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NRL Tips – Week 7, 2022

April 21, 2022, 4:55 pm By Joel 1 Comment

2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 30/48  (63%)  (Last Week: 5/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
  • Sharks by 20+ – If and when you read anything trying to convince you that the Sea Eagles are playing good footy, please feel confident dismissing it as either the work of a troll, or the incoherent babbling of somebody who hasn’t actually watched them play. To be frank, Manly were bad before Turbo got hurt, they’ve been bog average since, and whatever maroon-and-white mirage may have been created from their recent string of fluky and underwhelming wins is about to be shattered by a rapidly-growing Sharks-coloured juggernaut. Let’s  take a moment to reflect on Manly’s wins: a 1-point victory over the team currently running last; posting an impressive-seeming scoreline against the team running 12th, despite posting just 2 line breaks; inflating the score late against an injury-ravaged Newcastle side mired in a 4-game losing streak; and being matched for tries by a Gold Coast team who only turned in about 20 minutes of first grade-quality football. And they’re somehow supposed to be a threat to Cronulla? Here’s a fun fact: the Sharks have posted 6+ line breaks in their last 5 consecutive games. How many times this year have the Eagles hit that number? Zero.
  • Broncos by 8 – Given the disruption the Bulldogs have had to deal with in the lead-up to this game (losing a handful of regulars to COVID), in addition to the fact that they weren’t playing well even when these guys were available, it seems like a bit of a no-brainer to tip the Broncos here. That being said, it’s not as if Brisbane aren’t dealing with a few issues of their own. In addition to losing Ryan James and Jake Turpin, Kevin Walters has made the curious decision to tackle the long-term absence of Tesi Niu by handing a surprise fullback jersey to Te Maire Martin. In case you’ve forgotten who Martin is, he’s a former Kiwi Test five-eighth, who’s played 10 career games at the back, winning just 3. He’s a capable enough footballer, but throwing him out there to catch Matt Burton’s towering bombs without having even played a game of fullback in Queensland Cup is… an inspired choice. We still think Brisbane should be good enough to win, but don’t be surprised to see Canterbury relentlessly target Martin in the hope of being presented a few more attacking chances than they’d otherwise deserve.
  • Titans by 2 – You’d think at some point we’d get tired of tipping the Titans, and if they don’t get up here, we very well might. After watching the Titans phone it in for almost an hour before effortlessly waltzing through Manly’s defensive line (they ultimately finished with more line breaks and equal tries, losing the match on goals alone), you couldn’t help but be frustrated by the Titans’ delay getting started. After back-to-back fast finishes, we suppose you could argue that they’re just super fit and built to come over the top of opponents, if it weren’t for the fact that three weeks ago they did the exact opposite, blowing the Raiders off the park for 40 minutes, before doing nothing in the second stanza. Despite their patchy form though, we still find ourselves tipping them here because the numbers they’re able to pop from their brief periods of good form are still better than what the Cowboys post in 80 minutes. In last week’s losing effort, the Titans still notched up a LBVOA of 30.07% – better than North Queensland have managed in any game this season. It’s also worth noting that the Cowboys present as a uniquely nice match-up for the Titans’ offense, with the Gold Coast’s tackle break-heavy offense (they rank 4th in TBVOA) going head-to-head with the league’s worst defense for missed tackles. Particularly appealing is the Cowboys’ right edge, where Peta Hiku (15th-most missed tackles in the league) and Jeremiah Nanai (the most in the league, period) are located. Brian Kelly could be in for a day, and we wouldn’t be shocked to see David Fifita spend some time on that edge to have a crack at Nanai. The pieces are all there for the Titans – the question is just how long they can put it together for.
  • Rabbitohs by 10 – We’re not tempted to tip the Tigers here (and neither should you be), but we just wanted to take a moment to wrap their defense.  No matter how many pages of newsprint were wasted on the supposedly great performance of their halves, there was absolutely nothing impressive about their offense last week – their 4 line breaks against Parra were actually the fewest the Eels have conceded all season (and the Tigers needed 53% of the footy to even get those) – but their defense has actually been pretty decent all season. If we forgive a pair of floggings by Melbourne and Cronulla (and to be fair, a lot of teams are going to get toweled up by those two this season), they’ve managed to post a LBCVOA and TBCVOA of -48.34% and -22.01% respectively in their other four games. These incredibly good numbers in matches where they weren’t immediately destined to get smoked suggests that their D may actually be borderline-elite, up until the point that they give up (which mightn’t necessarily take long, since they’ve been held to 1 try or fewer in half their games, making just about any deficit feel insurmountable). This makes picking margins for Tigers games suddenly really tricky – their D looks good enough to contain the Rabbitohs to about 3 tries if they want to; but once the Rabbits get to 3 tries, the Tigers have bugger all chance of reeling them in, and it could get ugly. We’re giving them the benefit of the doubt here that on the back of their first win, they’ll compete for longer than most would be expecting.
  • Eels by 6 – We continue to be baffled by the mainstream media talking up the Eels as a supposed Top 4-calibre side. Let’s take a peek at their current Offense and Defense VOAs: with the ball, they have a VOA of 37.07% (3rd in the NRL); without it, they’re at 23.87% (3rd worst). These aren’t the numbers of a heavyweight contender – they’re essentially the numbers of the 2021 Titans (a team who nobody considered a serious premiership threat). Thankfully, the Knights’ sputtering offense isn’t likely to post more points than what Parra are capable of running down, but when the draw stiffens up in a couple of weeks, look out.
  • Panthers by 16
  • Roosters by 2 – If you’re wondering why we have this game projected so close, the answer lies in the Dragons posting their 3rd consecutive 6 line break performance last weekend against Newcastle (a stretch that also included facing South Sydney, so they haven’t all been gimmes). Unfortunately for the Dragons, their defense has been so consistently ordinary that they haven’t been winning many games, and if the losses are allowed to pile up, it’s probably only a matter of time before they quit on the season. But, last week’s win could give them a little bit of momentum, and their numbers so far haven’t actually been drastically worse than those of the Roosters. The Dragons actually rank 7th on Offense (vs the Roosters’ 8th), while that flips to 13th vs 10th on Defense. Reputations aside, this makes the Dragons’ current $4.50 price look incredibly tempting.
  • Storm by 20+
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Filed Under: Tipping

