The Obstruction Rule

2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 88/134  (66%)  (Last Week: 7/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Broncos by 8 – How on earth the Eels can be coming into this match as favourites against an absolutely piping hot Broncos side is honestly beyond us. What is it exactly about Parramatta that’s so appealing? Is it their Bottom 4-standard defense that has given up 4 or more line breaks in all but 3 matches this season (and 6+ in 8 of those)? Is it their mediocre offense that ranks below average in both LBVOA and TBVOA (and in the only VOA category they’re above average for – RMVOA – Brisbane are the best in the league)? Perhaps it’s their apparently impressive past month or so of football, in which they’ve copped 2 hidings of 13+, while winning 3 games unconvincingly by 10 points or fewer (all against teams currently outside the Top 8, no less)? In all likelihood, the answer is probably in Parramatta’s strong recent record against the Broncos, having won their past 5 straight. However, it’s worth remembering that across those three seasons, the Broncos finished 8th, last and 14th – which is to say, just about everyone has a strong recent record against Brisbane. But this Broncos outfit looks different. These Brisbane Broncos sit equal with the Eels on the ladder, have won back-to-back games with essentially a reserve grade outfit, and will now be bolstered by the return of their entire starting middle rotation (Payne Haas, Corey Jensen and Patrick Carrigan), plus Corey Oates and Kurt Capewell to boot. We’ve long been of the view that Parra are more likely to miss the 8 altogether than they are to make the Top 4, and Brisbane can go a long way towards bringing that to fruition tonight by handing them the beating their scrub defense deserves.
• Sea Eagles by 20+ – Suffice to say that we don’t consider the Dragons a worthy opponent of the Sea Eagles, but we just want to bring your attention to the terrific price on Manly, who are currently at a ludicrous $1.67 against a St George-Illawarra side who’ve leaked 86 points and 18 line breaks in 2 weeks, and are now without their team leader in tackle busts, Moses Suli. We can only assume that punters are concerned about how Manly will go without Jake “The God of Plod” Trbojevic. The answer, in our view, is ‘significantly faster’, and to assuage your concerns, rest easy in the knowledge that in 4 games without Plod last year, they won 3 of those and posted their 2 highest points totals of the season (66 vs Canterbury and 56 vs the Titans). With Plod replaced in the squad by Taniela Paseka (3rd among Manly forwards for metres-per-carry, vs Plod’s last), if anything, we like them more.
• Roosters by 10 – Having ended a 4-match losing run in a bit of a pointsfest last week against the Saints, there are plenty of reasons to feel good about the Roosters‘ chances here. Sure, they’re still missing a couple of key forwards (Lindsay Collins and Siosiua Taukeiaho), but they’re also gaining reinforcements in the form of Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Matt Lodge, so their pack should still be plenty competitive. Our biggest concern with Sydney is actually the recent state of their defense, having leaked 5+ line breaks in their past 4 consecutive games. The worst offender has typically been Paul Momirovski, who was ironically brought over from Penrith as something of a defensive specialist. He’s unfortunately been struggling badly in 2022, leaking the 11th-most line breaks in the competition, despite playing just 13 games. He shouldn’t be too exposed here given the Knights’ typical inability to effectively utilise their centres, but we’ve nevertheless capped the margin in anticipation of Newie bagging a few tries.
• Raiders by 12 – As we’ve said previously in Raiders games, the margin here doesn’t reflect our confidence in Canberra. We feel plenty comfortable tipping Canberra here – we’re giving the Warriors about a 50/50 shot to even reach 10 points – but the margin in Raiders games is limited by the low ceiling of their offense. In 17 matches this season, the Raiders have exceeded 24 points just twice – despite having hit 20 points 7 times. If they’re ever going to run up a score, a home tilt against the defense ranked 12th is as good a time as any to do it, but we’re not betting on it.
