The Obstruction Rule

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 70/116 (60%) (Last week: 4/8)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Storm
• Roosters
• Knights
• Sharks

Notes

• If you’re ever going to choose to play the Storm, the State of Origin period is surely it – Melbourne have lost a third of their squad to representative duties, including Cameron Munster, Josh Addo-Carr, Will Chambers, Dale Finucane, Felise Kaufusi and Christian Welch. So why are we still backing them? Because the Dragons are missing almost as many troops, and arguably more critical ones. Though it’s never great to have your side decimated, the Storm have only lost a single spine player (Munster), and have quality depth to replace many of the others. Melbourne have called in familiar names like Jahrome Hughes, Solomone Kata and Albert Vete to replace their absent stars; the Dragons are left recalling flops like Jai Field. While Melbourne will still have Cameron Smith and Brodie Croft to steer the side around, the Dragons have lost both starting halves (Corey Norman and Ben Hunt), and weren’t traveling especially well even with them. Add in a forward pack without Paul Vaughan, Tyson Frizell and Tariq Sims, and the Dragons may even get belted by the Baby Storm.
• While we don’t put a lot of stock into historical records, there aren’t many long-term trends as dominant as the Roosters‘ ownership of the Tigers, with Sydney having won 16 of the sides’ past 18 meetings, dating all the way back to 2010. The Tigers would likely be feeling somewhat optimistic about their chances here against an Origin-affected Roosters side, but we’re not actually convinced that the Roosters are any worse. Sure, they’ve lost James Tedesco and Boyd Cordner to Origin duties, but those losses are almost completely offset by the return of star five-eighth Luke Keary, as well as key forward Jared Waerea-Hargreaves. In Sydney’s 4 outings without Keary (including the Knights game, in which Keary was lost after 8 minutes) they’ve scored more than 2 tries just once (against wooden spoon specials, the Bulldogs). Prior to losing Keary, they’d only failed to exceed 2 tries in a game once in their first 10 matches. In short, there may not be a more critical player to the Roosters’ offensive fortunes than Keary – and that includes Tedesco.
• If we were to pick the most likely upset of the round, it would have been the Ponga-less Knights against the Warriors at Newcastle. The Warriors are completely unaffected by Origin, while the Knights were intially without Daniel Saifiti and Tim Glasby, in addition to the injured Ponga. Though big losses, the Knights still weren’t without hope. For a start, the days of the Knights’ pack being marshmallows are a thing of the past – even without studs like Klemmer, guys like James Gavet have stood up impressively. Meanwhile, the forward leader in metres per carry isn’t one of their rep stars – it’s Herman Ese’ese (9.8). Further, although the Knights forward pack is badly affected, their backline remains one of the best in the competition, with strike weapons like Jesse Ramien (2nd in the league in tackle breaks) and Shaun Kenny-Dowall (13th) attacking the Warriors’ suspect edge defenders out wide. Unfortunately, the additional losses of Mitchell Pearce and David Klemmer are likely to starve the Knights of quality field position, and tip the scales towards New Zealand. Gavet and Ese’ese have been superb for Newcastle in short bursts, but if they can’t replicate that form over big minutes here, then the Knights will be forced to turn to the dubious ‘talents’ of guys like Josh King and Aidan Guerra. Against a Warriors side ranked 5th in the league for RMVOA and 4th for RMCVOA, there’s a serious possibility that Newcastle will get monstered once their bench comes on. In that case, they’d typically turn to the kicking game of Pearce to get them out of trouble, but he’s gone too. Unfortunately, the absentee list just looks like a little too much to overcome for Newcastle (though on the bright side, the sheer fact that they’re missing so many troops to Origin duty is a sign of just how far they’ve come).
• Finally, we come to the Sharks game. Look. Cronulla were awful on the weekend. Really, horribly, awful. However, the Sharks have a bit of form insofar as turning in an absolute stinker every month or so, and they’ve so far backed those games up with blinders. After a nightmare outing against the Sea Eagles in Round 10, they came out the following week and pumped the Dragons 22-9. And after failing to get off the bus in Brisbane in Round 7, they shocked the rugby league world a week later, beating the table-topping Storm. The point here is that a Grade-A bed-wetting against the Bulldogs doesn’t automatically mean that they’ll be bad again here – and especially not against a Broncos side who look like they’re playing to get their head coach fired. Sure, the Sharks were bad last week, but the Broncos have been dreadful for a month (and weren’t particularly good in March and April, either). Now, they’ve lost four players to Origin duty (which may go a long way to explaining why the Maroons got flogged in Game 2), in addition to losing Anthony Milford to a knee injury. In rugby league, anything can happen, but if we have to guess, we think the Broncos are going to get royally flogged.

