The Obstruction Rule

The latest NRL news, intelligent rugby league analysis, and innovative NRL statistics

The Obstruction Rule - Rugby league analysis, news, and VOA NRL statistics
  • VOA Ratings
    • VOA Explained
  • Features
    • Tips
    • Editorials
    • History
    • The Month In Review
    • The Greatest Game Of All
    • Culture
  • What Have We Learned
  • Teams
    • Brisbane Broncos News
    • Canberra Raiders News
    • Canterbury Bulldogs News
    • Cronulla Sharks News
    • Gold Coast Titans News
    • Manly Sea Eagles News
    • Melbourne Storm News
    • New Zealand Warriors News
    • Newcastle Knights News
    • North Queensland Cowboys News
    • Parramatta Eels News
    • Penrith Panthers News
    • South Sydney Rabbitohs News
    • St George Illawarra Dragons News
    • Sydney Roosters News
    • Wests Tigers News
  • Tips
  • About

NRL Tips – Week 15, 2022

June 16, 2022, 6:27 pm By Joel Leave a Comment

2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 69/108  (64%)  (Last Week: 6/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
  • Rabbitohs by 16
  • Cowboys by 10 – The Sea Eagles have looked a lot better the past two weeks, though at this stage it’s still not clear whether their spike in form was due to having their best half (Kieran Foran) running the show, or the fact they’ve played 2 of the Bottom 4 defenses over that period (we fancy it’s a little bit of both). While the Eagles would have been expected to post a few decent scores anyway considering the quality of their opponents, it should be noted that behind the more direct play style of Foz, they’ve played with a LBVOA of 29.08%, compared to -8.19% with Daly Cherry-Evans at halfback – which is significant, remembering that by design, VOAs account for the relative strength of opponent. Even more impressive is the fact that Foran has managed it during a pretty significant injury crisis (at least DCE got to play a few games with Turbo, for example). In any event, DCE is back here, and they’re facing a pretty significant leap in defensive class against the Cowboys. Together, that has us a bit down on the Eagles’ prospects of making it 3-in-a-row. We don’t necessarily buy into the idea that the Cows belong in the same tier as the competition juggernauts Penrith and Melbourne, but there’s no doubting that their defense at least has been first class for most of the year, with them having conceded 2 or fewer tries in a whopping 10 of 14 matches played. Given the Eagles’ typical struggles on defense (they’d leaked 20+ points in 6 straight prior to their fortunate fortnight against the competition cupcakes, in which they had the added benefit of defending without DCE, who happens to have leaked the most line breaks in the competition among all NRL halves), it’s hard to imagine the Cowboys not finding enough points to win.
  • Storm by 10 – Though the Broncos did a fabulous job to hang onto a narrow lead last weekend as Canberra came storming home (the tiring Broncos found themselves giving up over 10 metres-per-carry in the 2nd half, but nevertheless managed to keep a clean sheet), but as with Manly above, they’re facing a huge jump in class from Canberra to the Storm, and will have to do it without star halfback Adam Reynolds. The big concern for Brisbane here is their dependence on field position in order win games. With a dominant forward pack and ridiculous yardage production from their outside backs (they have 3 of their regular backline averaging over 10 metres-per-tote), the Broncos have recently been able to overcome a lack of creativity through sustained pressure attacking the opposition tryline (they average 4.5 tries per game when they’ve won the yardage battle, and only 3.3 when they lose it). This is good coaching that has Brisbane playing to their strengths, but we can’t help feeling like they’ll struggle when they run into elite run-stopping sides. Indeed, when facing teams with above-average RMCVOA (a category in which the Storm are the best in the league), they’ve won just 3 from 6. Without the benefit of sustained field position, we don’t believe the Broncos have the attacking spark to keep up with Melbourne at the best of times, let alone without Reynolds.
  • Sharks by 12 – After a promising defensive start to the season in which the Titans conceded 4 or fewer line breaks in their opening 6 matches, the Gold Coast seem to have reverted to their bad old days as they’ve watched their season gradually slip away. Before we knew it, they’d leaked 5+ in 6 of their last 8, including their past 4 consecutive games. The tragedy for Titans fans will be the unfulfilled promise of what could have been – of the 4 matches they lost during that strong opening 6 weeks, they never lost by more than 8, and if a few balls had bounced differently they could have been much better placed on the ladder, and perhaps this rot wouldn’t have set in. But it has, and running into a Sharks outfit ranked 1st in the league for LBVOA isn’t going to be kind to them. We’re saying Cronulla by 12, but with the caveat that if Cronulla get out in front early, this definitely has the potential to get ugly. The Titans just seem to have a bit of quit in them.