• Panthers by 14 – An away trip to Penrith will be a good test for the Sharks, who’ve recently been warming back up into a little bit of form. The questions lingering over that form are over the quality of sides they’ve beaten – in winning 5 matches on the trot, they’ve beaten the sides sitting 12th, 14th and 15th, and an Origin-depleted Melbourne, before finally rolling an opponent of note last weekend in North Queensland. Though the win over the Cowboys was certainly convincing, it was also predictable – the Cowboys are a plus-matchup for Cronulla, given the gulf between the sides in their abilities to produce line breaks. However, that isn’t the case here – while Cronulla rank 1st in LBVOA, the Panthers are an admirable 4th, and arguably in better form (Penrith have posted positive LBVOAs in their past 9 straight matches, compared to Cronulla’s 7). Beyond that, the Panthers are otherwise better right much across the board – they have a better defense, better pack, better wingers (especially with the loss of Sione Katoa) and better halves. Though Cronulla have done a good job this year beating the teams they should beat, they’ve also gotten whacked a few times by the teams who are better than them (most notably Melbourne, Sydney and Canberra). Penrith are the latter.
• Storm by 12 – The Rabbitohs/Storm match is particularly interesting given the different trajectories these two sides appear to be on. In the Bunnies’ case, they’ve been reinvigorated by the return of Latrell Mitchell, winning 3 straight games while posting 35 points per game. Melbourne, meanwhile, have dropped 3 straight for the first time since 2015, driven largely by the cumulative impact of injuries and Origin. On the surface, it looks like a slam dunk tip of the Rabbitohs, but we’re not so sure. With their Origin contingent back last week, Melbourne actually outgunned the Raiders for line breaks 6 to 4, and outgained them by over 100m (after having been outgained themselves by over 200m in the previous two losses), which makes last week’s loss look a little different from the previous two (in which they were, to be frank, terrible). The loss of Ryan Papenhuyzen stings, but to be fair, he was lost before the quarter mark of last week’s game (meaning most of their numbers were posted without him), and you may be surprised to learn that they actually won their last 3 matches that Papz sat out (against Manly, Sydney and Brisbane – all sides right around Souths on the ladder). Most critically for us though, is the likelihood that Melbourne should have an absolute ton of possession, with the Storm bringing the league’s lowest error rate (under 9 per game) into a match against the league’s highest (almost 13). Armed with a spine still loaded with Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes and Harry Grant, we just don’t think the Rabbitohs’ D is good enough to withstand any sort of prolonged exposure (especially having just given up 28 points for two weeks running against offensive featherweights Newcastle and Canterbury). In all likelihood, we think both attacking units are likely to do well, but we’re assuming Melbourne win possession and field position, and that difference should be worth a try or two.
• Titans by 2 – What do you prefer – the consistent mediocrity of the Titans (who’ve produced a LBVOA between -6.00% and -29.23% in 7 of their past 9 matches), or the hot-and-cold mystery box of the Bulldogs (who’ve bounced up-and-down for five weeks between -63.86% and 30.01% – FYI, on the current pattern they’re due for a “down”). Last weekend marked the Titans’ 7th loss this year by 8 points or fewer, which highlights that they’re not generally that far away – they just don’t win. The return of Jayden Campbell will be a huge help (they average 19.7 points per game with Campbell, a mark they’ve hit just once in 10 games without him), but the biggest argument in favour of picking the Gold Coast is probably in the other team, where Jake Averillo (4th on his team for try involvements) has been scratched due to COVID, and Josh Addo-Carr (2nd) remains in doubt. For an attacking unit that we’re still not convinced is actually any good, that’s enough for us to be put off; but we can understand anyone’s hesitation actually backing the Titans (it just feels icky, doesn’t it?).
• Cowboys by 20+

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2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 81/126  (64%)  (Last Week: 2/4)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Sharks by 6 – The opening match of the round shapes as the most intriguing, with both sides sitting in the Top 4 and the game projected dead even with the bookies. Though both sides are enjoying a better year than usual, we don’t actually think either side is wildly stylistically different to their past few seasons – the Sharks come in as a line break-producing machine (they rank 1st in LBVOA) that is held back by a ludicrously high error-rate (they make the 2nd-most errors per game); the Cowboys prefer to grind field position (they rank 5th in both RMVOA and RMCVOA) in order to compensate for what’s otherwise a pretty underwhelming offense (they rank just 10th for LBVOA). This has been the case for the past few seasons (though both sides are obviously doing what they do even better in 2022), so it’s probably worth observing that Cronulla come in having won the past 7-straight meetings between these sides (with the Sharkies scoring 20+ in 6 of those). The match-up seems to be fruitful for the Shire boys, and North Queensland’s decision to rest all their Origin stars other than Tom Gilbert only tilts the match further in Cronulla’s favour (for a team that leans heavily on kick tries, taking away Tom Dearden as a kicking option and Jeremiah Nanai as a kick recipient can only hurt).
