than their main competition (and nobody’s calling the Roosters pretenders). They’ll be fine.

• As for the Eels, we don’t like this matchup for them one bit. The issue here is that the Eels’ offense is built to attack on the back of quick play-the-balls, rolling through the middle third of the field. This was particularly glaring against the Warriors, with Parra’s offense coming to a grinding halt the moment that Joseph Paulo and Reagan Campbell-Gillard came off the field (indeed, they haven’t scored a try without them on the field since putting one past Melbourne’s reserve grade side in Round 15, and have just 3 combined since Round 12). The issue here is twofold: the Panthers’ offense doesn’t slow down at all when their bench rotation comes on (working backwards, the Panthers have scored 3, 3, 3 and 2 tries over the past 4 weeks with their bench forwards on the field), and also their run defense (2nd in the league for RMCVOA) is notoriously good at slowing down the ruck, taking away Parramatta’s go-forward. Last time they met, the Eels needed six minutes of miracles to pull it out of the fire after getting dominated for the opening hour. We’re not counting on that happening again.
• The Titans and Broncos is suddenly shaping as the game of the round, with the Gold Coast on a 2-game winning streak (their longest such streak since Rounds 5 & 6 last year), and the Broncos showing some signs of life against Penrith. We’ve been writing for weeks about the Titans’ offensive improvement, but Brisbane are better than you think with the ball, too. Since their 48-0 thrashing at the hands of the Tigers, Brisbane have actually posted an impressive LBVOA of 20.96% (which would place them 4th on the season). So, why are they stuck in the middle of an 8-game losing streak? Well, there’s two reasons. First, they constantly find themselves on the wrong side of the possession count. Through that 7-week period, Brisbane have won the possession count just once (by a slim 51-49), with an average possession share of just 46%. This is caused partly by their absurdly bad discipline (they average 10 total penalties per game, worst in the league), and also a total inability to generate repeat sets (as a team, they rank dead last for forced drop-outs; incidentally, they’ve forced 2 or more drop-outs in just 3 games all year… and won 2 of them). This is bad news for Brisbane, but wonderful news for the Titans, who’ve won just 1 from 10 when they’ve lost the possession battle. The other major issue for Brisbane is that their defense is simply horrendous. Prior to last week, they’d conceded 6+ line breaks for 7 weeks in a row; and before you get carried away with their effort against Penrith, we’ll stop you there. As we explained above, Penrith inexplicably focused their attack through the middle third of the Broncos’ D… but that isn’t where they struggle. Rather, Brisbane’s issues lie on their edges – and they didn’t do anything terribly impressive there, they simply weren’t tested. Brisbane somehow manage to have 4 players within the NRL’s worst 20 for line breaks conceded, and all play on the edge (Herbie Farnworth, Brodie Croft, Xavier Coates and Kotoni Staggs). Though Croft (and possibly Coates) won’t be there, it’s nonetheless obvious where teams should be attacking. And if there’s one thing the Titans do extremely well, it’s hit those edges. Outside backs Anthony Don, AJ Brimson and Corey Thompson rank 18th, 21st and 23rd in the league respectively for line breaks, they just need to get better at converting them into tries. With plenty of ball and an attacking style built to hit the Broncos’ biggest weakness, this looks like a good matchup for the Gold Coast – if their defense can hold up.
• If you’re wondering why the Knights look so juicily priced coming off their dominant thumping of Cronulla, the answer is that Kalyn Ponga, Mitch Barnett and Hymel Hunt have all been rested. We’d suggest looking elsewhere.
• There’s certainly an argument to be made that the Warriors are well priced for their knockout tilt against the Sharks this weekend, but we’re only on board if Shaun Johnson is ultimately ruled out. As surprisingly good as New Zealand have been, they remain hugely inconsistent on D, and have only turned in 2 above average attacking performances all year (against Canterbury and Newcastle). Picking them would require putting your faith in their defense – which has been hit-and-miss all season, and is facing one of the real high-octane offenses of the competition this week. Sure, Cronulla were terrible last weekend, but their defense is always terrible – they rank 2nd last in the competition. There real issue was that their offense didn’t turn up to dig them out of trouble, something that should be aided by the return of Johnson. Prior to losing Johnson, the Sharks had scored 12 or less points just twice in their first 14 matches; without him, it happened twice from 3. Johnson has been in irresistible form in 2020, ranking 1st in the league for try assists. Without him, Cronulla were a shell of themselves. Assuming he’s back – and he has been named – we have far more faith in Cronulla’s offense than we do gambling on the Warriors’ ability to punish Cronulla’s crummy D (they’ve played 5 games against bottom-5 defenses, scoring 20+ 3 times, but 12 or less twice).

