2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 78/108 (72%) (Last week: 5/8)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Rabbitohs
• Sharks
• Panthers
• Warriors
• Raiders
• Storm
• Eels
• Sea Eagles

Notes

• Through much of this season, the Broncos had been showing glimpses of competitiveness, with their offense being reasonably productive while their defense consistently lets the team down (they’ve conceded less than 20 points in a game just 3 times). In response – understandably – Kevin Walters seems to have been on a mission to dump the players most responsible for the shoddy defense. First, it was Tesi Niu (7 line breaks conceded from just 6 starts) and Anthony Milford (3rd most in the team for missed tackles, and 2nd in ineffective tackles). Still, they leaked points. So, in Round 8, Brodie Croft got the punt (the most kicking errors in the team, and a further 5 tries conceded in just 7 starts). Corey Oates (5 line breaks conceded in 5 starts) and Jamayne Isaako (the most errors in the team and the lowest tackle efficiency) have similarly been banished to the Netherrealm. And what result has this had? Against Canberra, the Broncos made it 3 games on the trot that they’ve given up 38 or more points, showing that however bad these guys might be, their replacements don’t appear to be any better. Their problems then become compounded by the fact that all these players have the same thing in common – they’re the Broncos’ most productive offensive players. In Isaako, Milford and Croft, the Broncos have omitted 3 of their 4 team leaders in line break assists and try assists. Niu has 5 try involvements from just 6 games. Oates is one of just four players in the team averaging over 10m per carry. And what do you suppose happens when you eliminate every remotely dangerous attacking player from the squad? Over the past three weeks, the Broncos have produced a paltry LBVOA of -58.90%  (worst in the league), after having been at -9.32% over the opening five weeks (before all the chopping and changing started). Now, Walters seems to have placed himself in a spot where he’s forced to give Karmichael Hunt another run, despite him producing 0 line breaks, 0 tackle breaks and 0 assists last weekend, just because Albert Kelly is injured and Milford’s papers have been stamped “never to return again”. The lesson here is that perhaps you should only drop players for underperformance if you have someone better to replace them with. The whole thing is a mess, and they’ve suddenly found themselves back in the race for the Wooden Spoon as a result.
• The Cowboys and Sharks were on opposite ends of surprise results last weekend (we failed to tip either result), as the Cowboys failed to convert a 12-0 lead over a Tom Trbojevic-less Sea Eagles into a win, while Cronulla hung on to snatch a last-gasp victory over an Origin-depleted Penrith side. Though the results were different, the root cause for the surprise outcomes was identical – discipline. Against Manly, the Cowboys produced their worst effort since Round 1, making an unbelievable 16 errors, coupled with a further 12 total penalties conceded – resulting in Manly receiving a net total of 14 extra sets, and a 57-43 possession advantage. The extra defensive workload gassed the bigger Cowboys forwards, and saw Manly run away with the contest just before halftime. In contrast, the Sharks were able to run up a lead via an almost flawless first half, in which they made just 2 errors and conceded 2 total penalties, earning a 60-40 possession advantage, and taking an 18-0 lead. Granted, they then saw that lead evaporate when the Panthers’ starting pack returned in the second half, but the damage was already done – this was a win earned in the first stanza (and capped with a field goal at the death). Though we’d warn you against expecting either side to repeat these sorts of numbers on Friday (both are outliers compared to their season-long numbers), it is reasonable to expect some sort of possession advantage for the Sharks – Cronulla rank 5th in the league for handling errors (9.9 per game), whereas the Cowboys are the worst (11.5); Cronulla also happen to have the best record for total penalties conceded (6.8 per game), while the Cows are 10th (8.4). More significantly though, is the difference Shaun Johnson has made since pinching Chad Townsend’s halfback jersey. Johnson has produced 3 line break assists in his 2 games back – a huge leap in production from Townsend, who averaged 0.55 per game. Accordingly, the Sharks’ LBVOA has skyrocketed  to 63.65% since his return. With Johnson and Matt Moylan together, the Sharks seem to have found a halves combination that can be genuinely productive (albeit one that upper management doesn’t particularly want). We expect the Cows’ defense to be better with a more even possession share and Coen Hess returning to the middle of the field where he’s a much better fit, but with the Cows having leaked 6+ line breaks in 5 of their past 6, we’re still inclined to back Cronulla to keep the good times rolling.
• After their depleted squad lost 2 games back-to-back, we could certainly understand folks starting to doubt the Panthers. Our advice? Don’t. All of Penrith’s issues in their recent losses have stemmed from either their huge decline in run metres (they’ve averaged an obscene 475 net run metres per game over the season; without their Origin stars that’s dropped to -54, a difference of over 5 football fields worth of yardage per game) or their drop in effectiveness on their (comparatively few) trips to the red zone (after averaging 5.6 tries per game pre-Origin, they’ve averaged 2 tries per game in the fortnight since). Both should be corrected here. Incoming is Brian To’o and Isaah Yeo (1st and 4th on the team for runs of 8m+), while the return of Penrith’s Origin halves pairing should see their offense instantly click back into point-scoring mode. And as an added bonus, the difficult fortnight also unveiled Izack Tago as a budding star, with the youngster keeping his bench gig after an impressive fortnight in which he averaged over 10m per carry, busted 5 tackles, scored a try and didn’t concede a line break. We really like the Roosters as a side this year, but we don’t think they can match it when Penrith are at their best, and on their return to Penrith Park and with their stars all back, we fully expect Penrith to be at their best.
• Clear your schedules – Saturday arvo, 3pm is going to be a screamer. In the red (and blue) corner, we have the Knights, suddenly boosted by the return of their two chief playmakers, Kalyn Ponga and Mitchell Pearce (they also get Hymel Hunt back too, for good measure). If you’re thinking “gee, that probably makes the Knights a lot better offensively”, you’re absolutely right. On the season, the Knights have a LBVOA of -5.67% (10th in the league). But in their 5 starts with Ponga (who, may we remind you, has yet to play alongside Pearce this season), that shoots up to 26.74% (good enough for 2nd). So, on the back of this attacking explosion, Newie are a shoo-in, right? Not so fast. You see, the Warriors are enjoying a similar offensive spike thanks to their own Boy Wonder, Reece Walsh. With Walsh playing, the Warriors lift their LBVOA from 1.76% (6th) to 20.70% – placing them fairly in the neighbourhood of Ponga and his Knights. So, if both sides are playing a similarly exciting standard of attacking footy, how can we split them? We fancy the Warriors have two clear advantages. First, is the return of Addin Fonua-Blake. Rarely would we point to a prop forward as being a huge difference-maker, but for AFB we’ll make an exception. Fonua-Blake returned last weekend off the bench (and instantly dropped a 10 metres-per-carry effort, of course), contributing to an performance that saw New Zealand post the 5th-best yardage of any team against Melbourne this year (and they did it on just 46% possession). With run metres having been generally hard to come by for New Zealand this season with their best metre-eater on the shelf (they rank 4th-last in RMVOA), it bodes well for them to suddenly take it to one of the game’s best forward packs. Second, we point to the continued presence of Enari Tuala in the Knights’ backline. Tuala has been consistently abused by opposition offenses, conceding the most line breaks (21) and 3rd-most tries (17) of any player in the NRL this season. Ideally, he wouldn’t be in the team, but with Bradman Best and Edrick Lee still on ice, the Knights are forced to continue trotting him out, providing a clear target for Walsh and company to exploit. Accordingly, we’re giving the Warriors the edge, and expect them to get home in a shoot-out, likely scoring 24+.