• Eels by 14
• Roosters by 12 – This comes with the caveat that we don’t yet know for sure that all the Roosters‘ Origin contingent are backing up – James Tedesco has been named, for example, but with Lachlan Lam on the extended bench, the Roosters do have the option to play Lam in the halves and slide Joey Manu to fullback. With Sydney having already lost book-ends Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Lindsay Collins, there probably does come a point where you have to consider the Dragons (especially considering that the Dragons actually won their last meeting, back in Round 7). We’re not quite there yet – watching them get outgained by a reserve grade Broncos side last weekend has us right off them – but if Teddy and Crichton are late scratchings, we’d definitely be considering it.
• Sea Eagles by 8 – We’re not saying the Knights are good, but we will say that they’re suddenly playing much better footy of late. Their past 3 performances have been their 3rd, 4th and 5th best outings of the season in terms of LBVOA, and that upward trajectory should only continue with Kalyn Ponga coming back into the side after missing their past 2 starts. With the Sea Eagles having leaked 58 points across their last 2 starts, the Knights certainly have the upside to nudge the 20-point mark again here. Unfortunately, we still don’t see that being enough points. Despite losing Tom Trbojevic for the season, the Eagles have been in a little bit of an attacking purple patch recently, racking up 5 or more tries in their past 4 straight. A big part of that production has come from the Eagles suddenly unlocking their outside backs, with Tolutau Koula and Jason Saab having produced 5 and 3 line breaks respectively in these 4 matches, after making 0 and 2 in the entire season up until that point. Coming up against a Newcastle side whose outside backs have leaked the most (Dane Gagai), 2nd-most (Enari Tuala) and 7th-most (Dom Young) line breaks in the competition, this is an absolutely delicious match-up for Manly’s speedsters, and they should have too much firepower in what shapes as a high-scoring shootout.
• Broncos by 6 – We’ve projected this to be close on account of the Broncos once again naming a largely reserve grade-quality forward pack, but after watching them smoke the Dragons last weekend, we’re not about to tip against them again, especially against a group mired in a 6-game losing streak. This should be winnable for the Titans, but in reality it probably won’t be.
• Panthers by 12 – Those with long memories may recall the Panthers getting pumped 26-6 in the corresponding game last season, in which Penrith rested their entire Origin contingent (as they are again doing here). For this reason alone we’re tempering expectations for the Panthers, no matter how good they’ve been lately. That being said, the situation is a little bit different. For a start, the Tigers are (somehow) going significantly worse than they were a year ago. Last season, they came into the match after a dominant win over St George-Illawarra, and the win formed part of a promising period of the season in which they won 4 of 6 matches (they’d only win 4 other games all season). This year, they come in on a 5-game losing streak, in which they’ve been outgained in every match (Penrith’s forward pack, by the way, is the least affected part of their side), and leaked 20+ in every match, while actually scoring 20 just the once. Secondly, Penrith’s replacement squad looks better here, with their left edge of Taylan May, Izack Tago and Viliame Kikau intact, and a halves pairing containing zero Tyrone Mays. Finally, while Penrith lost both their Origin-affected outings last season, we’ve already seen them play without their studs this year – and they looked remarkably Penrith-ish, pumping the Bulldogs 30-18 in a game that was far less competitive than the score even suggests. With the Bulldogs arguably a better side than Wests at this juncture, that’s probably enough to stick with Penrith’s NSW Cup squad here.