NRL Tips – Week 6, 2022

April 14, 2022, 4:22 pm By Joel Leave a Comment

2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 25/40  (63%)  (Last Week: 6/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
  • Raiders by 6 – If there was a positive for the Raiders in receiving a 30-16 dismantling from Melbourne, it’s in the fact that they finally managed to generate a few line breaks, with their 6 breaks their season-high, as well as just the 2nd time so far that they’ve managed more than 3. This should be comforting for Ricky Stuart, who watched his side struggle mightily against this opponent back in Round 2, being held to just 1 try and 2 line breaks. We fancy that the Raiders’ offensive uptick is coming at a fantastic time, coinciding with the Cowboys working through a minor defensive meltdown. After having conceded just 4 tries through their first 3 games, the Cows then went on to leak 10 over the past fortnight. Sure, the first blowout could be written off due to the quality of their opponent (the Roosters), to then get torched for 4 tries, 5 line breaks and 30 tackle busts by the Warriors (all of which are the Warriors’ season-highs) should be of serious concern. Consequently, the Cows have seen their LBCVOA collapse from a respectable -8.47% through the first 3 weeks (7th in the league) to a dismal 50.51% since (2nd last). Though the Cowboys will no doubt take heart from their win over Canberra four weeks ago, our feeling is that since that game, these two sides have been on two very different trajectories.
  • Rabbitohs by 20+ – Before you get too hung up on the absence of Latrell Mitchell, let us remind you that Latrell was also missing through their last four games of 2021 – a period that included upsetting the eventual premiers, and coming within a 40m field goal of sending the GF into extra time. And while that game was against arguably the best team in football, this game is against the ‘defending’ wooden spooners who’ve won 2 of their past 16, have yet to score more than 2 tries in a game this year, and are coming off a 20-point beat-down from the very same Penrith team that the Latrell-less Bunnies matched it with 6 months ago. Don’t overthink it.
  • Panthers by 20+ –
  • Titans by 2 – We mentioned last week that we’re not buying into the supposed resurgence of the Sea Eagles, and if you take your eyes off the scoreboard, you’ll see why. Last week’s win marked the 4th time in 5 games that Manly have been held to 3 or fewer line breaks, with their past two scores being propped up by tries from kicks. Besides being generally unsustainable over a long timeframe, scoring tries from kicks also requires a crucial ingredient: field position – something the Eagles are generally poor at generating. They narrowly won the yardage battle against Canberra and Canterbury – two of the worst teams in the league in this regard – courtesy of large possession shares (55% and 53%, respectively), and came over the top of Newcastle as the Knights’ in-game injuries took their toll. In Manly’s first two games though, they were outgained by over 1ooom. Granted, the Titans are hardly elite metre-eaters themselves, but what they are is surprisingly effective at attacking Manly’s defensive structure. In their last 9 meetings, the Titans have racked up 24+ in 6 of these, winning 5. Sure, they still managed to get rolled 56-24 in the last one, but their D has substantially improved this year (they’re yet to concede more than 4 line breaks in a game, and actually have an above-average LBCVOA) and they now have the good fortune of drawing a Sea Eagles side missing not only it’s best attacking player (Tom Trbojevic), but also a key defensive cog, Morgan Harper. Though we never feel terribly comfortable tipping the Titans, on paper this actually doesn’t look like a bad match-up for them at all.
  • Storm by 1 – To be clear, at this point we’re pretty much only tipping the Storm this week in line with our broader philosophy that “you’ll never go broke tipping Melbourne”. Objectively, there’s an extremely compelling argument that Cronulla could be the hottest the team in the competition right now, and are arguably playing better footy. Through five weeks, the Sharks actually lead the league in line breaks (7.2!), tackle breaks (40.6) and run metres (1476.4) per game, and they’ve managed it while seeing their defense steadily improve week-by-week (they’ve conceded fewer line breaks, tackle breaks and offloads with each passing week since Round 3, while conceding only 3 tries combined). At this point, the only reason they’re not yet our highest-rated offense is the standard of teams they’ve faced (they’ve beaten up on 4 Bottom-8 defenses, and against the lone Top-8 defense they’ve faced, they lost). This week is a huge test to see how they’re really traveling, and one that we fancy they’re probably up for. We intend to keep tipping Melbourne until proven otherwise, but be warned: the Sharks could fast be becoming the best team in the comp.
  • Roosters by 12 – In two matches with both Shaun Johnson and Reece Walsh together, the Warriors have as many wins, and have seen their LBVOA improve from -29.81% in the first three weeks to -5.74% since. We doubt whether that will be enough to keep pace with the Roosters, but it should give them hope that when they run into a softer part of the schedule, they might have the firepower to make up for their pretty ordinary defense.
  • Dragons by 4 – We can’t believe we’re tipping the Dragons either, but the Knights‘ past two weeks have been absolutely woeful, and they hardly have the kind of lengthy track record for us to turn a blind eye. No doubt a lot of their troubles have stemmed from absences, with David Klemmer, Lachlan Fitzgibbon and Mitch Barnett joining Jayden Brailey to give Newcastle two-thirds of an NRL-level forward pack unavailable. They get Klemmer back here, but even that gain has been somewhat offset by the loss of winger Dominic Young. With very little go-forward (they’ve been outgained by almost 900m over the past three weeks), the Knights’ offense has come to a grinding halt, scoring just 1 try in the past fortnight. The question, we suppose, is just how much of a difference will Klemmer alone make? Because for all their faults (and believe us, there are plenty), the Dragons are actually surprisingly decent at slowing opposition yardage, ranking 5th in RMCVOA. And if the Knights keep attacking the way they have been, they won’t be beating anybody – and that even includes the Dragons.
  • Eels by 20+ –
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Filed Under: Tipping