• It’s hard to say if the Raiders have shot into favouritism this week on the back of their own performance (which was their best of the season across virtually all their offensive metrics), or as a result of the Dragons‘ embarrassing flogging at the hands of Canterbury. If it’s the latter, we’d warn not to expect the Dragons to be that bad again – they posted their fewest tries, line breaks, tackle breaks, offloads and run metres all in the same game, against the worst team in the NRL. It would be impossible for them (or anyone) to be as completely ineffective as St George-Illawarra were last week. Yes, it was an other-worldly level of terrible, but it was also an aberration. We fully expect them to return to their typical level of terrible this weekend (well, let’s not kid ourselves – they are ranked 2nd-last for Offense for a reason). As for the Raiders, they might actually be on to something. Though we still think their D needs work, their offense might actually be getting there. In thumping the Broncos, the Raiders made it their 2nd consecutive game with a positive LBVOA (something the Dragons have achieved just 5 times all season), led by a superb debut fullback outing by Bailey Simonsson. The Raiders’ offense has been struggling since losing Charnze Nikoll-Klokstad to injury, with Caleb Aekins providing solid but unspectacular contributions (3 try assists, 5 line break assists and 2 line breaks in 7 starts). Simonsson blew the doors off against Brisbane, posting 2 try assists, 3 line break assists and 1 line break in just his first start (he also casually ran for a team-high 245m). If Simonsson can produce something similar in his encore performance, the Raiders won’t just be comfortably better than St George-Illawarra – they might have just found the spark-plug to ignite their season.
• It should go without saying that the Storm are significantly better than the Tigers (heck, they’re significantly better than pretty much everybody), but it’s worth pointing out that the Tigpies’ capitulation against Parramatta was not only predictable, but the very kind of thumping loss that had been building throughout their recent “successful” run (we use the inverted commas since their only wins have come against teams with severe attacking deficiencies, mainly due to significant player absences – the Dragons, Panthers and Knights). Wests fans were all screaming about the injustice of the penalty count against Parra (17 total penalties to 8), but it’s worth noting that this wasn’t out of character for Wests – the Tigers’ discipline has been getting steadily worse for weeks. Through the Tigers’ opening 5 games, they didn’t concede double-digit penalties once; but since that time, they’ve now done it in 5 of their past 9, culminating in back-to-back 17 penalty efforts over the past fortnight. Similarly, they’ve been getting just as loose with the ball, making double-digit errors in their past 4 straight, after doing do just 4 times in their first 10. They’ve been able to avoid taking too much punishment through this period, in large part thanks to some similarly atrocious discipline by their opponents – in all of the Tigers’ past 4 wins, their opponents have made at least 11 errors and conceded at least 9 penalties – preventing the kind of possession disadvantage you would typically find associated with these kinds of numbers. But against Parramatta, they found an opponent who didn’t make a habit of giving away penalties, and as a result, Wests found themselves on the arse-end of a 56-44 possession count, and got pumped 40-12 accordingly (it’s also worth mentioning that Parra did still make 14 errors – had their handling been even remotely decent, the Eels could have gotten north of 60%). With Melbourne having won the possession in all but 2 of their matches so far, the Tigers are going to have to significantly improve if they’re to make this game competitive, and even then, the Storm would likely blow it out in the second half. We like Melbourne, and fancy they’re a good shot to score 40+.
• It seems like funky possession counts was the theme of last weekend, with the Bulldogs’ upset of the Dragons a perfect case study in how even the worst teams can compete if their discipline is good enough. Canterbury lack any sort of competence in the fundamentals of rugby league – they rank last in the league for LBVOA, last for TBVOA, and are a distant last for conceding run metres. Taken together, it’s typical to expect the Bulldogs to lose the yardage battle (they’d been outgained in every game this season until last weekend); and on the rare occasions they do get down their opponent’s end, they’re unlikely to do much with it. So, the only way you could expect Canterbury to be competitive would be to keep the ball out of their opponent’s hands as much as possible, via low error and penalty counts, and forced repeat sets. With more possession in better field position, they at least give themselves a chance to jag a few tries from kicks (since they’re chronically incapable of generating line breaks), while starving their opponent of opportunities to inflict damage themselves. Unsurprisingly then, the Dogs’ three best outings of the year – their wins over Cronulla and Saints, and narrow loss to Canberra – came with error counts of just 8, 5 and 5 (their average across all other games is 9.8) – and last weekend they were able to further back that up by conceding just 7 total penalties. The result was an incredible 58-42 possession advantage from which it is almost impossible to lose (for why we say ‘almost’, continue reading below). If they can do this with regularity, they’ll be a chance to compete with any of the bottom 8 sides, if they’re having a bad day. If not, they’ll just return to getting whooped.
• Now, we just pointed to it being ‘almost’ impossible to lose with 58%+ of the possession. We say ‘almost’ because the Titans have just managed to do the impossible – lose back-to-back matches, despite earning a 59% possession share in both of them. The amazing part of this isn’t just that they managed to lose (in fairness, these games were against the Storm and Roosters), but the fact that they somehow managed to concede 20 and 35 points respectively to teams who had just 41% of the football(!). It’s no secret that the Titans’ D is awful, but to leak so many points to teams who barely touched the footy is in a totally different universe of incompetence. For the sake of comparison, let’s look at how other bad defenses have fared with monster possession shares:
  • Newcastle (57%) vs Manly: 10 points conceded;
  • Canterbury (58%) vs St George-Illawarra: 6 points conceded;
  • Wests (55%) vs St George-Illawarra: 8 points conceded.

