The Obstruction Rule

The latest NRL news, intelligent rugby league analysis, and innovative NRL statistics

The Obstruction Rule - Rugby league analysis, news, and VOA NRL statistics

TOR in 2022

By Leave a Comment

Thanks for coming back to The Obstruction Rule for 2022.

With great pride, we want to announce that your chief analyst here has landed a gig in Clubland for this season (that club’s name has been withheld to protect the innocent). While exciting for Yours Truly, this obviously significantly impacts on the time available to maintain the site – most available time now needs to focus on helping a team, rather than leafing through a thesaurus searching for new words to describe the Tigers (but rest assured, we’ll no doubt still think they’re playing… “lamentably”).

That being said, if you’ve been leaning on the site to help you slaughter your local tipping comp, know that you haven’t been abandoned completely. The VOA Ratings page will  continue to be updated each week throughout the season, and tips will still be uploaded each Thursday. The long-form previews will have to go for the time being, but in their place, predicted margins will be added to the tips, as a kind of proxy for how confident you should feel in any particular tip.

Finally, once the season gets going and we have a better idea of how much time is available to add content to the site, it’s likely that the Features page will receive a bit more love, with the odd long-form analytics deep-dive added to give you the occasional bed-time reading.

As always, if you have any questions about particular games or teams, feel welcome to contact me on Facebook or Twitter – it’s always a pleasure chatting footy with our loyal readership.

Thanks again for your continued support over the past six years – the opportunity to work with a team is a dream come true, and wouldn’t have been possible without the site, and – most importantly – you.

Way Too Early Season Predictions:

Premiers: Melbourne

Top 4: Melbourne, Penrith, Sydney, Manly

Wooden Spoon: Wests

Most Likely to Outperform Expectations: Warriors

Most Likely to Underperform Expectations: Newcastle

Share:

Related NRL News & Posts:

  • No Related NRL News

NRL Tips – 2019 Grand Final

By Leave a Comment

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 127/200 (64%) (Last week: 1/2)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
  • Roosters

Notes

  • Well… this is it. After seven months and 200 games of football, only two teams remain: the Raiders – the sentimental favourites; and the Roosters – the actual, deserving favourites. If we’re being completely objective, it’s impossible to argue that Canberra are the better team here. The Roosters are better on both sides of the ball, ranking 2nd in the league for defense compared to the Raiders’ 3rd, while possessing a whopping 1st vs 10th advantage on offense. Further, the Roosters are 2/2 against the Raiders head-to-head this year (though both games were very competitive). The Raiders put the competition on notice in Week One of the finals when they knocked over Melbourne, but the Roosters did the same last weekend – and they didn’t require Josh Addo-Carr tossing the ball away to do it. Put simply, the Roosters are just better at footy than Canberra this year.
  • But does that mean the Raiders can’t win? Of course not. It simply means that on the balance of probability, it’s not the most likely outcome. For Canberra to win, they’ll need a lot of things to go their way. For a start, they’ll need to find a way to shut down the Roosters’ offense. Unlike Canberra sides of the past, the 2019 model simply don’t have the points in them to run down even a modest score, especially against an elite D such as Sydney’s. On just 8 occasions this year the Raiders have conceded 4 or more tries, but in those matches, they’ve won only twice – and neither were against Top-5 defenses. So, if the Roosters manage to get to that magical 4-try mark (that they’ve hit in 15 of their 26 matches this year, including both outings against Canberra), it may very well be game over.
  • Next, they need to find a way to dominate possession. The Raiders’ offense is not only incapable of big scores, but when they get starved of possession they become incapable of putting up pretty much any score. In 6 matches against Top-5 defenses this year with 52% or less of the football, the Raiders average just 2.3 tries per game. However, when they earn 54% or more, that number jumps to 3.5. Against a high-flying Roosters outfit that’s been held to 2 or less tries in just 27% of their matches, it’s fair to assume they’ll need 3 here just to compete. The good news though, is that the Roosters are prone to the odd clunker (they made 14 errors even in their demolition of the Rabbitohs three weeks ago), and the Raiders are so apt at stripping the ball that they can starve their opposition for extended stretches.
  • Finally, and perhaps most impossibly, the Raiders need to find a way to shut down Luke Keary. In Keary, the Roosters have a half so dominant that he ranks 1st in the league for line break assists, 1st for try involvements and 2nd for try assists – despite having only played 21 games. Keary plays predominantly on the Roosters’ left edge, which means he’ll be defended by the Raiders’ right – the same right edge that was repeatedly terrorised by the Rabbitohs last week (they conceded 3 line breaks down that edge alone). We fully expect the Roosters to target that side of the field and specifically Joey Leilua, who’s prone to coming out of the line.
  • If the Raiders can tick all these boxes – shut down Keary, dominate possession and concede less than 4 tries – they just might be able to pull off a Grand Final win to rival 1989. If you’re wondering how many times teams have successfully met those conditions the answer is 7 – and those matches account for 5 of the Roosters’ 7 losses this year (in the other 2, Keary wasn’t playing). It’s not impossible, but Canberra are going to have to play out of their skin.
Share:

Related NRL News & Posts:

  • No Related NRL News

TOR in 2019

By Leave a Comment

This is a friendly notice to our regular readers that your favourite rugby league site (The Obstruction Rule, not that clunky nrl.com garbage) will be scaling back the volume this season.

As a result of other life commitments (don’t they always get in the way?!), we just won’t have time to maintain the Newsfeed this season. We’re sorry. That being said, you can get all of your breaking NRL news from our good friends over at NRL Universe, without breaking a sweat.

