2022 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: 25/40 (63%) (Last Week: 6/8)
2021 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)
2020 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)
2019 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)
2018 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)
2017 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
- Raiders by 6 – If there was a positive for the Raiders in receiving a 30-16 dismantling from Melbourne, it’s in the fact that they finally managed to generate a few line breaks, with their 6 breaks their season-high, as well as just the 2nd time so far that they’ve managed more than 3. This should be comforting for Ricky Stuart, who watched his side struggle mightily against this opponent back in Round 2, being held to just 1 try and 2 line breaks. We fancy that the Raiders’ offensive uptick is coming at a fantastic time, coinciding with the Cowboys working through a minor defensive meltdown. After having conceded just 4 tries through their first 3 games, the Cows then went on to leak 10 over the past fortnight. Sure, the first blowout could be written off due to the quality of their opponent (the Roosters), to then get torched for 4 tries, 5 line breaks and 30 tackle busts by the Warriors (all of which are the Warriors’ season-highs) should be of serious concern. Consequently, the Cows have seen their LBCVOA collapse from a respectable -8.47% through the first 3 weeks (7th in the league) to a dismal 50.51% since (2nd last). Though the Cowboys will no doubt take heart from their win over Canberra four weeks ago, our feeling is that since that game, these two sides have been on two very different trajectories.
- Rabbitohs by 20+ – Before you get too hung up on the absence of Latrell Mitchell, let us remind you that Latrell was also missing through their last four games of 2021 – a period that included upsetting the eventual premiers, and coming within a 40m field goal of sending the GF into extra time. And while that game was against arguably the best team in football, this game is against the ‘defending’ wooden spooners who’ve won 2 of their past 16, have yet to score more than 2 tries in a game this year, and are coming off a 20-point beat-down from the very same Penrith team that the Latrell-less Bunnies matched it with 6 months ago. Don’t overthink it.
- Panthers by 20+ –
- Titans by 2 – We mentioned last week that we’re not buying into the supposed resurgence of the Sea Eagles, and if you take your eyes off the scoreboard, you’ll see why. Last week’s win marked the 4th time in 5 games that Manly have been held to 3 or fewer line breaks, with their past two scores being propped up by tries from kicks. Besides being generally unsustainable over a long timeframe, scoring tries from kicks also requires a crucial ingredient: field position – something the Eagles are generally poor at generating. They narrowly won the yardage battle against Canberra and Canterbury – two of the worst teams in the league in this regard – courtesy of large possession shares (55% and 53%, respectively), and came over the top of Newcastle as the Knights’ in-game injuries took their toll. In Manly’s first two games though, they were outgained by over 1ooom. Granted, the Titans are hardly elite metre-eaters themselves, but what they are is surprisingly effective at attacking Manly’s defensive structure. In their last 9 meetings, the Titans have racked up 24+ in 6 of these, winning 5. Sure, they still managed to get rolled 56-24 in the last one, but their D has substantially improved this year (they’re yet to concede more than 4 line breaks in a game, and actually have an above-average LBCVOA) and they now have the good fortune of drawing a Sea Eagles side missing not only it’s best attacking player (Tom Trbojevic), but also a key defensive cog, Morgan Harper. Though we never feel terribly comfortable tipping the Titans, on paper this actually doesn’t look like a bad match-up for them at all.
- Storm by 1 – To be clear, at this point we’re pretty much only tipping the Storm this week in line with our broader philosophy that “you’ll never go broke tipping Melbourne”. Objectively, there’s an extremely compelling argument that Cronulla could be the hottest the team in the competition right now, and are arguably playing better footy. Through five weeks, the Sharks actually lead the league in line breaks (7.2!), tackle breaks (40.6) and run metres (1476.4) per game, and they’ve managed it while seeing their defense steadily improve week-by-week (they’ve conceded fewer line breaks, tackle breaks and offloads with each passing week since Round 3, while conceding only 3 tries combined). At this point, the only reason they’re not yet our highest-rated offense is the standard of teams they’ve faced (they’ve beaten up on 4 Bottom-8 defenses, and against the lone Top-8 defense they’ve faced, they lost). This week is a huge test to see how they’re really traveling, and one that we fancy they’re probably up for. We intend to keep tipping Melbourne until proven otherwise, but be warned: the Sharks could fast be becoming the best team in the comp.
- Roosters by 12 – In two matches with both Shaun Johnson and Reece Walsh together, the Warriors have as many wins, and have seen their LBVOA improve from -29.81% in the first three weeks to -5.74% since. We doubt whether that will be enough to keep pace with the Roosters, but it should give them hope that when they run into a softer part of the schedule, they might have the firepower to make up for their pretty ordinary defense.
- Dragons by 4 – We can’t believe we’re tipping the Dragons either, but the Knights‘ past two weeks have been absolutely woeful, and they hardly have the kind of lengthy track record for us to turn a blind eye. No doubt a lot of their troubles have stemmed from absences, with David Klemmer, Lachlan Fitzgibbon and Mitch Barnett joining Jayden Brailey to give Newcastle two-thirds of an NRL-level forward pack unavailable. They get Klemmer back here, but even that gain has been somewhat offset by the loss of winger Dominic Young. With very little go-forward (they’ve been outgained by almost 900m over the past three weeks), the Knights’ offense has come to a grinding halt, scoring just 1 try in the past fortnight. The question, we suppose, is just how much of a difference will Klemmer alone make? Because for all their faults (and believe us, there are plenty), the Dragons are actually surprisingly decent at slowing opposition yardage, ranking 5th in RMCVOA. And if the Knights keep attacking the way they have been, they won’t be beating anybody – and that even includes the Dragons.
- Eels by 20+ –