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2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 95/128 (74%) (Last week: 5/8)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Panthers
• Knights
• Storm
• Titans
• Tigers
• Roosters
• Eels
• Dragons

Notes

• It’s no secret that the Broncos have been terrible this year, but generally speaking, their issues have been primarily on the defensive side of the ball. After re-shuffling the deck again last weekend and rolling out a Sean O’Sullivan/Tom Deardon halves combination, they somehow managed to butcher their offense as well. The changes resulted in a clunky, error-riddled effort (their 12 errors was their 4th-worst performance of the season) that produced their lowest LBVOA since their 48-0 spanking at the hands of the Tigers in Round 10. Though they’ll surely be better for the run (and the addition of Payne Haas), it gets no easier for them against the league’s 2nd-best defense. Worse still, Brisbane’s trash defense that just got lit up by the Roosters for 12 line breaks and 10 tries, now has to face a Panthers offense that’s made 5 or more line breaks in 7 of the past 8 weeks, and is bolstered by the addition of Viliame Kikau. We may well be reaching through the record books for “most points conceded in a two-week period” by half-time.
• What has happened to the Knights’ attack? After having been one of the most effective offenses in the league through the first 14 weeks, they’ve come to a grinding halt over the past fortnight, creating just 5 line breaks and 3 tries combined against a pair of Bottom 8 defenses (North Queensland and New Zealand). So what’s different? It would be easy to point to the absence of Bradman Best as a reason, were it not for the fact that he was also out for the two weeks prior, in which they ran up totals of 44 and 26 against Manly and Wests. Similarly, you may point to the absence of Daniel Saifiti, however his previous four-week absence was actually the Knights’ highest four-week period for LBVOA of the season (24.93%). Instead, we’d suggest the issue has just been a lack of involvement from their best player, Kalyn Ponga. Ponga’s 28 receipts last weekend were his fewest in any game this year, while the week prior he had his 5th-fewest touches. With Ponga leading his team in try assists, try involvements, line breaks and line break assists, it should go without saying that the more he touches the ball, the better for Newcastle. Since the more time they spend with the ball the more opportunities he’ll have to touch it, step one is winning the possession count. Though the Knights are generally very good for ball-handling (they have the 3rd-fewest errors in the NRL), they can be prone to giving away high penalty counts. Indeed, last weekend, their 12 total penalties conceded resulted in a miniscule 37% possession share, leaving them virtually no chance of winning the contest. Back at home this week, we’re expecting that to improve. Further, they should also win the error count, given they’ve made 8 or fewer errors in 7 matches so far – a mark Cronulla have hit just twice.
• That said, we’re certainly not ruling out the Sharks. With Newcastle recently struggling for points, Cronulla should be liking their chances. However, they’re certainly not without flaws of their own – Cronulla own the 2nd-worst defense in the league, and so appear well-placed to play the Knights’ offense into a little bit of form. To their credit, Cronulla’s defensive effort last weekend was actually their best showing since Round 4. However, that should be put into context. First, the Cowboys threw absolutely nothing at Cronulla – their 2 offloads in an entire game of footy is the lowest recorded this year. Second, despite being one of the Sharks’ best defensive efforts of the season, their LBCVOA of -2.16% for that game has been bettered by Newcastle in all but 3 matches this season. So the question is this: what is more likely – that the Knights offense can return to their season average level (in which case, they should run up a score), or the Sharks defense improves even further, despite already being at their season peak? In tipping Newcastle, we’re guessing that both sides regress towards their season averages, but we can understand people arguing otherwise.
