The Obstruction Rule

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 52/72 (72%) (Last week: 5/8)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Tigers
• Sea Eagles
• Raiders
• Rabbitohs
• Roosters
• Eels
• Storm
• Panthers

Notes

• We had a whole spiel written up on Wednesday mocking Michael Maguire and his bizarre roster shuffle of the Tigers’ spine this week. Altering the spine in the first place is odd for a team averaging 22 points and 6.5 line breaks per game over the past fortnight. Offense is clearly not their primary concern; rather, their laughably poor defense is the cause of their woes, and subtly shifting Adam Doeihi and Moses Mbye’s defensive responsibilities is unlikely to see a tangible improvement. BUT, then Kalyn Ponga got rubbed out for the Knights with a groin injury, and the Tigers’ prospects significantly improved. To be clear, this game projected quite closely in the first place (we had the Knights by about half a try), in large part because the Knights are one of the few teams with a D as comparably rubbish as Wests. The Tigers’ line break defense is diabolical, conceding 5+ breaks in 8 of 9 contests so far. However, Newcastle’s record is almost as bad. They’ve leaked 5+ in 7 of 9, and their low-water mark – a 10 line break capitulation to the Titans – is actually worse than the Tigpies’ worst effort (giving up 8 to the Manly Tom Trbojevics). And with two shambolic defenses going head-to-head, subtracting the Knights’ most critical attacking player – the player most capable of taking advantage of the Tigers’ ineptitude – is significant. With no disrespect intended for Tex Hoy – he’s certainly one of the better back-up fullbacks in the NRL – he simply isn’t Ponga. Ponga leads his team in try assists, try involvements, line break assists… and he’s only played five games. In moving from Ponga to Hoy, the Knights see their fullback position drop from 1.6 try involvements per game to 0.75. Line break assists drop from 1.2 to 0.5. Remembering that they’re already without star half Mitchell Pearce, it’s not immediately obvious where that production can be replaced from. In a game that projected extremely close to begin with, this loss of production just might be enough to put the Tigers over the top.
• We’re not sure what’s more bizarre – Des Hasler voluntarily opting to use effectively a two-man bench rotation last week, or the fact that despite the Sea Eagles’ entire starting pack playing 43 minutes or more (and all bar Taniela Paseka playing 56+), just 2 managed to go for over 100m (Paseka and Sean Keppie). Such is the complete ineffectiveness of Manly’s forwards, and why they need to be concerned coming into a date with one of the league’s nastiest packs. Sure, they were bailed out last week by their outside backs (4 of their backs contributed over 100m), but they can’t keep allowing themselves to be buried down their own end, hoping for Tom Trbojevic to save the day. The difference between the two packs is stark – while the Broncos have run for 460+ post-contact metres in 6 of 9 games this year, Manly have hit that mark just twice. The Eagles’ forwards tendency to fall down immediately on first contact severely limits their go-forward, and has seen them spend most of the season on their own side of halfway. Before Tom Trbojevic arrived, that was a recipe for repeated 30-point hidings. With Tom adding the ability to attack from anywhere on the field (they have 13 line breaks from outside their opponents’ red zone in 4 games with Tom), they’ve been able to paper over this structural flaw in the team. But it hasn’t disappeared, and it’s unlikely they can sustain these big point totals with long-range tries in the long-term. We fully expect Brisbane to crush Manly for field position; the only reason we aren’t tipping them is a lack of faith in Brisbane’s ability to convert that field position into points. If they can somehow get the 5 tries that Penrith and New Zealand have each put on the Eagles over the past fortnight, we think that would be enough to win; unfortunately, we think they’re probably held to about 3.