That said, we’re not abandoning you completely. You can still expect to find the VOA Ratings updated early each week, and we’ll have tips posted before kickoff each Thursday. We won’t have time to write the weekly War and Peace-length previews each week, but if we have something relevant to say each week, that’s where you’ll find it.

Bring on the footy.

Share:

Related NRL News & Posts:

  • No Related NRL News

Rabbitohs Need To Put Difficult Pre-Season Behind Them

By Leave a Comment

It’s been a frustrating start to the pre-season for the South Sydney Rabbitohs and their new coach Wayne Bennett. The squad has returned to training but will be missing several of their big stars either to injury, international duty or, in the case of Damien Cook and Dane Gagai, a late return from their own exploits with the national team.

At least the youngsters were assembled for the first session, and the plan to promote youth has continued with news of two new contract extensions from within their junior ranks.

Signing On

It’s been confirmed that Cameron Murray and Campbell Graham have signed new deals that will commit their futures to South Sydney until 2021. Both are products of the youth system at the Rabbitohs and general manager of football Shane Richardson believes that both have what it takes to become NRL regulars.

We can expect to see both Murray and Graham play some part in the upcoming season but should the South Sydney side be looking for more senior reinforcements before the campaign gets underway next March?

Seeking Revenge

Having made it through the regular season, the Rabbitohs looked nicely placed for a slot in the Grand Final before losing out at the penultimate stage to cross city rivals the Sydney Roosters. The Roosters went on to claim the big prize and will start as favourites in bet365’s NRL betting markets for a successful title defence.

South Sydney are, meanwhile, joint third favourites along with the Brisbane Broncos but while there are still some four months to go until the first ball is kicked in anger, their pre-season preparations have hardly got off to an ideal start.

Notable Absentees

Among those missing from the early training sessions is skipper Greg Inglis who is using the time to recover from double arm surgery. It’s been an unhappy period for the 31 year old who lost the national captaincy almost as quickly as it was handed to him at the end of September.

Inglis is due in court in relation to alleged motoring offences so he would be well served to get any distractions out of the way before focusing on a return to the Rabbitohs squad and a productive 2019.

Sam Burgess will also be missing from the first training camp due to injury concerns although both he and Inglis are expected to be fit and ready to play a full part by the New Year. Burgess’ younger twin brothers Tom and George will also be missing although in their case they were recently involved in England’s international series with New Zealand.

Completing the list of absentees are Cook and Gagai who should be first to return to the fold. The news regarding Cameron Murray and Campbell Graham shows that the future may be bright at ANZ Stadium but Rabbitohs fans may have been hoping for signings of a more senior nature. Last year’s progression to the Preliminary Finals suggests that South Sydney can go one better in 2019 but pre-season preparation hasn’t offered the perfect start to a long campaign.

Share:

Related NRL News & Posts:

  • No Related NRL News

End of an Era: No sunset ride for Thurston

By Leave a Comment

With the regular season drawing to a close, places in the finals series are still up for grabs, but one team that won’t be progressing to the next stage are the North Queensland Cowboys. A forgettable campaign that leaves Paul Green’s team with just 6 wins from their first 22 games means that the side’s only remaining battle is to lift themselves off the foot of the table.

The 2019 season will be one of rebuilding and the Cowboys will have to do it all without their influential captain and most experienced player.

Cast Adrift

It’s tight at the top of the table with three teams locked on 32 points after those first 22 matches. Melbourne Storm, Sydney Roosters and the South Sydney Rabbitohs are battling for supremacy while the Dragons, the Panthers and the Sharks are all just a further two points behind the leading three.

The Storm and the Roosters are joint-favourites to win the regular season in bet365’s NRL betting markets and there’s plenty still to play for at the right end of the table. Meanwhile, North Queensland are cast adrift at the bottom with just 14 points and many Cowboys fans will be relieved when the campaign comes to an end.

Saying Goodbye

The fact that Johnathan Thurston is even back on the field is an outstanding feat in itself and the 35-year-old has done his best to shore up this Cowboys unit during a difficult regular season (as widely as Thurston’s been criticised, few would notice that he remains first in the league for line break assists, and tied for first for try assists). North Queensland’s international back missed virtually the entire 2017 campaign and at his advancing years, a full recovery may have seemed unlikely.

Thurston admitted that his recovery from surgery last June had surprised his specialist but while the physical issues may have prompted his decision to retire, the player confirmed that the mental side of a tough season has reinforced his decision to call it a day.

The close nature of many of the Cowboy’s defeats is behind much of Thurston’s frustration. Seven of their losses have been by the narrow margins of seven points or less so there is a feeling that North Queensland should not be battling it out with the Eels for the wooden spoon.

What’s Next?

Having reached the Grand Final twelve months ago, this season’s results mark an alarming slump for the Cowboys. North Queensland won the pennant in 2015 but now it seems the squad may be heading for that dreaded ‘period of transition’.

Inevitable questions will emerge over the role of Coach Paul Green but this is the same man who led the Cowboys to two Grand Finals within four years. After four years in charge, Green may make the decision himself and choose to take on a new challenge but it would seem unwise for North Queensland to go into 2019 without him.

As Johnathan Thurston alluded to, it’s been about fine margins this season and a few squad changes could turn things around next term. Unfortunately for Cowboys’ fans, Thurston’s confirmed retirement leaves one of the bigger holes in this North Queensland squad.

Share:

Related NRL News & Posts:

  • No Related NRL News

Contact Us