• Nobody in their right mind would have tipped the Rabbitohs this week anyway, but we just want to highlight what a huge loss Latrell Mitchell will be for the Bunnies. Fact: the 2 games Mitchell missed earlier in the season are the only 2 games the Rabbitohs have lost since Round 8. They’re also the team’s two lowest scores in that period (12 and 18), and include the team’s lowest and 4th-lowest LBVOA since Round 6. Quite simply, without Mitchell, their offense didn’t look the same, and struggled badly to create tries. That said, we expect to see more change in their offensive structure this time around. Though it’ll still be Alex Johnston taking Latrell’s place, the difference is that this time, they know Mitchell is gone for the year. There were never going to be wholesale changes to the side’s attacking structure last time, knowing Mitchell would be back in a fortnight. Now, though, they don’t have a choice. As the league-leader in line break assists, the Rabbitohs’ running game was built entirely around Mitchell, and to put it bluntly, Johnston simply doesn’t have the playmaking skill-set to fill that role. As a result, the team will need to adjust their attacking shapes, and will likely lean on Cody Walker to pick up the slack. This isn’t hopeless, but it’s going to take time – and a single week before playing the league’s best defense is unlikely to be enough.
• Long-time readers will have heard this before: where line breaks are, tries will soon follow. You can often spot an incoming offensive breakout before it happens by identifying a team with huge line break numbers but an oddly low try tally. The Titans look like the perfect such candidate. Over the past four weeks, they’ve created an incredible 38 line breaks (most in the league), yet have scored just 15 tries (8th). This try-to-line break ratio (0.39) is absurdly low (after the Titans, the next lowest such ratio is 0.71), and will almost inevitably correct itself. And there’s no better team to face for such a correction than the Bulldogs, who concede the most tries per line break in the league (0.91). Should this ratio fall somewhere in the middle here, we’d expect the Titans to have about 4 tries in them – a total the Bulldogs have only reached twice all year. In short, we quite like the Titans, and think they’re well priced.
• The great big mystery game of Week 17 will see the Sea Eagles host the Tigers at Lottoland. Both these sides have seen their defenses fall off a cliff over the past month or so. In the case of Manly, they’ve lost 5 straight, conceding 26+ on each occasion. Typically, their issues begin with bad field position (they were outgained by at least 299m in 4 of those losses), from which they either get beaten via line breaks, or kicks in behind their wingers. With a makeshift backline on tap here (Reuben Garrick has joined the rest of their starters on the sideline), we’d suggest the edges are the place to attack – rookie Albert Hopoate was abused by the Storm last week, leaking 3 breaks in a single game of footy. He’ll be targeted this week by Wests’ left edge, Leuciano Leilua and Adam Douehi (who just quietly are 33rd and 8th in the league for tackle breaks). But are we confident picking the Tigers? Oh gosh, no. It’s hard to feel confident when Wests have been every bit as ordinary. Like Manly, they too have won just 1 of their last 6, and are now on a 6-game streak conceding 26+. However, unlike the Sea Eagles, Wests have at least shown some aptitude with the footy. While Manly have registered 3 or fewer line breaks for 3 weeks on the trot, to find 3 such occasions for Wests you’d have to go all the way back to Round 5. Though we completely understand the inclination to back Manly, if we’re being honest, it seems more like a tip built on reputation than anything they’ve done on the field – and when you look at their team list, you’ll realise that what they’re trotting out looks very little like the Manly you remember.
• You may recall that the last time the Raiders and Roosters met, Canberra pulled Sydney’s pants down with a huge upset, the week after losing Josh Hodgson to an ACL tear. That loss marked the start of a pretty ordinary 5-week stretch for Sydney, in which they dropped 2 games, and managed unconvincing wins over Bottom-8 sides the Titans, Warriors and Dragons. However, they’re playing a lot better now. Through that five-week period, the Roosters averaged a woeful LBVOA of -17.30%; in the two weeks since? 135.44%. Now, they’re getting back Luke Keary and Angus Crichton, and debuting Sonny Bill Williams. We’re not expecting another boilover here.
• Though they keep surprising us, we’re tipping the other shoe to finally drop for the Warriors this week. Not because their opponent is traveling particularly well; if anything, the Eels have been dreadful for the past month or so. Rather, we think they’ll finally fall victim to their dire player shortage. In scenes reminiscent of Australia recalling Paul Reiffel to carry the drinks against Australia A back in the 94/95 summer of cricket, the Eels have recalled George Jennings and Daniel Alvaro for this clash, but won’t actually be using them. For the record, we don’t blame Parramatta one bit – they’ve been doing the Warriors a huge favour, and with their Top 4 spot teetering, it’s a no-brainer that they don’t want to see their own players used against them. But they’re big outs. Jennings, for example, has been in career-best form – he sits 3rd on the Warriors for line breaks, despite having made just 5 appearances. Similarly, Alvaro has been a useful addition to a side light on for forwards, sitting 2nd in the team for tackle efficiency, and making just a single error in 5 games. Gerard Beale is an enormous downgrade from Jennings offensively, and the side are so light for middles that they couldn’t even name 21 healthy players on Tuesday. Even allowing for losing Dylan Brown to injury, if Parramatta can’t win this one, they might as well give it away.