NRL Tips – Week 5, 2022

April 7, 2022, 4:16 pm By Joel Leave a Comment

2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 19/32  (59%)  (Last Week: 7/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

  • Knights by 10 – Though the talking heads may have convinced you that the Sea Eagles were ‘heating up’ after back-to-back victories, we’d suggest you check again. Nobody should have been impressed with them scratching out a 1-point win over Canterbury, and despite notching up 4 tries last week, their LBVOA of -49.82% was their lowest since Round 1, and was actually worse than Canberra’s (remembering that the Raiders had just a 45% possession share). The point we’re making here is that you shouldn’t be tipping against Manly this week because Tom Trbojevic isn’t playing – their offense was woeful even with him. Rather, the appeal of the Knights is in the fact that through four weeks they’ve been better than Manly, anyway. The Knights’ LBVOA for the season of 8.72% is higher than Manly have produced in any game this year, their defense has been consistently better than Manly’s (prior to getting smoked by the red-hot Sharks last week, the Knights had conceded just 2 tries across the opening fortnight, and held Penrith to just 4 line breaks while playing more than half the match with 12 men), and their superior RMVOA (-2.09% vs -3.27%) and RMCVOA (1.33% vs 4.06%) should give them better field position to work in. To top it all off, the Knights come in averaging just 16.75 combined errors/penalties conceded per game compared to Manly’s 20.75 – which, if they play to form, would also likely see the Knights grab the lion’s share of possession. In short, we’re not tipping Newcastle because Turbo’s not playing; we’re tipping them because, on form, they deserve it.
  • Cowboys by 1 – We said last week that the Roosters would provide the Cowboys’ defense with it’s first real test against an elite offense, and it proved to be a test they would fail spectacularly. Granted, they were inexplicably hammered with sin bins, but by any measure conceding 6 tries, 8 line breaks and 1600m is a bad day out. The good news for them is that the Warriors are not an elite offense (in fact, they rank 2nd-last). The bad news is that the Cows’ offense is bog average itself, and the loss of Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow isn’t likely to make it any better. As a result, we’re expecting a difficult, low-scoring exchange of attacking drudgery, in which the team with superior field position may be able to jag an extra try or two. To that end, the Warriors’ expected loss of Addin Fonua-Blake (who has been dropped to the reserves list) has swung us over to North Queensland. AFB is the kind of forward who’s difficult to replace at the best of times, but for the Warriors – who carry a pair of under-sized edge forwards in Euan Aitken and Bayley Sironen – it’s difficult to see where their go-forward will come from (AFB’s most capable replacement, Ben Murdoch-Masila, is also unavailable). So, they likely have to lift Matt Lodge’s carries (potentially dropping his already-inferior metres-per-carry), while also handing the ball off to a group of back-rowers averaging sub-8 yards-per-tote. The Cowboys, by the way, outgained their first three opponents by a combined 1004m. So, though we do consider these teams extremely evenly matched, we’re inclined to expect that North Queensland should have the better of the field position, and by extension, more opportunities to win the game.
  • Roosters by 20+ –
  • Storm by 18 –
  • Rabbitohs by 18 – Another in a string of games requiring relatively little thought this week (though now we’ve said that, we’re sure at least one of the raging hot favourites will fall into a crumpled heap), it’s worth noting that Jaydn Su’a – the Dragons’ best player through the opening fortnight – returns, pushing Jack Gosiewski out of the side. Though we don’t expect this to be enough to make the Dragons competitive with Souths, we do expect it to significantly improve their defense (after posting a solid LBCVOA and RMCVOA of 9.84% and -8.16% respectively through three weeks, those numbers collapsed in Su’a’s absence to 60.89% and 4.07%). As a result, we’re stopping short of tipping complete annihilation for the Red Vee.
  • Eels by 6 – When these two sides met in Round 1, we commented on how curiously short-priced the Eels were, and despite the Eels requiring 71 minutes to squeak out a lead, it seems nobody learnt their lesson. The Eels are once again unbackable favourites at $1.39, and we once again have no idea why. These two teams profile extremely similarly, with an electric offense (the Titans‘ Week 4 stinker notwithstanding) matched only by their… (what’s something extremely non-electric? Wood?)… wooden defenses (yeah, wood). As a general rule, the Titans are typically a safe bet for “worst defense in the league”, but get a load of these numbers (through just four weeks): 15 tries conceded, 33 line breaks conceded, 154 missed tackles. These aren’t the Titans’ stats… they’re Parramatta’s. Sure, the Eels’ offense can be a lot of fun, but their D is absolutely horrendous, and the Titans are more than capable of racking up tries on their day. We agree that we’d rather have the Eels here, but be warned – when these sides play, anything could happen.
  • Sharks by 20+ –
  • Panthers by 20+ –
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Filed Under: Tipping

