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NRL Tips and Previews: Round 5

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2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 22/32 (69%) [Last week: 6/8]

Margin Betting: 7/13 (54%) [Last week: 3/6]

2016 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 71%

Margin Betting: 54%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)

NRL Round 5 Tips and Previews

Bulldogs v Broncos

Offense VOA: Bulldogs -23.46% (14th), Broncos 24.55% (2nd)

Defense VOA: Bulldogs -6.60% (9th), Broncos -38.56% (3rd)

Round 5 opens with the under-fire Bulldogs hosting the Broncos, in what looks to be a bit of a mismatch.

The Bulldogs turned in one of the worst 80 minute performances in recent memory against Manly, completing a dreadful 69% of their sets on their way to a 36-0 hiding at Brookvale. The Bulldogs have been disappointing all season long, but they hit rock bottom in Round 4, leading to questions about coach Des Hasler’s tenure at Belmore. Unfortunately, it doesn’t get any easier for them in Round 5, as the Broncos ride into town.

In our recent Month In Review for March, we named the Broncos the early season pace-setters, and with good reason. They are the most complete team so far this year, ranking 2nd and 3rd in Offense VOA and Defense VOA respectively. Though they’ve faced the season’s most difficult draw, they’ve handled themselves with aplomb, as was evident in their composed performance in the face of a fast-finishing Raiders side, in the Broncos’ 13-12 win last weekend.

It’s hard to find an area in which the Bulldogs hold an advantage over the Broncos. The obvious answer would be to point to their pack, but the Dogs have been outgained in all but one match this year (their solitary win against the consistently disappointing Warriors). It’s hard to envisage the Bulldogs ordinary offense making any kind of dent in the Broncos reliable defense, so it’s similarly difficult to see them making a dent on the scoreboard.

Our tip: Broncos

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NRL Tips and Previews: Round 4

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2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 16/24 (67%) [Last week: 3/8]

Margin Betting: 4/7 (57%) [Last week: 2/4]

2016 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 71%

Margin Betting: 54%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)

NRL Round 4 Tips and Previews

[Editor’s Note: Before beginning this week’s previews, we wanted to address the “performance” of the officials in last week’s Panthers/Roosters game. Here at The Obstruction Rule, we typically abstain from criticising the match officials, because we understand that it’s often a thankless task; and without them, there’d be no game at all. On this particular occasion however, we’d have been better served with no game. The four on ground officials – and in particular, head referee Grant Atkins and touch judge Jeff Younis – robbed a crowd of 11,044 people, and many thousands more watching at home, of a game of football. The NRL has since admitted that the infamous match-winning pass was indeed forward, but that one play was just one in a litany of errors served up by the officials, turning the match from a contest into a farce. It would take longer than we’d wish to address them all, so we’ll just say this: if a horse performed that badly, they’d shoot it.]

Rabbitohs v Roosters

Offense VOA: Rabbitohs 6.54% (8th), Roosters 7.14% (7th)

Defense VOA: Rabbitohs 27.67% (13th), Roosters -13.21 % (6th)

Through the first two weeks of the season, South Sydney looked mediocre at best, getting toweled up by the so-bad-their-coach-got-fired Tigers, and snatching a comeback win from a depleted Manly. Some pointed to the absence of halfback Adam Reynolds for Souths’ woes, but his return only saw the Rabbitohs to an unconvincing win against an improving, but nevertheless poor, Newcastle Knights side. The Bunnies’ forward pack isn’t what it used to be, and the loss of George Burgess is only going to hurt them more. Add in the stifling Roosters defense (who rank 3rd in Run Metres Conceded VOA) and it could be another long night at the office for the South Sydney engine room.

The Roosters on the other hand, are sitting pretty alongside the Melbourne Storm at the top of the NRL Premiership ladder. Sure, they’ve been patchy at times during games, but they’ve still done enough to win their 3 matches so far, and that’s nothing to be sneezed at.

Against the Panthers, two of the Roosters back three looked sketchy under the high ball, and if the Rabbitohs are to be any chance here, they’d do well to repeat the Panthers’ tactic and kick it early and often to Shaun Kenny-Dowall and Michael Gordon. You can usually tell within minutes whether or not the enigmatic Kenny-Dowall has soaked his hands in dishwashing liquid for the game, and Gordon looked totally uncomfortable waiting for Cleary’s bombs, allowing the ball to bounce several times (he was spared an embarrassing try concession when Tyrone Peachey was ruled a step offside on one such occasion).

The Roosters look a long way from unbeatable, but they’re likely only just clicking into gear. If they get going, it’s difficult to imagine the Rabbitohs having any answers for them.

