NRL Tips – Finals Week Three, 2022
2022 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 130/196 (66%) (Last Week: 0/2)2021 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)2020 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)2019 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)2018 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)2017 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)- Cowboys by 12 – We’ve got to hand it to the Eels – after getting creamed through the middle third a week earlier by the Panthers, we expected more of the same against another monstrous pack, in the form of the Raiders. We were wrong. Parramatta clearly learnt their lessons from the Week One loss, in which they dialed back their offload-heavy style and tried to win through the middle (a bad idea at the best of times, given the limitations of Parra’s structured offense; completely suicidal against the best engine room in the league). In taking their mulligan, the Eels switched the offloads back on, making 19 (their 4th-most all year), and working their attack down the numbers channels, rather than straight into the teeth of Canberra’s middles (while the Eels’ props led the team in carries against Penrith, here it was their edge forwards Shaun Lane and Isaiah Papali’i leading the work, with an incredible 39 carries between them). This was brilliant coaching from Brad Arthur (we wouldn’t be surprised if Jason Demetriou tries singing from the same hymn sheet against Penrith on Saturday night), but a similar gameplan wouldn’t likely be successful against the Cowboys. While the Raiders’ run defense has an intimidating RMCVOA of -4.32%, the Cows’ is a more manageable -1.35% (suggesting that running through them can be a bit more productive, relatively-speaking). Further, the Cows have a noticeably more mobile pack, with middles like Reuben Cotter and Jordan Maclean not likely to be easily gassed and found out struggling to push across from the inside. This makes a second-phase heavy, side-to-side game plan probably less than ideal against the Cowboys. If Parra are to win here, they’re going to have to be in for the long haul, and be willing to grind away at North Queensland and play field position. Unfortunately, we’re not convinced they have the patience for it, and even then, they probably lack the defensive aptitude to play that type of game. The loss of Tom Opacic in particular cruels their chances in the grind, as the return to first grade of Bailey Simonsson will likely result in a Waqa Blake/Maika Sivo combo on the left, and Will Penisini/Simonsson on the right. If these combos sound familiar, you’re probably remembering them from opposition highlights packages, such as Canterbury’s 34-4 demolition of Parra in Round 14, or Brisbane pumping them 36-14 in Round 19. Though Opacic is hardly a world-beater, he’s easily the Eels’ best defensive outside back, and without him, there’s a very real risk that many of Parra’s recent defensive improvements are lost, and the game devolves into a bit of a shootout. That style of a game surely better suits the fitter, faster Cowboys, who’ll also be able to call on the home crowd to lift them home in the final quarter. We like North Queensland, and think they should do it reasonably comfortably.
- Panthers by 8 – You can consider us surprised that following the loss of Taylan May to a hamstring injury, the Panthers have (apparently) opted to recall winger Charlie Staines, swap Brian To’o over to the left wing, and play Staines on the right. For those of you with short memories, it was the Rabbitohs‘ success against Staines in their Finals Week One win over Penrith last season that resulted in Staines getting immediately dropped for the rest of the finals series, with Ivan Cleary preferring to play his best centre (Stephen Crichton) on the wing, rather than risk exposing Staines to anyone else. And yet, here we are, with Staines returning from the Netherrealm to face his conqueror. The good news for Staines (and everyone west of the M4) is that the player most likely to rip him apart down that edge – Alex Johnston – will be missing, after falling victim to a hip flexor injury. This likely leaves Richie Kennar to take his spot, playing just his second match of the season. Kennar had a good day out in his first match, scoring 3 tries in an underwhelming 40-28 win over the lowly Knights (though on the flip-side, he also missed 2 of his 5 attempted tackles and conceded a line break). He isn’t Johnston though, and in a match where the Rabbits are likely to struggle for points, the loss of the game’s best finisher could be extremely costly. The Rabbits have lost 8 of their last 9 against Penrith, scoring more than 20 points in a game just once in that period (a match in which Penrith were missing both Origin halves and James Fisher-Harris, and that the Panthers still somehow won, anyway). Our expectation is that the Panthers will starve the Rabbitohs of field position (we have them outgaining Souths by about 200m), particularly given the oddly small bench named for South Sydney. It’s probably partly out of necessity (Souths have lost key middles Tom Burgess, Liam Knight and Siliva Havili), but you’d expect a bench featuring a utility half, two edge players and a single middle would struggle to make any inroads against Penrith’s vaunted run defense (2nd in the league). They may yet sub Davvy Moale onto the bench to add some size, but given he ranks 236th in the league for metres-per-carry, we’re not sure he’d make a big improvement. We fully expect the Rabbitohs to be up for this game – how could they not be after losing to the same team in last year’s GF, and being routinely beaten by them year-in, year-out of late – but they’ve got it stacked against them, with some pretty major losses to overcome. They’ll have to really put Staines through the wringer if they’re to come away with the win on Saturday night.
