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NRL Tips – Week 9, 2020

July 9, 2020, 12:31 pm By Joel Leave a Comment

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 44/64 (69%) (Last week: 7/8)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
  • Roosters
  • Warriors
  • Rabbitohs
  • Panthers
  • Broncos
  • Storm
  • Eels
  • Sea Eagles

Notes

  • Tipping the Roosters obviously required very little analysis (the only real calculation here was ‘by how much?’), but regardless of the Cowboys‘ impending loss, there are sure to be some questions asked about Paul Green’s team selection (which turned out to be just the first in a string of bizarre team lists this week). For example, having bought Scott Drinkwater last year to solve their fullback issues, only to then pay huge dollars to displace him with Valentine Holmes; how do we now have a situation in which Holmes is on the wing, Drinkwater is in the halves, and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – a chap with 3 career first-grade games – is lining up in the #1? Which isn’t to say that Tubuai-Fidow is bad — while his three outings resulted in just one win (and losses to the Tigers and Warriors), he was arguably one of the side’s better attacking performers, producing 2 line breaks and 3 line break assists. But having paid out so much money to solve their fullback issues, we’d love to know why Holmes is being shunted back onto the wing. If the answer is that he’s simply not healthy enough to be fullback, then you have to wonder why he’s on the field at all (and you can be sure that the Roosters will expose him if he’s less than 100%). And if the answer is that the club believes Tabuai-Fidow is simply a better fullback at this point, then you have to wonder how they’ll build a competitive squad while carrying a winger on a giant albatross of a contract. The whole thing is a bit weird.
  • The Warriors made us look clever last weekend, and we’re going back to the well again here. We wouldn’t go far as to say that they outplayed Brisbane – in fact, their VOAs were almost identical across attacking categories. Rather, they outlasted them. New Zealand stuck to the grind and continued to play a reasonably disciplined game, while performing to roughly a league-average standard. This proved to be enough, with Brisbane eventually capitulating and giving away 6 errors and 8 combined penalties (vs the Warriors’ 3 and 3), paving the way for the 59-41 2nd half possession shift that ultimately fed the Warriors’ win.
  • Nevertheless, the fact that the Warriors performed at a league-average level is all we needed to see to tip them here – because the league average against the Titans is over 29 points per game. Though we’d say that the Titans are getting a little better with each passing week, they’re still not very good. Their discipline is horrendous, with the team making double-digit errors in all but one game this year (their upset win over Brisbane), and conceding the 2nd-most combined penalties (only behind – you guessed it – Brisbane). This sees them frequently losing possession shares (they’ve won the possession battle just 3 times in 8 games), and frankly, they simply don’t have either the attacking upside or defensive steel to win games without possession (of the Titans’ 14 wins since the start of 2018, the club has won without 50%+ of possession just once). This makes the Warriors a tough match-up on paper – though they lack much in the way of firepower, they rarely beat themselves, making the 2nd fewest errors in the league, and conceding the 6th fewest combined penalties. And if that’s not compelling enough, consider this: Justin Holbrook has inexplicably named not one, but two second-rowers in the centres this week… and one of them is the defensive meme himself, Bryce Cartwright. Though you have to imagine that Tyrone Peachey will replace one of the pair by game day, we simply will not tip a win for any team with Cartwright named to defend as an outside back. Not now; not ever.
  • The Friday night clash between the Rabbitohs and Tigers is probably the toughest of the round to pick. Both sides’ numbers have spiked over the past three weeks – both the Tigers’ LBVOA of 40.94% and the Bunnies’ 27.22% over that period would be good enough for 2nd in the league overall. In favour of the Rabbitohs is their consistent improvement in yardage – their RMVOA has gradually improved each week since Round 1, peaking last weekend with an insane 1719m, and a VOA of 14.61%. This is partly the result of an improved effort from their forwards, but recognition should perhaps be directed to outside backs Dane Gagai and Campbell Graham, who’ve shouldered much of that load. The pair both rank among the Top 50 in the league for both total runs and run metres, with more than half of those coming via early-tackle hit-ups. Our main concern with the Rabbitohs has been their defensive difficulties – for a team that misses very few tackles (they rank 2nd in the league for TBCVOA), they concede a curiously large volume of line breaks, almost exclusively down their flanks. This creates an intriguing match-up of David Nofoaluma – whose 8 line breaks for the season is more than