  • Panthers by as many as they feel like
  • Roosters by 4 – It’s somewhat surprising to us that after nobody (other than us) gave the Roosters a chance of beating the Eels when these sides met in Round 10, they’re sitting just about even with the bookies coming into their rematch (but we suppose getting pumped by Canterbury will have that effect). For what it’s worth, we still prefer the Roosters, though with perhaps a little less conviction than we had last time. For a start, we still vividly remember the Eels steaming home in that match, falling just 7 points short of what had the potential to be an historic comeback. Secondly, we’re a little bit concerned about the possible toll that the Roosters’ recent run of close losses may have on their mindset. Since Round 7, all 3 of the Roosters’ wins have come looking extremely comfortable, with them leading by 20+ at some point of each game. But in all but one of their losses (the flogging they copped off Penrith), they’ve been nailbiters, in which over and over again they’ve fallen agonisingly short. They haven’t played badly at all (they have above average VOAs for both offense and defense), they just haven’t been winning. If this sounds familiar, it’s because it’s following a similar pattern to what the Titans went through to begin the season (and we all know how that turned out). For this reason, we feel like it’s getting to be crunch time for the Roosters, and Trent Robinson will know exactly how important it is to actually get the chocolates in a competitive match with a contender. And what better “contender” to beat than the pretend one with the 3rd-worst defense in the league?
  • Raiders by 12 – While broadly speaking our provided tipping margin can be viewed as an indicator of our confidence in any particular tip, that isn’t so much the case here. For the record, we do feel pretty darn confident that the Raiders should handle the Knights without too much fuss. However, it’s near impossible to ever tip them by a huge margin given the ceiling that appears to be over their offense. Through 14 games, they’ve only scored more than 24 points twice, failing to exceed that mark even against defensive stragglers like the Gold Coast, Parramatta, New Zealand and Canterbury. Though Newcastle’s D frequently is terrible (they’ve leaked 30+ on 7 different occasions), we feel like the most likely outcome here is that the Raiders hit their points ceiling, and walk away comfortable (if underwhelming) winners 24-12.
  • Tigers by 1 – We don’t want to be the ones to immediately pour cold water on Bulldogs fans after their enjoyable win over Parramatta last week, we do feel a bit of responsibility to point out that their stats were – for the most part – terrible, and the result had far more to do with the Eels bombing opportunities than anything particularly positive that the Doggies were doing. The Bulldogs missed more tackles (30 v 24), gave up more line breaks (5 v 2) and got absolutely hammered for field position (they were tackled just 12 times in Parra’s red zone, compared to 36 the other way). They made double-digit errors for the 12th time this year, conceded a further 13 total penalties, and conceded 3 line drop-outs. On any other week, these numbers would result in them getting absolutely belted (as they typical do) – it was largely good fortune that they managed to fluke a brace of intercept tries and snatch another handful of tries from kicks, increasing the scoreboard pressure that likely contributed to the Eels’ bed-wetting. It was nice that they won, but they weren’t good. Of course, the Tigers aren’t good either – they’ve lost their past two games by a combined score of 74-22. But their last game before that? They beat this week’s opponents, the Bulldogs, 36-22 while beating them in just about every statistical category you can think of (tries, line breaks, tackle busts, run metres, handling, possession, etc etc). The Bulldogs get back Josh Addo-Carr compared to the side that Wests pumped a month ago, while the Tigers themselves are adding Adam Doueihi, Daine Laurie and Luke Brooks. That’s some fair reinforcement for the Tigers considering how much better they were the last time they met, so we’re choosing to stick by the Tigpies, no matter how bad the past fortnight has been.
Share:

Related NRL News & Posts:

  • No Related NRL News

Filed Under: NRL Tips and Previews, Tipping

NRL Tips – Week 14, 2022

June 10, 2022, 6:10 pm By Joel Leave a Comment

2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 63/100  (63%)  (Last Week: 3/4)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

  • Cowboys by 20+
  •  Rabbitohs by 6 – We’re tipping the Rabbitohs by a relatively conservative margin here in part because we’re not super confident that their Origin stars Damien Cook and Cameron Murray will actually play the full game, but also because Souths have shown themselves prone to the odd defensive clunker, even against the most inept attacking sides. In the last month alone we’ve seen the Bunnies give up 5+ tries in games against such anemic offenses as the Raiders (10th) and Warriors (15th). Though the Titans are similarly ordinary with the ball in hand (they rank 12th for offense), the Rabbitohs’ occasional tendency to give up scores to scrub sides has us tempering our expectations, just that little bit. With that being said, the loss of Jayden Campbell will be huge for the Gold Coast (he’s ranked 2nd on his team for tackle busts, despite having played just 7 games), with Justin Holbrook making the peculiar decision to replace him by moving AJ Brimson to the back, and bringing Paul Turner in at 6 (peculiar because Turner has spent most of his time in Q Cup playing fullback, so he could have been brought straight in without further disrupting their combinations). Anyway, it’s done now, and the Titans will likely be done too, by about 5 on Saturday arvo.
  • Storm by 2 – The Storm are probably deserved favourites here, coming in off a comfortable thrashing of Manly, while the Roosters arrive after a disappointing loss to Canberra. But while Jahrome Hughes’ return might have made Melbourne look a bit more like themselves, their numbers still have a long way to go before they’re back to being “Peak Melbourne”. While their LBVOA was back in the positives after a shambolic prior fortnight, it was a long way short of their prior highs (3.77% vs Manly, compared to 42.57% before Hughes went down). While above average, that’s actually lower than what the Roosters average for the season (16.81%), adding to the Roosters’ superiority in RMVOA (3.64% v -0.67%) and TBVOA (4.45% v -0.53%), meaning that at this stage, if you’re picking Melbourne it’s actually on the strength of their defense. Which is perfectly reasonable – on the season they rank 3rd vs the Roosters’ 6th, and unlike their O, the Storm’s D didn’t actually drop off significantly during Hughes’ absence. After a slow defensive start to the season in which the Storm gave up 3+ tries in each of their opening 3 games, Melbourne have hit that mark just 3 times since, compared to the Roosters, who’ve now leaked 3+ in their past 6 straight. Of particular concern for Sydney would be the fact that of the 6 times Melbourne have leaked 3+ tries, they’ve lost the possession battle in 4 of them, suggesting that earning a wealth of possession is crucial to putting a score on the Storm (as the Panthers and Cowboys recently did, behind possession shares of 61% and 55%, respectively). We say “concerning” because the Roosters have only earned 51% or more of the possession in 4 games all year. Which is why we do have the Storm winning here, but not by the sort of margin you may have expected, and we wouldn’t be shocked if the Roosters can even jag an upset.