Related NRL News & Posts:
NRL Tips – Finals Week Two, 2022
2022 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 130/194 (67%) (Last Week: 1/4)2021 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)2020 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)2019 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)2018 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)2017 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)- Raiders by 2 – We warned Eels fans last week that Parramatta’s only hope to compete with Penrith (and any other elite sides, for that matter) hinged on their ability to continue an absurdly good run of dominating possession (prior to that game, they’d earned 50%+ of possession in 7 of their previous 8, winning 6). As it came to pass, the Panthers denied Parramatta their typical smorgasbord of penalties. The Panthers had their 2nd-lowest total penalties conceded for the season, which – combined with Waqa Blake’s hands of stone – led to Parra being unable to win possession, and in turn, their inevitable demise. Unfortunately, winning the lion’s share of possession may not get any easier tonight against the Raiders – prior to Canberra’s upset win over Melbourne last weekend (which they managed despite losing possession 49-51), the Raiders past four possession totals were 51%, 53%, 57% and 57% – the sort of possession domination that the Eels typically enjoy. In fact, winning the possession battle has been every bit as important to Canberra’s success in 2022 as it has for Parramatta. Through the Raiders’ first eight games – a period in which they won just 2 matches – the Raiders won the possession battle just 3 times (games which accounted for both their wins, as well as a late collapse against the Warrriors). Since then though, they went on to win possession in 11 of their last 16 regular season matches, which allowed them to find success through a period when their football wasn’t terribly impressive, and build their form to a point where they were last week able to knock out the 2nd-best team in the league with a less-than-even share of the footy. In tipping Canberra here, we’re assuming that both sides’ recent form will continue, which would place the Raiders far enough ahead to win this game even without the majority of possession (and if they are able to earn the most possession, there’s a non-zero chance they could actually dish out a hiding). Over the past fortnight, the Eels’ offensive numbers have come to a grinding halt, producing just 4 combined tries and 5 combined line breaks against Melbourne and Penrith; compared to 14 and 12 for the Raiders vs Wests and the Storm. Granted, there’s an enormous talent gulf between the Panthers and Tigers, but the Raiders still dominated Parramatta for LBVOA (which adjusts for opposition quality) 16.92% to -33.67%. Of course, there’s no guarantee that either side continues their current trajectory; the Raiders recent numbers in particular came virtually out of nowhere (their 3 most recent LBVOA totals all place in their 7 best performances of the year). For this reason, our enthusiasm is muted, and we’re keeping the margin close – it wasn’t that long ago that Parramatta hung 28 points on Canberra, in what was their 3rd-best attacking effort of the year. If you think the Eels are likely to bounce back to form, we completely understand it – but if Canberra maintain their current form, even an in-form Parramatta mightn’t be enough.