double that of any of his teammates – and Alex Johnston, whose 7 line breaks conceded tops the Rabbits. We’d be inclined to back the Tigers to successfully hammer that edge, were it not for one, tiny detail – Joey Leilua’s brain snap last weekend has seen him suspended, and his place taken by the lumbering Michael Chee-Kam. Chee-Kam isn’t a terrible footballer, but he is a pretty ordinary centre, with his teams having lost 10 of the 13 matches he’s played there (for context, he’s won 53% of games in the second row, and 46% off the bench). Quite simply, the guy’s a back-rower, and his inclusion in the centres is likely to both weaken the Tigers’ D, and adversely affect their ability to take advantage of the Rabbitohs’ suspect edges. In what otherwise looks like a really tight contest, we fancy this might be the difference.
  • The bookies are evidently putting little faith in the Sharks‘ recent upswing, and probably with good reason – it’s easy to look good when you’re pumping a reserve grade Manly team and the Gold Coast. That being said, we’re not prepared to write them off – the Sharks’ uptick in line breaks has coincided with a surge in tackle breaks (38 and 39 in Rounds 7 & 8, up from their previous season high of just 24), while the Panthers are coming off their worst outing of the season defensively, having missed a whopping 38 tackles against the Tigers. We’re inclined to think that that was just an aberration, but if it wasn’t, then the Sharks offense may well be able to make a contest out of this. (Though whether or not Cronulla’s trash defense is good enough to keep Penrith out remains doubtful.)
  • In our earlier notes on the Warriors, we mentioned that the Broncos performed at roughly a league-average level against New Zealand. This represents a significant improvement for Brisbane, who’d been absolutely dismal on both sides of the ball since the resumption. As it happens, a “league-average” level of offense would be an absolute dream for the Bulldogs, whose Offense VOA of -50.51% ranks dead last in the NRL. We don’t think Brisbane have suddenly turned a corner, but we do believe they looked better than the worst offense in football, who are themselves without their team leader in line break assists (Will Hopoate) and their forward leader in tackle breaks (Adam Elliott). If Brisbane don’t win this, they’re not likely to beat anyone.
  • We made the point at the time, and we’ll repeat it now: the Storm were the better team the last time they played the Raiders, and they’re the better team now. Though the popular narrative is that Canberra played their Grand Final against Melbourne in their Round 3 victory (and have stunk ever since), we maintain that they weren’t even that good then. Let us remind you: on that evening, the Storm made more line breaks (7 v 3), tackle breaks (29 v 18), offloads (10 v 8), run metres (1464 v 1288), post-contact metres (486 v 441) and forced drop-outs (4 v 2). In essence, Melbourne won in every facet of the game except the score. If you share the viewpoint that the Raiders have rapidly gone backwards since that game, then you have absolutely no business tipping Canberra here – if their numbers are somehow worse than that, they’ll get massacred. That said, we doubt that they will be worse; but we also doubt they’ll be markedly better. With Iosia Soliola and Emre Guler joining Corey Horsburgh on the sidelines, the Raiders are now without 3 of their top 5 forwards for yardage, and facing the team with the best yardage defense in the league. Their right edge defense still looks suspect (Michael Oldfield didn’t look like a substantial upgrade from Curtis Scott), and the Storm have Cameron Munster looming on their extended bench as a potential ace in the hole. The Storm look like terrific value to us.
  • Mark us down as being officially concerned with the way the Knights are looking. Though their overall numbers are still decent (and they did come away with the win against Manly), last week marked the 3rd time in 4 weeks that they conceded 4 line breaks (a mark they only hit once in the opening 4 weeks), and once again included some really soft misses through the middle of the field. We’ll give them a pass for the yardage they gave up (since the majority came in the 2nd half when they were playing with a reduced bench), but the frail look of their middle third defense is really worrying. Further, their inability to put away an under-strength Manly side who’d just been pumped by Cronulla was disappointing, particularly given the 58% possession share the Knights enjoyed in the first half. Had they converted that possession into the 3 or 4 tries you’d have expected, Manly’s fightback would have been snuffed out before it had begun. Newcastle’s win was brave, but they shouldn’t have been in that situation in the first place. We firmly believe they have the ability to take it to Parramatta (as recently as a week ago, we were expecting to be tipping Newcastle here), but the way they’ve been playing recently, we can’t ignore the possibility that they might get completely blown out. We’re tipping the worst, but hoping for the best.
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NRL Tips – Week8, 2020