The sole exception was the Tigers’ tribute to Tommy Raudonikis, in which they bled 34 points, despite a 56% possession share. In general, no matter how shockingly bad a defense may be, earning these sorts of volumes sufficiently limits opponent scoring opportunities to ensure the score remains beatable… unless you’re the Titans. At this point, the Titans’ D is so bad, it’s near impossible to tip them against any team with a defense capable of slowing down the Titans’ (admittedly high-powered) offense. As it happens, the Sea Eagles rank 5th in the league for Defense, held the Titans to nil the last time they played, and are welcoming back Tom Trbojevic. We fully expect Manly to drop 30+, which will be more than enough.

Related NRL News & Posts:

• No Related NRL News

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 73/100 (73%) (Last week: 2/4)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Cowboys
• Panthers
• Roosters
• Rabbitohs
• Raiders
• Storm
• Eels
• Dragons

Notes

• With Origin having been played on Wednesday, there will no doubt be questions surrounding the availability of the rep players all weekend long, and unfortunately the two games that could be most heavily impacted by any surprise omissions both land on Friday night – less than 48 hours after Origin I. At 6pm we’ll have the ultimate one-man team, the Sea Eagles, heading into battle without their ‘one man’ (Tom Trbojevic). The last time we saw the Eagles, they were getting embarrassed by a reserve-grade Knights squad (a Knights squad that would proceed to cop a 36-point hiding from Parra a week later). The cause of their disappointing performance was quite straightforward – Turbo had a quiet game (he is human, after all). After racking up an obscene 8 tries, 11 line breaks, 13 try assists and 16 line break assists through his first 6 games (honestly, those numbers are absolutely outrageous), Turbo produced just a single line break assist against Newie, and nothing else. And without Turbo ripping the defense apart, who stepped up to do the heavy lifting? Nobody. This shouldn’t come as a huge surprise; in the Eagles’ 5 matches without Turbo to open the season, they won just 1, never topped 13 points in a game, and lost by a collective scoreline of 168-47. Clearly, the Sea Eagles are suffering the effects of some absolutely diabolical roster construction, which has never been more evident than in the team named this week. Having lost Sean Keppie and Zac Saddler, Des Hasler was forced to name a team on Tuesday with not one, not two, but three(?) centres on the bench. And if that’s not bad enough, they’re spending more on each of those centres (Moses Suli, Dylan Walker and Ben Trbojevic) than the two actual starters combined (if you include at least some of the $800k+ being pissed away on the God of Plod was a down-payment on keeping his brothers, Tom and Ben). Since Tom’s been ruled out they’ve since promoted Walker to fullback, but that’s not likely to provide better value for money – in his 5 starts there to open the year, Walker provided 0 tries, 0 line breaks, 0 try assists and 3 line break assists. And is if the Sea Eagles won’t be struggling enough without their best player, the Cowboys will be getting their own best player, Jason Taumalolo, back from suspension. When you consider the many ailments of Manly’s depleted pack, to force what’s left into playing long minutes against a Taumalolo-led pack benefiting from a three-forward bench rotation just seems cruel. We never feel excited about tipping the Cows, but given the husk of a team left for Manly, we don’t feel like we have a choice.
• Unlike the Eagles, the Panthers are anything but a one-man team, but with seven players involved in Origin, they’re not looking like a slam dunk tip, either. Here, our primary concern is the failure of either Nathan Cleary or Jarome Luai to back up. Matt Burton is a stud, but Tyrone May was a loooooong way from an NRL standard halfback against Wests, and with Burton forced to carry the entire load, the Panthers produced their 2nd-lowest LBVOA of the season. That was almost enough against Wests, but they likely need to improve significantly against a Sharks side coming off a 38-10 pumping of the Titans. Fortunately, the Panthers will be welcoming back Api Koroisau, who we expect to provide significantly better direction (the amount of time Penrith spent attacking to May’s right edge was baffling considering his total ineffectiveness), and we don’t consider the remaining absences to be deal-breakers. Robert Jennings was superb in relief of Brian To’o, channeling his inner Josh Mansour as he churned out 50 extraordinarily slow post-contact metres (2nd-most in the team); the return of Moses Leota allows Spencer Leniu to return to his usual bench role (Leniu came into the game as the team leader in metres-per-carry, only to completely gas out and get benched in 17 minutes, finishing the game with a dismal 31 metres on 4 carries); while Liam Martin’s inclusion should provide a bit more punch to last week’s impotent right edge (importantly, it also frees up Scott Sorenson to return to the middle where he’s been more effective). This team will be a lot better than last week, and should have an easier time against a pretty weak Cronulla pack. However, with May still in the halves we’re certainly not ruling Cronulla out, and consider them good value at around $2.40.
• Over at the Roosters, we’re not terribly fussed whether James Tedesco backs up or not – the Titans’ defense is completely incapable of stopping anyone, with last weekend making it 8 games in a row they’ve conceded 20+, this time against a reserve grade Melbourne outfit. Here, they’ll be meeting a Roosters side who’ve made 6 or more line breaks in 75% of their matches this season, and who are getting Angus Crichton – arguably the in-form second-rower of the competition – back from suspension. Tedesco or not, this looks like a total mismatch.