• There are plenty of reasons why the Cowboys are terrible, with the most obvious ones being on the defensive side of the ball. But with the loss of Jason Taumalolo, the Cows may be in just as big a hole on offense, too. Without Taumalolo against the Sharks, the Cows registered an unimpressive -7.08% RMVOA (good enough to be the worst in the league), on their way to getting outgained by 422m. With limited field position and a shocking inefficiency at generating line breaks (their 4 was the equal-fewest the Sharks have conceded since Round 2), it’s little wonder they were held to just 12 points. With the Cowboys boasting the worst defense in the league, any questions at all about their offense makes them virtually impossible to tip.

Related NRL News & Posts:

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2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 90/120 (75%) (Last week: 7/8)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Eels
• Dragons
• Roosters
• Knights
• Sharks
• Panthers
• Storm
• Raiders

Notes

• We kick off Round 16 with a pretty clear “game of the week”. In a round littered with Top 8 vs Bottom 8 clashes, a match-up between a pair of likely finals-bound sides should be the highlight. Of course, a competitive match does not necessarily equal a “good” match. This game should come with a disclaimer that there’s every chance the action will be stifled, interrupted, and have many minutes lost while blokes mill around packing scrums. The Eels and Rabbitohs enter this clash as the 2nd and 4th worst offenders in terms of errors, with Parramatta in particular currently in the middle of a 7-game stretch of matches in which they’ve made double-digit errors – a streak exceeded only by the extraordinarily clumsy Titans and Cowboys. This observation lends itself to a pretty obvious question – if they keep turning the ball over, how on earth are they still winning? The answer here is: with a lot of help. The following is their Total Penalties conceded per game over that period (Total Penalty count is the sum of blown penalties and set restarts), working backwards:
  • 4 (vs 11)
  • 7 (vs 7)
  • 4 (vs 11)
  • 7 (vs 9)
  • 4 (vs 11)
  • 7 (vs 12)
  • 14 (vs 8)

Looking at the above, one thing sticks out – Parramatta have benefited from some ridiculously lop-sided penalty counts. Only twice in seven weeks have they not won the count, and unsurprisingly, one of those was a loss (against the Dragons a fortnight ago). The takeaway here is that when we get to the finals and referees become less inclined to to intervene in the game, the Eels are likely to be in some strife. Despite being gifted bucket-loads of extra sets, they’ve still only won 5 of these 7 outings, and with an average margin of just 6 points. We’re not expecting anything to suddenly change on Thursday night at BankWest, but it does illustrate how much assistance they’ve received on their way to one of the least impressive Top-4 berths in recent memory. Combining an expected friendly penalty count with a clear advantage in go-forward (the Eels dominate Souths in RMVOA 7.60% vs -0.39%), we’re expecting to see plenty of Parra attacking the Rabbits’ line – and that’s bad news for South Sydney. The Rabbitohs’ goal-line defense is their defensive Achilles’ Heel, particularly on their left edge, where Campbell Graham has become a target (his 13 line breaks conceded is the 12th-most in the NRL). Expect to see Parramatta heading that way, and Waqa Blake to have a decent showing.

• While the Thursday game is the only match-up between Top 8 teams, the early Friday game is the only one between two Bottom 8 teams. Like the game above, this has the potential to be interesting, but mainly due to the incredibly wide range of potential outcomes. At some point or another you need to give the Titans credit, and after producing 30 line breaks in three weeks (including 8 against the typically solid Raiders), their offense is clearly doing something right. Here, they get to face a Dragons side that’s leaked 5+ line breaks in 4 of their last 5, suggesting the Gold Coast should be good for something like 4-5 LBs here themselves, which would result in something like 3 tries. So, why aren’t we tipping them? Because their defense is so bad that 3 tries would have only been enough for them to win in 3 of their 15 matches so far. In every other match they’ve conceded 18+ points, and against a St George-Illawarra side who’ve scored 4+ tries in 5 of their past 7, it’s hard to make a strong argument for that changing here. That said, there’s a non-zero chance that the Dragons’ D flounders (they looked pretty iffy against Brisbane), in which case it could be the Titans who run up a score. We expect the Dragons to get it, but it’s not a formality.