July 2, 2020, 4:55 pm By Joel Leave a Comment

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 37/56 (66%) (Last week: 5/8)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
  • Roosters
  • Raiders
  • Eels
  • Sharks
  • Warriors
  • Panthers
  • Knights
  • Rabbitohs

Notes

  • Though we’ll say upfront that we’re tipping the Roosters to get it done tonight, we can’t help feeling bemused watching the Storm drift out over $3 with the bookies. Yes, the Roosters are the best team in the competition. Yes, they’ve won their last 5 straight matches by 13+. But they’re still beatable – and the Storm are arguably the best constructed team to do it. The recipe for rolling the Roosters was demonstrated in the opening fortnight by Penrith and Manly – essentially, you have to find a way of stopping Sydney’s free-flowing offense. It’s no coincidence that the only teams to beat Sydney so far did so while holding them to 14 points or less; once the Roosters get going, there’s no team in the competition that can hang with them in a shoot-out. But if you can slow down their forwards, you can slow down their scoring – and then you’ve got yourself a contest. The Roosters offense rolls on the back of their dominant forward pack (they rank 1st in the league for RMVOA); their middles grab yards in big chunks (they have six forwards averaging 9+ metres per carry), allowing Keary and co to attack retreating defensive lines. However, if any team can slow them down it’s the Storm, who rank 1st in the league for RMCVOA. In essence, this presents us with a battle between the most dominant metre-eating team and the side who – despite the introduction of the set restart rule that was directly inspired to counteract their control of the ruck – remain the kings of the wrestle and slowing down the play-the-ball. It’s this perfect match-up of skill-sets that has seen the last seven Roosters/Storm matches decided by an average of 4.4 points – and makes the incredibly long odds on Melbourne look deliciously tempting. The loss of Cameron Munster certainly hurts them, but to be clear: they weren’t going to beat the Roosters by outgunning them in the first place. We’re taking the Roosters because they’re the best; but write off the Storm at your own peril.
  • It was nice to see the Raiders turn in strong numbers against Parramatta, even if they couldn’t get it done. The reason we liked it so much is that when paired with this week’s dropping of Curtis Scott (finally!), there’s reason to think the Raiders’ fortunes are about to turn. Over the past fortnight, Canberra’s offense has become significantly more aggressive, with the side recording season-highs for offloads in both outings. Though this aggression came at a cost – they also recorded season-highs for errors, which in turn led to season-lows for possession – it at least showed some intent, and they produced their two highest LBVOA figures since the resumption (14.22% and 39.09%). Of course, they still lost – but that was mainly defense-related. Against Manly, Scott’s decision-making (or lack thereof) directly led to both Manly tries; against Parra, his edge conceded another 3 line breaks. And guess what? He’s been plopped on the bench now, with Michael Oldfield taking his place in the centres. If this leads to the defensive improvement we’d expect, the Raiders might just have found the formula to kick-start their season (of course, Oldfield might also turn out to be shit, but at this point we’re giving him the benefit of the doubt that he couldn’t possibly be worse than Scott).
  • If you’re hungry for points, keep an eye on the Eels/Cowboys match on Friday night. North Queensland matches pretty consistently hit the overs due to their appalling D (every Cows game this season has seen 40+ points scored, and there’s been 50+ in their past three), but there might just be a perfect storm brewing for a real feast of tries. You can pretty much pencil in Parramatta to score 4 or more tries (as North Queensland’s opponents have done in 5 of their 7 matches so far), but we fancy there’s also room for the Cows to grab a few themselves. Over the past three weeks they’ve quietly posted some decent numbers against reasonable defenses, and as a result, find themselves now ranked 4th in the league for LBVOA. This is interesting because the Eels are surprisingly 4th last for LBCVOA (perhaps less surprising once you realise they’ve conceded 6 or more breaks in 3 of their past 4 matches). Taken together, we’d expect the Cowboys to bag a few of their own, and anticipate a high-scoring shoot-out.
