The Obstruction Rule

2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 3/8  (38%)  (Last Week: 3/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Storm by 8 – The Rabbitohs really weren’t as bad as the embarrassing result suggested, comfortably rumbling downfield and creating plenty of attacking opportunities (opportunities that they then squandered with uncharacteristic errors). We expect them to be better here – especially with Latrell Mitchell back – but unfortunately, the Storm are typically an awful matchup for Souths. Melbourne have long been the best team in the league for limiting opposition run metres (indeed, they held Wests to just 1265m last week, despite the Tigers enjoying a 56% possession share), and even without Christian Welch and Dale Finucane in 2022, we don’t see any reason to expect that to change. And as a general rule, if you can stop the Bunnies’ go-forward, you typically stop the Bunnies.
• Panthers by 20+
• Sea Eagles by 1 – Both these sides were comprehensively dominated last weekend, making this extremely tough to pick. You’d have to expect both sides to be better (they really couldn’t be any worse), but if one side is going to swiftly bounce back, we’re inclined to roll with the team with the most continuity. By and large, Manly look essentially identical to the team that stomped all over an under-strength Roosters outfit in last year’s Finals. The Roosters, meanwhile, look to have a lot of adjusting to do with a re-worked backline and spine (a spine that was again altered by the late loss of Sam Verrills last week). We love the talent of the Roosters’ group and fully expect them to be there when the whips are cracking, but they looked like they need time to build combinations. Manly, on the other hand, just looked like they needed a softer opponent.
• Titans by 16 – The Warriors were our biggest disappointment of Week 1, as they rolled out a peculiar defensive structure that utilised the full width of the field, but at the cost of creating yawning gaps between defenders and ample one-on-one opportunities for attackers on the edges. This resulted in them getting carved up for 28 points by a St George-Illawarra side who only hit that mark 3 times all year last season. Against a Titans side with a bit of genuine attacking spark, we don’t feel at all good about their chances.
• Eels by 8 – Cronulla weren’t terrible last week, they just gave Canberra far too many invitations into their own end. They’ll need to significantly improve their discipline against a Parra side who made single-digit errors and conceded just 2 combined penalties last week (compared to Cronulla’s 14 and 8, respectively), and who have the attacking nous to capitalise on strong field position. The matchup looks good for the Eels, but it’ll be interesting to see how quickly the new-look Sharks can improve.
• Raiders by 6 – The Raiders were hardly amazing in victory last week, but the Cowboys were absolutely woeful. It’ll be hard to tip North Queensland against anybody until we see some signs of life.
• Knights by 16
• Broncos by 4 – Both these sides were more effort than ability last week, but we’re sure they’re both stoked to actually beat somebody. It’s hard to believe, but one of these two teams will be undefeated after two weeks of footy. What a time to be alive.

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2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 149/201 (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)  

• Panthers by 1 – The Panthers are generally the best team in the league at both tailoring their offense to specifically attack Des Hasler’s umbrella defense, as well as shutting down Tom Trbojevic by starving the Sea Eagles of field position. That said, the loss of Nathan Cleary is significant, especially given the attacking limitations we’ve seen from his replacement Sean O’Sullivan in the past. A coin flip.
• Sharks by 2 – With new look halves combinations for both sides, we don’t really have an informed opinion on how either side is likely to play. On paper the Sharks look marginally better, but a trip down to Canberra is never pleasant.
• Rabbitohs by 12
• Roosters by 16
• Warriors by 1 – We’re getting on the Warriors train early this year, even against the annual April Premiers. The loss of Reece Walsh has taken away a lot of our enthusiasm, but the return of Shaun Johnson shouldn’t be underestimated – you need only look at Cronulla’s splits with/without SJ last season to realise that he remains one of the most influential players in rugby league (they won 5/10 with SJ – which improves again to 5/7 when he played halfback – and won just 4/14 without him), and he should be the best player on the field here.
• Storm by 20+
• Eels by 2 – It looks like the punters were super impressed by the Eels‘ thumping of a half-empty Penrith side in their final trial hit-out (we’re talking about practice!). Forgive us if we hold up on fawning all over Parra just yet. Yes, they ought to be favourites, but the current price on the Titans ($3.20) looks extremely tempting for a side that was one bad pass decision away from knocking over the Roosters in the finals the last time we saw them. We won’t be at all shocked if the Titans make this one competitive.
• Cowboys by 4 – Both sides have had a lot of roster churn through the off-season, and both look to be better off for it. We’ll probably need a few weeks to gauge how much either side has improved, and in the meantime we’ll stick with the Cowboys and their home field advantage.

