2022 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 130/194 (67%) (Last Week: 1/4)2021 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)2020 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)2019 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)2018 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)2017 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)- Raiders by 2 – We warned Eels fans last week that Parramatta’s only hope to compete with Penrith (and any other elite sides, for that matter) hinged on their ability to continue an absurdly good run of dominating possession (prior to that game, they’d earned 50%+ of possession in 7 of their previous 8, winning 6). As it came to pass, the Panthers denied Parramatta their typical smorgasbord of penalties. The Panthers had their 2nd-lowest total penalties conceded for the season, which – combined with Waqa Blake’s hands of stone – led to Parra being unable to win possession, and in turn, their inevitable demise. Unfortunately, winning the lion’s share of possession may not get any easier tonight against the Raiders – prior to Canberra’s upset win over Melbourne last weekend (which they managed despite losing possession 49-51), the Raiders past four possession totals were 51%, 53%, 57% and 57% – the sort of possession domination that the Eels typically enjoy. In fact, winning the possession battle has been every bit as important to Canberra’s success in 2022 as it has for Parramatta. Through the Raiders’ first eight games – a period in which they won just 2 matches – the Raiders won the possession battle just 3 times (games which accounted for both their wins, as well as a late collapse against the Warrriors). Since then though, they went on to win possession in 11 of their last 16 regular season matches, which allowed them to find success through a period when their football wasn’t terribly impressive, and build their form to a point where they were last week able to knock out the 2nd-best team in the league with a less-than-even share of the footy. In tipping Canberra here, we’re assuming that both sides’ recent form will continue, which would place the Raiders far enough ahead to win this game even without the majority of possession (and if they are able to earn the most possession, there’s a non-zero chance they could actually dish out a hiding). Over the past fortnight, the Eels’ offensive numbers have come to a grinding halt, producing just 4 combined tries and 5 combined line breaks against Melbourne and Penrith; compared to 14 and 12 for the Raiders vs Wests and the Storm. Granted, there’s an enormous talent gulf between the Panthers and Tigers, but the Raiders still dominated Parramatta for LBVOA (which adjusts for opposition quality) 16.92% to -33.67%. Of course, there’s no guarantee that either side continues their current trajectory; the Raiders recent numbers in particular came virtually out of nowhere (their 3 most recent LBVOA totals all place in their 7 best performances of the year). For this reason, our enthusiasm is muted, and we’re keeping the margin close – it wasn’t that long ago that Parramatta hung 28 points on Canberra, in what was their 3rd-best attacking effort of the year. If you think the Eels are likely to bounce back to form, we completely understand it – but if Canberra maintain their current form, even an in-form Parramatta mightn’t be enough.
- Sharks by 6 – In picking the Sharks, we’re opting to assume that both sides here will be regressing towards their season averages, which would give Cronulla a clear advantage. The Sharks come into this match with both the better offense (Offense VOA of 30.86% v 22.18%) and defense (Defense VOA of -22.58% v 6.49%), and the Rabbitohs are also forced to navigate the loss of key forward Tom Burgess (who leads all Souths front-rowers in run metres per game, with their 2nd-best metres-per-carry). However, be aware of one thing: the Sharks’ defensive numbers can be extremely volatile, and while on average they’re very good, in any given week (and last week’s putrid defense against the Cows is a perfect example) they can really stink it up – and the Rabbitohs’ offense is plenty good enough to torch any defense that doesn’t aim up. The Sharks have given up 20+ points on 8 separate occasions this season, losing 6 of those games – and running into a Souths team that’s scored 20+ on 18 separate occasions, this is extremely bad news if Cronulla don’t show up. The good news is that (unsurprisingly) most of Souths’ big scores have come against bad defenses – they’ve only faced above-average defenses 10 times all year, losing 6 of those. Further, in 7 of the Bunnies’ 10 losses this year, they’ve been held to 16 points or less. Taken together, this points to stopping the Rabbitohs’ offense being the secret to success for Cronulla. On average, they’re plenty good enough to do it (we’re talking about a Cronulla unit that’s held the Panthers to 4 line breaks, and Melbourne to just 2), but we can’t ignore the fact that there’s been plenty of days where they wouldn’t (this is also a unit that’s given up 9 line breaks to the Roosters, and 8 to the Broncos). The Sharkies have so far had more good days than bad days in 2022, so we’re going with that – but the range of outcomes here is admittedly extremely wide.
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