The latest NRL news, intelligent rugby league analysis, and innovative NRL statistics
Manly’s forward depth is set to be even further tested, with forward Darcy Lussick released to join the Toronto Wolfpack, effective immediately.
The Sea Eagles announced Lussick’s departure this afternoon.
The exit of Lussick will put even more pressure on the Sea Eagles’ forward depth, with back-rowers Curtis Sironen and Kelepi Tanginoa both already out with ACL injuries.
Lussick played 117 first grade matches for the Sea Eagles and Eels.
Suncorp Stadium is set to lose its annual double-header from next season, but it’s not all bad news – it’s being replaced with an octuple-header, in a concept borrowed from the Super League’s Magic Weekend.
According to Fox Sports (originally by Channel 7), the NRL is set to schedule an entire round of NRL action at Suncorp Stadium over four days in May next year.
The Magic Weekend concept has existed in the Super League for over a decade, since debuting with an entire round of Super League at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff back in 2007.
By Joel 2 Comments
Head-to-Head Tipping: 23/40 (58%)
Line Betting: 8/17 (47%)
Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%
Line Betting: 55%
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A quick note on the early round stats: The nature of our VOA-based NRL statistics is that they naturally require a league average as a starting point, thus the smaller the sample size, the less accurate these stats will be. However, to satisfy our readers, we’ll publish the stats and associated projections from Round 1 (despite a persistent letter-writing campaign, I’m yet to find any major footy tipping outlets who are willing to start their competitions from Round 10…). In order to do this, we’re forced to use the 2017 database as the foundation for the stats, and as the weeks pass these will be combined with the new season’s numbers and weighted progressively less each week until the numbers used are entirely from 2018. We can’t guarantee that this method is necessarily going to be effective (although we tried it last year and it was surprisingly successful, the level of player turnover this off-season is unprecedented, and likely to greatly affect the outcomes), but it’s the only way we can think of to present the data in the early rounds without it being totally skewed by an insufficient sample size. In short, for at least the first month it is best to consider our stats as purely for entertainment purposes. They may prove accurate (we’ll review them later in the season), but the method remains firmly in the testing phase.
Offense VOA: Roosters 10.47% (6th), Rabbitohs 32.38% (1st)
Defense VOA: Roosters -17.48% (5th), Rabbitohs -6.87% (7th)
The Rabbitohs did us proud last week, muscling up for a strong performance in narrowly going down to the Dragons. Unfortunately for them though, it doesn’t get any easier, with a date with the dangerous Roosters next on the menu.
The Bunnies are something of an enigma so far in 2018, putting together some unbelievable attacking numbers in what have generally been just short spurts of good footy. Once again last week, they meandered through much of the game, never looking so much as vaguely threatening, until a late burst came very close to snatching the unlikeliest of victories (we hope that Ben Hunt gave Cody Walker a big hug, after the latter spectacularly dropped the match; not once, but twice). On one hand, you can’t help but admire the ability of the Rabbitohs when they’re in full flight – they actually rank 1st in LBVOA, RMVOA, and TBVOA (though those numbers are all somewhat inflated by their Round 3 soul-crushing of the Sea Eagles). They’ve only been held to under 4 line breaks in a match once this year (the only other teams that can say that are Canterbury and New Zealand), and their forwards are playing like it’s 2014, running for at least 1350m in every game this season (the only team to match that is again, the Warriors). Put it altogether, and they should be killing it, right?
Well, you’d think so, except that for great slabs of matches they seem to slip back into “2017 Rabbitohs”, and just trudge forward mindlessly towards a fifth tackle kick, with very little creativity. Though they looked great in the last 10 minutes last week, in the 70 minutes before that, they scored just 2 points. They came home strong against the Bulldogs, but at the half, they were actually losing 14-6. Against the Panthers, the problem was the opposite – leading 14-0 at the break, then going AWOL for the second 40. In a way, they’re like a poor man’s Penrith – playing good for about half an hour a game, only without the wins to show for it.
And the Roosters aren’t a team against whom you can afford to play for less than 80 minutes. Despite struggling for consistency themselves, the Roosters have still managed to score 28 or more on 3 occasions this year – a mark the Rabbitohs have hit just once. While we actually do believe that the Rabbitohs have the attacking strikepower to keep pace with the Roosters if they wanted to, it’s hard to confidently tip that they will when they’ve only played one complete game to their potential this year (we’re referring, of course, to the Manly game).
We really like how the Bunnies are building, but the Roosters are too good a side to beat without turning up for the full 80 minutes.
Our tip: Roosters
The future of Raiders forward Josh Papalii is increasingly looking like it may lay elsewhere, despite the Raiders’ wrecking ball being recalled to first grade this week.
The issue for the Raiders appears to be his asking price, with Dean Ritchie reporting on Triple M that “he wants 800 (thousand dollars per season)”.
You’d have to assume that that would be far too rich for a player who wasn’t even considered to be in the club’s best 17 a week ago, but that doesn’t mean Papalii won’t have options.
Ritchie names “Souths, Melbourne, Newcastle and Gold Coast” all as potential homes for Papalii, who remains one of the game’s most damaging forwards at his best.
We’d rather see him remain a one-club player, and force the Raiders to re-sign him with his performances on the field, but whether or not the Raiders would even be interested at that price remains to be seen.
Papalii has played 153 first grade games for the Raiders, 9 Origins for Queensland, 9 Tests for Australia, and 4 for Samoa.
Apparently Tim Glasby isn’t the only Storm forward attracting interest, with rumours emerging that the Eels are hoping to make a play for Melbourne giant Nelson Asofa-Solomona.
According to Dean Ritchie on Triple M, the Eels are hoping to lure Asofa-Solomona to Parramatta from 2019, with Ritchie saying “don’t be surprised if they have a bit of a nibble at the big fella”.
Curious imagery aside, the report is at least somewhat surprising, given that Asofa-Solomona is under contract through the end of next year, on a deal he signed barely 9 months ago.
That said, if the Storm ultimately give up on Brodie Croft (who’s been dropped after just five matches) and Ryley Jacks (who is himself off contract) doesn’t work out either, the Storm may need to hit the free agent market for a halfback, in which case they’d need to clear space from somewhere.
It remains to be seen if the Storm would even contemplate releasing Asofa-Solomona (particularly if Glasby moves on), but it might be a story worth monitoring.
Asofa-Solomona has played 58 first grade games for the Storm, and 4 Tests for New Zealand.