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2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 148/200 (74%) (Last week: 1/2)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Panthers

Notes

• When you consider how short-priced the Panthers were as favourites when these sides met three weeks ago, it’s a bit of a surprise to see this year’s decider relatively evenly priced, even allowing for the fact that the Rabbitohs ran out winners 16-10 in that match. Since that particular evening (in which the Panthers actually out-gunned the Bunnies for line breaks, 5-4), Penrith have done nothing but totally shut down their past two opponents, conceding just 2 tries in as many matches (both from kicks) with an absurd LBCVOA of -50.00% over that fortnight (for comparison, the Rabbitohs’ was -10.33%).  Yes, the Rabbitohs won the last meeting between these sides, but most would agree that the Rabbitohs turned in one of their best performances of the season to pull that off (it was just the 5th time all season they’ve held a team to 1 try or fewer – something the Panthers have achieved a whopping 9 times), and yet they still required the Panthers’ bungling of multiple try-scoring opportunities to get over the line. If Souths at their best only just edge Penrith playing at something approaching their worst (the Panthers squandered plenty of chances, but they reserved their most inept attacking display for the following week against Parramatta), then surely the most likely result is a Penrith victory here – either because the Rabbitohs are just a little bit worse than they were in Finals Week One, or because the Panthers are just a little bit better. And to be fair, we fancy everybody knows it, too. Which is why the arguments being trotted out for why Souths will win are wide and varied, and include just about any reason you can think of other than actually being better at football than Penrith. Such reasons may include:
  • Penrith are too tired after playing 3 tough games in a row: To be fair, we don’t doubt that the past few matches must have taken some kind of toll on the Panthers. But that being said, when you consider the fact that these guys play some 24+ matches over a season with just the single bye, you can’t help feeling like the physical toll of playing three consecutive matches gets a little bit overblown at this time of year. And regardless, the overwhelming majority of the Panthers have played so little football in the past three months, you could make the argument that several may only now be approaching peak match fitness. Of the 17 who’ll be playing in the GF on Sunday night, only Matt Burton, Jarome Luai, Viliame Kikau and Liam Martin have not had at least one week off since Round 20, with 8 of Penrith’s Grand Final having had at least 2.
  • The Panthers are carrying too many injuries: For a start, we ought to point out that Round 25 was the first time Penrith had run out with a full-strength line-up since Round 1, so however injured they may be, their squad remains stronger than what they played with through the regular season (a regular season in which they won all but 3 games). Yes, they’ve lost Tevita Pangai Jr, but they also regain Moses Leota. And the remaining injuries are injuries they’ve been carrying for a while. Dylan Edwards missed these sides’ first finals clash with his current foot injury, but turned in a man-of-the-match effort against Melbourne. Brian To’o may be carrying a noticeable limp, but he limped his way to a team-high 209m against Melbourne (56 post-contact) on his gammy leg. It seems odd to assume then, that these injuries are suddenly insurmountable, when in several cases the Panthers’ best performers have been the ones carrying the niggles.
  • Wayne Bennett will have something up his sleeve: While you’ll get no argument from us that Bennett is a far more successful coach than his Penrith counterpart (that much should be immediately obvious), the idea that Bennett will surely make up for his side’s shortcomings by out-coaching Cleary just doesn’t add up. If Bennett knows the secret to beating Penrith, why didn’t he use it when his side was losing 5 straight to Penrith since 2019? And if coaching were to be the difference, that would imply that Craig Bellamy – the most accomplished coach of the past decade – is some kind of dunderhead who apparently couldn’t figure it out himself (if he could, it would follow that Melbourne should be here instead). That conceptually seems equal parts wrong and disrespectful.
