The Obstruction Rule

2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 30/48  (63%)  (Last Week: 5/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Sharks by 20+ – If and when you read anything trying to convince you that the Sea Eagles are playing good footy, please feel confident dismissing it as either the work of a troll, or the incoherent babbling of somebody who hasn’t actually watched them play. To be frank, Manly were bad before Turbo got hurt, they’ve been bog average since, and whatever maroon-and-white mirage may have been created from their recent string of fluky and underwhelming wins is about to be shattered by a rapidly-growing Sharks-coloured juggernaut. Let’s  take a moment to reflect on Manly’s wins: a 1-point victory over the team currently running last; posting an impressive-seeming scoreline against the team running 12th, despite posting just 2 line breaks; inflating the score late against an injury-ravaged Newcastle side mired in a 4-game losing streak; and being matched for tries by a Gold Coast team who only turned in about 20 minutes of first grade-quality football. And they’re somehow supposed to be a threat to Cronulla? Here’s a fun fact: the Sharks have posted 6+ line breaks in their last 5 consecutive games. How many times this year have the Eagles hit that number? Zero.
• Broncos by 8 – Given the disruption the Bulldogs have had to deal with in the lead-up to this game (losing a handful of regulars to COVID), in addition to the fact that they weren’t playing well even when these guys were available, it seems like a bit of a no-brainer to tip the Broncos here. That being said, it’s not as if Brisbane aren’t dealing with a few issues of their own. In addition to losing Ryan James and Jake Turpin, Kevin Walters has made the curious decision to tackle the long-term absence of Tesi Niu by handing a surprise fullback jersey to Te Maire Martin. In case you’ve forgotten who Martin is, he’s a former Kiwi Test five-eighth, who’s played 10 career games at the back, winning just 3. He’s a capable enough footballer, but throwing him out there to catch Matt Burton’s towering bombs without having even played a game of fullback in Queensland Cup is… an inspired choice. We still think Brisbane should be good enough to win, but don’t be surprised to see Canterbury relentlessly target Martin in the hope of being presented a few more attacking chances than they’d otherwise deserve.
• Titans by 2 – You’d think at some point we’d get tired of tipping the Titans, and if they don’t get up here, we very well might. After watching the Titans phone it in for almost an hour before effortlessly waltzing through Manly’s defensive line (they ultimately finished with more line breaks and equal tries, losing the match on goals alone), you couldn’t help but be frustrated by the Titans’ delay getting started. After back-to-back fast finishes, we suppose you could argue that they’re just super fit and built to come over the top of opponents, if it weren’t for the fact that three weeks ago they did the exact opposite, blowing the Raiders off the park for 40 minutes, before doing nothing in the second stanza. Despite their patchy form though, we still find ourselves tipping them here because the numbers they’re able to pop from their brief periods of good form are still better than what the Cowboys post in 80 minutes. In last week’s losing effort, the Titans still notched up a LBVOA of 30.07% – better than North Queensland have managed in any game this season. It’s also worth noting that the Cowboys present as a uniquely nice match-up for the Titans’ offense, with the Gold Coast’s tackle break-heavy offense (they rank 4th in TBVOA) going head-to-head with the league’s worst defense for missed tackles. Particularly appealing is the Cowboys’ right edge, where Peta Hiku (15th-most missed tackles in the league) and Jeremiah Nanai (the most in the league, period) are located. Brian Kelly could be in for a day, and we wouldn’t be shocked to see David Fifita spend some time on that edge to have a crack at Nanai. The pieces are all there for the Titans – the question is just how long they can put it together for.