  • Raiders by 2 – In what shapes as a really tight battle between two in-form sides, we were planning to give a slight edge to the Broncos until news broke this afternoon that the defensively questionable Kotoni Staggs is set to be replaced by Brenko Lee, whose defense is unquestionably shit. While Staggs is broadly considered a suspect defender, conceding 0.75 line breaks per game, Lee has so far this season leaked 1 per game… in reserve grade. He’s a guy who’s known for rushing out into strange positions and presenting opportunities for his opposition, and with him likely to be defending opposite Jack Wighton and the Raiders’ preferred attacking left edge, the extra opportunities he’ll present could easily be the difference between these teams. If you’re still not convinced, we may also give the Raiders an edge from the comparative freshness of their forwards – while Canberra’s sole Origin forward, Josh Papalii, only played 22 minutes on Wednesday, the Broncos’ engine room of Payne Haas and Patrick Corrigan got sapped for 58 and 64 minutes respectively, while Kurt Capewell (who played the full 80) is a confirmed OUT. As good as the Broncos have been lately (and they’ve admittedly been pretty darn good), a huge part of that has been the result of them dominating field position (they’ve outgained their opponent by 300m+ in their past 3 straight). This could be difficult to achieve behind a drained forward pack, and against a Raiders side ranking 3rd in the league for RMCVOA (only behind noted yardage-stoppers Melbourne and Penrith). If Brisbane are losing between the 20s – and we think they might be – that’ll limit their attacking chances, and increase Lee’s exposure to Canberra’s left-side attacking shifts. Which now has us leaning towards Canberra in a potential match-of-the-round.
  • Sea Eagles by 10 – Did New Zealand just play the Sea Eagles into a bit of form? Quite possibly, but it’s also possible that Manly are just better served letting Kieran Foran steer the ship. Working off the more direct style of Foran, Manly were busting through tackles at will, posting a TBVOA of 6.23% (good enough for 5th in the league). They posted their highest LBVOA since carving up the Tigers back in Round 9, leading to a season-high points tally of 44. Even the Eagles’ much-maligned forward pack got in on the action, with 4 Manly forwards running for over 100m (and no, Jake Trbojevic wasn’t one of them). There’s every reason to expect a strong encore showing here, with the Tigers ranking 2nd-last in the league for RMCVOA (they’ve given up 1350m+ in all but 4 games this season), and Manly further bolstered by the return of Taniela Paseka (who trails only Toafofoa Sipley for metres-per-carry among their forwards). We don’t necessarily think the Turbo-less Sea Eagles are amazing, but this is a bit of a cake matchup for them, and with North Queensland and Melbourne looming, this is an absolute must-win if they’re to keep hanging around near the bottom of the 8.
  • Panthers by 20+
  • Sharks by 14
  • Eels by 12 – Though we’re no fans of the Eels, we’re nevertheless tipping them here, such is the plight of the Bulldogs. It’s hardly a secret that Canterbury are terrible, and losing to essentially Penrith’s reserve grade side last weekend will have done little to shift that perception. But that doesn’t mean this game should be unwatchable. After failing to score more than 16 points in a game through their first 10 games, the Doggies have quietly posted 18+ in 3 straight under the guidance of Mick Potter (so much for the attacking genius of Trent Barrett). Of course, they’re still losing (leaking 30+ every week will do that), but with their recent uptick of points and a date with the 2nd-worst defense in the league (the Eels have managed to give up 20+ points in 9 of their 12 matches, yet for whatever reason nobody seems to have noticed), this match could at least have the potential for a bit of a points feast on Monday afternoon. Canterbury should still lose, but they might at least lose entertainingly.
Share:

Related NRL News & Posts:

  • No Related NRL News

Filed Under: NRL Tips and Previews, Tipping

NRL Tips – Week 4, 2022

March 31, 2022, 4:12 pm By Joel Leave a Comment

2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 12/24  (50%)  (Last Week: 4/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
  • Titans by 12 – We’ve verified from several sources and can confirm that it’s not a typo – the NRL have indeed willfully scheduled the Tigers to play Thursday Night Footy this week. Our best guess is that when the draw was being set this looked like one of the more winnable games for the Tigers, and in some ways we suppose it is. The Titans are generally a pretty accommodating defense, and have a nasty habit of conceding more points than their high-octane offense can run down. But we can’t ignore the fact that Wests are bringing their own league-worst defense into the contest, and are coming off a loss in which they mustered just 12 points against the NRL’s 2nd-worst defense – despite spending the late portion of the game against 12 men. Through the first few weeks the Tigers really have had nothing, and there’s no great reason to expect that to change tonight.
  • Sharks by 1 – The bookies have the Sharks as raging-hot favourites coming into this weekend, and with good reason. Cronulla turned in one of the best wet-weather performances of recent memory last weekend, driven by the flawless kicking game of Nicho Hynes. To somehow put 8 line breaks past a previously-solid St George-Illawarra defense in a torrential downpour was the sort of effort that should make the competition sit up and take notice. But let’s not write off the Knights too quickly. Sure, the 20-38 scoreline didn’t flatter Newcastle, but considering they were playing the title favourites and spent half the match with just 12 men, you could argue they did a superb job just staying competitive. If we consider that 38-point defensive effort an understandable outlier (considering their short-handedness), then we’re reminded that their D conceded just 10 points and 5 line breaks in the opening fortnight combined. The Knights’ defense should have already earned our respect, and is easily the best Cronulla have faced thus far. They also make over 3 fewer errors per game than the Sharks, which should put in them good stead for controlling possession in what shapes as another wet weekend of football. We’re not about to tip against the Sharks after what we saw last week, but we’re certainly not giving up on Newcastle, either.
  • Panthers by 8 – The Panthers have in recent times been an awful match-up for the Rabbitohs (they’ve won 7 of their past 9 meetings, including last year’s GF), driven largely by their gang-tackling style that has a habit of completely stalling opposition forward packs, which consequently takes Damien Cook out of the game (the Panthers held Souths to under 1200m in both their regular-season meetings last season, despite Souths averaging over 1500m over the year). Nothing’s changed on that front in 2022, with the Panthers averaging under 1200m conceded so far on the year, headlined by limiting Newcastle to just 1087m last weekend, despite Penrith being without half their engine room. They’re expected to get back their best player, Nathan Cleary, here, and one or both of James Fisher-Harris and Liam Martin should also return. That should be enough to see Penrith continue to improve, and frankly, they’re already pretty good.