- Sharks by 6 – In picking the Sharks, we’re opting to assume that both sides here will be regressing towards their season averages, which would give Cronulla a clear advantage. The Sharks come into this match with both the better offense (Offense VOA of 30.86% v 22.18%) and defense (Defense VOA of -22.58% v 6.49%), and the Rabbitohs are also forced to navigate the loss of key forward Tom Burgess (who leads all Souths front-rowers in run metres per game, with their 2nd-best metres-per-carry). However, be aware of one thing: the Sharks’ defensive numbers can be extremely volatile, and while on average they’re very good, in any given week (and last week’s putrid defense against the Cows is a perfect example) they can really stink it up – and the Rabbitohs’ offense is plenty good enough to torch any defense that doesn’t aim up. The Sharks have given up 20+ points on 8 separate occasions this season, losing 6 of those games – and running into a Souths team that’s scored 20+ on 18 separate occasions, this is extremely bad news if Cronulla don’t show up. The good news is that (unsurprisingly) most of Souths’ big scores have come against bad defenses – they’ve only faced above-average defenses 10 times all year, losing 6 of those. Further, in 7 of the Bunnies’ 10 losses this year, they’ve been held to 16 points or less. Taken together, this points to stopping the Rabbitohs’ offense being the secret to success for Cronulla. On average, they’re plenty good enough to do it (we’re talking about a Cronulla unit that’s held the Panthers to 4 line breaks, and Melbourne to just 2), but we can’t ignore the fact that there’s been plenty of days where they wouldn’t (this is also a unit that’s given up 9 line breaks to the Roosters, and 8 to the Broncos). The Sharkies have so far had more good days than bad days in 2022, so we’re going with that – but the range of outcomes here is admittedly extremely wide.
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NRL Tips – Finals Week One, 2022
2022 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 129/190 (68%) (Last Week: 4/8)2021 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)2020 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)2019 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)2018 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)2017 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)- Panthers by 14 – With the bizarrely pro-Eels media continuing to push the myth that Parramatta’s haphazard, offload-heavy offense is the secret to ripping through Penrith and Melbourne’s defenses, allow us to provide a counterpoint. If this theory were true, and the Eels’ use of second-phase play was the secret sauce to cutting up these elite Ds, the Eels would have been pumping out line breaks and run metres like nobody’s business, no? But as for what actually happened: setting aside the match against 12 Panthers following Nathan Cleary’s first quarter send-off (since in that instance, the key to generating line breaks was obviously having an extra player), the Eels mustered a LBVOA -5.47% and a RMVOA of 0.34% in the other 3 games – that is to say, their offensive production was at best about league average for teams facing Penrith and Melbourne, and arguably marginally below average. In fact, in the 3 matches against Penrith prior to the infamous Cleary send-off game, this unstructured Eels offense – that supposedly bothers the Panthers so much – mustered just a combined 4 line breaks across all three. Put simply, not only does Parra’s fast-and-loose attacking style not bother the Panthers, but there’s an argument that it’s been among the least successful attacking styles against the Panthers over the last two years. So how have the Eels been able to be competitive? The answer is simple: possession. In both meetings with Penrith this year, and the semi-final last year, the Eels won 53% or more of the footy. This has two effects – first, it gives more opportunities for their disorganised “offense” to create something (which in practive typically ends up meaning more opportunities for attacking kicks); and second, it reduces the attacking opportunities for Penrith, effectively providing additional protection to an otherwise bog average defense. This is great so long as they keep winning possession, but given their reliance on unusually high completion rates (they made single-digit errors in both matches against the Panthers, despite averaging marginally more errors per game than Penrith on the season) and winning the penalty count (they received 2 more penalties than Penrith in both earlier matches, but may be at risk from a home crowd influencing the ref here), it really shouldn’t be assumed that possession will continue to flow their way. And if it doesn’t? Well, the last time they earned less than 50% of the possession, they copped a 26-0 pasting off South Sydney. As it happens, we’re projecting them at about 50% on the nose, which should be more than enough for the Panthers to get it done.