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2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 61/100 (61%) (Last week: 5/8)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Sharks
• Warriors
• Tigers
• Storm
• Rabbitohs
• Broncos
• Sea Eagles
• Roosters

Notes

• Thursday night sees the next installment of one of the game’s most enthralling modern rivalries when the Raiders host Cronulla. The Raiders come in as slight favourites at time of writing, and we have to say – we’re not entirely sure why. As much as we love the Raiders’ effort and playing style, they’re still missing their best player (Josh Hodgson), and really weren’t playing that well to start with. In fact, we’d argue that statistically the 2019 Raiders are worse than the 2018 model that missed the finals, but are enjoying an inflated ladder position courtesy of a soft draw through the first half of the season. Yes, they’re doing a much better job of finishing matches when they’re in position to win, but for the most part, those wins have all been coming against low-end opposition. Indeed, the Raiders haven’t beaten a current Top 8 side since they beat the Eels back in Round 5. Since then, they’ve accumulated losses against contenders Sydney, Souths and Manly, as well as dropping one to the Cowboys.
• To be fair, the same could be said of the Sharks, whose lone Top 8 win came against the Storm a month ago, however they seem to be just hitting their straps. The return of Matt Moylan has coincided with the Sharks offense running up 64 points in 2 weeks, and the addition of Wade Graham and potentially Shaun Johnson only makes them look more dangerous. The only rationale we could see for favouring Canberra here would be the home ground advantage, and even then, we’d suggest you check the numbers again. The Raiders have lost their last 2 in a row at GIO, while the Sharks have won their past 6 straight there, dating back to 2012. We’re not saying the Raiders are without a hope here, but they’re going to have to play a lot better than they have so far.
• The story of the Warriors is similar to that of the Raiders, only with a brutally difficult draw. Against bottom half teams, the Warriors have performed well enough, winning 4 of 7 matches. Against Top 8 sides though they’ve got absolutely nothing, losing all 5 matches they’ve played. In general, we don’t actually think that they’ve been that bad – they’re just astonishingly inconsistent. Here’s a fun fact: 62% of the Warriors’ line breaks have come from just 5 games; in the other 7 matches, they’ve produced just 38%. Unsurprisingly then, they’re offensive output’s completely polarised – they have 5 matches in which they’ve scored 24 or more points, and another 6 in which they’ve been held to 12 or less. For a club with a reputation for Jekyll and Hyde performances, 2019 may be the worst they’ve ever been. As a result, picking Warriors games has devolved into a guessing game about which Warriors side will turn up on any given weekend. Fortunately, the above does suggest at least some sort of trend – their “up” weeks typically come against ‘bad’ teams – and this week, the Gold Coast are on the menu.
• To be fair to the Titans though, we should at least note that they appear to showing signs of improvement. On either side of their total flop against North Queensland a fortnight ago, they’ve put together impressive wins against the Sea Eagles and Broncos. We still can’t pick them until they demonstrate some sort of ability on defense – they’ve now conceded 4 or more line breaks for 6 straight weeks – but they’re certainly good enough that if the Warriors don’t show up, the Titans could win.
• As an aside, it’s good to see young Patrick Herbert return to the centres for the Warriors this week. With Solomone Kata unplayable due to his Bryce Cartwright-level defense (he’s conceded 7 tries and 8 line breaks from just 6 starts), and alternative Gerard Beale a pot-plant on offense (he has 0 line breaks, 1 try involvement and 3 tackle breaks from 5 matches), Herbert is easily the most complete centre in the club (Peta Hiku included), and adds a goal-kicking option to boot. You may not be familiar with Herbert yet, but just make a mental note that the Warriors are a better team with him in it.
• The Cowboys/Tigers game looks like the perfect opportunity to catch up on your laundry, with two bog average teams offering very little to get excited about. We’ll readily concede that the Cowboys’ defense has improved considerably of late, however that’s also the side of the ball on which the Tigers are typically decent too (Wests rank 9th in Defense VOA vs the Cowboys’ last), while you’re more likely to sight a Sasquatch than North Queensland’s “offense”. Unbelievably, the Cowboys have been held to 3 tries or less in all but 2 of their matches this year – yes, that’s right; all but TWO. Now, the Tigers are no high-octane offense themselves (indeed, they just turned in a duck-egg against the Raiders), but they do at least have their moments, having run up scores of 22+ on 5 separate occasions this year. Whether or not this turns out to be one of those days, we don’t really have the foggiest, but we’ll note that the Tigers have scored 20+ in 3 of their past 4 games against North Queensland – all wins, and all in an era when the Tigers were otherwise shit. We’re not at all confident, but you’d have to think they can put a few past this husk of a Cowboys side – and a few is typically enough to win against North Queensland.