  •  Broncos by 2 – We’re taking Brisbane, but not with a lot of conviction (their second half last weekend hardly inspired confidence), and on the assumption that Shaun Johnson – who has been named on an extended bench – isn’t playing. Should SJ play, we could be convinced to have a little flutter on the Warriors, largely on the back of their attacking upside if they ever get their best players on the field together. Until then, we’re not likely to seriously consider them – their defense is just so bad it should be easily picked apart by just about everybody.
  • Sea Eagles by 1 – Though the history books will show that Canterbury lost to the Sea Eagles last Sunday night, rugby league was the real loser, as dozens of fans across the country were treated to one of the most putrid games of “rugby league” we can recall. The two sides combined for an unbelievable 30 errors and 21 total penalties between them in just 80 minutes (which looked like being prolonged until Daly Cherry-Evans mercifully broke the deadlock and staved off golden point), leaving Four Pines Park ringing out with more whistles than a 1980s building site. We swore on the spot that we’d be taking a long break from tipping either of those sides, only to flip over the schedule and see the Raiders appear on Manly’s dance-card. As bad as Manly have been, we haven’t been at all impressed with Canberra either, whose record so far includes having a win gifted to them by Cronulla via 14 errors, getting smacked about by North Queensland (of all teams), before last week finding themselves in a 22-point hole before halftime. They rank 3rd-last for LBVOA, with -37.14% – a figure just a cigarette paper better than Canterbury, who didn’t seem to trouble Manly’s D too much last week. To be honest, we’re expecting another bludger of a game that should admittedly be competitive; but we live in hope that Manly’s studs will click into gear, at which point they’d be far too good for a pretty ordinary Canberra side.
  • Roosters by 4 – Credit where it’s due – the Cowboys defense has been vastly improved so far this season, having conceded just 4 tries through 3 games. That being said, this week’s game should be a huge leap up in difficulty. For a start, the Cowboys have won 50% or more of the possession in every game so far, which has the effect of limiting the time in which their defense is actually exposed. They may yet win the possession battle again (Sydney are notoriously error-prone), but it can’t be assumed, and almost certainly won’t be of the same magnitude as the 57% share they enjoyed against Brisbane. Secondly, it’s worth pointing out that the three games they’ve played have been against the offenses ranked last, 5th-last and 4th-last, so while their defensive results have been good, you could argue that they’re pretty much par for the course against these opponents. Take for example, Canterbury. Against the Bulldogs, the Cows held them to 2 line breaks. Against the same opponent, Manly held Canterbury to… 2 line breaks. And how many did the Eagles concede when they faced the Roosters? 7, on their way to getting pumped 26-12. Put simply, the Roosters are a different attacking beast, and we still have no faith in the Cowboys’ ability to sustainably score points.
  • Storm by 20+
  • Eels by 12 – We feel embarrassed at having tipped the Dragons last weekend, and won’t be making the same mistake twice. Yes, they looked better than expected through the first two rounds, but last Thursday night the clock struck midnight and they turned back into a pumpkin. Now, they’re forced to roll without the suspended Jaydn Su’a (who had been arguably their best player through the first fortnight), who is replaced by the defensively limited Jack Gosiewski. This is extremely bad news against an attack-first Eels team, who we expect to send a ton of traffic down that corridor.
Share:

Related NRL News & Posts:

  • No Related NRL News

Filed Under: NRL Tips and Previews

NRL Tips – Week 3, 2022

March 24, 2022, 4:44 pm By Joel Leave a Comment

2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 8/16  (50%)  (Last Week: 5/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
  • Dragons by 2 – A difficult tipping start to 2022 doesn’t get any easier to begin Week 3, with us feeling torn between the solid but unspectacular Dragons and the promising but not-quite-there-yet Sharks. We’re not in any way enamored with the Dragons’ O, and feel they have the look about them of a side who are good enough to take what their opponents give them, but little more. That being said, Cronulla do tend to give a bit – they’ve missed 77 tackles across the first two weeks (3rd-most in the league), and gave up 4 tries and 3 line breaks in Round 1 against a Canberra side who had absolutely nothing a week later against North Queensland. What’s holding us back from enthusiastically endorsing St George-Illawarra here is the spectacular 10 line breaks that the Sharks put through Parramatta last week. To be fair, the Eels’ D may just be terrible (they also gave up 7 in Round 1), and the Dragons’ D has been extremely efficient thus far, but it nevertheless gives us pause for thought. With the home ground advantage we’re taking St George to win through weight of possession, but we really don’t feel great about it.
  • Warriors by 1 – Another potential landmine lies waiting in the Warriors/Tigers clash. Neither of these sides has been at all good, and we currently have them measured as the two worst defensive sides in the league. That being the case, there should be plenty of room for both to sides to attack. To that end, losing five-eighth Jackson Hastings is unlikely to help Wests, while the Warriors should only improve as Reece Walsh gets more game time under his belt.
  • Rabbitohs by 6 – Though much has been made of the clunky-looking Rabbitohs attack through the opening fortnight, it should probably be pointed out that they’ve quietly accumulated 12 line breaks across that period – not bad for an offense that looks visibly frustrated (if that’s “struggling”, we’d love to know how Manly’s been going). We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: where you see a heap of line breaks, tries will typically soon follow. Will they arrive this week? Quite possibly. The Roosters have hardly looked themselves so far in 2022 either, missing 79 tackles across two weeks (almost double the Bunnies’ 41) and leaking 9 line breaks vs the Rabbitohs’ 6 (and the Rabbitohs have done it despite facing the electric Storm, too). It’s possible that Manly played Sydney into a bit of form last week through the sheer mass of opportunities that they presented, but they’d still need to earn field position against a Rabbitohs’ pack that has looked unstoppable so far. If one of these sides is likely to dramatically improve, we actually think it’s more likely to be Souths, as they settle in with a new halfback, and effectively a new fullback in Latrell Mitchell.
  • Panthers by 2 – Sure, the Panthers have looked every bit the best team in the comp through two weeks, but with Nathan Cleary and Moses Leota to be now joined by James Fisher-Harris, Brian To’o and Liam Martin on the sidelines, we’re starting to have flashbacks to some of the bog average performances Penrith turned in during last year’s Origin period (a period in which they lost a game 26-6 to Wests). We still can’t bring ourselves to tip against the defending premiers, but for the undefeated Knights to still be paying over $3 at time of writing feels a little bit disrespectful.
  • Storm by 12 – We touched on it earlier, but after giving up 9 tries and 17 line breaks in the first two weeks of footy, we’re genuinely starting to wonder – are the Eels just bad? They haven’t been particularly good on either side of the ball so far, and it isn’t likely to get any easier with an away trip to Melbourne. The only reason we aren’t tipping Melbourne by 13+ is the fact that they may be without a hooker, with Harry Grant and Tyran Wishart both ruled out due to COVID, and Brandon Smith considered unlikely due to a broken hand. If Cheese plays though, we wouldn’t rule out a thumping.
  • Titans by 10 – If you’re wondering which team has had the worst go-forward in the NRL so far, look no further than the Canberra Raiders, proud owners of a RMVOA of -20.00% – literally twice as bad as the second-worst team so far (surprisingly, Parra). The Raiders have run for a league-low 2,164 metres across two weeks, despite facing two sides – Cronulla and North Queensland – who are hardly known for their defensive starch (in fact, in these sides’ two other games they’ve played, they gave up a combined 2,960m). The Raiders’ defense has been the only thing keeping them in matches, but against the explosive Titans, that might be a tough ask.
  • Broncos by 2 – We wrote last week how unimpressed we were with the Cowboys’ offense, and jagging a few fluky tries off kicks hasn’t done anything to convince us otherwise. But we’ll give credit where it’s due – their defense has looked drastically better than in 2021, and as long as they’re able to stay on the right side of the possession ledger, that D should be good enough to keep them in matches. That being said, the Broncos’ offense was better with the addition of Adam Reynolds last weekend, and we expect them to be better again here. The way North Queensland attack, 3 tries may well be enough to get the win, and we fancy the Broncos should have that in them.
  • Sea Eagles by 6? – If Manly can’t beat the Bulldogs, there’s got to be some serious questions asked about whatever the heck is going on over at the Northern Beaches. They’ve been completely atrocious through two weeks, but have at least been able to argue that they’ve faced two of the competition’s better sides. If they somehow manage to keep stinking the place up here… actually, we’d prefer not to even think about it.
Share:

Related NRL News & Posts:

  • No Related NRL News

Filed Under: NRL Tips and Previews

NRL Tips – Week 2, 2022

March 17, 2022, 1:09 pm By Joel 1 Comment

2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 3/8  (38%)  (Last Week: 3/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