• Storm by 10 – If you wanted to have a sniff on an upset this week, we don’t think the Raiders are a terrible shout – the Storm are mired in a horror defensive stretch in which they’ve given up 20+ points in 3 straight games, while slumping to a below-average LBCVOA of 5.55% (their season-average is -8.52%). The way Melbourne’s defending, you have to at least give the Raiders a shot – but we probably also need to manage expectations for a Canberra offense that’s only exceeded 4 tries in a game 3 times all season. The Raiders are a fundamentally limited offense, and as bad as Melbourne have been on D recently, it would be difficult to argue that they’ve been worse than sides like the Warriors, Canterbury or Parramatta – all sides who’ve kept the Raiders under 4 tries. And with the Storm finally getting their first-choice spine back together this weekend, the reality is that Canberra will almost certainly need to find at least 4 tries to win (even allowing for how good the Raiders’ defense typically is). Our tip is on the assumption that the Raiders don’t have those points in them – but we do acknowledge that Melbourne’s defense has been so poor lately that it’s not completely out of the question.
• Rabbitohs by 12

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2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 74/116  (64%)  (Last Week: 5/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Storm by 12 – Though the absence of Cameron Munster has us dialing back the Storm‘s projected margin of victory a little bit, it didn’t come close to tempting us onto the Sea Eagles. For a start, his absence should be at least somewhat offset by the return of Ryan Papenhuyzen, ensuring that Melbourne have enough points in them to get the job done. Second – and contrary to the myth that Manly and Melbourne games are still an enthralling rivalry – this isn’t a matchup in which Manly tend to do well. Melbourne’s ability to control the ruck makes them the most difficult team in the league to earn run metres on (they rank 1st in RMCVOA), which is especially challenging for a Manly side that hasn’t had an elite middle since Addin Fonua-Blake packed up and headed across the Tasman. Only hooker Lachlan Croker ranks among the NRL’s Top 50 players for metres-per-carry (and he averages less than 3 carries per game, anyway), and they have no forwards in the Top 100 (but I suppose you get that when your forward leader is Plod “364th in the league” Trbojevic). Without the ability to earn field position off Melbourne – combined with the Storm’s notoriously stingy defense – Manly have barely troubled the scorers in this matchup for years (they’ve scored more than 13 points in a game against Melbourne just once in their past 8 attempts). And finally, it’s worth noting that Manly have yet to beat any current Top 8 side this year in 6 attempts (and if you haven’t been keeping track, the Storm are currently sitting 2nd).
• Titans by 4 – If there’s good news for the Titans and Knights this week it’s that somebody has to win (though given their mutual struggles, we probably shouldn’t rule out a Golden Point draw). By their 2022 standards, both sides were marginally better than usual in their last starts, losing by 1 try to teams currently in Top 8 contention, though neither was terribly whelming. Both sides have been struggling behind badly beaten packs (the Knights have been outgained by 200m+ in their past 4 straight; the Titans in their past 5), which makes the potential returns of Lachlan Fitzgibbon and Daniel Saifiti for Newcastle and David Fifita and Kevin Proctor for the Gold Coast welcome additions. We suppose there’s an argument for backing Newcastle with the home ground advantage, but it’s not terribly compelling given that 3 of their 4 wins on the season have actually come away from McDonald Jones Stadium. Instead, we’re liking the Titans on account of their typically stronger offense (which should only be better with the return of Fifita). The Titans have quietly managed 5+ line breaks in their past 2 games (the Knights have done it in just 3 games all season, and not since Round 6), and if they can keep up that pace, it’ll be hard for Newie to keep up, especially without captain Kalyn Ponga (after him, no other Knight has more than 4 assists on the year). You never feel comfortable tipping the Gold Coast, but this is about as good an opportunity as they’ll get to lift themselves off the bottom of the ladder.
• Panthers by 20+
• Sharks by 14 – Credit where it’s due, the Bulldogs were terrific against the Tigers in their last start, and we’re not too proud to admit we were totally wrong about that. Their upset win over Parramatta may have been more good luck than good management, but they were comprehensively better than a pretty pathetic Tigers outfit. That being said, this is a huge leap up in class, and their suddenly-effective offense would need to improve even further if they’re to make a contest out of it against Cronulla. Despite back-to-back wins, their defense has still been woeful, with them needing an obscene 60% possession share just to keep an opponent to under 5 line breaks in a game for the first time in 5 weeks (and with that opponent being Wests, that’s not a strong endorsement). The Sharks, meanwhile, have managed to hit that mark in all but 3 matches this season. Canterbury will need to score well over 20 points again if they’re to win here, and frankly, we don’t like their chances.