- Storm by 10 – Unlike the aforementioned Parramatta myth, there probably is some degree of truth that the Raiders don’t mind playing Melbourne. In their two earlier meetings this season, the Raiders split them 1-1, while posting 2 of their best 6 LBVOA performances of the season. Importantly, their win came in Melbourne, against what was effectively a full-strength Storm outfit. This should give them reason for optimism heading into this knockout final, but isn’t enough for us to want to back them. As good as Canberra were that afternoon relatively speaking, they were nevertheless still outplayed – being outproduced for line breaks (6 v 4), run metres (1531 v 1408) and tackle busts (36 v 30). The Raiders thoroughly deserved to be competitive, but it’s debatable that they were even the best side on the day. Not only did Melbourne outperform Canberra across most stat categories, they did it despite losing Ryan Papenhuyzen to injury in the first quarter of the match, and while mired in the middle of what would become a 4-match losing streak. The Storm are in much better touch now, and even in losing their last two matches, they were still able to drop 5 line breaks a pop on their opponents. They get Jahrome Hughes back this week, and have a stack of successful finals experience to draw from. Though we agree that Canberra play their best footy against Melbourne, we just don’t think their best footy will be enough.
- Sharks by 4 – And here we come to one of the more genuinely bad matchups for a single team – the Sharks, and their 8-game winning streak against the Cowboys. The mismatch here stems from the Cowboys’ typical struggles to generate line breaks (they rank 9th in the league for LBVOA), running into Cronulla and their line break-generating machine of an offense (1st in the NRL). Admittedly the Cows have dropped plenty of big line break totals over the past month or so, but on closer inspection, we’re not sure how much weight we should be putting into these. They dropped 8 on Penrith’s NSW Cup team last weekend, in addition to putting 9 through the Warriors, 10 on Canterbury, 9 on St George, and 5 past the Tigers. The problem? One was a reserve grade side, and the others are all shit. In the few matches they’ve played against Top 8 sides over the last two months, they’ve lost all 3 (including one against this week’s opponent, Cronulla), while averaging less than 3 line breaks a game. The Sharks, by the way, have only produced less than 3 line breaks in a game once all season, and that came against the league’s best defense, Penrith (and in a game they only lost by 10 points, anyway). If North Queensland are to be competitive here it absolutely needs to come from a huge defensive effort, but their D has a tendency to be extremely volatile – in amongst a collection of superb defensive efforts, they have more than a few clunkers interspersed – and even if they do, will they have the points in them?
- Roosters by 6 – Having last week tipped the Roosters against the same opponent, at the same ground, in a match which they won, it should come as no great surprise that we’re going back to the well here. We remain firmly of the view that the Roosters are the more well-rounded of these sides, backing up a comparably high-octane offense with a Top 5 Defense (whereas the Rabbitohs prefer to back up their red-hot offense with hope and good intentions). However, this still isn’t a gimme. The loss of Joey Manu can’t be understated – while the press would have you believe that Joseph Sualii is the second coming of Dally Messenger, he actually trails Manu for both try involvements and line break involvements, while Manu also ranks 4th in the NRL for offloads, and 1st for tackle busts. For this reason, the return of Sualii and winger Daniel Tupou is unlikely to be enough to counter-balance the loss of Manu – however good the guys coming in may be, there’s no other outside back in the league who produces Manu’s level of impact. And if the Roosters find they can no longer match it with Souths for strike out wide, it becomes crucial that they win through the middle. In this area, it bodes well – they outgained Souths by 176m last weekend, with 4 forwards running for over 100m vs the Rabbitohs’ 3, and they did it with Jared Waerea-Hargreaves watching most of the match from the sideline with ice on his hamstring. If JWH does play (he’s been named, but is under a cloud), he and the returning Victor Radley will effectively be new additions to a pack that already dominated this group a week ago (and Souths have Cameron Murray under something of a cloud, as well). Consequently, we have the Roosters winning the yardage battle, and see the difference in field position balancing out what we expect to be the superior edge play from Souths, and providing the platform for Sydney to squeak out another tight victory.