• Last week, the Bulldogs made it 3 weeks on the trot creating 2 or fewer line breaks in a game. Naturally, coach Trent Barrett has responded by dropping the only player in the squad with more than 2 assists on the season (wait… what?). Sure, Jake Averillo has started 8 games this season and produced just 2 line break assists and 2 try assists (Kyle Flanagan, for the record, has 7 and 6); but no, it’s obviously all Flanagan’s fault. Perhaps Barrett was persuaded by the 12 second-half points that the Dogs put on in Flanagan’s absence last week, and just failed to notice that they came via a one-on-one strip and an intercept. In any event, this is a shit move, and poor treatment of a young half who was specifically targeted to be the side’s long-term #7. If we were Matt Burton, we’d be seriously reconsidering joining an organisation who dumps its top recruit (and only remotely serviceable player) ten weeks into his tenure – especially after the 20+ point hiding they’re about to cop from a Raiders team who haven’t won since Round 4.
• In a wonderful quirk of NRL scheduling, Saturday night will see a meeting of two sides who last week lost by a combined score of 0-98. Of course, both sides had big scores coming their way – the Rabbitohs had conceded 15 line breaks over the fortnight prior to that game; the Sharks had conceded 13 (which was a fortnight that included facing the completely inept Bulldogs). Similarly, with both sides facing the defenses ranked 1st and 2nd in the league, the “0” shouldn’t have been a huge surprise, either (particularly given the spate of injuries for Souths, in particular). The good news here though, is that this week, they get to face each other. The surprise return of Adam Reynolds should see the Bunnies’ offense click back into gear, having scored 18+ in every match so far, up until last week’s shut-out (the Sharks, meanwhile, haven’t hit that mark in 3 weeks). We’ll be tipping Souths (obviously), but we’re particularly keen to see how the Sharks’ pack measures up in this one. Over the past three weeks, the Sharks’ net yardage has gone from +426m to -477m, and then down to -1095m against Penrith. Should this trend continue, they should be outgained this week by about… 2.5 kilometres (we obviously say that in jest, but with a pack led by Aaron Woods and Aidan Tolman, we can’t rule it out, either).
• We warned you last week that the Roosters‘ “injury crisis” was a massive beat-up, and despite the result, we feel vindicated. Here they were, against an apparent heavyweight (Parra aren’t elite, by the way, but we digress), losing Victor Radley and Drew Hutchison before half-time, facing a 65-35 possession share (due to an obscene 11-5 total penalty count), and they somehow made more line breaks than their opponent?! The very fact that this was a one-score game into the 73rd minute despite the entire game being played down the Roosters’ end (the Eels had 63 play-the-balls in the opposition 20, compared to the Roosters’ 8) is all the proof you should need that the Roosters are fine. If the penalty count had been anywhere near even (or, say, players who should have been sent to the bin had of been), the Roosters would have not only won, they would have pumped them. So here we are, with Radley back in, as well as Sitili Tupouniua returning from suspension, and a match-up with the objectively 2nd-worst team in football. Sign. Me. Up.
