2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 115/196 (59%)

Line Betting: 40/86 (47%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

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NRL Finals Week 2 Tips and Previews

Sharks v Panthers

Offense VOA: Sharks 4.71% (8th), Panthers 4.81% (7th)

Defense VOA: Sharks -12.65% (4th), Panthers 0.77% (9th)

First up, the Sharks were a little unlucky to lose last weekend against the Roosters. If Luke Lewis doesn’t spill the ball inches above the ground (or if they don’t butcher any of their other plentiful scoring opportunities), they’re likely enjoying a week off right now. However, they did lose, and now that they’re here, it’s actually not a slam dunk that they’re going to roll past the Panthers.

We realise that the Sharks won both their meetings during the regular season (and all their meetings since 2016), however it’d be revisionist history to suggest that Cronulla were comfortable victors in either of those matches. In Round 7, the Sharks got home 26-22, but scored the same number of tries; winning the game through penalty goals. In the return clash the score looked more favourable (24-12), but hid how well Penrith actually played. On that particular night, the Panthers made more line breaks, more tackle breaks, more offloads and more run metres. In fact, about the only thing they didn’t do was score more tries. This, despite being mired in an otherwise bog average two-month form slump.

So, despite what you may have thought about Cronulla’s impressive form line against the Panthers, it’s nowhere near as lop-sided as it looks. Which is important, because the team Penrith will be trotting out at Allianz Stadium will be vastly better than either of the Penrith sides who lost to Cronulla during the season. Returning from their Round 7 loss are representative stars: Josh Mansour, Dallin Watene-Zeleznaik and Nathan Cleary. From the Round 18 loss, Penrith will be adding: Mansour, Watene-Zelezniak, Cleary, Tyrone Peachey, James Maloney and Reagan Campbell-Gillard. That’s an enormous influx of talent to a team that was statistically superior as recently as two months ago.

But perhaps more concerning to Shane Flanagan than the long list of “ins” for Penrith, is the short list of “outs” for Cronulla – specifically, Wade Graham (Josh Dugan is out too, but it’s debatable whether or not they’re any worse with Jesse Ramien in his place). Though the Sharks have done well to win games in his numerous absences this year (including the Round 7 win over Penrith), it’s indisputable that Cronulla’s offense is markedly better when he’s present. Graham ranks second on his team for line break assists with 11, and unsurprisingly, the team’s attacking output slumps when he’s unavailable: with Graham, they possess the 2nd best LBVOA in the NRL, with 18.54%; without him, that drops to a depressing -9.27% (13th). The difference is night and day.

We make all these points, not to argue that we think Penrith are significantly better – we don’t. While the Sharks’ LBVOA without Graham is poor, the Panthers’ over the past month has been an appalling -40.42%. They’re only two weeks removed from a three-week stretch of double-digit errors, and while they defended brilliantly the past two weeks, they’re certainly prone to the odd bed-wetting. Penrith aren’t great.

But they mightn’t need to be. It’s likely that Penrith won’t be required to put another 9 line breaks on Cronulla to win this game – depending on how many opportunities they convert, 4 might be enough to keep it close, and we think that’s within reach (after all, the Panthers hit that mark in both their two prior meetings). And if it is close with the clock winding down, who would you rather pin your hopes on: James Maloney and Nathan Cleary, or Matt Moylan and Chad Townsend. The answer is subjective, but we’ll roll with the New South Wales halves.

Our tip: Panthers

[Read more…]

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