• All of this being said, please don’t misunderstand us – we’re not saying for a second that Souths can’t win. Rather, we’re just saying that the popular narratives being spoon-fed to the masses via the mainstream media are dubious at best, and irrational at worst. Souths absolutely can win – heck, they literally did it within the past month – but if they do, it won’t be because of the reasons being trumpeted. Rather, it will be through the incredible development of their forwards through the back half of the year, on both sides of the ball. In their win over Penrith, the Rabbitohs were able to do a Penrith on Penrith, dominating the Panthers’ middles on their way to narrowly winning the yardage battle by 21m. That may not sound like much, but consider the fact that Penrith have won the yardage exchange in 21 of 27 matches this year – this is where Penrith have won their matches (of Penrith’s 4 losses, 3 came in matches where they trailed for field position). In the 16 games in which Penrith have won the yardage by 200m or more, they average a dominant 5.6 tries per game – a number that is virtually insurmountable when backed up by Penrith’s league-best defense. But when Penrith don’t hit that 200m+ mark, that average drops to just 2.6. So if you’ve been thinking that Penrith haven’t looked as hot through the back half of the year, you’re right – but you should take a good look at their yardage. In the handful of games that their middles dominated, Penrith’s offense clicked just fine, regardless of how many stars they had out. But if Penrith run into a brick wall – like the one the Rabbitohs put up three weeks ago – all of a sudden their offense looks a lot less dangerous. This certainly makes the loss of Pangai seem to take on extra significance, but let us point out one thing: when Penrith beat the Bunnies back in Round 23, Pangai managed just 67m at an embarrassing 5.6m per carry. The guys who did the heavy lifting that night – Moses Leota and Scott Sorenson, who combined for 243m at 8.4 metres-per-tote weren’t playing when Souths won three weeks ago. Without these key middles, the Panthers were left starting Matt Eisenhuth (who hasn’t even made the 21-man squad since) and using Liam Martin for a significant chunk as a middle forward. Which isn’t to say that Penrith are suddenly unbeatable, but it would be fair to think that Souths will need to be better again just to achieve a similar result.
• And should they manage to be successful in slowing down Penrith’s offense, will that be enough to secure the premiership? Maybe, but probably not. We went into some detail last week about how just how elite Penrith’s defense is (it’s objectively about twice as good as Souths’ in relative terms), but it presents a uniquely bad match-up for the Rabbitohs’ offense. Souths attack (which is extremely good, and deservedly the 2nd best in the league) is built around two key strengths: Damien Cook getting out from dummy half; and an incomparably smooth left edge offense. With Penrith’s swarming middle D relentlessly dominating the ruck (they rank 2nd in RMCVOA), Cook rarely receives a quick play-the-ball, which consequently removes his threat to run from dummy half. As the Bunnies ran roughshod over Manly last week, for example, Cook ran 7 times for 78m, throwing in a sexy try assist to boot. However, he has 7 runs combined in his 3 matches against Penrith this year, the direct result of the Panthers’ dominance of the ruck. And as good as Souths’ left edge is offensively, the Panthers’ right edge is the best defensive group in the competition (and we should point out that this right edge was incomplete when these sides last met, with Stephen Crichton filling in for Edwards at fullback). With Penrith dominating the middle and being capable of shutting down even the most proficient attacking left edges, it should come as no surprise that Penrith have held Souths to 3 tries or less in their past 6 meetings straight. In fact, it may well be that the Bunnies’ right edge is their most likely to produce points (and indeed, it was down this edge that they scored the match-winner three weeks ago).
• In short, we could see this going one of two ways. The first is that Penrith are able to get over the top through their forwards, laying a platform for their offense to kick into gear. Should Penrith win the yardage battle by 200m+, we fully expect them to run away with it and win by 13+ (again). The second, though, is that Souths come out breathing fire and match their more fancied counterparts set-for-set. In that case, this all of a sudden becomes a real contest, and probably one that resembles the Panthers’ last few games. Perhaps Penrith have built confidence from their most recent successes, and that proves the difference deep into the match. Or perhaps they get spooked, and the old heads of South Sydney, like Adam Reynolds and Benji Marshall, have the class to guide Souths to victory. On balance, we’re of the view that you have to give the edge to Penrith because they require less to win – the Panthers have the upside to comfortably score 20+ if they can get rolling down the field, but have shown over the past fortnight that they can also tackle their way home with as few as 8 points (the Bunnies, meanwhile, haven’t won a game all year when scoring less than 16). For what it’s worth, we’re leaning towards the Rabbitohs’ middles aiming up and turning this into a slugfest, with Penrith eventually defending their way to a third title. Penrith by 6.