  • Storm by 8 – The Rabbitohs really weren’t as bad as the embarrassing result suggested, comfortably rumbling downfield and creating plenty of attacking opportunities (opportunities that they then squandered with uncharacteristic errors). We expect them to be better here – especially with Latrell Mitchell back – but unfortunately, the Storm are typically an awful matchup for Souths. Melbourne have long been the best team in the league for limiting opposition run metres (indeed, they held Wests to just 1265m last week, despite the Tigers enjoying a 56% possession share), and even without Christian Welch and Dale Finucane in 2022, we don’t see any reason to expect that to change. And as a general rule, if you can stop the Bunnies’ go-forward, you typically stop the Bunnies.
  • Panthers by 20+
  • Sea Eagles by 1 – Both these sides were comprehensively dominated last weekend, making this extremely tough to pick. You’d have to expect both sides to be better (they really couldn’t be any worse), but if one side is going to swiftly bounce back, we’re inclined to roll with the team with the most continuity. By and large, Manly look essentially identical to the team that stomped all over an under-strength Roosters outfit in last year’s Finals. The Roosters, meanwhile, look to have a lot of adjusting to do with a re-worked backline and spine (a spine that was again altered by the late loss of Sam Verrills last week). We love the talent of the Roosters’ group and fully expect them to be there when the whips are cracking, but they looked like they need time to build combinations. Manly, on the other hand, just looked like they needed a softer opponent.
  • Titans by 16 – The Warriors were our biggest disappointment of Week 1, as they rolled out a peculiar defensive structure that utilised the full width of the field, but at the cost of creating yawning gaps between defenders and ample one-on-one opportunities for attackers on the edges. This resulted in them getting carved up for 28 points by a St George-Illawarra side who only hit that mark 3 times all year last season. Against a Titans side with a bit of genuine attacking spark, we don’t feel at all good about their chances.
  • Eels by 8 – Cronulla weren’t terrible last week, they just gave Canberra far too many invitations into their own end. They’ll need to significantly improve their discipline against a Parra side who made single-digit errors and conceded just 2 combined penalties last week (compared to Cronulla’s 14 and 8, respectively), and who have the attacking nous to capitalise on strong field position. The matchup looks good for the Eels, but it’ll be interesting to see how quickly the new-look Sharks can improve.
  • Raiders by 6 – The Raiders were hardly amazing in victory last week, but the Cowboys were absolutely woeful. It’ll be hard to tip North Queensland against anybody until we see some signs of life.
  • Knights by 16
  • Broncos by 4 – Both these sides were more effort than ability last week, but we’re sure they’re both stoked to actually beat somebody. It’s hard to believe, but one of these two teams will be undefeated after two weeks of footy. What a time to be alive.
Share:

Related NRL News & Posts:

  • No Related NRL News

Filed Under: NRL Tips and Previews

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • …
  • 29
  • Next Page »
As featured on NewsNow: NRL news
NRL News 24/7

Latest Features

TOR in 2022

NRL Tips – 2019 Grand Final

TOR in 2019

Rabbitohs Need To Put Difficult Pre-Season Behind Them

End of an Era: No sunset ride for Thurston

The Month In Review: July ’18

The Month In Review: June ’18

The Month In Review: May ’18

Numbers Do Lie: Why Woods isn’t better than Campbell-Gillard (Or, why Michael Chammas should stick to reporting, and leave statistics to people who actually understand them)

The Month In Review: April ’18

More Features

Latest NRL Previews

NRL Tips – Week 15, 2022

NRL Tips – Week 14, 2022

NRL Tips – Week 4, 2022

NRL Tips – Week 3, 2022

NRL Tips – Week 2, 2022

More Tips & Previews

Email Updates

Sign up for The Obstruction Rule email updates and receive FREE VOA-based NRL line-betting tips for each round for the rest of 2018!




Top 5 NRL Offense VOA

Penrith38.02%
Melbourne37.82%
Cronulla34.80%
South Sydney19.63%
Parramatta17.26%

Top 5 NRL Defense VOA

Penrith-53.70%
North Queensland-29.56%
Melbourne-28.35%
Canberra-14.49%
Sydney-7.02%

Full sortable NRL VOA ratings

LIVE NRL SCORES

Friends of TOR

NRL Universe

Contact Us

Email Facebook Twitter Instagram

Search

This is an unofficial and independent source of NRL news and information not affiliated with any team(s) or the National Rugby League (NRL).

Copyright © 2022 · Metro Pro On Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in

The Obstruction Rule - The latest NRL news, rumours, previews and analysis