• The Rabbitohs are certain to be without Origin stars Dane Gagai and Jai Arrow after Wayne Bennett omitted them from the squad, with the side’s other representatives (Latrell Mitchell, Damien Cook, Cameron Murray and Jaydn Su’a) possibilities. We don’t necessarily expect the full complement to back up three days after Origin, but given the current state of the Knights roster, we doubt it matters anyway. Newcastle have been completely decimated by injury (despite not drawing anywhere near the coverage of the Roosters’ supposed “injury crisis”), with the side currently missing a host of stars, including Mitch Pearce, Tyson Frizell, David Klemmer, Edrick Lee and (the one that matters) Kalyn Ponga. Ponga holds the key to the Knights’ competitiveness, with the side’s LBVOA dropping from 6.75% when he plays to -5.40% when he doesn’t. With the Knights sporting the 4th-worst defense in football, they are completely ill-equipped to win games with any sort of attacking drop-off. Once Ponga returns for their extraordinarily soft run home (they don’t play any current Top 8 teams in the final six weeks), they could be a sneaky shot to go on a tear; but this week, undermanned, and against a Souths side who’ve scored 26+ in 8 of 12 matches so far? Pass.
• After giving backing the Broncos to roll an out-of-sorts Dragons side last weekend and being made to look superbly stupid, it’s fair to say we won’t be doing that again here. However, with the Broncos currently at $3.25 and facing a Raiders side who’ve only won 1 game since Round 5 (heck, even Brisbane’s won 2 in that period), they surely have to be a value play, right? Perhaps the most frustrating part of tipping the Broncos (besides having to watch them play) is that they’re genuinely not bad while ever the game is competitive. Unfortunately, they just have the resilience of a wet paper towel. Take last weekend, for example. Through the first half they went punch-for-punch with the Dragons, going into the break trailing by just 10 metres, 1 line break and 6 points. The game couldn’t have been more even. But having conceded a deflating try on the bell (a try for which Jamayne Isaako has understandably  been relieved of playing duties), they went into full meltdown, getting smoked in the second stanza by 308 metres, 5 line breaks and 22 points. The difference in performance was chalk-and-cheese. And this seems to be a pattern for Brisbane – in all 3 of their wins (a small sample size, we know), they’ve been either winning or even at the break. In the only other 3 games they were leading at half-time (all against sides currently in the Top 8), they were extremely competitive, losing by an average margin of less than 6. But when they’ve gone into the sheds losing at half-time, they’ve subsequently lost mental touch with the game, losing by an average margin of 30.7. So, we’re sure you can see why we find Brisbane so frustrating – here’s a team good enough to compete with sides like Sydney, Penrith and Parramatta, but who immediately give up at the first sign of adversity. And so it becomes less about how good Brisbane are, and more an assessment of how much resistance their opponents will bring. In the case of the Raiders, the answer has lately been ‘not very much’, with the Canberrans giving up 18+ in their past 8 straight matches, and 30+ in 5 of those. If there’s a defense the Broncos should be able to put a few past, this is surely it. But with Kevin Walters once again reshuffling his halves (apparently the wheel stopped on Karmichael Hunt this week) and facing a hostile (and chilly) home crowd in Canberra, we just can’t be confident enough to tip them again head-to-head. But if you can get on them at $3.25, I suppose I’m ready to be hurt again.
• By Sunday, you’d have to think that most of the Origin players would be well recovered and a good chance of suiting up, making the Storm‘s sizeable Origin contingent less of an issue (although Christian Welch has already been ruled out with concussion). Funnily enough, the most significant out in this game has nothing to do with Origin – Reece Walsh copped a one-game suspension from the Warriors’ heartbreaking loss to the Cowboys, and will be sitting this one out. Outside of Tom Turbo at Manly, it would be hard to find a single player who has had as big an impact on his side in 2021 as Walsh. Since his arrival, the Warriors’ LBVOA has lifted from -14.89% (12th in the NRL) to 22.17% (3rd), with Walsh personally involved in 14 line breaks in just 6 games. This impact has lifted the Warriors’ attacking output by almost 1.5 tries per game, and has only failed to result in more wins due to the brutality of their schedule (they’ve played just 1 team outside the Top 8 since his arrival; a game they won against Wests). Once they get this week’s loss out of the way (and we love the kid, but they probably lose this game even with him; without him we’re not interested at all), they’ll get Walsh back, they’ll get Addin Fonua-Blake back (he’s actually named on an extended bench this week), and face just 3 current Top 8 sides in their final 11 games (one of which is against the Dragons, and as such is definitely winnable). In short, if you’re looking for a smokey to make the finals – this is your team. Just not this week.
•  There’s never been a flat-track bully quite like the Eels, and few teams are known for providing a flatter track than our old friends, the Tigers. Don’t be fooled by the Tigers’ chest-beating after holding the “Panthers” to just 6 points – that side was essentially a NSW Cup squad, and would have had the Tigers 12-all in the second half anyway were it not for a bizarre no-try ruling against Matt Burton for an “escort”. This is the same crummy defense that’s leaked 30+ on 7 separate occasions this year; the same crummy defense that’s conceded 5+ line breaks in 10 different games; the same crummy defense that got hammered for 36 points by this very same Parramatta team back in Round 4. The loss of Reed Mahoney will certainly affect the Eels’ offense, but not likely by enough to limit the Eels’ scoring opportunities against this defensive unit. So, the real question will be: do the Tigers have enough points in them to keep up? On one hand, they’ve now scored 26+ in their past 5 matches; on the other hand, 3 of those matches were against bottom-8 defenses, with the other 2 against severely depleted Dragons and Panthers sides. We don’t particularly rate the Eels’ D, and so we wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tigers nudge the 26 point mark again here. However, we strongly prefer the Eels’ forward pack, and accordingly expect Parramatta to have a smorgasbord of scoring opportunities, from which they should find enough tries to win. We expect a shoot-out, with Parra eventually pulling away (though taking Wests at $4 is probably a +EV play).
• The Bulldogs have yet to score more than 20 in a game this year, and have conceded less than 20 just once. Seriously, do you actually need us to tell you not to pick the Bulldogs? Fine. Don’t pick the Bulldogs. Ever.