• The Roosters are back, baby. We’d been waiting six weeks for them to awaken from their mid-season slumber, and they did so with a roar last weekend against the Tigers (or, perhaps more appropriately, with a cock-a-doodle-doo). They recorded season-highs in LBVOA (158.30%) and RMVOA (20.95%), and their 2nd-best number of the year for TBVOA (52.21%) in their thumping victory, which was all the more impressive given the absence of star half Luke Keary. Against the league’s 3rd-worst defense, it’d take a very brave punter to tip against a strong encore performance.
• The Warriors kept the dream alive last weekend, but we weren’t terribly taken by anything they produced. They managed enough opportunistic tries to get the job done, but there were still a few ominous signs for their defense that are impossible to ignore. For example, their inability to limit Canterbury’s yardage throughout the first half was concerning, particularly considering the low calibre of opponent. This improved in the second half (largely because Canterbury were starting their sets in difficult positions), but the match still resulted in the Dogs’ 6th-highest yardage total of the year, and the first game all season in which they’ve made over 1500m while losing the possession count. This is concerning for New Zealand because of the opponent they have coming up: the Knights rank 2nd in the league for RMVOA (7.40%), and are coming off an outing in which they put over 1900m on North Queensland. As a result, we fully expect the Warriors to get smoked for yardage, which bodes poorly for them: in the 9 games this year in which they’ve been outgained, they’ve lost 8, by an average margin of 22.75. Which leads us to our other observation – after a strong start to the season, New Zealand are beginning to hemorrhage line breaks, giving up another 5 against Canterbury, marking the 4th week in a row in which they’ve conceded 5 or more. Put simply, if you leak line breaks in your own red zone, they will lead to tries. If you spend most of the game in your own red zone, while leaking 5+ line breaks, you will concede a lot of tries. Ergo, their current defensive trendline suggests that the Knights could be in for an offensive feast this weekend.
• With the two worst defenses in the league going head-to-head on a warm Saturday evening, it’s fair to say that we love the overs for the Sharks/Cowboys game (even at the relatively high total of 44.5). So far in 2020, matches between any combination of the Bottom 4 defenses have seen overall points totals completely within the range of 40-62, with an average total of 46.9. Additionally, those figures are dragged down by Cronulla’s slow start to the year, before their offense really got humming. Since Round 6, they’ve accounted for 20+ points on their own in 8 of 10 matches, and cracked 30+ in 5 of them. Coupled with the Sharks’ hilariously awful defense, it’s no surprise that within games in which they’ve scored 20, the overall points total has averaged a ludicrous 56 points per game. As for the winner, the Sharks’ O is certainly better equipped to win a shoot-out, and should be the difference here. But it should be a lot of fun.
• Like hit 90s rom-com Pretty Woman, it’ll be a contrasting tale of two hookers when the Panthers host the Tigers on Saturday night. For Penrith, it’ll be Mitch Kenny holding the fort while Api Koroisau rests his calf. The loss of Api shouldn’t be underestimated – in his only prior absence this year (Week 11 vs the Titans), the Panthers recorded their lowest RMVOA and 3rd-lowest LBVOA of the season. Kenny is a sound defender and honest toiler, but is a significant downgrade creatively with the ball. The loss of Koroisau and star second-rower Viliame Kikau has us downgrading our expectations for the Panthers’ otherwise red-hot offense. Conversely, it’s fair to expect the Tigers to look a little bit sharper with hooker Harry Grant returning from injury. The difference may only be slight, but it’s notable that in games with Grant at hooker, the Tigers’ LBVOA climbs to 9.29%, vs 1.86% without him. Head-to-head, Grant is unquestionably the better of the two hookers we’ll see on Saturday night, but if we learnt anything from Julia Roberts’ Roy Orbison montage, it’s that a hooker’s value changes considerably based on their outfit – and here the difference is stratospheric. While Kenny gets to feed the ball to the league leader in try involvements (Nathan Cleary) and two Top-6 players in try assists (Cleary and Jarome Luai), Grant is stuck providing service to Benji Marshall (a respectable 9th in try involvements) and… Luke Brooks? (A less respectable 59th in try assists.) And that’s before we even get to their respective defenses. The Tigers have fallen off a cliff on that side of the ball, recording a LBCVOA of 31.10% over the past 5 weeks (2nd-worst in the league) on their way to averaging over 32 points conceded per game. In contrast, the Panthers have yet to concede that many points in any game all year. So while Grant may be special, if you think Penrith can’t get it done just because our boy Kenny looks a little rough around the edges, you could be making a big mistake. Huge.