  • Few expected the Sharks to run up 40 points against Manly last weekend, but having seen it, we have to tip them to do it again against the league’s 2nd worst defense. It warmed the heart to see the Titans hold somebody to just 2 line breaks in a game (a feat they hadn’t achieved since Round 1, 2019), but let’s be serious – even at their worst, the Sea Eagles remain a better defense than the Titans, and once they leak a few points, the Gold Coast simply don’t have the firepower to keep pace with pretty much anybody (they, Canterbury and New Zealand are the only teams yet to make more than 4 line breaks in a game).
  • How much worse can the Broncos get? After being effectively penalised out of every game since the resumption (they’ve averaged a combined 12 penalties/set restarts over their past 5 games – the most in the league), this week they decided to add dropping the ball to their repertoire, making a depressing 14 errors on their way to losing to the humble Titans. Surely this is the bottom, right? They can’t possibly lose to a Roger Tuivasa-Sheckless Warriors team… can they? Well… we actually think they can. If we ignore the team lists for a moment (and at this point, you probably should when you’re assessing Brisbane games) and instead look solely at the numbers, it’s hard to make a rational argument for backing Brisbane. In addition to their aforementioned disciplinary woes, their offense has been virtually non-existent since the break, with the side held to 2 or fewer line breaks in 4 of their past 5 matches. Sure, the Warriors are hardly an offensive powerhouse, but that’s the same number of games in which New Zealand have made 3 or more over the same period. On the season, the Warriors’ numbers are marginally worse than Brisbane’s but the season numbers fail to take into account the fact that Brisbane were the best team in the competition for the opening fortnight; if we only count the five weeks since the resumption, the numbers actually favour the Warriors, and by some margin. Though both sides are poor, the Warriors have the upper hand since Round 3 across LBVOA (-13.80% v -46.59%), RMVOA (3.36% v -4.78%) and TBVOA (-13.95% v -24.73%). And though they’re without their best player, it must be noted that Tuivasa-Sheck actually contributes surprisingly little to the Warriors’ offensive production, being the only fullback in the league with neither a line break nor an assist (and as a result, he has just a single try involvement). It makes sense then, that on the rare occasions that Tuivasa-Sheck has been missing over the past few years, his side has rolled along unaffected (he’s missed just three games since 2018, resulting in 2 wins and a 1-point loss to Melbourne). No, the key piece for New Zealand is actually Kodi Nikorima, whose 8 line break assists place him 4th in the NRL – and who was curiously shown the door last year by Anthony Seibold. With this is mind, we’re falling behind the Warriors to pull off the upset.
  • Don’t look now, but the Tigers have been playing some really good football over the past two weeks, and looking more and more like a Top 8-quality side. After shredding two bottom-4 defenses over that period, this week they’ll face a much sterner test in the form of the Panthers (who rank 2nd in the NRL for defense). For Penrith, their toughest test hasn’t been so much the teams they’ve faced, but rather the referees. Here’s a fun fact: since the resumption, the Panthers have conceded a combined 10 first half points in 5 weeks, building an average half-time winning margin of: 9.2. Then in the second half of matches, they seem to suddenly get worse, conceding 46 combined points, at an average of: 9.2. Why do you suppose that is? Maybe it’s because they’re unfit; maybe it’s because they’re not a “second half team”. Or, maybe it’s because they come out after half-time and get relentlessly hammered by the referees, losing the second half set-restart count by a combined 18-3(!). The message for the Tigers then is simple: try and hang around long enough, and eventually you’ll be gifted an avalanche of second half possession. Whether or not they have the tools to capitalise against an elite D – that’s the real question.
  • In case you were wondering, we would have picked the Knights this week, regardless of the status of Tom Trbojevic. Newcastle were hot garbage last week, yet still managed to post 5+ line breaks for the 4th week in a row. That sort of firepower is every bit as good as the Sea Eagles’, even if Tommy were playing. Meanwhile, the Knights’ defense has been consistently better (last weekend notwithstanding), and the go-forward battle is a no-contest, with Manly’s RMVOA of -1.31% dwarfed by Newcastle’s 7.88%.
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NRL Tips – Week 7, 2020

