2022 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 30/48 (63%) (Last Week: 5/8)2021 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)2020 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)2019 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)2018 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)2017 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)- Sharks by 20+ – If and when you read anything trying to convince you that the Sea Eagles are playing good footy, please feel confident dismissing it as either the work of a troll, or the incoherent babbling of somebody who hasn’t actually watched them play. To be frank, Manly were bad before Turbo got hurt, they’ve been bog average since, and whatever maroon-and-white mirage may have been created from their recent string of fluky and underwhelming wins is about to be shattered by a rapidly-growing Sharks-coloured juggernaut. Let’s take a moment to reflect on Manly’s wins: a 1-point victory over the team currently running last; posting an impressive-seeming scoreline against the team running 12th, despite posting just 2 line breaks; inflating the score late against an injury-ravaged Newcastle side mired in a 4-game losing streak; and being matched for tries by a Gold Coast team who only turned in about 20 minutes of first grade-quality football. And they’re somehow supposed to be a threat to Cronulla? Here’s a fun fact: the Sharks have posted 6+ line breaks in their last 5 consecutive games. How many times this year have the Eagles hit that number? Zero.
- Broncos by 8 – Given the disruption the Bulldogs have had to deal with in the lead-up to this game (losing a handful of regulars to COVID), in addition to the fact that they weren’t playing well even when these guys were available, it seems like a bit of a no-brainer to tip the Broncos here. That being said, it’s not as if Brisbane aren’t dealing with a few issues of their own. In addition to losing Ryan James and Jake Turpin, Kevin Walters has made the curious decision to tackle the long-term absence of Tesi Niu by handing a surprise fullback jersey to Te Maire Martin. In case you’ve forgotten who Martin is, he’s a former Kiwi Test five-eighth, who’s played 10 career games at the back, winning just 3. He’s a capable enough footballer, but throwing him out there to catch Matt Burton’s towering bombs without having even played a game of fullback in Queensland Cup is… an inspired choice. We still think Brisbane should be good enough to win, but don’t be surprised to see Canterbury relentlessly target Martin in the hope of being presented a few more attacking chances than they’d otherwise deserve.
- Titans by 2 – You’d think at some point we’d get tired of tipping the Titans, and if they don’t get up here, we very well might. After watching the Titans phone it in for almost an hour before effortlessly waltzing through Manly’s defensive line (they ultimately finished with more line breaks and equal tries, losing the match on goals alone), you couldn’t help but be frustrated by the Titans’ delay getting started. After back-to-back fast finishes, we suppose you could argue that they’re just super fit and built to come over the top of opponents, if it weren’t for the fact that three weeks ago they did the exact opposite, blowing the Raiders off the park for 40 minutes, before doing nothing in the second stanza. Despite their patchy form though, we still find ourselves tipping them here because the numbers they’re able to pop from their brief periods of good form are still better than what the Cowboys post in 80 minutes. In last week’s losing effort, the Titans still notched up a LBVOA of 30.07% – better than North Queensland have managed in any game this season. It’s also worth noting that the Cowboys present as a uniquely nice match-up for the Titans’ offense, with the Gold Coast’s tackle break-heavy offense (they rank 4th in TBVOA) going head-to-head with the league’s worst defense for missed tackles. Particularly appealing is the Cowboys’ right edge, where Peta Hiku (15th-most missed tackles in the league) and Jeremiah Nanai (the most in the league, period) are located. Brian Kelly could be in for a day, and we wouldn’t be shocked to see David Fifita spend some time on that edge to have a crack at Nanai. The pieces are all there for the Titans – the question is just how long they can put it together for.
- Rabbitohs by 10 – We’re not tempted to tip the Tigers here (and neither should you be), but we just wanted to take a moment to wrap their defense. No matter how many pages of newsprint were wasted on the supposedly great performance of their halves, there was absolutely nothing impressive about their offense last week – their 4 line breaks against Parra were actually the fewest the Eels have conceded all season (and the Tigers needed 53% of the footy to even get those) – but their defense has actually been pretty decent all season. If we forgive a pair of floggings by Melbourne and Cronulla (and to be fair, a lot of teams are going to get toweled up by those two this season), they’ve managed to post a LBCVOA and TBCVOA of -48.34% and -22.01% respectively in their other four games. These incredibly good numbers in matches where they weren’t immediately destined to get smoked suggests that their D may actually be borderline-elite, up until the point that they give up (which mightn’t necessarily take long, since they’ve been held to 1 try or fewer in half their games, making just about any deficit feel insurmountable). This makes picking margins for Tigers games suddenly really tricky – their D looks good enough to contain the Rabbitohs to about 3 tries if they want to; but once the Rabbits get to 3 tries, the Tigers have bugger all chance of reeling them in, and it could get ugly. We’re giving them the benefit of the doubt here that on the back of their first win, they’ll compete for longer than most would be expecting.
- Eels by 6 – We continue to be baffled by the mainstream media talking up the Eels as a supposed Top 4-calibre side. Let’s take a peek at their current Offense and Defense VOAs: with the ball, they have a VOA of 37.07% (3rd in the NRL); without it, they’re at 23.87% (3rd worst). These aren’t the numbers of a heavyweight contender – they’re essentially the numbers of the 2021 Titans (a team who nobody considered a serious premiership threat). Thankfully, the Knights’ sputtering offense isn’t likely to post more points than what Parra are capable of running down, but when the draw stiffens up in a couple of weeks, look out.
- Panthers by 16
- Roosters by 2 – If you’re wondering why we have this game projected so close, the answer lies in the Dragons posting their 3rd consecutive 6 line break performance last weekend against Newcastle (a stretch that also included facing South Sydney, so they haven’t all been gimmes). Unfortunately for the Dragons, their defense has been so consistently ordinary that they haven’t been winning many games, and if the losses are allowed to pile up, it’s probably only a matter of time before they quit on the season. But, last week’s win could give them a little bit of momentum, and their numbers so far haven’t actually been drastically worse than those of the Roosters. The Dragons actually rank 7th on Offense (vs the Roosters’ 8th), while that flips to 13th vs 10th on Defense. Reputations aside, this makes the Dragons’ current $4.50 price look incredibly tempting.
- Storm by 20+
comprehensively awesome