• You can’t get a more spectacular list of “ins” than that of the Storm this week – Cameron Smith, Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes and Jesse Bromwich have all parachuted into Melbourne’s team just in time to face a Sea Eagles side coming off one of the most embarrassing efforts in club history. After a down week offensively, we’re expecting the Storm’s attack to immediately improve, and drive the final nail into the coffin of a Manly side who’ve leaked 5+ tries in their past 4 consecutive games.
• We don’t often write much about the Bulldogs (it requires very little analysis to recognise that they aren’t very good), however after erroneously tipping them to win last weekend (sorry), we feel it’s worth pointing out the two most obvious areas in which they need to improve. First, though their defense is generally decent, they have a curious habit of failing to get more than 2 players involved in each tackle. Though this may just be laziness, it happens often enough that we’re inclined to believe it’s been coached – and it has to stop. Failing to get a third man in unsurprisingly affects their ability to control the ruck, resulting in plenty of quick play-the-balls, and opposition sides getting to attack a retreating defensive line. What effect does this have? Well, it’s the primary reason for their league-worst RMCVOA (7.44%), and leaves them susceptible to conceding line breaks (due to the reduced time to get set). Teams with elite RMCVOAs (Melbourne and Penrith, for example) religiously get three men in, and the results speak for themselves. Second, the Bulldogs are SLOW. Typically, teams that create more line breaks score more tries, but that oddly doesn’t apply to Canterbury, who rank a distant last in tries scored. They’ve had no issue creating scoring opportunities, however they lack the speed and polish to do anything with them. The primary culprit in this regard is winger Nick Meaney. Meaney ranks 9th among NRL wingers for line breaks, yet somehow finds himself 26th for try involvements. Hopefully the arrival of Nic Cotric next season means Canterbury fans are no longer subjected to the slow-twitch muscle fibers of Meaney, but still, a backline featuring Will Hopoate, Kerrod Holland and Marcelo Montoya is hardly exciting. No wonder they have their eye on Penrith’s Ferrari, Charlie Staines.

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2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 83/112 (74%) (Last week: 7/8)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Eels
• Panthers
• Dragons
• Raiders
• Roosters
• Rabbitohs
• Bulldogs
• Knights

Notes

• It is with a heavy heart that we find ourselves begrudgingly forced to tip the Eels this week. Please allow us to make one thing clear – Parramatta are not on Melbourne’s level. They belong more appropriately in the Canberra/Newcastle range, and on form, would probably lose to them as well. However, injuries and suspension have combined to turn this game on its head. A week ago, the Storm pulled one out of the drawer to thump the Roosters without both their superstar Camerons. At a glance, this would lend support to the notion that they could do the same to Parramatta (who, as we’ve mentioned, are worse than the Roosters). However, this isn’t apples to apples. For a start, a huge factor in the Storm’s win was the dominance of their forward pack. The outgained the Roosters by almost 300m on the night, generated largely by having six different forwards run for over 100m (for context, the Roosters had just three). However, two things are significantly different here. One, two of those forwards – Jesse Bromwich and Dale Finucane – are now out, due to suspension and injury, respectively. Two, that was effectively a reserve-grade Roosters pack. Here, they’ll be facing an Eels engine room that’s essentially at 100% – and is arguably the equal of Melbourne’s anyway. Yes, Melbourne’s run defense is the envy of the league, with a RMCVOA of -10.63% (a distant 1st). But Parramatta actually hold a significant advantage when it comes to metres gained, owning a RMVOA of 6.41% (3rd), vs the Storm’s -0.93% (9th). In short, we would expect the Eels’ ability to generate metres to counterbalance the Storm’s knack for defending them – and that’s before considering the loss of the two key middles. And without the dominant territorial advantage they enjoyed last weekend, how confident can we be that the Storm will generate points? This is the big question mark, and where we have to err on the conservative side. Though they barely missed a beat last week without Munster and Smith, the expectation that Jahrome Hughes will be a late scratching has tipped us over the edge. Hughes put the team on his back last week, producing 1 try, 1 try assist, and 2 line breaks. On the season, he’s 1st on the team for try involvements (20). Should Hughes sit out, the Storm will have a combined 32 line break assists sitting on the sideline (for perspective, the lowly Warriors have 38 line breaks for the season… total). Control of their offense will be turned over to the superbly average Ryley Jacks, who has just 3 try involvements in 6 appearances. Finally, though the two sides’ head-to-head record heavily favours Melbourne, it is illuminating to look back to the last time Parramatta beat Melbourne, in 2017. On that day, the Storm were missing their complete spine (seems familiar), a handful of key forwards (Jordan Maclean, Cameron Welch and Tim Glasby), were marshaled around the field by Ryley Jacks (oh dear) and were objectively a better team than Parramatta for the season – they would go on to win their next 10 straight on the way to winning the Grand Final; Parramatta would be bundled out in the finals in straight sets. Everything about this feels like history repeating.