June 24, 2020, 5:34 pm By Joel Leave a Comment

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 32/48 (67%) (Last week: 7/8)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
  • Panthers
  • Storm
  • Roosters
  • Knights
  • Broncos
  • Eels
  • Sea Eagles
  • Tigers

Notes

  • One of the great mysteries of 2020 is the year-on-year improvement of the Panthers‘ defense. Through six rounds, the Panthers have held all but one of their opponents to 16 points or less, and they’ve achieved this despite having faced 4 of the top six offenses. They face the last of the top attacking teams this weekend (Penrith themselves are the sixth) when they meet South Sydney. Once they’re through that, the schedule really opens up for Penrith, with their defense only exposed to one more game against a team with an offense with a positive VOA (the return bout with Parramatta in Round 18). With Penrith built to grind field position and defend their way to victory, this makes for an extremely favourable run home, and a gold-plated path to the Top 4.
  • But first, they have to get through the Rabbitohs. South Sydney put New Zealand to the sword last week after Kodi Nikorima got himself sin binned, putting 2 tries past the Warriors (and effectively ending the game) while he was parked in the sheds. Prior to that effort though, their numbers had been steady, if unspectacular. The main concern for Souths will be the likelihood that their pack gets monstered by the gorillas from Sydney’s west. Through the first five weeks, South Sydney’s highest run metre total was 1392m; through the first six rounds, that number is also Penrith’s lowest. This disparity has led to Penrith featuring the 4th highest RMVOA in the competition, while South Sydney feature the 4th lowest. This suggests that Souths are likely to struggle for field position, especially if they turn in yet another fumble-fingered effort (they’ve made 14 or more errors in half their games so far; Penrith have yet to do it once). And of course, when they eventually do get down there, they still have to score – something that teams have found frustratingly difficult to do against the Pennies. If Souths produce numbers similar to last week, they do have the ability to trouble Penrith. However, we put a big part of those numbers down to a weak effort from New Zealand, and as such, expect Souths to regress accordingly.
  • If you’re a believer that teams who sack their coach always win the following week, then by all means tip the Warriors. But be aware that New Zealand have done absolutely nothing to warrant support here, and on form, may struggle to score a point against the league’s best defense. For what it’s worth, we’re more inclined to believe that the Storm never back up a loss with a bad effort – they haven’t lost two games back-to-back since Rounds 21 & 22 in 2018, and even that was only a 3-point defeat to Cronulla (who made the preliminary final that year). You’d have to go all the way back to 2015 to find consecutive losses of 6 or more (and even that was in an Origin period, where they rested half their spine). In short, we expect the Storm to turn up to play on Friday, against an opponent hopelessly out of their depth.
  • As much as we’d love to see the Dragons get the chocolates here, we simply can’t make any argument for how they might be able to compete. Sure, they’ve now won 2 games on the trot, but those wins came against two of the worst teams in the competition, and frankly, against the Gold Coast they weren’t even especially good. Though it was nice to see them finally keep an opponent to less than 3 tries, there’s virtually zero chance that that happens here, against a Roosters offense who’ve now made 6 or more line breaks in their past 5 games in a row. We’d only really recommend this game to sickos who enjoy watching once-great clubs get massacred.
  • Speaking of massacres, the real battle of the weekend may be between the Roosters and Knights to see who can run up the biggest score. Yes, the Roosters come armed with the most explosive weapons, but it’s the Knights who get to face a defense that has so far been, at best, hypothetical. We wrote last week about the ineptitude of the Cowboys D, who on the weekend added the Tigers (whose offense VOA is a pedestrian -1.33%) to the list of teams who’ve run up a score against them. Here, they’ll finally get to face an offensive heavyweight – the #2 offense, who’ve scored 20+ in 4 of their 6 games so far. The loss of Bradman Best for Newcastle is disappointing, but against a D that just got lit up for 9 line breaks by the Tigers, it’s unlikely to make a difference. Newcastle by a cricket score.
  • The Titans remain the worst team in the NRL. Next.
  • If you’d asked us a month ago, we’d have confidently backed the Raiders for the win here, but at this point, their right edge defense is so disgustingly bad that every coach in the competition knows how to beat them. Curtis Scott is only dependable if you’re depending on him to make the worst defensive decision imaginable in any given situation, while Nic Cotric somehow manages to miss a third of the tackles he attempts. Unsurprisingly then, that duo have combined for 12 line break causes between them (with typical right second rower Joseph Tapine adding another 4). Pairing this combination against the in-form Eels duo of Michael Jennings and Maika Sivo (who have a combined 12 try involvements and 8 line breaks) looks like a complete mismatch. Ricky Stuart needs to find a solution, and that solution sure ain’t Curtis Scott.
  • The Sea Eagles/Sharks clash is definitely the trickiest match of the round to pick, if only because of the long-term injury to Tom Trbojevic. To be clear, we don’t think Cronulla are very good – on the weekend, they limped home to a narrow win over a side whose primary aspiration is to not come last. Cronulla’s offense has so far barely fired a shot, being to held to 3 or fewer line breaks in all six matches they’ve played so far. Against the Sea Eagles – who possess the 5th best LBCVOA in the league – we’d be surprised if they score more than 2 tries. That being said, we have the same doubts about Manly. Without Trbojevic for the last half hour against Canberra, the Sea Eagles were completely impotent, making zero line breaks and scoring just a penalty goal, despite dominating possession 56-44 in the period. Granted, they’ll be better off with a full bench and a week’s preparation, but it remains difficult to see where their points will come from. As it stands, we’ve backed the Sea Eagles on the grounds that if both offenses struggle, we’d rather be on the team with an elite defense. And that team is Manly.
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NRL Tips – Week 6, 2020

June 18, 2020, 3:19 pm By Joel Leave a Comment

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 25/40 (63%) (Last week: 5/8)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
  • Knights
  • Rabbitohs
  • Panthers
  • Dragons
  • Tigers
  • Roosters
  • Raiders
  • Sharks