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2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 147/198 (74%) (Last week: 2/2)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Rabbitohs
• Storm

Notes

• While Sea Eagles fans would have no doubt enjoyed their thumping win over a dreadful Roosters outfit, we didn’t really learn anything new about Manly. We already knew they can run up the score against defenses that don’t want to be there; what we want to see is whether or not Manly’s style of offense can trouble an elite defense that’s actually having a go. Though we got an answer to that question a fortnight ago when they were held to 2 tries and 1 line break against Melbourne (the answer, by the way, was a resounding “NO”), they’ll get another crack here against the league’s 3rd-best defense, the Rabbitohs. Though Souths have certainly had the odd embarrassing defensive effort this year (indeed, they copped 106 points in 2 games against Melbourne and Penrith), that hasn’t really happened for a while. They haven’t leaked more than 4 tries in a game since the Penrith debacle all the way back in Round 11, and have limited their opponents to 2 or fewer line breaks in 8 of their last 14 matches. They admittedly gave up a few in their last start to the Panthers, but we’d argue they made up for it through their dominance in the middle of the field. Despite facing the best pack in the NRL, the Bunnies somehow contained all but 2 of Penrith’s forwards to 75m or less, with Penrith’s starting middles James Fisher-Harris and Matt Eisenhuth kept to 7 and 6 metres-per-carry respectively (unsurprisingly, Eisenhuth has since been banished to the Netherrealm). If this sort of middle defense doesn’t make Manly nervous, they should check again – though it was Melbourne’s offense that showed up on the highlight reel, it was the dominance of the Storm’s middles a fortnight ago that laid the foundation for the Eagles getting their arses to them. Starting middles Josh Aloiai and Marty Taupau were held to 7 and 7.5 metres-per-tote respectively, with no Manly forwards even cracking 90 metres. With no platform to work from, Tom Trbojevic was easily shut down, as the Eagles were starved of field position. This is a recipe that’s been followed by every team that’s beaten the Eagles this year: the Storm outgained them by 659m and previously by 410m; the Raiders by 508m; the Knights by 346m – the list goes on and on. If you want to take Turbo out of the game, the first step is to play as much of the game as possible down Manly’s end, where he’s less inclined to be involved creatively, and where any line breaks you do concede are less likely to lead to tries. And if they spend enough time down there themselves, you’d have to fancy the Rabbitohs’ left edge’s chances of earning a few meat pies themselves. We have to give Manly some credit and say that their pack has improved significantly as the year’s gone on, and if they can somehow get on top of the Bunnies through the middle, it’s not at all beyond the realms of possibility that they could jag the upset here. Though the Rabbitohs are almost at full strength, their one key absence – Latrell Mitchell – is a pretty darn big one, and his loss likely takes away the option for Souths to straight blow Manly off the park (which they otherwise probably would). Instead, they’re going to have to be prepared to grind, play field position, and defend their way to victory. We’ve already seen them do it against a better side than this Eagles squad, so we’ll give them the benefit of the doubt that they can back up that effort again here. But they need only look at what happened to the Roosters in the opening quarter last week to see what can happen if you dare to phone it in against Manly.
• In the second preliminary final, we find ourselves asking the same question we ask every other week: can anybody beat the Storm? As a general rule, it’s good practice to simply pop a tick next to the ‘Storm’ box on your tipping card and go about the rest of your day (indeed, we’ll be doing exactly that), but if there’s any team perfectly built to stop the Melbourne juggernaut, the Panthers are it. Though it should come as no secret that Penrith’s offense looks disturbingly clunky of late, outpacing the Storm in a shoot-out is not really a winning strategy in the first place. The Storm have charged through the competition this year behind the league’s best offense, scoring 20+ in an incredible 22 of their 25 matches played (a figure that is absolutely obscene). But do you know what happened in the 3 matches where they didn’t get to 20 points? They lost. All three. The thing here is that while the Storm defense is extremely good (they rank 2nd in the league, after all), it’s not Penrith good. While the Storm’s elite D has conceded 2 tries or fewer in an impressive 11 matches (which, to be fair, is truly fantastic), the Panthers have done it a ridiculous 18 times. So, if the Panthers are able to find a way to add the Storm to that tally (for a second time), all of a sudden they’re in with a sniff. The Storm generally seem to give up an extra try or so compared to the Panthers, whose defense puts them in with a shot at winning games they otherwise have no business being competitive in (for Exhibit A, just look at the collection of tries the Panthers bombed last week against Parramatta; the Storm turned in a similar attacking effort against the Eels a fortnight earlier – and lost, 22-10). In an effort to artificially lift the Storm’s points tally, we’d expect them to take a leaf out of the Rabbitohs’ book and take every opportunity to slot penalty goals against Penrith (the Rabbitohs’ 6 points scored from penalties ultimately proved the difference in their finals clash). Otherwise, they risk getting stymied again and again as every other elite offense has been by the Panthers’ D (with the notable exception of the Storm’s 37-10 hammering of a depleted Penrith squad in Round 20, the Panthers have otherwise averaged 12 points conceded per game from 7 matches against Top 5 Offenses, Melbourne included). Nevertheless, we still have to tip Melbourne because, frankly, they’re the best team in football and they have more ways to win. If Melbourne can jump out to a multi-score lead, we doubt that Penrith’s struggling offense would be capable of running them down. And even if they don’t, you’d have to fancy Melbourne’s chances in the latter stages in the event it goes down to the wire, given their depth of experience and history of winning big matches (though we admit that that Cleary fellow from Penrith is pretty handy in those spots, too). In contrast, Penrith’s only serious option is to grit their teeth and sign up for another brutal, 80-minute slugfest if they’re to get home. We can’t rule it out because their D really is that good, but they’ll need to be near perfect if they’re to pull it off.

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