• We mightn’t think the Eels are elite, but we’re nonetheless confident that they’re better than the Warriors. Parra shape as a particularly bad matchup for New Zealand, as the Eels rank 1st in RMVOA vs the Warriors’ 3rd-last. In practice, this should result in a hefty field position imbalance, and with the Warriors having conceded 10+ line breaks twice in the past 3 weeks, we don’t like their chances of surviving any kind of prolonged stint defending their own line. You might be thinking the loss of Dylan Brown will hurt the Eels’ offense some, but Brown has been completely ineffective so far – so much so that his forced absence may be a blessing. Brown’s 4 try involvements not only places him below all other members of the Eels’ spine, but also behind such superstars as Bryce Cartwright and Tom Opacic, and 19th among NRL five-eighths (impressive, since there’s only 16 teams). In short, the Eels’ offense should roll downfield comfortably enough, allowing them to attack through Clint Gutherson and Mitch Moses, as per usual. They’ll be fine.
• With a trio of stars sidelined for the Storm, you may be tempted into tipping the Dragons. We wouldn’t recommend it. Sure, their offense will likely be affected and their run of 3 straight games with double-digit line breaks will almost certainly come to an end. However, the Storm are more than just a well-oiled attacking machine. They’re also the 2nd-best defensive side in the competition, and feature one of the game’s best forward packs. They may not blow the Dragons off the park, but they also mightn’t have to. St George-Illawarra are a pretty limited attacking unit, who had been held to 14 points or less in three games straight prior to beating up on the hopeless Bulldogs (and even then, they managed just 6 points before half-time). There’s no reason whatsoever to think the Dragons will trouble Melbourne’s D (we have them capped at 2 tries, max), meaning Melbourne shouldn’t need to drop another 40-burger this week – indeed, fourteen would probably do it. And can an under-strength backline led by Jahrome Hughes do it? Well, one led by Luke Brooks managed 16, so… yeah.
• The round ends with what we thought could be an interesting test for the Panthers. Much has been made of the record-setting pace their defense is on in 2021, but we should point out that they’ve hardly been tested. Of their nine matches so far, just 3 have been against Top 8-ranked offenses, and in those games they conceded 5 of the 11 tries they’ve given up so far this year. Obviously, an average of under 2 tries per game against above average offenses is still ridiculously good, but it’s also a very small sample size. In the Titans, the Panthers would be facing the 5th-best offense in the league, and one that’s only three weeks removed from dropping 30 points on the Rabbits’ #4-ranked D. The Titans would likely still lose because they can’t tackle anybody (they’ve conceded 28+ in 4 straight games, and leaked 5+ line breaks in all but 2 matches so far), but it would be interesting to see how Penrith’s D fares against an offense firing on all cylinders. Unfortunately, the most important piece in the Titans’ offensive engine (I don’t know what that is in this metaphor… the carburetor?) has been left on the mechanic’s bench, with David Fifita rubbed out for two games. With 12 try involvements and 11 line breaks, Fifita not only leads the team in both categories, but leads all second rowers in the NRL (including the beastly Viliame Kikau, who is 5th and 2nd respectively, with just 6 and 5). That’s a lot of missing production that you can’t reasonably expect to get from Beau Fermor (or literally any other second rower in the competition). So, the chances of Penrith’s D getting ripped apart here have dropped dramatically, while the chances of the Titans leaking a big total remain – as always – alarmingly high. Penrith by 20+.