Notes

  • The Broncos gave a much better account of themselves last week, particularly defensively, conceding just  15 tackle breaks (their season best) and allowing over 500 fewer metres than their first two games since the resumption. That’s a positive sign for the unit, but is unlikely to be enough against Newcastle. Kotoni Staggs is a huge out for Brisbane, having made twice as many line breaks as any of his teammates (4) on his way to scoring 5 tries (no other Bronco has more than 1). Their improved D may help prevent a blow-out, but without Staggs, we doubt Brisbane have the points in them to keep up with the Knights‘ #2-ranked offense.
  • The Warriors were fabulous last weekend, somehow putting 7 tries on North Queensland, after managing just 4 in the opening 4 weeks combined (though admittedly, this is largely a reflection of just how ordinary the Cows’ defense is). Against the Rabbitohs though, they’ll face a much sterner test (Souths rank 8th in Defense VOA). Despite the Bunnies running up a bit of a score against the Gold Coast, we’re anticipating a low-scoring affair here. Though Souths’ 5 line breaks last weekend may look impressive on the surface, the shine fades once you notice that the Titans are conceding almost 7 per game – making the Rabbitohs effort a fair whack below average in actuality. We still expect Souths to win, but anticipate another decent showing by the Kiwis, in what’s likely to be a dour, low-scoring affair.
  • After a horror 6 minute stretch cost the Panthers last weekend (and cost us the opportunity to look like geniuses), we’re doubling down and backing the Pennies to get it done against the Storm. Putting aside the result, it’s hard not to be impressed by just how strong the Panthers have been. Though 2 soft line breaks jump off the highlight reel (we suspect Waqa Blake’s palm may still be lodged deep in the chest of Stephen Crichton), we should remember that the Panthers conceded just 1 other break in the entire match – a match in which they gave up a 54% possession share to a team averaging almost 5 line breaks per game. As a result, Penrith now stand as the only remaining team to have held every side they’ve faced to 3 or fewer breaks. Granted, they face the only defense better than theirs this weekend, but the gap in the two sides’ offensive production so far is arguably greater – and favours the Panthers. While Penrith have rolled along creating 4 or more line breaks in all but one match this season, the Storm have hit that mark just twice. The issue for Melbourne has been a lack of production from anyone other than Cameron Smith. While the Panthers’ halves rotation of Cleary, Luai and Burton have combined for 7 line break assists between them, their Melbourne counterparts (Munster, Hughes and Jacks) have combined for just 4. Granted, it’s comparatively easy to rack up assists when your job is simply to shovel the ball to Viliame Kikau, but hey – it works. Melbourne, on the other hand, are still struggling to hit their stride. Of course, we still believe Melbourne are good enough to win here – they’ve been too good for too long to be quickly written off. But if we’re making a call based on the two sides’ performances so far, the fact of the matter is that Penrith have been better. Now they just need to prove it.
  • The good news for the Dragons: their latest spine combination (Dufty; Norman; Clune; McInnes) seems to have been a hit, with the side producing their season-best TBVOA (27.18%), and their highest LBVOA since Round 1 (35.89%) against the Sharks. The bad news: their D showed no measurable signs of improvement, performing at the same consistently poor level that has seen them win just 1 of their opening 5 games. Fortunately, that should all be academic against the Titans – a defense so bad, they make St George look like Melbourne. Last weekend, the Gold Coast conceded 30+ points for the 3rd time so far, and they’ve now conceded at least 23 points in every game they’ve played. As a result, the Dragons look like a great bet to make it two-in-a-row, meaning Mary’s probably another week away from a three-year extension.
  • Oh my goodness – how bad is the Cowboys defense? We’ll tell you how bad – they’ve conceded the 4th most points in the NRL this season, despite having only faced the offenses rated 10th, 13th, 14th, 15th and 16th. All but one of those sides posted their highest try total of the season against North Queensland, at a combined average of 22.6 points per game. If the Cowboys are getting shredded by the worst offenses in the league, we can’t help but wonder how ugly it could get when they finally face a good team. Unfortunately, we won’t get to find out this week, as the stodgy Tigers offense gets their turn at boosting their offensive average. That being said, 22 should be more than enough points for Wests to get the chocolates, backed by a defense who’ve held every opponent to 4 or fewer line breaks. Better still, with defensive liability Benji Marshall dropped last week, that defensive improved even further to produce a LBCVOA of -47.30% – good enough for first in the league. Granted, it came at the cost of drying up their offense completely; but with the Cowboys on deck this week we wouldn’t worry too much about that.
  • The Eels got away with one against Penrith, but don’t be expecting that to be replicated here. The Roosters offense is operating at the highest level we’ve ever recorded, producing a staggering offense VOA of 73.02%. The Eels’ defense is reasonable, but relies on hoarding possession to hide its weaknesses. In their two games with 63%+ of possession, they’ve conceded just 2 line breaks per game. In their remaining three matches – where they’ve had between 48%-54% – that more than doubles to 4.3. Against a unit such as Sydney’s, who’ve racked up 6 or more in every game since Week 2, Parramatta would need north of 60% again, just to stand a chance.
  • It’s a real tragedy that the Sea Eagles will be without Marty Taupau this weekend, because we’re firmly of the view that they’ve otherwise got a great shot to pull off an upset. Manly’s offense is electric (#5 overall), and their match-up with a Raiders D that’s leaked 18 line breaks since the resumption looks absolutely delicious (for comparison’s sake, the eye-wateringly bad Gold Coast D has only conceded 17 over the same period). However, the loss of Taupau makes us hesitate to pull the trigger. The issue is that there’s no side in the competition less equipped to handle the loss of a major yardage contributor than Manly. The Sea Eagles have a dire lack of middle forward depth, meaning that Taniela Paseka will likely be required to significantly lift his workload (he currently averages just 30 minutes a game) to prevent their go-forward grinding to a halt for an extended period when the bench takes over. With Taupau missing for most of the game against Brisbane, his side’s adjusted run metres dropped over 100m below average. A similar performance here would invite the Raiders to camp down Manly’s end, effectively limiting the ability of strike players like Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans to impose themselves on the game, and waste what is otherwise a favourable match-up.
  • After being on the receiving end of a footballing clinic on Monday night, the Bulldogs must be relieved to see the bog-average Sharks appear on the schedule. At this point, both sides look like bottom-4 material, making this surprisingly hard to tip. That being said, we’re thinking that Canterbury may be just the side to provide a 2020 coming-out party for Andrew Fifita. Fifita looked slow and ineffective last week against St George-Illawarra, leading to internet trolls coining the term “Fatfita” (kids can be cruel). However, considering Fifita’s style – he’s a sideways-running, tackle-breaking, offload machine – Canterbury may be just the tonic to his ills. Here, he’ll a face an engine room loaded with as many as 4 forwards ranking outside the league’s top 150 players in tackle efficiency (a group headlined by interchange forward Dean Britt, who somehow manages to lead the entire league in missed tackles, while only playing 44 minutes a game). Against this motley crew of jersey-grabbers, Fifita has the perfect opportunity to excel, and hopefully create the second-phase play required for his misfiring halves to generate something.
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NRL Tips – Week 5, 2020

