2022 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: 88/134 (66%) (Last Week: 7/8)
2021 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)
2020 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)
2019 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)
2018 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)
2017 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
- Broncos by 8 – How on earth the Eels can be coming into this match as favourites against an absolutely piping hot Broncos side is honestly beyond us. What is it exactly about Parramatta that’s so appealing? Is it their Bottom 4-standard defense that has given up 4 or more line breaks in all but 3 matches this season (and 6+ in 8 of those)? Is it their mediocre offense that ranks below average in both LBVOA and TBVOA (and in the only VOA category they’re above average for – RMVOA – Brisbane are the best in the league)? Perhaps it’s their apparently impressive past month or so of football, in which they’ve copped 2 hidings of 13+, while winning 3 games unconvincingly by 10 points or fewer (all against teams currently outside the Top 8, no less)? In all likelihood, the answer is probably in Parramatta’s strong recent record against the Broncos, having won their past 5 straight. However, it’s worth remembering that across those three seasons, the Broncos finished 8th, last and 14th – which is to say, just about everyone has a strong recent record against Brisbane. But this Broncos outfit looks different. These Brisbane Broncos sit equal with the Eels on the ladder, have won back-to-back games with essentially a reserve grade outfit, and will now be bolstered by the return of their entire starting middle rotation (Payne Haas, Corey Jensen and Patrick Carrigan), plus Corey Oates and Kurt Capewell to boot. We’ve long been of the view that Parra are more likely to miss the 8 altogether than they are to make the Top 4, and Brisbane can go a long way towards bringing that to fruition tonight by handing them the beating their scrub defense deserves.
- Sea Eagles by 20+ – Suffice to say that we don’t consider the Dragons a worthy opponent of the Sea Eagles, but we just want to bring your attention to the terrific price on Manly, who are currently at a ludicrous $1.67 against a St George-Illawarra side who’ve leaked 86 points and 18 line breaks in 2 weeks, and are now without their team leader in tackle busts, Moses Suli. We can only assume that punters are concerned about how Manly will go without Jake “The God of Plod” Trbojevic. The answer, in our view, is ‘significantly faster’, and to assuage your concerns, rest easy in the knowledge that in 4 games without Plod last year, they won 3 of those and posted their 2 highest points totals of the season (66 vs Canterbury and 56 vs the Titans). With Plod replaced in the squad by Taniela Paseka (3rd among Manly forwards for metres-per-carry, vs Plod’s last), if anything, we like them more.
- Roosters by 10 – Having ended a 4-match losing run in a bit of a pointsfest last week against the Saints, there are plenty of reasons to feel good about the Roosters‘ chances here. Sure, they’re still missing a couple of key forwards (Lindsay Collins and Siosiua Taukeiaho), but they’re also gaining reinforcements in the form of Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Matt Lodge, so their pack should still be plenty competitive. Our biggest concern with Sydney is actually the recent state of their defense, having leaked 5+ line breaks in their past 4 consecutive games. The worst offender has typically been Paul Momirovski, who was ironically brought over from Penrith as something of a defensive specialist. He’s unfortunately been struggling badly in 2022, leaking the 11th-most line breaks in the competition, despite playing just 13 games. He shouldn’t be too exposed here given the Knights’ typical inability to effectively utilise their centres, but we’ve nevertheless capped the margin in anticipation of Newie bagging a few tries.
- Raiders by 12 – As we’ve said previously in Raiders games, the margin here doesn’t reflect our confidence in Canberra. We feel plenty comfortable tipping Canberra here – we’re giving the Warriors about a 50/50 shot to even reach 10 points – but the margin in Raiders games is limited by the low ceiling of their offense. In 17 matches this season, the Raiders have exceeded 24 points just twice – despite having hit 20 points 7 times. If they’re ever going to run up a score, a home tilt against the defense ranked 12th is as good a time as any to do it, but we’re not betting on it.
- Panthers by 14 – An away trip to Penrith will be a good test for the Sharks, who’ve recently been warming back up into a little bit of form. The questions lingering over that form are over the quality of sides they’ve beaten – in winning 5 matches on the trot, they’ve beaten the sides sitting 12th, 14th and 15th, and an Origin-depleted Melbourne, before finally rolling an opponent of note last weekend in North Queensland. Though the win over the Cowboys was certainly convincing, it was also predictable – the Cowboys are a plus-matchup for Cronulla, given the gulf between the sides in their abilities to produce line breaks. However, that isn’t the case here – while Cronulla rank 1st in LBVOA, the Panthers are an admirable 4th, and arguably in better form (Penrith have posted positive LBVOAs in their past 9 straight matches, compared to Cronulla’s 7). Beyond that, the Panthers are otherwise better right much across the board – they have a better defense, better pack, better wingers (especially with the loss of Sione Katoa) and better halves. Though Cronulla have done a good job this year beating the teams they should beat, they’ve also gotten whacked a few times by the teams who are better than them (most notably Melbourne, Sydney and Canberra). Penrith are the latter.
- Storm by 12 – The Rabbitohs/Storm match is particularly interesting given the different trajectories these two sides appear to be on. In the Bunnies’ case, they’ve been reinvigorated by the return of Latrell Mitchell, winning 3 straight games while posting 35 points per game. Melbourne, meanwhile, have dropped 3 straight for the first time since 2015, driven largely by the cumulative impact of injuries and Origin. On the surface, it looks like a slam dunk tip of the Rabbitohs, but we’re not so sure. With their Origin contingent back last week, Melbourne actually outgunned the Raiders for line breaks 6 to 4, and outgained them by over 100m (after having been outgained themselves by over 200m in the previous two losses), which makes last week’s loss look a little different from the previous two (in which they were, to be frank, terrible). The loss of Ryan Papenhuyzen stings, but to be fair, he was lost before the quarter mark of last week’s game (meaning most of their numbers were posted without him), and you may be surprised to learn that they actually won their last 3 matches that Papz sat out (against Manly, Sydney and Brisbane – all sides right around Souths on the ladder). Most critically for us though, is the likelihood that Melbourne should have an absolute ton of possession, with the Storm bringing the league’s lowest error rate (under 9 per game) into a match against the league’s highest (almost 13). Armed with a spine still loaded with Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes and Harry Grant, we just don’t think the Rabbitohs’ D is good enough to withstand any sort of prolonged exposure (especially having just given up 28 points for two weeks running against offensive featherweights Newcastle and Canterbury). In all likelihood, we think both attacking units are likely to do well, but we’re assuming Melbourne win possession and field position, and that difference should be worth a try or two.
- Titans by 2 – What do you prefer – the consistent mediocrity of the Titans (who’ve produced a LBVOA between -6.00% and -29.23% in 7 of their past 9 matches), or the hot-and-cold mystery box of the Bulldogs (who’ve bounced up-and-down for five weeks between -63.86% and 30.01% – FYI, on the current pattern they’re due for a “down”). Last weekend marked the Titans’ 7th loss this year by 8 points or fewer, which highlights that they’re not generally that far away – they just don’t win. The return of Jayden Campbell will be a huge help (they average 19.7 points per game with Campbell, a mark they’ve hit just once in 10 games without him), but the biggest argument in favour of picking the Gold Coast is probably in the other team, where Jake Averillo (4th on his team for try involvements) has been scratched due to COVID, and Josh Addo-Carr (2nd) remains in doubt. For an attacking unit that we’re still not convinced is actually any good, that’s enough for us to be put off; but we can understand anyone’s hesitation actually backing the Titans (it just feels icky, doesn’t it?).
- Cowboys by 20+