NRL Tips – Week 4, 2022

March 31, 2022, 4:12 pm By Joel Leave a Comment

2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 12/24  (50%)  (Last Week: 4/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
  • Titans by 12 – We’ve verified from several sources and can confirm that it’s not a typo – the NRL have indeed willfully scheduled the Tigers to play Thursday Night Footy this week. Our best guess is that when the draw was being set this looked like one of the more winnable games for the Tigers, and in some ways we suppose it is. The Titans are generally a pretty accommodating defense, and have a nasty habit of conceding more points than their high-octane offense can run down. But we can’t ignore the fact that Wests are bringing their own league-worst defense into the contest, and are coming off a loss in which they mustered just 12 points against the NRL’s 2nd-worst defense – despite spending the late portion of the game against 12 men. Through the first few weeks the Tigers really have had nothing, and there’s no great reason to expect that to change tonight.
  • Sharks by 1 – The bookies have the Sharks as raging-hot favourites coming into this weekend, and with good reason. Cronulla turned in one of the best wet-weather performances of recent memory last weekend, driven by the flawless kicking game of Nicho Hynes. To somehow put 8 line breaks past a previously-solid St George-Illawarra defense in a torrential downpour was the sort of effort that should make the competition sit up and take notice. But let’s not write off the Knights too quickly. Sure, the 20-38 scoreline didn’t flatter Newcastle, but considering they were playing the title favourites and spent half the match with just 12 men, you could argue they did a superb job just staying competitive. If we consider that 38-point defensive effort an understandable outlier (considering their short-handedness), then we’re reminded that their D conceded just 10 points and 5 line breaks in the opening fortnight combined. The Knights’ defense should have already earned our respect, and is easily the best Cronulla have faced thus far. They also make over 3 fewer errors per game than the Sharks, which should put in them good stead for controlling possession in what shapes as another wet weekend of football. We’re not about to tip against the Sharks after what we saw last week, but we’re certainly not giving up on Newcastle, either.
  • Panthers by 8 – The Panthers have in recent times been an awful match-up for the Rabbitohs (they’ve won 7 of their past 9 meetings, including last year’s GF), driven largely by their gang-tackling style that has a habit of completely stalling opposition forward packs, which consequently takes Damien Cook out of the game (the Panthers held Souths to under 1200m in both their regular-season meetings last season, despite Souths averaging over 1500m over the year). Nothing’s changed on that front in 2022, with the Panthers averaging under 1200m conceded so far on the year, headlined by limiting Newcastle to just 1087m last weekend, despite Penrith being without half their engine room. They’re expected to get back their best player, Nathan Cleary, here, and one or both of James Fisher-Harris and Liam Martin should also return. That should be enough to see Penrith continue to improve, and frankly, they’re already pretty good.
  •  Broncos by 2 – We’re taking Brisbane, but not with a lot of conviction (their second half last weekend hardly inspired confidence), and on the assumption that Shaun Johnson – who has been named on an extended bench – isn’t playing. Should SJ play, we could be convinced to have a little flutter on the Warriors, largely on the back of their attacking upside if they ever get their best players on the field together. Until then, we’re not likely to seriously consider them – their defense is just so bad it should be easily picked apart by just about everybody.