June 11, 2020, 3:03 pm By Joel Leave a Comment

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 20/32 (63%) (Last week: 5/8)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
  • Sea Eagles
  • Cowboys
  • Panthers
  • Rabbitohs
  • Storm
  • Raiders
  • Roosters
  • Sharks

Notes

  • The Sea Eagles didn’t lose last week due to that howler of a call by the touchie (though it certainly returned the refs to the back page with a bang). No, Manly’s problem was the same as it is every other week – a lack of field position, due to a dire shortage of quality forwards. Addin Fonua-Blake carried the load as usual, but the giant Tongan can only do so much. Taniela Paseka was handy in a 31-minute cameo, but Manly need to find more ways to work their way downfield. Marty Taupau is typically better than he showed against Parramatta, however the combination of under-sized edge forwards, poor starts to sets by the wingers, and the eternal momentum-killer Jake Trbojevic (who – for those of you following along at home – ranks 305th in the league for metres per carry) leave Manly perpetually starvedof field position. Which is a crying shame – when they actually get down the other end of the field, the Eagles may be the best attacking team in the league (and if not, they’re certainly in the conversation). Gifted offense or not though, they’ll continue to lose games like that while ever they’re forced to play the majority of them from their own half.
  • They’ll be pleased to see the Broncos on this week’s schedule, then. After shredding North Queensland and Souths over the opening fortnight, Brisbane’s pack have been dismal since the resumption, failing to exceed 1050m in either of their past two games (for context, every other team in the comp has exceeded that mark, in both outings). If you’re wondering where those metres have gone, the answer lies in their post-contact metres – after averaging 582 PCM in their first two games, that number’s collapsed by over 200m, falling to 362m. The biggest disappointment for us has been Thomas Flegler, who’s seen his PCM implode from 75m per game to just 19; but the whole pack’s been terrible. Indeed, after leading the entire team – forwards included – in PCM last week, Corey Oates has been shifted into the pack to provide some go-forward. When you’re forced to lean on a re-purposed winger to provide grunt to your engine room, the signs are not good. Not good at all.
  • We want to give a shout-out to the Warriors ahead of their clash with the Cowboys this week – through four weeks, New Zealand sit alongside Melbourne and Penrith as the only teams to have conceded 3 or fewer line breaks in every game so far. Of course, they still lose a lot because their offense is on the verge of being historically bad (they’ve been held to nil in half their matches so far); but their D has actually been decent. If defense is a reflection of attitude, we can safely say that the Warriors aren’t losing due to a lack of effort, but rather through a lack of ability. That defense should keep them competitive though, and when they run into ordinary defenses – like North Queensland – they’ll be a chance of falling over the line a few times, and providing a defendable total. We can’t tip them, but we won’t write them off, either.
  • The Battle of the West on Friday night looks like an absolute belter, with two of the three remaining undefeated sides going head-to-head. Popular opinion says the Eels are the team to beat in 2020, but we’re not buying in (yet), and actually fancy the Panthers as exactly the kind of match-up they could struggle with. The tricky aspect for Parramatta is the way they’ve been winning football games. Their offense isn’t especially flash; rather, they depend on weight of possession and field position to do any damage. Similarly, there are serious question marks over their D, that has so far been sheltered by whopping possession advantages. They kept the league’s worst offense to 2 line breaks in Week 1; in Weeks 2 & 3, they had 65% and 63% of the possession, respectively. Week 4 was the first game Parramatta have played against a competent opponent with an even possession share – and they got lit up for 7 line breaks. Why is this important? Because in Penrith they’ll be facing a team ranked 3rd in LBVOA, and who’ve so far won the possession battle in every game so far. Parra’s pack have been superb, and the Eels have won all their matches as a result. But in Penrith, they find an opponent with a better pack, a surprisingly stout defense, and a similar ability to retain possession. Expect a dour, physical arm wrestle.
