2017 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 13/16 (81%) [Last week: 6/8]
Margin Betting: 2/3 (67%) [Last week: 2/3]
2016 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 71%
Margin Betting: 54%
(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)
Storm v Broncos
Offense VOA: Storm 15.32% (5th), Broncos 39.94% (1st)
Defense VOA: Storm -50.55% (2nd), Broncos -61.15% (1st)
The opening match of the round sees the undefeated Melbourne Storm hosting the Brisbane Broncos, who are fresh off yet another barnburner of a Queensland derby.
The Storm did enough to win in New Zealand last week, going toe-to-toe with the Kiwis for a half of football, before blowing them away in the 2nd stanza. Though the Storm’s offensive VOA numbers are lower than what we’re used to seeing from them (but still very good), it’s worth noting that both of the Storm’s opening matches were played in atrocious weather conditions that weren’t at all conducive to attacking football. As a result, we suspect that the Storm’s numbers may be artificially deflated, and on what should be a clear night in Victoria’s capital, we hope to see Melbourne start to look a little bit more Storm-ish. It’s a strange state of affairs indeed when we’re looking forward to Melbourne for the weather…
The Broncos went down to the Cowboys in golden point last week, but were far from embarrassed. When you consider the strength of the Broncos’ two opening opponents (Cronulla and North Queensland), the Broncos’ performances have been nothing short of superb, and as a result we have them currently rated as the form team in the competition.
But form will only get you so far. At some point, the physical toll of two gruelling matches may come back to haunt the Broncos, and it may well be fatigue that ultimately separates these two sides on Thursday night. We can’t help thinking back to how flat the Cowboys were in last year’s Preliminary Final following these teams’ previous meeting, and wondering whether Brisbane might suffer the same fate. Add to this the return of Billy Slater, whose presence will allow Cameron Munster to return to five-eighth (where he trained for much of the off-season), and the possible return of the Storm’s forward leader, Jesse Bromwich, and there’s reason enough to suspect the Storm might have a little too much for Brisbane. However, we’d stop well short of calling this a foregone conclusion.
Our tip: Storm [Read more…]