• Cowboys by 4 – If you’re searching for a match of the round candidate, look no further than the Queensland derby. Both the Cowboys and Broncos come in having dropped just 1 game each since Round 7, but having looked a little shaky in their last start. In the case of North Queensland, they were dead to rites against Manly, before an inexplicable Eagles meltdown handed them the win on a platter. But don’t be fooled by the result – the Cows’ 1 line break was the worst effort anyone has managed against Manly since Newcastle in Round 5, and was their second attacking clunker in the past month (the first being getting nilled by Penrith). But frankly, even at their best the Cowboys offense really isn’t as good as the scoreboard might suggest. That Manly game marked the 6th time this year that the Cowboys have scored more tries than they have line breaks. Though this may be great for pinching the odd match and maintaining an elevated ladder position, it doesn’t bode well for the long-term health of their offense. Over a large sample size, teams who produce more line breaks tend to score more tries, and the Cows’ LBVOA of -8.09% is pretty ordinary at absolute best. Accordingly, we expect their points totals to begin trending downward sooner or later. But will it be as soon as this week? We’re thinking it probably won’t, because the Broncos’ defense isn’t quite up to scratch. Brisbane have only conceded less than 4 line breaks in a game on 3 occasions all season, and in 2 of those they needed 54%+ of the footy in order to do it. With the Cows having only lost the possession battle 3 times all year – and having earned 57% against Brisbane back in Round 3 – we think they can maintain the illusion of a high-end offense… for now.
• Rabbitohs by 1 – If the Queensland derby is the best game of the week, the Eels/Rabbitohs game is surely the most difficult to pick, with both sides having copped a flogging from a competition bottom-feeder within the past fortnight (though with the Dragons currently sat in 8th spot, perhaps we should be paying them a little more respect). The argument for picking the Eels here would be a simple one – they have the league’s lowest error rate, while the Rabbitohs come in with the competition’s worst. Should they play to form, it’s reasonable to expect that Parra could accumulate such a mass of possession that they’d inevitably run up the score – right? Well, not necessarily. In fact, the Eels have somehow still managed to lose 3 times this year while earning 53%+ of possession. This is because (spoiler alert) pound-for-pound, the Eels just aren’t very good. They desperately need enormous possession shares in order to protect a defense that’s leaked 3+ tries in all but 2 games this year (and in those 2 matches, they needed 55%+ of the footy to manage it). Their offense is decent enough, but we’d argue it isn’t any better than the Rabbitohs’ (in fact, the Rabbits rank 4th in Offense, vs the Eels’ 5th). And let’s not forget that Latrell Mitchell is due back this week, and has just one game in which to earn his Origin jersey back. If their offenses are otherwise pretty similar, it may be worth mentioning that in the 4 games Mitchell’s played this year, the Rabbitohs’ LBVOA lifted from a respectable 23.45% to 41.03% (Parra’s, by the way, is 8.27%). So, should possession be equal (or, heaven forbid, in favour of Souths), we fancy the Rabbits are the better team, and would get home reasonably comfortably. We fancy the Eels probably need about 52% to make it a coin-flip, and 53%+ tips it in Parramatta’s favour. With that being the case – and knowing that Parra have earned 53%+ in 9 of 14 matches – are you feeling lucky?
• Warriors by 4 – In the Warriors’ homecoming to New Zealand, they surely have to be up for this game. After a solid enough start to the year, it seems like they stopped trying about two months ago, and they’ve now given up 20+ points in an unbelievable 11 straight games. But in front of a full house and with a few of their stars hopefully reinvigorated by the passion of the Pacific Tests, you’d have to think they can turn up for at least one good effort. And who better to do it against than the Tigers who’ve been outscored 66-16 since Brett Kimmorley took over as coach, by a pair of Bottom 8 sides? The Warriors don’t win many, but if you’re ever going to tip a side riding a 7-match losing streak, this is the one.