  • Phil Gould made the point on 100% Footy on Monday night that he believes the Rabbitohs are about to go on a tear. After looking into their form line… we agree. It’s not immediately obvious because of all the losing they’ve been doing, but Souths’ numbers have been progressively improving each week. While their season numbers are still poor, the trend is positive; last week, for example, they turned in a RMVOA of -1.15% – bad, but a huge improvement from their season average of -7.27% (2nd worst in the league). Similarly, their TBVOA of 60.35% last week would be good enough to place them 1st for the season. Defensively, they turned in a LBCVOA of -27.37% last week – the first time this season they’ve been above average. In short, they do seem to be getting better – which could be terrible news for the Titans.
  • We’re not getting carried away with the Knights‘ offense (Canberra’s edge D was absolutely woeful last weekend), but we do need to acknowledge how dominant Newcastle’s middles were last weekend. Canberra’s pack is generally considered to be a major strength of theirs, so to see every member of the Knights’ pack not named Aidan Guerra go for 10m per carry last week was eye-opening. The big knock on Newcastle over the past two years has been that the ineptitude of their forwards consistently denied their brilliant attacking weapons the field position required to excel (for a 2020 example see: Sea Eagles, Manly). Though it’s only Week 4, that doesn’t appear to be a problem any more – and if it isn’t, they might just be the real deal. What better test is there than facing the Storm? We’re tipping Melbourne, largely due to their elite run defense (they once again rank 1st in the league for RMCVOA), but please don’t mistakenly consider this a gimme – it may yet turn out to be a Grand Final preview.
  • As far as inexplicably bad coaching decisions go, it’s hard to go past Michael Maguire’s decision to drop Benji Marshall from the Tigers‘ team this weekend. Don’t get us wrong, we understand it – when you get licked by the worst team in the comp, something has to give, and Benji has been a defensive liability this year, conceding 7 line breaks so far (the 2nd most in the league, only behind the Titans’ Phillip Sami [how a bloke named at fullback each week has conceded 8 line breaks while barely featuring in the line at all is a true mystery, but we digress]). The issue, though, is that by dropping Benji, Maguire is dropping the only Tigers player who’s done anything on offense. Marshall personally has 4 line break assists – the rest of the team combined have managed just 5. Though removing Marshall theoretically strengthens their D, at what cost? The timing is particularly curious, with Wests running into Canberra this week – a team who haven’t scored fewer than 20 points in a game against the Tigers since 2015. The Tigers will need all the points they’ve got in them against Canberra, and will be forced to pin their hopes on the curious attacking stylings of Luke Brooks. Yuck.
  • It’s not all good news for the Raiders though. We warned you last weekend that Canberra’s stats against Melbourne were a lot worse than the scoreboard suggested, and they backed it up with another defensive clunker against Newcastle. That game was the 2nd week in a row that the Raiders have conceded 7 or more line breaks – not at all the defensive standard you’d expect from a premiership heavyweight. The problem for Canberra is easy to identify – their right edge defense is utterly hopeless. Nic Cotric, Joseph Tapine and Curtis Scott have now conceded 5, 4 and 3 line break respectively on the season – bad enough to place them 6th, 12th and 24th worst in the league (for comparison, the opposite edge – Simonsson, Whitehead and Croker, have conceded 3, 1 and 1). We don’t have the answer, but with some high octane attacking units on the horizon (Canberra play Manly and Sydney within the coming month) they need to tighten this up in a hurry, or risk dropping out of the Top 4.
  • Though the return of Matt Moylan to the starting side brought a win for the Sharks, their offense wasn’t noticeably better – rather, they just managed to be the slightly less shit team in a really, really ordinary game of footy. This week, Chad Townsend returns to the spine, and Andrew Fifita makes his season debut in the pack. If this week’s edition of the Sharks can’t generate some decent offense against the comatose Dragons, we might just have to stick a fork in them. We’re backing them again, but also growing increasingly suspicious that perhaps Cronulla just aren’t very good.
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