• We suspect the Sharks will be devastated to see Brian To’o back for the Panthers. In addition to his powerful running giving a further boost to the start of Penrith’s sets (To’o remains 2nd among Panthers outside backs for hit-ups, despite having missed 6 games, and packs an incredible 10 metres-per-carry – 5th in the league among wingers), it will also facilitate Brent Naden shuffling in to the centres. Though you may have forgotten how beastly Naden is as a three-quarter, we’re confident the Sharks haven’t – the last time they met, Naden ripped them a new one, contributing 1 try, 1 try assist, 5 tackle breaks, 1 line break and 2 line break assists. Coming off an outing in which Cronulla got obliterated for 11 line breaks by a Gold Coast team ranked 2nd last for LBVOA, the idea that Penrith’s somehow getting stronger ought to put the fear of God into them. After a slowish week against New Zealand, we fully expect Penrith to put the throttle down at home.
• We mentioned last week that the Norman/Clune/Hunt spine combination has been the Dragons’ strongest, but even we were shocked to see them pull off the upset against Parramatta. The challenge here will be to back it up against a team they should most definitely beat. The Broncos will see Payne Haas and Thomas Flegler join Matt Lodge and Tevita Pangai Jr on the sidelines, leaving them with a patchwork forward pack to lay the foundation for their misfiring backline. Their offense has had its moments, but their under-strength engine room gets dominated every week (they’ve been outgained in 12 of their 14 matches, including their last 5 in a row). Against a Dragons pack that’s posted 1500m+ in their past 3 straight (a mark Brisbane have hit just twice all season), they’re on a hiding to nothing. Checking St George-Illawarra’s draw, this may be an opportunity for the Dragons to go on a little bit of a run.
• Don’t look now, but over the past fortnight only one team has made double-digit line breaks in a game: and it’s the Titans. And they’ve done it twice. Now, that should come with the disclaimer that over the past two weeks they’ve had the good fortune of facing the two worst defenses in football (the Sharks and Cowboys), but the point stands – as far as the Titans’ offense goes, they are unquestionably in the best form they’ve been in for years. Of course, we won’t be tipping them until we’ve seen them produce against a competent defense (and the Raiders are most definitely such a D), largely because their own defense remains prone to conceding huge volumes of points (they’ve conceded 20+ in 10 of 14 games so far, and haven’t conceded fewer than 4 line breaks in a game for 6 weeks). But, should they keep their current level of offensive production going, they might be able to rack up a few scores in coming weeks, with below-average defenses like Brisbane and Canterbury on the horizon.
• We’re somewhat surprised that there hasn’t been more interest in the Tigers this week, particularly after seeing the Roosters get hammered by a Cameron-less Melbourne side. The Roosters will now be without both Luke Keary and Lachlam Lam, a change that isn’t likely to see their sputtering offense improve. For the Roosters to win, it will need to be on the strength of their defense, not their offense. The Tigers have points to burn, but are developing the look of flat-track bullies: through 14 weeks, they’ve played just 6 games against Top 8-ranked defenses, for an average of 14.3 points-per-game; in the remaining 8 games against Bottom-8 defenses, that doubles to 28.5. We’re reasonably content to say that if the Roosters’ #3-ranked defense defends to its typical standard, they should have the points in them to get home, despite the halves shake-up (after all, prior to last week’s whooping, they’d scored 18 or more in their previous 11 straight games). But if the Roosters D lets up – even a little – the Tigers have proven themselves more than capable of punishing weak defensive efforts, and that would really test the Roosters’ ability to keep pace. We’re backing Sydney, but think the Tigers’ price is tempting.