Related NRL News & Posts:

• No Related NRL News

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 71/96 (74%) (Last week: 5/8)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Broncos
• Panthers
• Storm
• Eels

Notes

• Origin-affected rounds have long been a nightmare for the Broncos, who have seen their side annually decimated for as long as we can remember. Not any more though, with Brisbane set to be rewarded for their new-found mediocrity with relatively few Origin players. Indeed, we’re inclined to argue that Brisbane have actually gained more than they lost this week, with the absence of Payne Haas offset by the return of Matt Lodge, and the loss of Xavier Coates covered by the debut of highly-rated youngster Selwyn Cobbo. In addition, the Broncos also get back halfback Tyson Gamble, and second-rowers Alex Glenn and Jordan Riki. Gamble’s inclusion comes predictably at the expense of Anthony Milford, and should see the Broncos’ offense pick up where it left off prior to his suspension. In Gamble’s four starts this year, the Broncos’ LBVOA has improved from -23.70% without Gamble to -6.80% with him, and averaged 4 tries per game (admittedly -6.80% by definition isn’t good, but it should be noted that the Dragons have hit this mark in just 4 of 12 matches this season). This isn’t due to any great creativity from Gamble directly (he has just 1 try assist and 2 line break assists), but rather due to the direction and structure that he provides, making the players around him more effective (Jamayne Isaako in particular has been significantly more productive with Gamble in the side, producing 5 try assists and 5 line break assists in the 4 games with Gamble, and just 1 and 2 respectively in the 8 games without him). Perhaps the biggest ins for Brisbane though are Glenn and Riki (assuming Riki is promoted to the Top 17 by kick-off). Here, what stands out isn’t so much what they’ve done with the ball, so much as what they’ve done without it. Since losing Glenn to a calf injury, the Broncos have been forced to move Tevita Pangai to the edge, where his poor decision-making and lack of lateral mobility is easily exposed. Pangai has conceded a whopping 11 line breaks from just 12 starts this year; Glenn conceded just 3 from 6 starts, and Riki 5 from 10. Oh, and Glenn’s 6 games came against 5 of the 6 best offenses in the NRL (and also Canterbury), making his defensive numbers all the more impressive (as a team, the Broncos’ LBCVOA improves from 8.85% without Glenn to -4.38% with him in the team). If the Broncos can return Glenn and Riki to the edges, they’ll be better able to hide Pangai in defense (as much as one can hide a 190cm, 117kg behemoth), while still using him to batter the pathetic Dragons’ forward pack into submission. And yes, they are indeed pathetic. Not entirely of their own accord, mind you – in fairness, their entire starting back row of Tariq Sims, Tyrell Fuimaono and Josh McGuire is unavailable, and Trent Merrin retired mid-season – but nonetheless, they’ve been getting destroyed in recent weeks. A fortnight ago they were beaten by 182m by a Cronulla team who’d been outgained by an average of over 500m per game across the three weeks prior (in fact, St George somehow gave up over 100m to every member of the Sharks’ starting pack – a pack containing noted plodders Aaron Woods and Aidan Tolman – plus one of the benchies), before last week getting smoked for 375m by a Tigers side who had won the yardage battle just 4 times prior all season (and Saints would have again conceded over 100m to the entire starting pack – plus a benchie – were it not for Luke Garner falling 4m short; although it should be mentioned that the Dragons did manage to give him 9.6 metres-per-carry, so they weren’t too tough on him). Given the manner that these pretty ordinary packs have had their way with St George-Illawarra, we can’t help but wonder what Pangai, Lodge and John Asiata might be able to do to them if the Broncos aim up. Perhaps this is why Anthony Griffin has immediately recalled Jack De Belin into the side, despite not having played for the better part of two years (you’d expect most players would be told to do a lengthy stint in reserves while they regain match fitness; I guess De Belin’s just the kind of guy who won’t take no for an answer). In any event, we love this match-up for Brisbane’s forwards and can see them laying the platform for a huge boilover.
• Speaking of well-priced underdogs, the Tigers are looking like a decent value play this week as well at their current price of $2.75. They’re coming in off a dominant win over an under-strength Dragons outfit, and now have the good fortune of meeting a Panthers side missing no less than 8 regular starters. They should be extremely competitive here, and deserve to be closer to the $2 mark, given the sheer volume of troops Penrith are missing. Why then, are we stopping short of actually backing the Tigers head-to-head? I’m glad you asked. In short, it’s because despite missing half their squad, the side the Panthers are trotting out somehow still looks awesome. Their backline is essentially untouched, missing only the Mighty Mouse, Brian To’o (who has been incredible, but will be capably replaced by Robert Jennings). They have the luxury of trotting out a halves combination of Matt Burton and Tyrone May (and let’s face it – any halves combo spear-headed by Burton is better than one led by Luke Brooks). And their forward pack – despite missing four regular starters – is still stacked. They’re headlined by the best front-rower in the NRL, James Fisher-Harris (some may disagree, but they’d be wrong) and the best second-rower not named David Fifita (Viliame Kikau). And as for the four replacements: they have Spencer Leniu (10.2 metres-per-carry – more than any Tigers forward), Mitch Kenny (10 metres-per-carry – more than any Tigers hooker) and Scott Sorenson (ridiculously handsome – more than any Tigers player). Oh, and the weakest link is probably Matt Eisenhuth – the very same Matt Eisenhuth who was considered good enough to start 10 games for this Tigers pack in 2020. The only area where the Tigers appear to have a clear advantage is on the bench, with Penrith’s cubs having a combined 18 first grade appearances between them (and 17 of those are Jaeman Salmon). Michael Maguire seems to have identified this inexperience, and plans to welcome them to first grade with an absolutely enormous bench rotation (we don’t blame him – we’d do the same). But at this point, having seen the quality of player that’s been rolling off the Penrith production line for the past few years, can we even be confident that the Tigers have the advantage there? If Penrith were at full strength, we’d have them projected to score around 6 tries. Even if we halve that projection due to the mass of changes (and in all likelihood that may be too harsh on the young Panthers), the fact is that the Tigers would still need to find 3+ tries against a Panthers D who haven’t conceded more than 3 in a game all season, and whose edge combinations still look rock solid. The Tigers will give themselves a great chance if they can rip in while Penrith’s starters are off the field; if Penrith are in front once the main rotation returns, it’s probably curtains.
• Unlike the Tigers above, who we’re giving a huge shot at pulling off the upset, we do not feel the same way about the Titans against the remnants of the Storm team. The difference here is that the Titans’ D is on a whole different planet of awful compared to any other side in the league. The mass of players currently missing for Melbourne due to injury and Origin – a list that includes Cameron Munster, Harry Grant, Ryan Papenhuyzen and Josh Addo-Carr, among others – is virtually irrelevant against a D that hemorrhages points week after week. In giving up 38 points to Cronulla last weekend (a Cronulla side who had been held to 14 or less in 4 of their past 5), the Titans made it 7 weeks on the trot that they’ve conceded 20+. And that 7 weeks hasn’t been against a who’s who of attacking powerhouses – this period included facing the offenses ranked last, 3rd-last, 4th-last and 5th-last. Put simply, it doesn’t seem to matter at all how rubbish teams are in attack, they still manage to drop 20+ on the Titans with disturbing regularity. So why should we consider a reserve grade-level Storm side any different? It feels inevitable that the Gold Coast will give up a big total, and with David Fifita, AJ Brimson and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui all out, it’s hard to see how they can find enough points to then be competitive. Storm by plenty.
• The Knights will have won a lot of fans last weekend, when they were able to do exactly what the Eels couldn’t a week earlier – convert a lop-sided possession and field position advantage (in this case, 57% and a net yardage win of 346m) into a win against Manly. Unfortunately for Newcastle, bad luck has conspired to rob them of a serious chance to roll that performance into a bit of momentum. The issue here should be obvious – if they need that much footy and so much field position just to squeak out an 8-point win, how competitive will they be without it? They’re about to find out, as they run into a Parramatta side who sing from the same hymn book, but are virtually unaffected by rep footy (with good reason) and who prior to last week had earned 50% or more of the possession in their past 7 straight. To make matters worse, the poor old Knights will have to do it without the very players who laid such a good platform for them against the Eagles – David Klemmer (who came up with 195m), Daniel Saifiti (155m) and Tyson Frizell (134m) are all out due to injury or Origin. The Eels are not a side you want to run into without your best forwards – they rank 2nd in the league for RMVOA, and are getting back Reagan Campbell-Gillard, who had been in career-best form prior to his suspension. Given the fact that the Knights are already rolling with a reserve grade standard backline, it’s inconceivable to us that they can find a way to beat a Parra squad approaching full strength. And if the Eels do find a way to lose this game, it will be extremely embarrassing.

Related NRL News & Posts:

• No Related NRL News

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66/88 (75%) (Last week: 6/8)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Storm
• Warriors
• Tigers
• Panthers
• Rabbitohs
• Roosters
• Titans
• Sea Eagles