• Rabbitohs by 10 – We’re not tempted to tip the Tigers here (and neither should you be), but we just wanted to take a moment to wrap their defense.  No matter how many pages of newsprint were wasted on the supposedly great performance of their halves, there was absolutely nothing impressive about their offense last week – their 4 line breaks against Parra were actually the fewest the Eels have conceded all season (and the Tigers needed 53% of the footy to even get those) – but their defense has actually been pretty decent all season. If we forgive a pair of floggings by Melbourne and Cronulla (and to be fair, a lot of teams are going to get toweled up by those two this season), they’ve managed to post a LBCVOA and TBCVOA of -48.34% and -22.01% respectively in their other four games. These incredibly good numbers in matches where they weren’t immediately destined to get smoked suggests that their D may actually be borderline-elite, up until the point that they give up (which mightn’t necessarily take long, since they’ve been held to 1 try or fewer in half their games, making just about any deficit feel insurmountable). This makes picking margins for Tigers games suddenly really tricky – their D looks good enough to contain the Rabbitohs to about 3 tries if they want to; but once the Rabbits get to 3 tries, the Tigers have bugger all chance of reeling them in, and it could get ugly. We’re giving them the benefit of the doubt here that on the back of their first win, they’ll compete for longer than most would be expecting.
• Eels by 6 – We continue to be baffled by the mainstream media talking up the Eels as a supposed Top 4-calibre side. Let’s take a peek at their current Offense and Defense VOAs: with the ball, they have a VOA of 37.07% (3rd in the NRL); without it, they’re at 23.87% (3rd worst). These aren’t the numbers of a heavyweight contender – they’re essentially the numbers of the 2021 Titans (a team who nobody considered a serious premiership threat). Thankfully, the Knights’ sputtering offense isn’t likely to post more points than what Parra are capable of running down, but when the draw stiffens up in a couple of weeks, look out.
• Panthers by 16
• Roosters by 2 – If you’re wondering why we have this game projected so close, the answer lies in the Dragons posting their 3rd consecutive 6 line break performance last weekend against Newcastle (a stretch that also included facing South Sydney, so they haven’t all been gimmes). Unfortunately for the Dragons, their defense has been so consistently ordinary that they haven’t been winning many games, and if the losses are allowed to pile up, it’s probably only a matter of time before they quit on the season. But, last week’s win could give them a little bit of momentum, and their numbers so far haven’t actually been drastically worse than those of the Roosters. The Dragons actually rank 7th on Offense (vs the Roosters’ 8th), while that flips to 13th vs 10th on Defense. Reputations aside, this makes the Dragons’ current $4.50 price look incredibly tempting.
• Storm by 20+

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2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 25/40  (63%)  (Last Week: 6/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Raiders by 6 – If there was a positive for the Raiders in receiving a 30-16 dismantling from Melbourne, it’s in the fact that they finally managed to generate a few line breaks, with their 6 breaks their season-high, as well as just the 2nd time so far that they’ve managed more than 3. This should be comforting for Ricky Stuart, who watched his side struggle mightily against this opponent back in Round 2, being held to just 1 try and 2 line breaks. We fancy that the Raiders’ offensive uptick is coming at a fantastic time, coinciding with the Cowboys working through a minor defensive meltdown. After having conceded just 4 tries through their first 3 games, the Cows then went on to leak 10 over the past fortnight. Sure, the first blowout could be written off due to the quality of their opponent (the Roosters), to then get torched for 4 tries, 5 line breaks and 30 tackle busts by the Warriors (all of which are the Warriors’ season-highs) should be of serious concern. Consequently, the Cows have seen their LBCVOA collapse from a respectable -8.47% through the first 3 weeks (7th in the league) to a dismal 50.51% since (2nd last). Though the Cowboys will no doubt take heart from their win over Canberra four weeks ago, our feeling is that since that game, these two sides have been on two very different trajectories.
• Rabbitohs by 20+ – Before you get too hung up on the absence of Latrell Mitchell, let us remind you that Latrell was also missing through their last four games of 2021 – a period that included upsetting the eventual premiers, and coming within a 40m field goal of sending the GF into extra time. And while that game was against arguably the best team in football, this game is against the ‘defending’ wooden spooners who’ve won 2 of their past 16, have yet to score more than 2 tries in a game this year, and are coming off a 20-point beat-down from the very same Penrith team that the Latrell-less Bunnies matched it with 6 months ago. Don’t overthink it.