Related NRL News & Posts:

• No Related NRL News

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 47/64 (73%) (Last week: 6/8)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Storm
• Panthers
• Roosters
• Raiders
• Titans
• Broncos
• Sea Eagles
• Dragons

Notes

• We suspect that the Rabbitohs‘ injury issues will have saved a lot of punters from erroneously backing Souths this weekend. As good as the Bunnies are (and they are very good), nothing about this is a good match-up for South Sydney. Souths’ greatest strength is their red-hot offense that’s generated 26+ points in 6 of their 8 starts this year (with one of the two exceptions being against this week’s opponent, Melbourne). However, the Storm are one of the few teams with an offense even better than the Rabbits, racking up scores of 40+ in 4 of their past 5, and ranking 1st in the league for LBVOA and 2nd for TBVOA. Losing studs like Adam Reynolds and Cameron Murray this week will hurt, but they weren’t as good as Melbourne in the first place. On the defensive side of the ball they’re solid, but again just a little bit worse than the Storm. After a strong start to the year, they’ve been gashed for 9 tries and 15 line breaks over the past fortnight, overwhelmingly down their right side (numbers that should have Justin Olam and Josh Addo-Carr licking their lips). Finally, it’s important to note that Souths’ offense works best when their forwards are rolling over the advantage line – something that never happens against a Storm side ranked a distant 1st in RMCVOA. Given Melbourne’s superiority in all of South Sydney’s strengths, it should come as no surprise that Melbourne have won their last 5 straight against Souths (and for those of you who put stock in historical numbers, they’ve won 29 of 35 meetings between these sides, ever). Melbourne were going to win anyway, and now they’re a decent shot to win big.
• This week the Sharks face the second leg of their Tour of Pain, following a 40-14 spanking at the hands of Melbourne. Though there’s an argument to be made that their offense is getting better – their 5 line breaks last weekend was the equal-most anyone has put on the Storm this season – their D is absolutely no match for any of the top attacking sides (and frankly, struggles against the mediocre ones). Though they’ve had a few reasonable defensive outings (specifically, limiting St George-Illawarra, North Queensland and Canterbury to just 2 line breaks each), it should be noted that these efforts were against the offenses ranked 3rd-last, 2nd-last and last, and all were assisted by lopsided possession shares (55%, 57% and 58%). When they’ve faced offenses ranked in the top half of the league (and the Panthers are ranked 3rd), they’ve averaged over 26 points and 7 line breaks conceded per game (most recently, giving up 11 breaks to Melbourne). It’s hard to beat anyone if you give up 26 points; it’s even harder if you’re facing an opponent who’s yet to concede more than 16 points in a game all year.
• Forgive us for not buying in to the Roosters‘ supposed “injury crisis” that the media is whipping up this week. To provide a counterpoint to the popular view, let’s take a walk through the Roosters’ injury ward, shall we?
  • Brett Morris: Absolute stud, and in career-best form. However, relative to last week (when they smoked Newcastle 38-4), his place in the 17 will be filled by a pretty capable player in James Tedesco (perhaps you’ve heard of him?). This swap is at best sideways, and arguably an improvement from last week’s side.
  • Lindsay Collins: An honest toiler of a middle forward, but one whose minutes have been declining (he hasn’t played more than 44 minutes in a game since Week 2). Best known to most fans from when they read last year’s Queensland Origin team list and exclaimed “who the f#$% is Lindsay Collins?”.
  • Luke Keary: A mega-stud, but one who’s in the process of being Wally Pipped by Sam Walker. From three matches, Keary produced 7 try assists and 5 line break assists. In the 5 games since, Walker has generated 12 and 13(!). Another non-issue.
  • Boyd Cordner: Inexplicably the NSW Origin captain, and hasn’t been relevant for three years. Gets dizzy cutting the oranges.
  • Jake Friend: Retired, so not actually on the team any more. Plus, hasn’t played since Week 1, and nobody seemed to notice.
  • Freddy Lussick: Undersized hooker and veteran of 9 first grade games. Only recognisable due to surname.
  • Lachlan Lam: Not actually injured; named in the reserves. Again, famous surname.
  • Billy Smith: Has played 2 career games, most recently in 2019.

And there you have it. Though we’ll concede that the list is long, it’s hardly devastating, and as my wife has repeatedly reassured me, length isn’t everything. Indeed, we’d argue that the most significant absence isn’t an injury at all (the one-week suspension of Sitili Tupouniua). We’re not suggesting that the Roosters are a certainty – the Eels are a decent side, and one that’s shown they can jag the odd win against a heavyweight (notably in Week 2, where they rolled the Storm 16-12). However, we don’t consider Parramatta a genuine heavyweight themselves; rather, they’re the ‘best of the rest’ – the top of the food chain amongst all the sides in the tier below Melbourne, Penrith, Souths and Sydney. They’ve looked fabulous of late, but have yet to demonstrate they’re anything other than flat-track bullies. Yes, they’ve scored the 4th-most points in the NRL this year (and oh, by the way, the Roosters are 2nd), but they’ve hardly played anyone relevant. Through eight rounds, they’ve played just 2 teams currently in the Top 8 – and in those two games, their points scored dropped from 33.5 points-per-game to just 14. This should be a cracking game, but as it stands, we don’t see any reason not to continue putting our faith in the Roosters to prove the doubters wrong.