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NRL Tips – Week 25, 2022
2022 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 125/182 (69%) (Last Week: 6/8)
2021 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)
2020 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)
2019 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)
2018 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)
Line Betting: (46%)
2017 Season Results:
Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%
Line Betting: 55%
(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
- Storm by 12 – Well, at this point we have to begrudgingly admit that the Eels are playing better than we anticipated. As recently as a couple of months ago, the Eels ranked dead last in Defense VOA, but as the season’s gone deeper, they’ve gradually improved to be a not-completely-embarrassing 9th. Given the fact that the defensive side of the ball has been our primary knock on Parramatta this season, the improvement is enough that we’re prepared to concede that when the dust settles, they will in fact be deserving of a Top 8 finish. Do they deserve to be in the same conversation as the competition heavyweights, like the Storm, though? Oh God, no. Sure, Parra’s D has steadily progressed from “woeful” to “below average”, but their offense still isn’t of a quality that’s likely to be good enough to mask their remaining defensive shortcomings. Let’s examine their recent big scores: over the past two months, they’ve dropped huge totals against Brisbane, Canterbury, Manly and Penrith. For three of those four sides, Parra’s “huge” score wasn’t even the single biggest score those sides have conceded in the past month; while for Penrith, they were torching a side who only had 12 men (and even then, they managed just 1 try in the second half). Around those games, they got nilled by Souths, and put just 14 on Brisbane (back when Brisbane were good). In fact, even while hanging 95 points on a pair of sub-standard opponents over the last fortnight, they weren’t even close to the best offense in the league over that period. Sure, they produced an impressive LBVOA of 34.70%, but that’s dwarfed by the 53.06% that the Storm produced over the same period, and the Storm also have a good defense. So yes, we admit that Parra are better than we gave them credit for – it’s the only reason we don’t have Melbourne by 20+.
- Sea Eagles by 8 – Picking a winner in the early Friday night contest is no easy feat, with the wheels having long since fallen off for both sides. At Manly, their defense has completely imploded since Rainbowgate, with Manly giving up an average of 42 points per game over the last four weeks (ouch). Yes, they’re missing a few troops, but their defensive standards have clearly slipped – up to and including the rainbow game, the Eagles had made 30 or more missed tackles in just 8 of their first 19 games; since that game, that done it in all 4 (averaging 36 per game). They’re giving up enormous metres (1500+ every week) and conceding more tries than they are line breaks (a reflection of the defensive limitations of their fullback options). Put simply, their D is absolutely shot. But on the other hand, they’re coming up against an offense that hasn’t made more than 17 tackle busts in any game over the same period, hasn’t run for 1300m, and has posted just 6 combined line breaks over the past month (we’d say that their offense has come to a grinding halt, but was it ever really moving in the first place?). 3 of the Bulldogs’ 5 worst performances this season in terms of LBVOA have come in the past 4 weeks, and their early-season form was so bad that it got Trent Barrett fired. Honestly, both these sides are so obviously finished, that the winner is likely to just be whoever turns up and plays remotely decent football. We’ve rolled with Manly on the assumption that they’ll get up to give Kieran Foran an appropriate send-off, but it’s far from guaranteed.
- Roosters by 6 – Meanwhile, the second Friday night game presents the polar opposite – two sides absolutely humming, playing the best football that either side has produced all year. Both sides have lost key players for this match – Daniel Tupou, Victor Radley and Lindsay Collins for the Roosters, and Damien Cook for the Rabbitohs – but they’re otherwise about as healthy as either side could hope to be this late in the season. Though the Roosters are missing more players, it’s arguable that the Roosters’ absentees are a little more replaceable – they’re able to slide Paul Momirovski and Siosiua Taukeiaho straight into the starting side, while Terrell May (1st among Roosters forwards for metres-per-carry) joins the bench. In contrast, the Rabbits lose a spine member in Cook, who’s replaced by the experienced – but stylistically very different – Siliva Havili. With Havili at hooker, the Bunnies lose the threat of speed from dummy-half, with Havili essentially just there to shovel balls on to his playmakers. He can do this capably enough, but it nevertheless makes defending Souths that little bit easier – in the 3 games Havili’s started, their LBVOA dropped from a league-best 30.31% to a pedestrian -0.79% (and before you ask: yes, Latrell Mitchell played in all 3 of those games). And if the Rabbits’ offense drops that little bit, we think that’s enough to give an edge to the more balanced Roosters, who not only bring a pretty handy offense themselves (just ask the Tigers), but also a significantly better defense (Defense VOA of -18.90% v 7.68%).