• As expected, the loss of Addin Fonua-Blake and Marty Taupau saw the Sea Eagles return to their bad old ways, getting hammered for yardage by 299m (again). Perhaps the saddest part of that is that most viewers would argue that this was the best that many of their reserve forwards have played all season. If they hadn’t had to waste 14 hit-ups on a bloke making 6 metres-per-carry (looking at you, Plod), they very well might have won. Instead, it’s back to the drawing board, and another likely week spent scrapping to get out of their own end. Though it took a minor miracle for the Rabbitohs to get home against North Queensland, it’s worth noting that they did outperform their opponent in line breaks, tackle breaks and offloads and were largely under the pump due to poor field position (not likely to be a problem) and a lack of possession (they had just 44% of the ball, yet somehow managed a win – that’s actually quite the accomplishment). Should those issues disappear, Souths should have more than enough to handle Manly, who trail Souths in every offensive metric. Though Souths’ defense is admittedly vulnerable on the edges, a backline of Taufua-Parker-Suli-Funa hardly strikes fear in the hearts of opposing Ds (none have more than 7 line breaks – a mark exceeded by Alex Johnston, Dane Gagai and Cody Walker), and besides; the Sea Eagles susceptibility to kicks in behind them – especially Taufua, who has the turning circle of a semi-trailer – gives them a defense that be easily exposed by good coaching and Souths’ kicking game.
• The Sunday afternoon clash between the Bulldogs and Warriors looms as a potential match-of-the-round, at least from a competitiveness stand-point. Sure, neither side is in the middle of a particularly impressive season, but since punting their respective coaches, both sides have produced some improvement in results. Though it’s the Warriors who’ve grabbed the headlines under Todd Payten and been universally praised for their performances, we’re actually of the view that it’s Canterbury who are performing better. This is a difficult position to take – one is never filled with confidence tipping a team with just 2 wins on the season (oddly, the last time we did, it was backing the Warriors to upset Brisbane), however the numbers are reasonably firm. First, let’s talk about Canterbury. The first thing that should be pointed out is that they’re a lot better with Keiran Foran in the team. Their LBVOA is poor (-23.68%), but its artificially lower because of their awful performances in the opening rounds without Foran. Counting only the games in which Foran’s played, that number climbs to -14.73%. Again, this is ordinary, but it’s a long way better than the Warriors’ last-placed -34.73%. However, it’s also worth noting that Foran is coming back from a long lay-off. It would be reasonable to expect that Foran’s numbers would slowly improve as he gets his legs under him – and that’s exactly what’s happened. Through his first 5 games back, Foran produced just 1 try assist, but in his next 6, he produced another 9. Comparing these two periods, we unsurprisingly see a climb in LBVOA, from -19.33% in Foran’s first 5, to -10.90% since. Our point here is that there is a consistent pattern of improvement for the Bulldogs’ offense, and with the further boost of Will Hopoate’s return (Hopoate ranks 2nd in the team with 4 line break assists, despite having played just 7 matches), there’s no reason to think that shouldn’t continue. But is the same true of the Warriors? In a word: no. Though they have been improving, their LBVOA under Payten (-26.20%) remains worse than that of the Bulldogs, even if you include the period where Foran wasn’t playing. In the past three weeks, the Bulldogs have produced 5 line breaks twice; the Warriors have hit that mark once all season, and that was all the way back in Round 8. They don’t break the line, meaning that they’re typically forced to rely on kicks to generate points – a tactic that depends heavily on field position. But unfortunately, they lost their best forward, Jack Hetherington, to suspension a week ago – a development that resulted in them getting outgained by Penrith to the tune of 582m(!). This lack of punch in the forwards will only be further tested with the suspension of Eliesa Katoa, their forward leader in tackle breaks (19). With very little go-forward and zero attacking flair, we simply can’t make an argument to justify tipping New Zealand. It feels a bit yucky to tip the team running dead last, but if we’re being true to the numbers, we don’t see any choice – Canterbury are playing better.

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