• The Raiders/Knights clash might be the most unpredictable of the weekend, with both sides plagued by inconsistency. We’re backing the Raiders here, on the grounds that last week they started showing signs of their old selves. Against Souths, the Raiders posted their season-high RMVOA (5.84%) and their 2nd-highest LBVOA (32.60%). For an offense that had been badly sputtering, it was somewhat reassuring to see Canberra come out and drop 20 points on the league’s 4th-best defense. Yes, they got shredded on D by the Rabbitohs, but at this point, who hasn’t? In the meantime, the Knights are giving up huge numbers to everyone, conceding 4+ tries in their past 6 straight, including against offensive minnows the Dragons, Sharks and Tigers. Our inclination is that the Knights might be just the right opponent to play Canberra into a little bit of form, but we say that with some trepidation – Newcastle do have the sort of game-breaking ability that seems to come out of absolutely nowhere (just ask Cronulla). If Canberra don’t turn up, the Knights are certainly good enough to punish them.
• Fresh off their disappointing capitulation to the Broncos last weekend, the Titans wouldn’t mind getting a shot at the Tigers as they attempt to right the ship. Playing Wests is like looking into a carnival mirror for the Gold Coast, with the Tigers essentially a silly-looking reflection of themselves. Both sides are better on the offensive side of the ball, and both are utterly hopeless on D (their Defense VOAs of 34.50% and 34.51% are essentially identical, and place them 2nd-last and 3rd-last in the league). If there’s an area where one side has the clear upper hand though, it’s in the forwards. While the Tigers have just 2 forwards averaging 10 or more metres-per-carry (one of which is Russell Packer, who’s been banished into another dimension), the Titans have a whopping 7. Unsurprisingly, this disparity sees the Titans ranked 4th in RMVOA vs the Tigers’ last, and is likely to see the Titans dominate field position. Given their defensive frailties, field position is likely to be vital for both sides, as neither is capable of defending their own line for an extended period. We tip the Titans to spend the most time down their opposition’s end, and that is likely to result in points, points, points.
• Who ever would have guessed that picking your best attacking weapon would result in scoring more points? This was the lesson (hopefully) learnt by Broncos coach Kevin Walters, who watched Anthony Milford contribute 1 try assist and 1 line break assist on his return to the line-up (his replacement, Tom Deardon, had contributed zero and zero in 5 starts). Though we need to keep in mind the fact that they were playing the 2nd-worst D in the league, the good news here is that the Cowboys aren’t much better – they rank 4th-last on defense with a VOA of 34.10%. Last weekend, North Queensland gave up 20 points and 8 line breaks to the Warriors – the 2nd highest totals the Warriors have posted all season. With Milford back, we’re suddenly somewhat optimistic about Brisbane’s prospects against an opponent we believe has an inflated ladder position (which is saying something, given the fact the Cows are running 12th). We believe the Broncos are better than the Cowboys on both sides of the ball, and at $2.35 they’re irresistible value.
• Though we’re happy enough to back the Sea Eagles this week, we disagree with the lopsidedness of the current odds in this one. With Manly possessing perhaps the lowest-quality forward depth in the NRL, losing both Marty Taupau and Josh Aloiai at the same time is alarming. With no forward depth to speak of, the Sea Eagles are left trotting out a bench of: Cade Cust (a half/hooker); Moses Suli (a slow, soft centre); Zac Saddler (an edge forward with 2 career starts) and Toafofoa Sipley (a giant middle). We can only assume that Suli is likely to play a bit of middle, an option that could be considered experimental at best. Ordinarily, we’d immediately tip against any bench this dire, except for one thing: Manly’s forwards are always terrible, so how much worse could these guys possibly be? We wrote above about the lack of punch in the Tigers’ pack; well, the Eagles are somehow worse, possessing just 1 forward who averages over 10m per carry (the impressive Sipley). The rest of the pack is terrible anyway, as evidenced by Emperor Plod Trbojevic being permitted to plod away for 80 minutes every week. So, while it’s true that Manly lack the depth to replace their middles, the fact of the matter is that the extraordinarily high likelihood of Manly’s pack getting dominated should be baked into their projection already – if you ever thought they were likely to compete for yardage, you’re delusional (though it is also worth mentioning that New Zealand are without their two best forwards – Addin Fonua-Blake and Ben Murdoch-Masila – themselves). Instead, if you’re tipping Manly, you’re backing Tom Trbojevic to bust the game open on his own, from wherever on the field they happen to be at the time. As it stands, we don’t mind if the Warriors are able to camp down Manly’s end, as Manly’s D has actually been surprisingly decent of late – they withstood all New Zealand threw at them four weeks ago, and they should be able to withstand it again. Assuming the D holds up, Tom should be good enough to be the difference-maker; though with massive packs like Brisbane and Parra in their upcoming schedule, their D is really going to be tested over the next month.
• The Bulldogs remain the worst team in football, but they’ll never get a better chance for a win than this week’s Dragons side. Saints are on a three-match losing streak, hitting rock bottom in an embarrassing loss to the Tigers last weekend. A combination of injuries and suspensions sees them trotting out a NSW Cup-standard backline, with Tyrell Fuimaono a prime target to get abused. The last time we saw Fuimaono in the backline was in 2019, where the Tigers singled him out on their way to an upset 30-4 annihilation of Penrith. Though Fuimaono has been surpisingly decent this season, he lacks both the decision-making and mobility to defend at centre, where opposition sides can easily isolate him and beat him one-on-one. The good news for Fuimaono though, is that we doubt the Dogs are actually good enough to take advantage. We’re guessing he’ll go on the left, which sees him up against Will Hopoate. Besides being slow for an outside back, through eight rounds, Hopoate has… (checks notes)… 1 line break and 8 tackle breaks (which is somehow better than his centre partner Corey Allan, with 0 and 11). Should Fuimaono be forced to spend an extended period at centre, it’s just a matter of time before he gets torched so bad that he gets the hook. But will it be this week? Probably not.

