2022 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: 93/142 (65%) (Last Week: 5/8)
2021 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)
2020 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)
2019 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)
2018 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)
2017 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
- Roosters by 16 – At this point you’d need to have been living under a rock to be unaware of the Sea Eagles‘ Pride jersey fiasco, which has led to seven regular starters standing themselves down. Without wanting to wade into the ludicrous notion that wearing a rainbow somehow contravenes their religion (yet being a walking billboard for gambling, alcohol and the occasional church stabbing apparently doesn’t), let’s just say that this match should have been well within the range of winnability for Manly, should they be having an “on” day. Sure, they wet the bed pretty spectacularly against the Dragons last weekend, but the week after previous comparable bed-wettings they’ve actually played quite well (they backed up their flogging from Souths by touching up the Tigers 36-22; they backed up their 38-0 torching from Brisbane by getting within an inch of upsetting Parramatta). Unfortunately the loss of half their starting team probably puts an end to the chance of a similar rebound performance, and with this week’s opponent, the Roosters, immediately above them on the ladder, it’s likely to be a particularly painful loss. For what it’s worth, we’re still not expecting a complete demolition – this kind of feels like the sort of “us against the world” situation that should galvanize the players who do turn up – but the Eagles’ lack of roster depth (and the rapidly improving form of the Roosters) should still make for a comfortable enough Sydney victory.
- Storm by 18
- Panthers by 20+ – Parramatta apologists like to point to their upset 22-20 victory over the Panthers in Round 9 as some sort of “proof” that they’re contenders. Realists prefer to look at the fact that they got creamed in the stats that night – they lost the line breaks 6-2 and run metres 1492-1349, despite winning the possession battle 54-46 (how on earth do you get outgained by almost 150m while having an extra 30 runs?!) – as evidence of exactly how far away the Eels actually are. The Panthers will be without Origin stars Jahrome Luai and Stephen Crichton here, which could keep the margin below 20, but with Penrith’s offense recently heating right up (last week’s 4 line break effort against the league’s 4th-best defense snapped a 9-game streak of making 5 or more line breaks in matches – the Eels don’t have 9 such games collectively on the season), we’re still happy tipping a walloping.
- Raiders by 6 – We’ve been talking up the Raiders for a while now (and we still think they’re being quietly underrated as they continue their slow march up the NRL ladder), but we just want to warn that this game isn’t necessarily the slam dunk tip it may appear to be on first glance. As good as the Raiders may be, their offense remains strangely limited to a ceiling of 4 tries per game (they’ve exceeded that mark just 3 times all season). Given the strength of their D, this is often enough. But it’s nevertheless worth noting that in Jayden Campbell’s 8 games in first grade this year, the Titans have hit this mark themselves 6 times (and on his career, he’s 10 from 15). As it happens, last week he didn’t even hit the field until the 48th minute, from which point the Titans scored 3 tries in the following 20 minutes. If Justin Holbrook stops with the self-sabotage and actually plays his best attacking player for the full game, the Gold Coast do have the capacity to score enough points for this to be competitive (even against a defense of Canberra’s quality). Of course, they’d likely probably still lose (the theme of their season has been being otherwise competitive on the way to getting repeatedly beaten), but we’re not banking on them getting flogged, and we actually don’t mind the Titans at their current price of $3.10.
- Sharks by 8 – With the Rabbitohs extending their run to 4 consecutive wins since Latrell Mitchell’s return, we can certainly understand the appeal in picking the Bunnies. All of a sudden, the Rabbitohs are absolutely raining points, and seem to have put aside the inconsistency that plagued them earlier in the year. However, winning has a bit of a tendency to mask deficiencies – while the South Sydney Hype Train has been quickly gathering steam, apparently nobody’s noticed that they’ve now leaked 6 line breaks in 3 consecutive matches (2 of which were against offenses ranked in the competition’s bottom 3). Given the rate that their line has been getting put through the shredder, we can’t help feeling like the Sharks may be just the team to hand the Bunnies a heavy dose of reality. The Sharks rank 1st in the league for LBVOA, and are a better defense than any of the sides Souths have faced since Mitchell’s return (meaning we’re not expecting Souths to drop another 24+ score – which is exactly what they’re likely to need in order to keep pace with the Sharkies). This definitely has Match of the Round potential, but it nevertheless looks like a match-up that plays to Cronulla’s strengths.
- Broncos by 18
- Bulldogs by 6 – As with the Rabbitohs above, the recent wins for the Bulldogs seem to have obscured the extent to which their defense has completely disintegrated since the arrival of Mick Potter as coach. Yes, they’re suddenly scoring points, but when your defense is so shoddy that you’re forced to rely on multiple intercept tries in order to get past the Titans, it’s not a good sign. Since they switched coaches, their LBCVOA has collapsed from -18.50% with Barrett (good enough for 2nd in the competition) to 14.75% under Potter (12th). Accordingly, last week marked the 5th time in 8 games that they’ve given up 26 points or more. Thankfully, this week they’ve drawn a Knights side who have hit the 26 point mark just 3 times all season, and are now without their best player (Kalyn Ponga) and edge forward Lachlan Fitzgibbon (who’s having a curiously down year, but has historically been one of their better performers). The Knights’ attacking struggles are the only reason we’re tipping the Doggies, and if you’d been wondering why we refuse to buy into the mirage of the Bulldogs’ lift in form, now you know.
- Cowboys by 14