• Raiders by 8 – The Dragons might be the most difficult team in the NRL to tip, on account of their inconsistent offense. While ordinarily you’d expect they’d struggle to beat anybody given the crumminess of their defense (that ranks last in the league), their offense can actually drop big scores from time-to-time. Having leaked 20+ points in 8 of 14 matches, they typically require big totals to win (they’ve only won 2 games in which they scored less than 20 points). But, they have got the firepower to actually do it every so often. They’ve managed 5+ line breaks in half their matches this season, with these coming overwhelmingly off of Ben Hunt, who’s quietly in the middle of a career year (he ranks 4th in the league for line break assists and 2nd for try assists). Should Hunt be impacted by an apparent leg injury he picked up during Origin, you could just about put a line through their chances here. If not, the question becomes exactly how many points he can create, given their defensive ineptitude. While Canberra have struggled to post big totals this year, they haven’t historically had any such issues against St George-Illawarra, having scored 20+ in their past 5 straight. Bolstered by the return of Jack Wighton (who, like Latrell Mitchell, has just one game to retake his Origin jumper), we’re backing the Raiders get north of 20 points again here, and crossing our fingers that that’ll be enough.

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2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 69/108  (64%)  (Last Week: 6/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Rabbitohs by 16
• Cowboys by 10 – The Sea Eagles have looked a lot better the past two weeks, though at this stage it’s still not clear whether their spike in form was due to having their best half (Kieran Foran) running the show, or the fact they’ve played 2 of the Bottom 4 defenses over that period (we fancy it’s a little bit of both). While the Eagles would have been expected to post a few decent scores anyway considering the quality of their opponents, it should be noted that behind the more direct play style of Foz, they’ve played with a LBVOA of 29.08%, compared to -8.19% with Daly Cherry-Evans at halfback – which is significant, remembering that by design, VOAs account for the relative strength of opponent. Even more impressive is the fact that Foran has managed it during a pretty significant injury crisis (at least DCE got to play a few games with Turbo, for example). In any event, DCE is back here, and they’re facing a pretty significant leap in defensive class against the Cowboys. Together, that has us a bit down on the Eagles’ prospects of making it 3-in-a-row. We don’t necessarily buy into the idea that the Cows belong in the same tier as the competition juggernauts Penrith and Melbourne, but there’s no doubting that their defense at least has been first class for most of the year, with them having conceded 2 or fewer tries in a whopping 10 of 14 matches played. Given the Eagles’ typical struggles on defense (they’d leaked 20+ points in 6 straight prior to their fortunate fortnight against the competition cupcakes, in which they had the added benefit of defending without DCE, who happens to have leaked the most line breaks in the competition among all NRL halves), it’s hard to imagine the Cowboys not finding enough points to win.
• Storm by 10 – Though the Broncos did a fabulous job to hang onto a narrow lead last weekend as Canberra came storming home (the tiring Broncos found themselves giving up over 10 metres-per-carry in the 2nd half, but nevertheless managed to keep a clean sheet), but as with Manly above, they’re facing a huge jump in class from Canberra to the Storm, and will have to do it without star halfback Adam Reynolds. The big concern for Brisbane here is their dependence on field position in order win games. With a dominant forward pack and ridiculous yardage production from their outside backs (they have 3 of their regular backline averaging over 10 metres-per-tote), the Broncos have recently been able to overcome a lack of creativity through sustained pressure attacking the opposition tryline (they average 4.5 tries per game when they’ve won the yardage battle, and only 3.3 when they lose it). This is good coaching that has Brisbane playing to their strengths, but we can’t help feeling like they’ll struggle when they run into elite run-stopping sides. Indeed, when facing teams with above-average RMCVOA (a category in which the Storm are the best in the league), they’ve won just 3 from 6. Without the benefit of sustained field position, we don’t believe the Broncos have the attacking spark to keep up with Melbourne at the best of times, let alone without Reynolds.
