2022 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 63/100 (63%) (Last Week: 3/4)
2021 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)
2020 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)
2019 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)
2018 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)
Line Betting: (46%)
2017 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%
Line Betting: 55%
(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
- Cowboys by 20+
- Rabbitohs by 6 – We’re tipping the Rabbitohs by a relatively conservative margin here in part because we’re not super confident that their Origin stars Damien Cook and Cameron Murray will actually play the full game, but also because Souths have shown themselves prone to the odd defensive clunker, even against the most inept attacking sides. In the last month alone we’ve seen the Bunnies give up 5+ tries in games against such anemic offenses as the Raiders (10th) and Warriors (15th). Though the Titans are similarly ordinary with the ball in hand (they rank 12th for offense), the Rabbitohs’ occasional tendency to give up scores to scrub sides has us tempering our expectations, just that little bit. With that being said, the loss of Jayden Campbell will be huge for the Gold Coast (he’s ranked 2nd on his team for tackle busts, despite having played just 7 games), with Justin Holbrook making the peculiar decision to replace him by moving AJ Brimson to the back, and bringing Paul Turner in at 6 (peculiar because Turner has spent most of his time in Q Cup playing fullback, so he could have been brought straight in without further disrupting their combinations). Anyway, it’s done now, and the Titans will likely be done too, by about 5 on Saturday arvo.
- Storm by 2 – The Storm are probably deserved favourites here, coming in off a comfortable thrashing of Manly, while the Roosters arrive after a disappointing loss to Canberra. But while Jahrome Hughes’ return might have made Melbourne look a bit more like themselves, their numbers still have a long way to go before they’re back to being “Peak Melbourne”. While their LBVOA was back in the positives after a shambolic prior fortnight, it was a long way short of their prior highs (3.77% vs Manly, compared to 42.57% before Hughes went down). While above average, that’s actually lower than what the Roosters average for the season (16.81%), adding to the Roosters’ superiority in RMVOA (3.64% v -0.67%) and TBVOA (4.45% v -0.53%), meaning that at this stage, if you’re picking Melbourne it’s actually on the strength of their defense. Which is perfectly reasonable – on the season they rank 3rd vs the Roosters’ 6th, and unlike their O, the Storm’s D didn’t actually drop off significantly during Hughes’ absence. After a slow defensive start to the season in which the Storm gave up 3+ tries in each of their opening 3 games, Melbourne have hit that mark just 3 times since, compared to the Roosters, who’ve now leaked 3+ in their past 6 straight. Of particular concern for Sydney would be the fact that of the 6 times Melbourne have leaked 3+ tries, they’ve lost the possession battle in 4 of them, suggesting that earning a wealth of possession is crucial to putting a score on the Storm (as the Panthers and Cowboys recently did, behind possession shares of 61% and 55%, respectively). We say “concerning” because the Roosters have only earned 51% or more of the possession in 4 games all year. Which is why we do have the Storm winning here, but not by the sort of margin you may have expected, and we wouldn’t be shocked if the Roosters can even jag an upset.
- Raiders by 2 – In what shapes as a really tight battle between two in-form sides, we were planning to give a slight edge to the Broncos until news broke this afternoon that the defensively questionable Kotoni Staggs is set to be replaced by Brenko Lee, whose defense is unquestionably shit. While Staggs is broadly considered a suspect defender, conceding 0.75 line breaks per game, Lee has so far this season leaked 1 per game… in reserve grade. He’s a guy who’s known for rushing out into strange positions and presenting opportunities for his opposition, and with him likely to be defending opposite Jack Wighton and the Raiders’ preferred attacking left edge, the extra opportunities he’ll present could easily be the difference between these teams. If you’re still not convinced, we may also give the Raiders an edge from the comparative freshness of their forwards – while Canberra’s sole Origin forward, Josh Papalii, only played 22 minutes on Wednesday, the Broncos’ engine room of Payne Haas and Patrick Corrigan got sapped for 58 and 64 minutes respectively, while Kurt Capewell (who played the full 80) is a confirmed OUT. As good as the Broncos have been lately (and they’ve admittedly been pretty darn good), a huge part of that has been the result of them dominating field position (they’ve outgained their opponent by 300m+ in their past 3 straight). This could be difficult to achieve behind a drained forward pack, and against a Raiders side ranking 3rd in the league for RMCVOA (only behind noted yardage-stoppers Melbourne and Penrith). If Brisbane are losing between the 20s – and we think they might be – that’ll limit their attacking chances, and increase Lee’s exposure to Canberra’s left-side attacking shifts. Which now has us leaning towards Canberra in a potential match-of-the-round.
- Sea Eagles by 10 – Did New Zealand just play the Sea Eagles into a bit of form? Quite possibly, but it’s also possible that Manly are just better served letting Kieran Foran steer the ship. Working off the more direct style of Foran, Manly were busting through tackles at will, posting a TBVOA of 6.23% (good enough for 5th in the league). They posted their highest LBVOA since carving up the Tigers back in Round 9, leading to a season-high points tally of 44. Even the Eagles’ much-maligned forward pack got in on the action, with 4 Manly forwards running for over 100m (and no, Jake Trbojevic wasn’t one of them). There’s every reason to expect a strong encore showing here, with the Tigers ranking 2nd-last in the league for RMCVOA (they’ve given up 1350m+ in all but 4 games this season), and Manly further bolstered by the return of Taniela Paseka (who trails only Toafofoa Sipley for metres-per-carry among their forwards). We don’t necessarily think the Turbo-less Sea Eagles are amazing, but this is a bit of a cake matchup for them, and with North Queensland and Melbourne looming, this is an absolute must-win if they’re to keep hanging around near the bottom of the 8.
- Panthers by 20+
- Sharks by 14
- Eels by 12 – Though we’re no fans of the Eels, we’re nevertheless tipping them here, such is the plight of the Bulldogs. It’s hardly a secret that Canterbury are terrible, and losing to essentially Penrith’s reserve grade side last weekend will have done little to shift that perception. But that doesn’t mean this game should be unwatchable. After failing to score more than 16 points in a game through their first 10 games, the Doggies have quietly posted 18+ in 3 straight under the guidance of Mick Potter (so much for the attacking genius of Trent Barrett). Of course, they’re still losing (leaking 30+ every week will do that), but with their recent uptick of points and a date with the 2nd-worst defense in the league (the Eels have managed to give up 20+ points in 9 of their 12 matches, yet for whatever reason nobody seems to have noticed), this match could at least have the potential for a bit of a points feast on Monday afternoon. Canterbury should still lose, but they might at least lose entertainingly.
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