• Panthers by 20+ –
• Titans by 2 – We mentioned last week that we’re not buying into the supposed resurgence of the Sea Eagles, and if you take your eyes off the scoreboard, you’ll see why. Last week’s win marked the 4th time in 5 games that Manly have been held to 3 or fewer line breaks, with their past two scores being propped up by tries from kicks. Besides being generally unsustainable over a long timeframe, scoring tries from kicks also requires a crucial ingredient: field position – something the Eagles are generally poor at generating. They narrowly won the yardage battle against Canberra and Canterbury – two of the worst teams in the league in this regard – courtesy of large possession shares (55% and 53%, respectively), and came over the top of Newcastle as the Knights’ in-game injuries took their toll. In Manly’s first two games though, they were outgained by over 1ooom. Granted, the Titans are hardly elite metre-eaters themselves, but what they are is surprisingly effective at attacking Manly’s defensive structure. In their last 9 meetings, the Titans have racked up 24+ in 6 of these, winning 5. Sure, they still managed to get rolled 56-24 in the last one, but their D has substantially improved this year (they’re yet to concede more than 4 line breaks in a game, and actually have an above-average LBCVOA) and they now have the good fortune of drawing a Sea Eagles side missing not only it’s best attacking player (Tom Trbojevic), but also a key defensive cog, Morgan Harper. Though we never feel terribly comfortable tipping the Titans, on paper this actually doesn’t look like a bad match-up for them at all.
• Storm by 1 – To be clear, at this point we’re pretty much only tipping the Storm this week in line with our broader philosophy that “you’ll never go broke tipping Melbourne”. Objectively, there’s an extremely compelling argument that Cronulla could be the hottest the team in the competition right now, and are arguably playing better footy. Through five weeks, the Sharks actually lead the league in line breaks (7.2!), tackle breaks (40.6) and run metres (1476.4) per game, and they’ve managed it while seeing their defense steadily improve week-by-week (they’ve conceded fewer line breaks, tackle breaks and offloads with each passing week since Round 3, while conceding only 3 tries combined). At this point, the only reason they’re not yet our highest-rated offense is the standard of teams they’ve faced (they’ve beaten up on 4 Bottom-8 defenses, and against the lone Top-8 defense they’ve faced, they lost). This week is a huge test to see how they’re really traveling, and one that we fancy they’re probably up for. We intend to keep tipping Melbourne until proven otherwise, but be warned: the Sharks could fast be becoming the best team in the comp.
• Roosters by 12 – In two matches with both Shaun Johnson and Reece Walsh together, the Warriors have as many wins, and have seen their LBVOA improve from -29.81% in the first three weeks to -5.74% since. We doubt whether that will be enough to keep pace with the Roosters, but it should give them hope that when they run into a softer part of the schedule, they might have the firepower to make up for their pretty ordinary defense.
• Dragons by 4 – We can’t believe we’re tipping the Dragons either, but the Knights‘ past two weeks have been absolutely woeful, and they hardly have the kind of lengthy track record for us to turn a blind eye. No doubt a lot of their troubles have stemmed from absences, with David Klemmer, Lachlan Fitzgibbon and Mitch Barnett joining Jayden Brailey to give Newcastle two-thirds of an NRL-level forward pack unavailable. They get Klemmer back here, but even that gain has been somewhat offset by the loss of winger Dominic Young. With very little go-forward (they’ve been outgained by almost 900m over the past three weeks), the Knights’ offense has come to a grinding halt, scoring just 1 try in the past fortnight. The question, we suppose, is just how much of a difference will Klemmer alone make? Because for all their faults (and believe us, there are plenty), the Dragons are actually surprisingly decent at slowing opposition yardage, ranking 5th in RMCVOA. And if the Knights keep attacking the way they have been, they won’t be beating anybody – and that even includes the Dragons.