• Sharks by 12 – After a promising defensive start to the season in which the Titans conceded 4 or fewer line breaks in their opening 6 matches, the Gold Coast seem to have reverted to their bad old days as they’ve watched their season gradually slip away. Before we knew it, they’d leaked 5+ in 6 of their last 8, including their past 4 consecutive games. The tragedy for Titans fans will be the unfulfilled promise of what could have been – of the 4 matches they lost during that strong opening 6 weeks, they never lost by more than 8, and if a few balls had bounced differently they could have been much better placed on the ladder, and perhaps this rot wouldn’t have set in. But it has, and running into a Sharks outfit ranked 1st in the league for LBVOA isn’t going to be kind to them. We’re saying Cronulla by 12, but with the caveat that if Cronulla get out in front early, this definitely has the potential to get ugly. The Titans just seem to have a bit of quit in them.
• Panthers by as many as they feel like
• Roosters by 4 – It’s somewhat surprising to us that after nobody (other than us) gave the Roosters a chance of beating the Eels when these sides met in Round 10, they’re sitting just about even with the bookies coming into their rematch (but we suppose getting pumped by Canterbury will have that effect). For what it’s worth, we still prefer the Roosters, though with perhaps a little less conviction than we had last time. For a start, we still vividly remember the Eels steaming home in that match, falling just 7 points short of what had the potential to be an historic comeback. Secondly, we’re a little bit concerned about the possible toll that the Roosters’ recent run of close losses may have on their mindset. Since Round 7, all 3 of the Roosters’ wins have come looking extremely comfortable, with them leading by 20+ at some point of each game. But in all but one of their losses (the flogging they copped off Penrith), they’ve been nailbiters, in which over and over again they’ve fallen agonisingly short. They haven’t played badly at all (they have above average VOAs for both offense and defense), they just haven’t been winning. If this sounds familiar, it’s because it’s following a similar pattern to what the Titans went through to begin the season (and we all know how that turned out). For this reason, we feel like it’s getting to be crunch time for the Roosters, and Trent Robinson will know exactly how important it is to actually get the chocolates in a competitive match with a contender. And what better “contender” to beat than the pretend one with the 3rd-worst defense in the league?
• Raiders by 12 – While broadly speaking our provided tipping margin can be viewed as an indicator of our confidence in any particular tip, that isn’t so much the case here. For the record, we do feel pretty darn confident that the Raiders should handle the Knights without too much fuss. However, it’s near impossible to ever tip them by a huge margin given the ceiling that appears to be over their offense. Through 14 games, they’ve only scored more than 24 points twice, failing to exceed that mark even against defensive stragglers like the Gold Coast, Parramatta, New Zealand and Canterbury. Though Newcastle’s D frequently is terrible (they’ve leaked 30+ on 7 different occasions), we feel like the most likely outcome here is that the Raiders hit their points ceiling, and walk away comfortable (if underwhelming) winners 24-12.
• Tigers by 1 – We don’t want to be the ones to immediately pour cold water on Bulldogs fans after their enjoyable win over Parramatta last week, we do feel a bit of responsibility to point out that their stats were – for the most part – terrible, and the result had far more to do with the Eels bombing opportunities than anything particularly positive that the Doggies were doing. The Bulldogs missed more tackles (30 v 24), gave up more line breaks (5 v 2) and got absolutely hammered for field position (they were tackled just 12 times in Parra’s red zone, compared to 36 the other way). They made double-digit errors for the 12th time this year, conceded a further 13 total penalties, and conceded 3 line drop-outs. On any other week, these numbers would result in them getting absolutely belted (as they typical do) – it was largely good fortune that they managed to fluke a brace of intercept tries and snatch another handful of tries from kicks, increasing the scoreboard pressure that likely contributed to the Eels’ bed-wetting. It was nice that they won, but they weren’t good. Of course, the Tigers aren’t good either – they’ve lost their past two games by a combined score of 74-22. But their last game before that? They beat this week’s opponents, the Bulldogs, 36-22 while beating them in just about every statistical category you can think of (tries, line breaks, tackle busts, run metres, handling, possession, etc etc). The Bulldogs get back Josh Addo-Carr compared to the side that Wests pumped a month ago, while the Tigers themselves are adding Adam Doueihi, Daine Laurie and Luke Brooks. That’s some fair reinforcement for the Tigers considering how much better they were the last time they met, so we’re choosing to stick by the Tigpies, no matter how bad the past fortnight has been.

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