• We love the Knights. We do. And we’ve sure enjoyed their impressive winning run. However, there’s absolutely no way we can tip them here, and in fact, we suspect that this match may reveal just how far away they actually are from being premiership contenders. As good as they’ve been (and they’ve been excellent), the first 4 of those wins came against competition lightweights (the Eels, who’ve won just 2 games since, the Warriors, the Bulldogs and the Dragons). Then, they beat a Roosters side without Cooper Cronk and Luke Keary (who was knocked out minutes into the match), and a similarly under-strength Rabbitohs side. In short, the Knights’ only wins against top sides came against almost unrecognisable versions of those opponents. They’ve been good, yes; but the Storm are a whole different beast, and the Knights’ offense – who’ve scored 20+ points for 6 weeks in a row – are unlikely to find the Storm’s defense anywhere near as accommodating (they’ve conceded 20+ just twice all season). We wouldn’t say it’s hopeless for the Knights, and at the rate they’re improving, they’ll be even better when these sides meet again in the finals (and we’re confident that they will). But at this point, an admirable defeat would be a perfectly good result for Newcastle, and a win would simply be a bonus.
• As with last week’s game against the Roosters, we feel obligated to tip against the Panthers, if only because of the reputation of their opponents. And, like last week, we suspect we’ll be wrong. After losing six straight matches (in which they conceded 22 or more points in every game), the Panthers are in the middle of the unlikeliest winning streak this year, winning 3 on the bounce against current Top 8 sides (albeit sides missing a host of top players), all while conceding 12 points or less per game. The Panthers’ improvement could be attributed to a number of factors, with their tight defense and the mid-season resurgences of Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Josh Mansour certainly among them. However, the biggest boost for Penrith has arguably been the form of Liam Martin. Martin may be just 7 games into his NRL career, but his form against Manly earned him the starting lock gig against the Roosters, and he took it with both hands, running at 9 metres a clip while playing 80 minutes in the middle of the field. With Martin providing that sort of production (for context, the game’s best big-minute middle forward, Jake Trbojevic, is going for 8.4 metres/carry in 2019), the Panthers were able to rotate their remaining forwards more heavily, with James Fisher-Harris playing multiple stints. This rotation, combined with another massive outing by the Panthers back three (who all ran for over 180m – more than any Roosters player) combined to give the Panthers a whopping 325m yardage advantage. Now, we can hear you saying “but the Roosters’ pack were missing Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Angus Crichton, of course they tore them up!”. But that’s where we point out that the Rabbitohs will be without Sam and Tom Burgess, and are still missing Adam Reynolds on top of that. Look, the Rabbitohs have enough runs on the board to deserve the benefit of the doubt. But we just can’t shake this nagging feeling that the Panthers are about to do us all in once again.
• We actually thought the Broncos had turned the corner prior to last week’s clunker against the Titans. They’d won 3 on the trot, and most impressively, they’d conceded just 22 points combined across those three games, which included three of the league’s better offenses (the Sea Eagles, Roosters and Warriors). So what went wrong? The Broncos’ left edge, basically. The Titans tormented the Broncos down that flank, in addition to a slick solo effort by Tyrone Roberts straight past the supposedly-good Matt Lodge. Fortunately, Corey Oates will come straight back onto that wing, and an injury to Alex Glenn will force a change in the second-row (Matt Gillett comes straight in, but it may be David Fifita who switches to the left) however they still need to find a way to hide Anthony Milford, who leads the league in line breaks conceded (14).
• Regardless, the Broncos’ D has still been no worse than that of the Eels, who’ve allowed 14 line breaks and missed 70 tackles in their past 2 combined matches. The Broncos’ defense has been flawed, but the Eels’ has been downright catastrophic, getting gashed with alarming frequency since their 54-point hiding from the Storm in Round 9. We still think they’re a decent showing here at home, if only because their offense has shown more upside than anything Brisbane’s produced in 2019, but even that has deserted them of late, with the side’s LBVOA collapsing from 35.95% pre-Storm (1st in the league), to -11.32% post-Storm (10th). The only reason we can think of for installing Parramatta as favourites here is the BankWest Stadium factor, and frankly, that may just be a myth. Let’s look at it: what have they actually done there? Thumped a couple of patsies in the Tigers (who hasn’t?) and Dragons (who were in a 5-game losing slump at the time), lost to Penrith (never a good sign), and beaten a Rabbitohs side who couldn’t even name a full 21-man squad. BankWest may be beneficial for the Eels, but the evidence isn’t as overwhelming as the media makes out. It’s a coin flip, and since we thought Brisbane were back a week ago, we’ll give the Broncos the benefit of the doubt that last week was just an aberration.