- Warriors by 6 – As with the Bulldogs/Eagles clash, the Warriors/Titans game appears to provide another match-up of two sides outside the 8, with essentially nothing to play for. Nothing to play for, that is, unless you’re the Warriors, because being back in Auckland means something to them. As dismal as the Warriors have been for most of this year, you can’t knock their efforts when they’ve been back home at Mt Smart. In those 3 games (vs the Tigers, Storm and Bulldogs), they’ve conceded just 2.3 tries per game, with a ludicrously good LBCVOA of -45.02% and TBCVOA of -32.24% (both of which if extrapolated across the whole season, would place them 1st in the competition). Their offense is… ok-ish, but playing at home they’ve so far had exactly the type of attitude that the Titans have been looking for all year. The Titans are probably marginally more talented, but in a match where only one side is likely to be giving it 100%, we’d rather be on that team.
- Broncos by 8 – This really should be a bit of a gimme for a Broncos side that spent almost the entire season embedded in the Top 8, but after losing 4 of their last 5 – including giving up 113 points in two weeks – a Brisbane win no longer feels like a foregone conclusion. The good news for Broncos fans though is that as extraordinarily bad as their D has been over the past fortnight, the Dragons‘ was actually worse. Yes, while the Broncos were copping back-to-back hidings and the Dragons were putting together 2 wins on the trot, the underlying numbers heavily favoured Brisbane’s defensive “performances”. Despite leaking 19 tries to the Dragons’ 8, the Broncos actually had a better LBCVOA (35.17% v 70.93%), RMCVOA (-0.53% v 10.81%) and TBCVOA (17.07% v 54.79%) – meaning that the difference between the Broncos’ historically awful points conceded total and the Dragons’ large-but-can-be-overcome tally was essentially just the calibre of offenses they faced (the Broncos faced the offenses ranked 1st and 6th; the Dragons the offenses ranked 10th and 14th). This being the case, we’re taking some heart in the fact that on the season, Brisbane have the better quality O (8th v 12th). We’re sure Brisbane will still give up a few tries, but if the Dragons defend at the same level they have been, Brisbane are a good shot to hang 30 on them.
- Cowboys by 10 – Without pretty much their entire regular line-up, only the most rusted-on Panthers fan would be giving their side a hope against the Cowboys. While we’re stopping short of actually tipping the Pennies, we are giving them a sporting chance of being competitive, and a huge shot at beating the 19.5 point start. The appeal in Penrith is partly in the quality of their reserve grade unit (there’s an argument that the forward pack Penrith are trotting out this weekend would beat a few NRL sides), but also the fact that the Cows tend not to completely bury inferior opposition. Outside of their 44-point creaming of the Warriors a fortnight ago (which was itself book-ended by two losses), they have a laundry list of wins in which they’ve outplayed but not annihilated weak opponents – 14 points over the Bulldogs, 26 over St George, 1 over Wests, 14 over Brisbane… and so on. The point here is that while the Cows are indisputably better than Penrith’s reserve grade unit, there’s an argument that they were similarly better than all the sides mentioned, yet they weren’t running up the score in all those games. Expect the Cows to win, but don’t be surprised if the Panther Cubs give a good account of themselves.
- Sharks by 16
- Raiders by 14
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