• Eels by 20+ –

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2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 19/32  (59%)  (Last Week: 7/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Knights by 10 – Though the talking heads may have convinced you that the Sea Eagles were ‘heating up’ after back-to-back victories, we’d suggest you check again. Nobody should have been impressed with them scratching out a 1-point win over Canterbury, and despite notching up 4 tries last week, their LBVOA of -49.82% was their lowest since Round 1, and was actually worse than Canberra’s (remembering that the Raiders had just a 45% possession share). The point we’re making here is that you shouldn’t be tipping against Manly this week because Tom Trbojevic isn’t playing – their offense was woeful even with him. Rather, the appeal of the Knights is in the fact that through four weeks they’ve been better than Manly, anyway. The Knights’ LBVOA for the season of 8.72% is higher than Manly have produced in any game this year, their defense has been consistently better than Manly’s (prior to getting smoked by the red-hot Sharks last week, the Knights had conceded just 2 tries across the opening fortnight, and held Penrith to just 4 line breaks while playing more than half the match with 12 men), and their superior RMVOA (-2.09% vs -3.27%) and RMCVOA (1.33% vs 4.06%) should give them better field position to work in. To top it all off, the Knights come in averaging just 16.75 combined errors/penalties conceded per game compared to Manly’s 20.75 – which, if they play to form, would also likely see the Knights grab the lion’s share of possession. In short, we’re not tipping Newcastle because Turbo’s not playing; we’re tipping them because, on form, they deserve it.
• Cowboys by 1 – We said last week that the Roosters would provide the Cowboys’ defense with it’s first real test against an elite offense, and it proved to be a test they would fail spectacularly. Granted, they were inexplicably hammered with sin bins, but by any measure conceding 6 tries, 8 line breaks and 1600m is a bad day out. The good news for them is that the Warriors are not an elite offense (in fact, they rank 2nd-last). The bad news is that the Cows’ offense is bog average itself, and the loss of Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow isn’t likely to make it any better. As a result, we’re expecting a difficult, low-scoring exchange of attacking drudgery, in which the team with superior field position may be able to jag an extra try or two. To that end, the Warriors’ expected loss of Addin Fonua-Blake (who has been dropped to the reserves list) has swung us over to North Queensland. AFB is the kind of forward who’s difficult to replace at the best of times, but for the Warriors – who carry a pair of under-sized edge forwards in Euan Aitken and Bayley Sironen – it’s difficult to see where their go-forward will come from (AFB’s most capable replacement, Ben Murdoch-Masila, is also unavailable). So, they likely have to lift Matt Lodge’s carries (potentially dropping his already-inferior metres-per-carry), while also handing the ball off to a group of back-rowers averaging sub-8 yards-per-tote. The Cowboys, by the way, outgained their first three opponents by a combined 1004m. So, though we do consider these teams extremely evenly matched, we’re inclined to expect that North Queensland should have the better of the field position, and by extension, more opportunities to win the game.
• Roosters by 20+ –
• Storm by 18 –
• Rabbitohs by 18 – Another in a string of games requiring relatively little thought this week (though now we’ve said that, we’re sure at least one of the raging hot favourites will fall into a crumpled heap), it’s worth noting that Jaydn Su’a – the Dragons’ best player through the opening fortnight – returns, pushing Jack Gosiewski out of the side. Though we don’t expect this to be enough to make the Dragons competitive with Souths, we do expect it to significantly improve their defense (after posting a solid LBCVOA and RMCVOA of 9.84% and -8.16% respectively through three weeks, those numbers collapsed in Su’a’s absence to 60.89% and 4.07%). As a result, we’re stopping short of tipping complete annihilation for the Red Vee.
• Eels by 6 – When these two sides met in Round 1, we commented on how curiously short-priced the Eels were, and despite the Eels requiring 71 minutes to squeak out a lead, it seems nobody learnt their lesson. The Eels are once again unbackable favourites at $1.39, and we once again have no idea why. These two teams profile extremely similarly, with an electric offense (the Titans‘ Week 4 stinker notwithstanding) matched only by their… (what’s something extremely non-electric? Wood?)… wooden defenses (yeah, wood). As a general rule, the Titans are typically a safe bet for “worst defense in the league”, but get a load of these numbers (through just four weeks): 15 tries conceded, 33 line breaks conceded, 154 missed tackles. These aren’t the Titans’ stats… they’re Parramatta’s. Sure, the Eels’ offense can be a lot of fun, but their D is absolutely horrendous, and the Titans are more than capable of racking up tries on their day. We agree that we’d rather have the Eels here, but be warned – when these sides play, anything could happen.
• Sharks by 20+ –
• Panthers by 20+ –

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