  • Sea Eagles by 1 – Though the history books will show that Canterbury lost to the Sea Eagles last Sunday night, rugby league was the real loser, as dozens of fans across the country were treated to one of the most putrid games of “rugby league” we can recall. The two sides combined for an unbelievable 30 errors and 21 total penalties between them in just 80 minutes (which looked like being prolonged until Daly Cherry-Evans mercifully broke the deadlock and staved off golden point), leaving Four Pines Park ringing out with more whistles than a 1980s building site. We swore on the spot that we’d be taking a long break from tipping either of those sides, only to flip over the schedule and see the Raiders appear on Manly’s dance-card. As bad as Manly have been, we haven’t been at all impressed with Canberra either, whose record so far includes having a win gifted to them by Cronulla via 14 errors, getting smacked about by North Queensland (of all teams), before last week finding themselves in a 22-point hole before halftime. They rank 3rd-last for LBVOA, with -37.14% – a figure just a cigarette paper better than Canterbury, who didn’t seem to trouble Manly’s D too much last week. To be honest, we’re expecting another bludger of a game that should admittedly be competitive; but we live in hope that Manly’s studs will click into gear, at which point they’d be far too good for a pretty ordinary Canberra side.
  • Roosters by 4 – Credit where it’s due – the Cowboys defense has been vastly improved so far this season, having conceded just 4 tries through 3 games. That being said, this week’s game should be a huge leap up in difficulty. For a start, the Cowboys have won 50% or more of the possession in every game so far, which has the effect of limiting the time in which their defense is actually exposed. They may yet win the possession battle again (Sydney are notoriously error-prone), but it can’t be assumed, and almost certainly won’t be of the same magnitude as the 57% share they enjoyed against Brisbane. Secondly, it’s worth pointing out that the three games they’ve played have been against the offenses ranked last, 5th-last and 4th-last, so while their defensive results have been good, you could argue that they’re pretty much par for the course against these opponents. Take for example, Canterbury. Against the Bulldogs, the Cows held them to 2 line breaks. Against the same opponent, Manly held Canterbury to… 2 line breaks. And how many did the Eagles concede when they faced the Roosters? 7, on their way to getting pumped 26-12. Put simply, the Roosters are a different attacking beast, and we still have no faith in the Cowboys’ ability to sustainably score points.
  • Storm by 20+
  • Eels by 12 – We feel embarrassed at having tipped the Dragons last weekend, and won’t be making the same mistake twice. Yes, they looked better than expected through the first two rounds, but last Thursday night the clock struck midnight and they turned back into a pumpkin. Now, they’re forced to roll without the suspended Jaydn Su’a (who had been arguably their best player through the first fortnight), who is replaced by the defensively limited Jack Gosiewski. This is extremely bad news against an attack-first Eels team, who we expect to send a ton of traffic down that corridor.
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Filed Under: NRL Tips and Previews