Notes

• The Broncos played really well last weekend to beat the Roosters, there’s no denying that. Their 5 errors were far and away their fewest in a game this year, and their forwards aiming up against an elite pack such as Sydney’s was impressive. That being said, if they replicate that level again this week, it won’t be enough to beat the Storm. In fact, it wasn’t really enough to beat the Roosters. You see, despite winning the game, the Broncos ultimately made fewer line breaks (4 vs 6) and tackle breaks (35 vs 38), despite making an extra 24 runs over the course of the game. Relatively speaking, they played well (their respective VOAs were their 3rd-best of the year in both categories), but ordinarily, these numbers wouldn’t be enough to win. And against Melbourne, they won’t be enough to win. They can pat themselves on the back for finding 4 line breaks, but the Storm have made more than 4 in their past 8 games straight, including a thumping 34-10 win over Canberra last weekend without their entire starting spine (this week, they welcome back Jahrome Hughes). And yes, 35 tackle breaks is good, but it’s also unlikely to be seen here – the Storm have missed more than 35 tackles in a game just once all season. Frankly, the Broncos were extremely lucky that their production last weekend netted them a victory. Their offensive production almost certainly decline here – despite an all-out attacking halves combo of Albert Kelly and Anthony Milford – and wouldn’t be enough to win, anyway. Poor old Milford is on a hiding to nothing in his return to the starting team, and will no doubt be once again scapegoated for their inevitable Thursday night pummeling.
• We warned you last week that we wouldn’t be getting swept up with Cowboys fever, and nothing in their underwhelming victory over Newcastle’s reserve grade outfit changed our position. The Cows were able to run up the score by abusing the absence of Bradman Best on one edge (they put 5 line breaks down the right edge; Best has personally conceded just 6 all season), and the worst edge pairing in the league on the other (Enari Tuala has the 7th-most line breaks conceded by any player in the NRL; Brayden Musgrove has leaked 8 in just 5 matches). They’ll have far less success this weekend facing a Warriors left edge that last week conceded 0 line breaks against the Tigers, and gave up just 1 to the Eels a week prior.We characterise the Cowboys’ recent output as that of a group of flat-track bullies, whereas the Warriors will be heading to Townsville looking increasingly like the real deal. In much the same way as Tom Trbojevic has turned around Manly’s attacking fortunes, star fullback Reece Walsh has got the Warriors absolutely humming. Since his arrival in Round 7, the Warriors have scored 18+ in every game he’s played – a period that includes facing the defenses ranked 2nd, 4th and 7th (the Cowboys, by the way, are ranked 12th). With Walsh, the Warriors are suddenly one of the NRL’s most exciting attacking units – an achievement made all the more incredible when you consider that they’ve been outgained in every game since he arrived, and won the possession battle just once. If the Warriors are posting these types of scores with poor field position and limited footy, what can they produce in more favourable conditions? We may just find out on Friday night, against a Cowboys pack that’s lost Jason Taumalolo, Francis Molo and Lachlan Burr. Though the Cows’ forwards have looked good of late, during Taumalolo’s six-week absence earlier in the season, the Cows were outgained in 4 of 6 matches, and had an average possession share of just 46.5%. With a starting pack featuring Mitch Dunn (7 metres-per-carry), Shane Wright (7 metres-per-carry) and Coen Hess (8-metres-per-carry), we doubt they’re able to go toe-to-toe with the Warriors’ bigs. And if New Zealand get the lion’s share of opportunities against this scrub defensive unit? Look out.
• We never love tipping the Tigers, and admittedly, we’re not doing it with a ton of confidence here. You just can’t feel comfortable picking a team that bleeds points the way the Tigers do (last week was the 7th time in 11 weeks they’ve given up 30+). That said, we think there’s room for optimism here. Obviously, the sheer volume of troops that the Dragons are missing should blunt St George-Illawarra’s attacking effectiveness (they get back Tariq Sims this week, but also lose Josh Kerr). Against a pretty ordinary Cronulla defense last weekend, the Dragons looked completely hopeless, managing just 2 tries and 3 line breaks (for comparison, even the Bulldogs managed to put 3 tries past Cronulla, and the Sharks had leaked 25 line breaks in their 3 games prior). And interestingly, the Dragons’ worst attacking game of the year – posting just 1 try and 2 line breaks in Round 8 – came against… the Tigers (and that was back when the Dragons were doing alright). Finally, for all their defensive faults, the Tiges have actually looked pretty decent of late with the footy, scoring 26+ in their past three games. If they manage a similar total here, it should be more than enough to get the job done.
• We’re not sure which is the more interesting team selection from Trent Barrett and the Bulldogs this week – rushing in the notoriously ineffective Josh Jackson for a date with the Panthers‘ league-leading forward pack, or rolling the dice on Jack “Mr. Sin-bin” Hetherington lasting the 80 minutes with the current high-shot crackdown? Either way, it’s unlikely to make much difference to the result, only the magnitude.
• The Saturday arvo clash between the Rabbitohs and Eels is looming as D-Day for two of the NRL’s fallen heavyweights. As recently as a month ago, most had these two sides firmly entrenched among the league’s elite (to be fair, The Obstruction Rule has never considered the Eels elite, but we were certainly buying into the Rabbits, and had reluctantly accepted that the Eels were firmly ‘OK’). However, serious questions are now being asked following embarrassing losses for both sides on the weekend. In the case of South Sydney, it wasn’t so much the loss that hurt – the Panthers are currently last start winners over every team in the league. But to lose 56-12 after getting their stars back (only Cameron Murray remained sidelined, and he’s back this week) highlighted exactly how far away the Rabbitohs are from the competition’s best. As for Parramatta, their loss exposed them for what they are – a bog average footy team, getting protected by a ferocious pack and lop-sided possession shares. Parra’s M.O is quite straightforward – camp down the opposition’s end and eventually break through from sheer weight of quality field position. This has obviously served them well – they’ve lost just 2 games all season – but wasn’t anywhere near enough against Manly. This was the third week on the trot that Parramatta have underwhelmed with a massive possession advantage. Against the Roosters three weeks ago, they managed just an 18-12 halftime lead, despite a 65% first half possession share (they ultimately got home courtesy of the referee-sanctioned murder of Drew Hutchison, which set off the chain of events that has since made the NRL borderline-unwatchable). The following week against New Zealand, they leaked 7 second-half line breaks, despite a 53% possession advantage. And finally, last week they somehow managed to turn a 58% first half possession share into a 16-6 first half deficit. For a team such as Parra who depend heavily on dominating possession in order to protect an otherwise mediocre defense, this is the stuff of nightmares – if they start struggling even with all the footy, how bad will it get when they eventually have to play without it? It’s hard to say, but their D is likely to be tested this week against a Souths side who have themselves won the possession battle in every game this year against opponents who aren’t Penrith or Melbourne. With a decent share of the footy, we still have plenty of faith in the Rabbitohs’ offense, particularly after seeing Brad Arthur curiously name Waqa Blake for another week (Blake was roundly torched on the right edge by Manly, and has conceded 4 line breaks in 3 games, vs Marata Niukore’s 5 from 8). If Blake found Brad Parker difficult to contain, wait until he gets a load of Latrell Mitchell and Dane Gagai. (SIDENOTE: We don’t understand why Damien Cook has been hammered in the press for his zero run effort against Penrith. Not only was it predictable – we explained last week that Penrith’s ruck dominance would take Cook out of the game – it was also smart on Cook’s part. Cook running after slow play-the-balls will only lead to low metres and mediocre service on the subsequent play; if anything he should be commended for being judicious in his choices of when to run. He has the 3rd-most runs among hookers in the NRL, and averages over 10 metres-per-tote – that doesn’t look like the numbers of a guy who’s scared of running. Sometimes good opportunities for dummy-half runs don’t present themselves; deal with it.)
• In much the same way as we don’t believe the Broncos were that good in beating Sydney last week, nor do we think the Roosters were that bad. Yes, Sam Walker was quiet by his lofty standards, and yes, their double-digit errors again put them under pressure (they have the 2nd-highest error-rate in the competition, behind Manly). But let’s be real, they still made more line breaks and tackle breaks than their opponent, and they did it despite spending a quarter of the game with Victor Radley in the sin-bin. Their offense is absolutely fine, and will only be better with the return of Josh Morris (Joseph Suaalii looked extremely smooth running the ball, but was repeatedly brought down by a fingernail. In short, he looked like a teenager playing against men – albeit a very talented one). After seeing the Raiders give up 34 points to the Storm’s Queensland Cup spine, it’s hard to see them putting up much resistance against the Roosters’ attacking unit. Canberra’s D just looks completely spiritless out there, and we’re at a loss to explain it. At some point they’ll turn it around, and who knows – maybe it’ll be this week. But we just can’t tip them until they show us something on the defensive side of the ball.
• The Sharks-Titans clash on Sunday arvo is actually a lot harder to tip than we expected at first glance. On one hand, you have Cronulla – a side who are flat-out scoring against anybody. Last week, they scratched out their first win since Round 4, managing a meagre 13 points against the empty husk of the Dragons. They’ve been held to 14 points or less in more than half their games, and have just 2 scores of more than 22. But on the other hand, you have the Titans – aka ‘The Worst Defense In Football’. They’ve conceded less than 16 points in a game just once, and have leaked 20+ in their past 6 games straight (including giving the Bulldogs their highest points total of the year last week). In this context, it’s actually really hard to pick a winner. You could argue that the influx of attacking players into Cronulla’s team should boost their attacking output (they get Jesse Ramien, Shaun Johnson, Siosifa Talakai and Ronaldo Mulitalo all back this weekend), though the biggest ‘in’ of the match is on the other side of the ledger (the irrepressible David Fifita). As it is, we’re tipping the Titans with the full expectation that this turns into a point-scoring feast, with a view that eventually Cronulla won’t be able to keep up. This should be a lot of fun, and may wind up being the game of the round.
• If you read up a few paragraphs, you’ll recall us highlighting the Knights’ left edge of Brayden Musgrove and Enari Tuala as the worst defensive edge in the NRL. Now remember that the Sea Eagles rank 5th in the league for LBVOA, and are just three weeks removed from an effort in which their right edge combined for 4 tries against the Warriors. Oh, and Manly also have Tom Trbojevic. Though the Knights do have the pack to dominate field position here, the Eels dominated field position against Manly, and it certainly didn’t help them.