Our tip: Roosters

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NRL Tips and Previews: Round 3

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2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 13/16 (81%) [Last week: 6/8]

Margin Betting: 2/3 (67%) [Last week: 2/3]

2016 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 71%

Margin Betting: 54%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)

Storm v Broncos

Offense VOA: Storm 15.32% (5th), Broncos 39.94% (1st)

Defense VOA: Storm -50.55% (2nd), Broncos -61.15% (1st)

The opening match of the round sees the undefeated Melbourne Storm hosting the Brisbane Broncos, who are fresh off yet another barnburner of a Queensland derby.

The Storm did enough to win in New Zealand last week, going toe-to-toe with the Kiwis for a half of football, before blowing them away in the 2nd stanza. Though the Storm’s offensive VOA numbers are lower than what we’re used to seeing from them (but still very good), it’s worth noting that both of the Storm’s opening matches were played in atrocious weather conditions that weren’t at all conducive to attacking football. As a result, we suspect that the Storm’s numbers may be artificially deflated, and on what should be a clear night in Victoria’s capital, we hope to see Melbourne start to look a little bit more Storm-ish. It’s a strange state of affairs indeed when we’re looking forward to Melbourne for the weather…

The Broncos went down to the Cowboys in golden point last week, but were far from embarrassed. When you consider the strength of the Broncos’ two opening opponents (Cronulla and North Queensland), the Broncos’ performances have been nothing short of superb, and as a result we have them currently rated as the form team in the competition.

But form will only get you so far. At some point, the physical toll of two gruelling matches may come back to haunt the Broncos, and it may well be fatigue that ultimately separates these two sides on Thursday night. We can’t help thinking back to how flat the Cowboys were in last year’s Preliminary Final following these teams’ previous meeting, and wondering whether Brisbane might suffer the same fate. Add to this the return of Billy Slater, whose presence will allow Cameron Munster to return to five-eighth (where he trained for much of the off-season), and the possible return of the Storm’s forward leader, Jesse Bromwich, and there’s reason enough to suspect the Storm might have a little too much for Brisbane. However, we’d stop well short of calling this a foregone conclusion.

Our tip: Storm [Read more…]

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NRL Tips and Previews: Round 2

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2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 7/8 (88%)

2016 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 71%

Margin Betting: 54%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)

Roosters v Bulldogs

Offense VOA: Roosters 3.41% (10th), Bulldogs -31.84% (15th)

Defense VOA: Roosters 0.42% (10th), Bulldogs -8.87% (6th)

First up in Round 2 is the derby game between two of Sydney’s more fashionable clubs, the Roosters and the Bulldogs.

The Roosters were sizzling in Week One against the outmatched Titans, putting on a point-scoring clinic in the opening 40 minutes. Latrell Mitchell looks right at home in the centres, Michael Gordon fitted in beautifully, and all signs look positive for their new halves combination. On the back of that performance, the Roosters are deserving favourites with the bookies.

The Bulldogs on the other hand were outclassed in horrendous conditions by a more disciplined Storm outfit, and although the tens of fans who turned up to Belmore at 6pm (what was the NRL thinking when they scheduled that?) would have gone home disappointed, the Dogs showed some positive signs to build from. Defensively, they were outstanding, repeatedly turning the Storm away, despite frequently giving away cheap possession with poor ball control. Unfortunately, the offensive issues that plagued their 2016 campaign have resurfaced (and perhaps gotten worse). In attacking positions, they appear to have no set plays whatsoever (unless their set play is “get in a line and pass it one-by-one until we run out of space”, in which case they’ve nailed it), and their slow service to the kicker on the 5th tackle makes it difficult for them to put in decent attacking kicks. We think that the Bulldogs defense will stand up and make a game of this, but until they show something on offense, we’ll struggle to tip them.
Our tip: Roosters [Read more…]

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NRL Tips and Previews: Round 1

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2016 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 71%

Margin Betting: 54%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about. Then, be sure to sign up at the bottom of the page to get betting tips sent straight to your inbox!)

Sharks v Broncos

2016 Offense: Sharks 8.80% (7th), Broncos 41.80% (1st)

2016 Defense: Sharks -38.96% (3rd), Broncos -28.37% (4th)

The season hasn’t even begun and already these two sides have drawn their critics, largely due to their lackluster performances in the World Club Series.
The Broncos were completely obliterated in the opening 20 minutes by what should have been an outgunned opponent, which has (reasonably) led to criticism of their forward pack, and the question of how they’ll replace Corey Parker. In fairness to Brisbane though, although their forwards were dominated, they were missing their first choice props (Korbin Sims and Adam Blair), both of whom will be available here.
The Sharks, in contrast, lack the same reason for optimism. They sent what was essentially a full strength team over to Wigan, and got belted by a side few regarded as serious competition for the defending premiers. We expect Cronulla to acquit themselves better in the season opener, however their offense was patchy at times last year and without Ben Barba and Valentine Holmes it’s hard to feel confident that they have many points in them.
Our tip: Brisbane [Read more…]

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