NRL Tips – Week 3, 2022

March 24, 2022, 4:44 pm By Joel Leave a Comment

2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 8/16  (50%)  (Last Week: 5/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
  • Dragons by 2 – A difficult tipping start to 2022 doesn’t get any easier to begin Week 3, with us feeling torn between the solid but unspectacular Dragons and the promising but not-quite-there-yet Sharks. We’re not in any way enamored with the Dragons’ O, and feel they have the look about them of a side who are good enough to take what their opponents give them, but little more. That being said, Cronulla do tend to give a bit – they’ve missed 77 tackles across the first two weeks (3rd-most in the league), and gave up 4 tries and 3 line breaks in Round 1 against a Canberra side who had absolutely nothing a week later against North Queensland. What’s holding us back from enthusiastically endorsing St George-Illawarra here is the spectacular 10 line breaks that the Sharks put through Parramatta last week. To be fair, the Eels’ D may just be terrible (they also gave up 7 in Round 1), and the Dragons’ D has been extremely efficient thus far, but it nevertheless gives us pause for thought. With the home ground advantage we’re taking St George to win through weight of possession, but we really don’t feel great about it.
  • Warriors by 1 – Another potential landmine lies waiting in the Warriors/Tigers clash. Neither of these sides has been at all good, and we currently have them measured as the two worst defensive sides in the league. That being the case, there should be plenty of room for both to sides to attack. To that end, losing five-eighth Jackson Hastings is unlikely to help Wests, while the Warriors should only improve as Reece Walsh gets more game time under his belt.
  • Rabbitohs by 6 – Though much has been made of the clunky-looking Rabbitohs attack through the opening fortnight, it should probably be pointed out that they’ve quietly accumulated 12 line breaks across that period – not bad for an offense that looks visibly frustrated (if that’s “struggling”, we’d love to know how Manly’s been going). We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: where you see a heap of line breaks, tries will typically soon follow. Will they arrive this week? Quite possibly. The Roosters have hardly looked themselves so far in 2022 either, missing 79 tackles across two weeks (almost double the Bunnies’ 41) and leaking 9 line breaks vs the Rabbitohs’ 6 (and the Rabbitohs have done it despite facing the electric Storm, too). It’s possible that Manly played Sydney into a bit of form last week through the sheer mass of opportunities that they presented, but they’d still need to earn field position against a Rabbitohs’ pack that has looked unstoppable so far. If one of these sides is likely to dramatically improve, we actually think it’s more likely to be Souths, as they settle in with a new halfback, and effectively a new fullback in Latrell Mitchell.
  • Panthers by 2 – Sure, the Panthers have looked every bit the best team in the comp through two weeks, but with Nathan Cleary and Moses Leota to be now joined by James Fisher-Harris, Brian To’o and Liam Martin on the sidelines, we’re starting to have flashbacks to some of the bog average performances Penrith turned in during last year’s Origin period (a period in which they lost a game 26-6 to Wests). We still can’t bring ourselves to tip against the defending premiers, but for the undefeated Knights to still be paying over $3 at time of writing feels a little bit disrespectful.
  • Storm by 12 – We touched on it earlier, but after giving up 9 tries and 17 line breaks in the first two weeks of footy, we’re genuinely starting to wonder – are the Eels just bad? They haven’t been particularly good on either side of the ball so far, and it isn’t likely to get any easier with an away trip to Melbourne. The only reason we aren’t tipping Melbourne by 13+ is the fact that they may be without a hooker, with Harry Grant and Tyran Wishart both ruled out due to COVID, and Brandon Smith considered unlikely due to a broken hand. If Cheese plays though, we wouldn’t rule out a thumping.
  • Titans by 10 – If you’re wondering which team has had the worst go-forward in the NRL so far, look no further than the Canberra Raiders, proud owners of a RMVOA of -20.00% – literally twice as bad as the second-worst team so far (surprisingly, Parra). The Raiders have run for a league-low 2,164 metres across two weeks, despite facing two sides – Cronulla and North Queensland – who are hardly known for their defensive starch (in fact, in these sides’ two other games they’ve played, they gave up a combined 2,960m). The Raiders’ defense has been the only thing keeping them in matches, but against the explosive Titans, that might be a tough ask.
  • Broncos by 2 – We wrote last week how unimpressed we were with the Cowboys’ offense, and jagging a few fluky tries off kicks hasn’t done anything to convince us otherwise. But we’ll give credit where it’s due – their defense has looked drastically better than in 2021, and as long as they’re able to stay on the right side of the possession ledger, that D should be good enough to keep them in matches. That being said, the Broncos’ offense was better with the addition of Adam Reynolds last weekend, and we expect them to be better again here. The way North Queensland attack, 3 tries may well be enough to get the win, and we fancy the Broncos should have that in them.
  • Sea Eagles by 6? – If Manly can’t beat the Bulldogs, there’s got to be some serious questions asked about whatever the heck is going on over at the Northern Beaches. They’ve been completely atrocious through two weeks, but have at least been able to argue that they’ve faced two of the competition’s better sides. If they somehow manage to keep stinking the place up here… actually, we’d prefer not to even think about it.
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