Related NRL News & Posts:

• No Related NRL News

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 60/80 (75%) (Last week: 8/8)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Cowboys
• Warriors
• Sharks
• Titans
• Roosters
• Storm
• Panthers
• Eels

Notes

• During tonight’s game, there’s every chance that the Cowboys will be winning. You may even get the impression that they’re playing “well”. If you start having these kinds of intrusive thoughts, repeat the following mantra in your head: “North Queensland are not a good football team. North Queensland are not a good football team.” Many have been fooled by the Cows’ 3 tries and 6 line breaks against the typically stout Roosters’ D last weekend. But hold up: 2 of those tries and half the line breaks came in the period while Sydney had Sitili Tupouniua in the sin-bin. In the other 70 minutes, they mustered just 1 try and 3 line breaks – numbers much more in line with North Queensland’s typical attacking output (they’d made more than 3 line breaks in a game just 3 times before last weekend – against the defenses ranked last, 2nd-last and 4th-last). Similarly, the Cows might (finally) keep a team to under 18 points tonight (they haven’t managed it yet this year). But even if they do, that won’t mean their defense is suddenly good; it’ll mean that they’ve had the incredibly good fortune of drawing a Knights team decimated by injury and missing it’s three best players – Kalyn Ponga, Mitchell Pearce and Bradman Best. As a result, Newcastle is trotting out essentially their NSW Cup backline. And you know what? The Cows’ defense is so bad, we’re not even that confident that they’ll be able to stop them. We’re talking about a defense that’s leaked 6+ line breaks in 7 of 10 games this year (including against similarly reserve grade-standard offenses like Brisbane and St George-Illawarra). The Cowboys are enjoying an inflated ladder position, earned via a lucky streak in which they’ve won 3 of their 4 games decided by 6 points or less, and scoring more tries than they’ve made line breaks on 4 separate occasions (tied-most with Parramatta). That luck may continue tonight against a decimated Newcastle team, but if it does, we implore you not to believe the hype – the Cowboys are awful, and will inevitably drop down the ladder like a stone (and if they somehow manage to lose to the Maitland Pickers, don’t say you weren’t warned).
• While we were pleased with ourselves for tipping the Tigers upset win over Newie last weekend, we weren’t that blown away by what Wests actually produced. Yes, their opening quarter was incredible. But, their tries came from capitalising on an avalanche of opportunities provided by their opponent, who made 5 first half errors and lost the total penalty count 9-3. Without these repeated short fields to attack from, we’re not convinced the Tigers would have ever seen the other side of halfway. Their forwards got absolutely smoked, with James Tamou’s 7.2 metres-per-carry and Luke Garner’s 6.9 particularly poor. It won’t get any easier here, with this week’s opponent, the Warriors, significantly better at defending run metres than Newie (RMCVOA of 0.98% vs Newcastle’s 4.48%). Should they be stuck down their own end, there’s very little chance that the Tigers’ D will be able to withstand the attacking brilliance of the Warriors’ young prodigy Reece Walsh, who’s produced a ridiculous 7 try involvements in just 232 minutes of football this year (pray for the Tigers if Nathan Brown gives Walsh the start). Since Walsh arrived, the Warriors have seen their LBVOA explode from -16.74% pre-Walsh to 30.68% with Walsh (a figure that would place them 2nd in the league on the season). This jump has resulted in New Zealand scoring roughly 1 extra try per game, and posting 18 or more points in every game since he arrived (after hitting this mark in just 3 of 6 starts without him). We don’t just think the Warriors are too good for Wests, we actually think they’re suddenly a huge shot to make the playoffs.
• Despite going winless for over a month, the Sharks are in as good a spot as ever to get one over the Dragons this weekend. The return of Matt Moylan to five-eighth saw them post 4 tries against South Sydney (they scored 4 tries combined in the 3 games without him at #6), and the inclusion of Shaun Johnson on the extended bench gives them a sudden abundance of attacking options. But the most significant factor in this match is surely the annihilation of the Dragons’ roster after Magic Round madness. The Dragons are sorely lacking in players who bust through tackles, ranking 3rd-last for TBVOA. However, with Matt Dufty, Mikaele Ravalawa, Tariq Sims, Tyrell Fuimaono and Josh McGuire all sidelined, the Dragons have now lost the players ranked 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 7th on the team in tackle breaks. This leaves them completely starved of punch, and likely to be heavily dependent on assists in order to generate line breaks. And who leads the team in line break assists? The injured Dufty. Without Dufty, the Dragons suddenly become a lot more predictable, allowing Cronulla to focus their attention on limiting Ben Hunt and Corey Norman, who will already be up against it operating behind a beaten pack. It speaks volumes about how badly the Sharks are traveling that we’re still not super confident that Cronulla will actually get up; but they’ll never get a better shot.
• So, how bad are the Bulldogs? Well, they’re “blew a 4-point lead against a 12-man Raiders side who hadn’t won for 6 weeks” bad. It’s an absolute mystery how they managed to lose that game, but having seen it, we doubt we’ll be tipping them against anyone for the rest of the year. Meanwhile, although the Titans got smacked around by Penrith last Sunday, at this point it seems like everybody’s had a turn, and their performance actually showed a little bit of upside. The Titans’ 3 line breaks was the 2nd-most anybody has put on the Panthers this season, and they did it with just 45% possession. 3 against Penrith is worth about 10 against a porous Bulldogs defense that concedes over 6 per game on average. We suppose a David Fifita-less Titans is one of the more winnable games remaining on Canterbury’s schedule for a while (their next 6 straight games are against sides currently in the Top 8), but we still don’t rate them much of a chance. The Titans have been losing, but it hasn’t been for a lack of offense, it’s been because they keep conceding huge totals (they’ve leaked over 28 points in their past 5 games straight). With Canterbury yet to score over 18 in a game, we think the Titans should be pretty safe here.
