2022 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 12/24 (50%) (Last Week: 4/8)2021 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)2020 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)2019 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)2018 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)2017 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)- Titans by 12 – We’ve verified from several sources and can confirm that it’s not a typo – the NRL have indeed willfully scheduled the Tigers to play Thursday Night Footy this week. Our best guess is that when the draw was being set this looked like one of the more winnable games for the Tigers, and in some ways we suppose it is. The Titans are generally a pretty accommodating defense, and have a nasty habit of conceding more points than their high-octane offense can run down. But we can’t ignore the fact that Wests are bringing their own league-worst defense into the contest, and are coming off a loss in which they mustered just 12 points against the NRL’s 2nd-worst defense – despite spending the late portion of the game against 12 men. Through the first few weeks the Tigers really have had nothing, and there’s no great reason to expect that to change tonight.
- Sharks by 1 – The bookies have the Sharks as raging-hot favourites coming into this weekend, and with good reason. Cronulla turned in one of the best wet-weather performances of recent memory last weekend, driven by the flawless kicking game of Nicho Hynes. To somehow put 8 line breaks past a previously-solid St George-Illawarra defense in a torrential downpour was the sort of effort that should make the competition sit up and take notice. But let’s not write off the Knights too quickly. Sure, the 20-38 scoreline didn’t flatter Newcastle, but considering they were playing the title favourites and spent half the match with just 12 men, you could argue they did a superb job just staying competitive. If we consider that 38-point defensive effort an understandable outlier (considering their short-handedness), then we’re reminded that their D conceded just 10 points and 5 line breaks in the opening fortnight combined. The Knights’ defense should have already earned our respect, and is easily the best Cronulla have faced thus far. They also make over 3 fewer errors per game than the Sharks, which should put in them good stead for controlling possession in what shapes as another wet weekend of football. We’re not about to tip against the Sharks after what we saw last week, but we’re certainly not giving up on Newcastle, either.
- Panthers by 8 – The Panthers have in recent times been an awful match-up for the Rabbitohs (they’ve won 7 of their past 9 meetings, including last year’s GF), driven largely by their gang-tackling style that has a habit of completely stalling opposition forward packs, which consequently takes Damien Cook out of the game (the Panthers held Souths to under 1200m in both their regular-season meetings last season, despite Souths averaging over 1500m over the year). Nothing’s changed on that front in 2022, with the Panthers averaging under 1200m conceded so far on the year, headlined by limiting Newcastle to just 1087m last weekend, despite Penrith being without half their engine room. They’re expected to get back their best player, Nathan Cleary, here, and one or both of James Fisher-Harris and Liam Martin should also return. That should be enough to see Penrith continue to improve, and frankly, they’re already pretty good.
- Broncos by 2 – We’re taking Brisbane, but not with a lot of conviction (their second half last weekend hardly inspired confidence), and on the assumption that Shaun Johnson – who has been named on an extended bench – isn’t playing. Should SJ play, we could be convinced to have a little flutter on the Warriors, largely on the back of their attacking upside if they ever get their best players on the field together. Until then, we’re not likely to seriously consider them – their defense is just so bad it should be easily picked apart by just about everybody.
- Sea Eagles by 1 – Though the history books will show that Canterbury lost to the Sea Eagles last Sunday night, rugby league was the real loser, as dozens of fans across the country were treated to one of the most putrid games of “rugby league” we can recall. The two sides combined for an unbelievable 30 errors and 21 total penalties between them in just 80 minutes (which looked like being prolonged until Daly Cherry-Evans mercifully broke the deadlock and staved off golden point), leaving Four Pines Park ringing out with more whistles than a 1980s building site. We swore on the spot that we’d be taking a long break from tipping either of those sides, only to flip over the schedule and see the Raiders appear on Manly’s dance-card. As bad as Manly have been, we haven’t been at all impressed with Canberra either, whose record so far includes having a win gifted to them by Cronulla via 14 errors, getting smacked about by North Queensland (of all teams), before last week finding themselves in a 22-point hole before halftime. They rank 3rd-last for LBVOA, with -37.14% – a figure just a cigarette paper better than Canterbury, who didn’t seem to trouble Manly’s D too much last week. To be honest, we’re expecting another bludger of a game that should admittedly be competitive; but we live in hope that Manly’s studs will click into gear, at which point they’d be far too good for a pretty ordinary Canberra side.
- Roosters by 4 – Credit where it’s due – the Cowboys defense has been vastly improved so far this season, having conceded just 4 tries through 3 games. That being said, this week’s game should be a huge leap up in difficulty. For a start, the Cowboys have won 50% or more of the possession in every game so far, which has the effect of limiting the time in which their defense is actually exposed. They may yet win the possession battle again (Sydney are notoriously error-prone), but it can’t be assumed, and almost certainly won’t be of the same magnitude as the 57% share they enjoyed against Brisbane. Secondly, it’s worth pointing out that the three games they’ve played have been against the offenses ranked last, 5th-last and 4th-last, so while their defensive results have been good, you could argue that they’re pretty much par for the course against these opponents. Take for example, Canterbury. Against the Bulldogs, the Cows held them to 2 line breaks. Against the same opponent, Manly held Canterbury to… 2 line breaks. And how many did the Eagles concede when they faced the Roosters? 7, on their way to getting pumped 26-12. Put simply, the Roosters are a different attacking beast, and we still have no faith in the Cowboys’ ability to sustainably score points.
- Storm by 20+
- Eels by 12 – We feel embarrassed at having tipped the Dragons last weekend, and won’t be making the same mistake twice. Yes, they looked better than expected through the first two rounds, but last Thursday night the clock struck midnight and they turned back into a pumpkin. Now, they’re forced to roll without the suspended Jaydn Su’a (who had been arguably their best player through the first fortnight), who is replaced by the defensively limited Jack Gosiewski. This is extremely bad news against an attack-first Eels team, who we expect to send a ton of traffic down that corridor.
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