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2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 56/92 (61%) (Last week: 2/4)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Knights
• Tigers
• Storm
• Sharks
• Sea Eagles
• Broncos
• Roosters
• Dragons

Notes

• The opening match of the round has been left almost impossible to tip, in the wake of a swathe of injuries to key players. The Knights have already ruled out superstar Kalyn Ponga for this match, and key forward David Klemmer will reportedly be joining him due to a broken wrist. Ordinarily, the loss of Ponga would have us drawing a line through the Novocastrians on the spot, however the Rabbitohs have major issues of their own. Cody Walker won’t back up after Wednesday night, and news that halfback Adam Reynolds has a fractured back (along with the continued absence of Alex Johnston) leaves the Bunnies missing three quarters of their regular spine (and the only regular, Damien Cook, will be playing just 2 days after turning in 80 minutes in the middle of the park for New South Wales). So, who’s affected the worst? It’s difficult to say. For what it’s worth, the loss of Walker leaves an enormous volume of production to be replaced by the Rabbitohs. He ranks 1st in the league for try involvements, and 2nd in the league for line break assists (behind Mitchell Pearce – who will be playing on Friday night, just for the other team). Reynolds’ output is significantly less, however his 5 and 9 try and line break assists are comparable to the 6 and 7 of Ponga. Finally, while we don’t know for sure how badly the Knights will be impacted by Ponga’s and possible Klemmer’s absences, we do know how the Rabbitohs go without Walker – we saw it last weekend in a directionless effort against the Eels, and with Reynolds joining him on the sidelines, we rate the Knights as smokies for an upset – Ponga or not.
• The second Friday night game holds a similar amount of mystery, with the Raiders getting a crack at their favourite whipping boys, the Tigers. Prior to their surprise loss to the Tigers in August last year, the Raiders had built an impressive record up, posting 4 consecutive scores of 46 or more against Wests. However, the Tigers are getting Canberra at the best possible time, with Hodgson and Joey Leilua still unavailable, and Nic Cotric under an injury cloud from State of Origin. The Raiders were bog average in limping home last weekend against the Bulldogs without their stars, but they weren’t traveling particularly well even before that. Last weekend was the Raiders’ 3rd match in a row with 3 line breaks or less, and they’ve now scored just 6 tries in their past 3 games combined (a period in which they got to play they league’s worst defense, the Cowboys). To be clear, we’re not at all confident in the Tigers, either – outside of torching the Panthers three weeks ago, they’ve been absolutely forgettable themselves, having scored more than 3 tries in a game just 3 times all season. But we have to pick somebody, and if nothing else, there’s got to be something to be said for continuity.