• In this week’s edition of “Broncos’ Halves Roulette”, we see Kevin Walters calling up Albert Kelly from 2014 Souths Logan Magpies. If you’re a regular reader, you already know what we think of dropping Anthony Milford (HINT: Brisbane average 2.75 tries and a LBVOA of -11.62% with Milford, and 1.5 tries and a LBVOA of -20.12% without him), so let’s focus on the positives. Kelly’s been absolutely killing it in Queensland Cup, averaging 2 try assists per game. If he can replicate that form in the NRL (a huge “if”), Brisbane’s offense would be significantly upgraded. On the other hand, he was never considered a great defender during his time in the NRL (read: expect the Roosters to send a lot of traffic his way), and neither he nor Gamble have a particularly strong kicking game (we suspect Kelly likely takes over as the primary option). Against a team such as Sydney, who’ve scored 26+ in 7 of 10 games this year, we can understand Kevin Walters chasing Kelly’s attacking upside; we just can’t understand it coming at the expense of Milford (Milford at fullback could be a viable option for “all-out attack”, or even bringing him off the bench – he can’t possibly be less effective than Danny Levi). In any event, Brisbane likely get hammered again this week. But perhaps the appearance of Kelly may give Broncos fans a reason to tune in – if only out of curiosity alone.
• It says a lot about how far the Raiders have fallen that few would even consider tipping them this weekend against a Storm side missing their three best players (Cameron Munster, Harry Grant and Ryan Papenhuyzen). With the Storm’s spine decimated, surely they must be ripe for the picking, right? Perhaps, but it’s impossible to have any faith in Canberra to pull it off. The Raiders haven’t just been playing a long way below their best – they’ve been playing at a Bottom 4 level. Prior to last weekend’s win, they’d conceded 24+ in 5 straight games (Melbourne, by the way, have yet to concede more than 20 points in a game all year). Canberra finally ended the streak by conceding just 18 to Canterbury, but hold your applause – that 18 points and 6 line breaks were the most the Dogs have posted in a game this season, so it could hardly be considered a success. Even without most of their spine, we’d expect the Storm to be at least as dangerous with the ball as Canterbury, and likely much, much more. In replacing Grant with Brandon Smith and playing the 190cm back-rower Chris Smith at five-eighth, the Storm have telegraphed an intent to simplify their game and overpower Canberra through the middle third of the field (a job made easier by the suspension of Josh Papalii). Melbourne’s attacking plays will have to run predictably through Jahrome Hughes, but if Canberra’s defense spends all their time retreating, we doubt there’s much they’ll be able to do about it.
• Apparently punters have extremely short memories. That’s the only explanation we can muster for the Rabbitohs being currently priced at $3.50 against the Panthers. Don’t get us wrong – we do expect Penrith to make it 11-in-a-row on Sunday. But that sort of price for a Souths team with Latrell Mitchell in it is obscene. Sure, the Bunnies have looked pretty unimpressive in squeaking out narrow wins over mediocre opposition for the past month or so (not to mention getting pumped 50-0 by the Storm), but that was without Latrell. With Latrell, the Rabbitohs were a significantly better side, winning his last 5 starts on the trot, including a 26-16 win over the Roosters. The rugby league world readily accepts that the addition of Tom Trbojevic has transformed a spoon-level Manly team into a Top 8 contender. So, what difference can Latrell make to a team that’s actually good? Consider this: in Trbojevic’s brilliant 5-game campaign so far, he’s posted 26 tackle breaks, 11 line break assists, and 10 line breaks (outrageous). But if you cast your mind back to Latrell’s 6 games to open the year, you’ll find this: 35 tackle breaks, 10 line break assists, and 6 line breaks. These aren’t quite Turbo numbers, but they’re pretty darn close, and go some way to explaining why the Rabbits are so much better when Latrell’s playing. Now, to reiterate: we still expect Penrith to win. The Panthers match up extremely well with the Rabbits, due to their total domination of the play-the-ball, which in turn takes Damien Cook’s running game out of the equation (for further evidence of how this works, we go back two weeks to when Souths played the similarly ruck-dominant Storm, where Cook had 3 runs…total). With Cook disarmed, the Rabbitohs are forced to attack side-to-side, away from their own strengths (though it’s worth noting that during their period with Benji Marshall at #6, they were actually attacking the edges extremely well). This approach has proven successful for Penrith of late, winning their last 3 straight against Souths. But look at the margins of those games: 1, 8 and 4 – and in that last meeting, Latrell wasn’t even playing. Yes, Penrith should win, and yes, they deserve to be favourites (though nowhere near as short as they are). But write off Latrell and the Rabbits at your own peril.
• Speaking of strange prices, the Sea Eagles starting at $2.75 is equally as bizarre. Partly because they’ve got that Trbojevic fellow people have been talking about (not the giant slug; the good one). But also because the Eels‘ defense is no guarantee to stop him. Last weekend, the Eels missed 41 tackles and leaked 9 line breaks to the Warriors. Almost half that damage was inflicted by a prodigiously talented fullback in Reece Walsh (who made 3 line breaks, with a further 1 assist). If they couldn’t contain the roaming Walsh, it’s hard to be confident they’ll be able to slow down Tommy Turbo. For Parramatta to limit Manly’s offense, they need to pin Manly down their own end and suffocate them out of the game (as Penrith did to the Eagles three weeks ago). The good news here is that Parra are about as well-equipped as anyone to dominate a supremely mediocre Manly forward pack. With Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Junior Paulo and Isaiah Papali’i ably supported by Clint Gutherson and Blake Ferguson, the Eels have 5 players in their side with over 93 runs of 8+ metres this season. Manly, meanwhile, have zero. This consistency from their major metre-eaters creates the rolling behemoth that is Parramatta’s run offense, and explains why they’re ranked 2nd in the league for RMVOA behind Penrith (and why Manly are 11th). Manly’s meeting with Penrith was the only match since Turbo returned that Manly have been outgained, and unsurprisingly, was the only game they’ve lost (if Turbo is given any sort of field position to work from, look out). Penrith laid out the blueprint, and we would expect Parra to follow it (after all, they’ve outgained their opponents in 9 of 10 games this season). But it’s no guarantee, and should possession and field position end up roughly even, we’d actually give Manly the upper hand. This makes Manly’s price seem curiously generous, and this game look like the most intriguing of the round.

Related NRL News & Posts:

• No Related NRL News