• Though Paul Green may be criticised for his excruciatingly boring gameplans, he pretty much wrote the book on getting maximal results from unimaginably sub-standard football teams two years ago, when he guided a shockingly bad Cowboys unit to the Grand Final (where they promptly got the 28-point hiding they deserved). Now, he may be in the process of doing it again, with the Cowboys finding themselves out of the Top 8 only on for-and-against following an inspired (yet nonetheless painfully boring) 6-4 win over the Titans. The recipe is simple: they hide their defensive frailties by dominating field position and possession. That’s achieved predominantly through discipline – the Cowboys rank 2nd in the league for fewest penalties conceded, and the extra sets they get are then converted into high possession shares (they’ve won the possession battle in 8 of 12 matches this year, and never had less than 47%), which in turn leads to big metres, despite their forwards lacking the dominance of a couple of years ago (they’ve made 1400m or more in all but 4 games, despite ranking 2nd last in RMVOA). If they could actually play a bit, these sorts of numbers would equate to some big scores, however they possess just one genuine playmaker in Michael Morgan, and even he ranks just 8th among NRL halves for line break assists. As a result, they’re yet to win any game in which their opponent has scored 18 or more points. We expect that to be an issue against a Sea Eagles team who’ve hit that mark in 7 of 12 matches, and will be boosted by the expected return of Tom Trbojevic.
• We’re not about to tip the Panthers (doing so would probably crash the site, due to the volume of readers hitting the ‘unsubscribe’ button all at once), but don’t be surprised if this match turns out to be a lot more competitive than most expect. The Roosters come in without star five-eighth Luke Keary, prop Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, and Origin-related absences for Boyd Cordner and Latrell Mitchell. Penrith have been unimpressive even in recent back-to-back wins, but the Roosters have been arguably worse, losing 2 straight matches, while scoring just 22 combined points across those outings. To be honest, considering the Roosters curiously poor recent form and added unavailables (they’re literally missing their entire left edge), we’re pretty much just picking them on reputation here. We’re expecting a tight, even contest – just the sort that Penrith seem to find ways to lose.
• Finally, we could certainly understand the temptation to pick the Bulldogs this week – the Dragons are mired in a 5-week losing stretch in which they’ve lost every game by 8 or more points – but we’re recommending against it. Firstly, the Dragons’ losses have been largely defense-related, with the team conceding 20 or more points and 4 or more line breaks in all of those losses. Assuming that Ben Hunt backs up from Origin, the worst handicap for their defense will be fixed – the return of Corey Norman would bump Jai Field out of the team altogether, so he surely can’t do any more damage (Field ranks 6th in the team for tries conceded, despite having played just 3 – yes, three – matches). Secondly, they’re playing the Bulldogs – the team who could manage just 2 tries against a Canberra park football side last week. No matter how badly your defense might be going, there’s generally very little to fear about the Bulldogs’ offense. Finally, the return of Norman should also give the Dragons’ offense a little more punch. The Dragons haven’t scored more than 3 tries in a game for 6 weeks, with Norman still ranking 1st in the team for try assists (9), despite having missed 3 matches. His return should hopefully begin the slow climb back to relevance, and besides – against the Bulldogs, three tries is typically plenty.

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2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 54/88 (61%) (Last week: 2/8)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Panthers
• Eels
• Bulldogs
• Titans

Notes

• Consider the following:

1. Tom Trbojevic
2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
3. Dean Whare
4. Waqa Blake
5. Brad Parker
6. Daly Cherry-Evans
7. Nathan Cleary
8. Toafoafoa Sipley
9. Wayde Egan
10. Jake Trbojevic
11. Jed Cartwright
12. Moses Suli
13. Tyrone May

The above is a complete starting 13 comprised of Panthers and Sea Eagles players who are unavailable this week due to injury and Origin – and frankly, that team would likely trounce either of the sorry lots that fans will be subjected to on Thursday evening. Given the sheer depth of absences, selecting a winner here is near impossible. We’d sworn off picking Penrith without their starting centres weeks ago, and even allowing for the absence of Manly’s key playmakers, we expect they should find plenty of holes on the Panthers’ edges. However, is Manly’s D any better? The Sea Eagles enter this match having conceded 4 or more line breaks in their past 3 straight matches, and last week allowed the Titans to post season-highs for tries scored (7), line breaks (6) and run metres (1637). If Manly are to win, they’ll need to beat Penrith in the outside backs, whereas the Panthers will be looking to steamroll the under-strength Manly pack straight through the middle. And in a game that may struggle for rhythm, the Panthers’ gameplan should be easier to execute.

• The Eels were absolutely woeful in losing to the Panthers last week, making 16 errors in an insipid effort at home. Unsurprisingly, Brad Arthur has wielded the axe as a result, though somehow talentless five-eighth Will Smith has survived, despite his two starts coinciding with embarrassing losses to stragglers the Cowboys and Panthers. We understand that Parramatta are struggling without boom five-eighth Dylan Brown, but surely there’s someone out there who can contribute more than Smith’s 0 line breaks, 0 line break assists, 0 tries, 1 try assist and 1 tackle break in 3 appearances. Surely.
• That being said, we still feel obliged to tip Parramatta here, purely because of the depth of unavailables for the Rabbitohs. You need only look at Parramatta’s struggles with Smith to see how hard it can be to find quality depth options for your spine, and Souths have to find replacements for not only star five-eighth Cody Walker, but also hooker Damien Cook. It says a lot about how the Eels are traveling that we still give the Bunnies a huge chance despite never having even seen debutantes Connor Tracey and Billy Brittain play, but ultimately, it seems the safer bet is to roll with Parramatta.
• The exact same logic can be applied to the following game too, with the hapless Bulldogs running into the worst Raiders team we’ve seen in years (at least on paper). No matter how little you may think of the Bulldogs (and we’re not as down on them as many), you can generally count on them to turn in a serviceable level of defense, with the side having conceded 3 tries or less in 6 of their 11 matches this year. Their offense is almost non-existent, but oddly, the Raiders’ hasn’t been much better this season (11th v 12th), and Canberra now are forced to play without all their best attacking options. Josh Hodgson? Out. Jack Wighton? Out. Joey Leilua, Jordan Rapana and Nick Cotric? Out, out, out. The Raiders’ offense was a shadow of its former self even when their studs were available. Now with Origin adding to their injury woes, we just can’t see that improving against a typically sound defensive unit.
• Finally, we get to the Titans, who are returning home after a confidence-building away win over Manly. We’re not going to get carried away with that victory – Manly were particularly awful – however, we fancy the Titans are better than the Cowboys anyway. The issue with the Titans is more consistency than talent, with the side having scored 4 or more tries in 4 different games this year, yet they’ve also been held to 2 or less just as often (the bog average Cowboys, meanwhile, have scored 4 or more just once since Round 1). The Cowboys were bailed out the last time they met by a couple of refereeing howlers in their favour, and now they have to try and do it on a back-to-back away trip, without Michael Morgan and Josh McGuire? Nah, we just don’t see it.

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