 

Related NRL News & Posts:

• No Related NRL News

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 41/56 (73%) (Last week: 6/8)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Rabbitohs
• Storm
• Titans
• Panthers
• Eels
• Roosters
• Warriors
• Dragons

Notes

• The sorry state of the Raiders is one of the great unsolved mysteries of 2021 so far. After a dominant opening fortnight, the Raiders have gone completely off the boil since their injury-induced second half meltdown against New Zealand in Round 3. Canberrans looking for a glimmer of hope may point to their 24-point outing against North Queensland as a sign of offensive improvement, but even that’s a mirage. That performance needs to be put in context: the Cowboys are averaging over 30 points conceded per game thus far, and the Raiders’ 24-point effort was in fact the second fewest points the Cows have conceded in a game this year. Indeed, the Raiders’ LBVOA of -35.85% was their 2nd-worst performance so far, and should put paid to suggestions that English hooker Josh Hodgson is the problem. As for what is the problem, it’s hard to pinpoint. Jack Wighton has been significantly less effective this season, producing an unusually low 6 try involvements through 7 games, a figure that places him 41st in the league. Defensively, their edges have been uncharacteristically brittle, with every Raiders outside back currently outside the top 300 players in the league for tackle efficiency (remember, in any given week there are only 272 players on the field in the entire competition – so that’s extremely bad), leaving them 4th-worst in TBCVOA. They’re making the 4th-most errors per game as a team, and forcing the 2nd-fewest repeat sets. None of this is good news, but it’s not unfixable, either. Missed tackles are of less significance than line breaks conceded, and in that respect they’re still above average; their errors are bad but as a stat, tend to be volatile (meaning that they may change significantly from week to week); and it would be easy enough to increase their forced drop-outs with a tweak to their attacking kicking tactics. And as for Jack Wighton? He’d be pleased to hear that this week he’ll be facing a Rabbitohs side that last week conceded 10 line breaks all on the right hand side of their posts (exactly opposite where Wighton typically lines up in attack). We’re not about to tip Canberra against a heavyweight like Souths, but we’re not giving up on them, either, and think they have the potential to make this a lot more competitive than the odds would suggest.
• We really shouldn’t need to tell you not to pick the Sharks this week. Having just gotten rolled by the worst team in football (Canterbury), they face an away trip to meet the juggernaut that is the Storm. We’re sure Cronulla’s crummy D appreciated a brief reprieve in getting to face the hopelessly inept Bulldogs’ offense, but last weekend’s 2 line breaks conceded was just the 3rd time this season they’ve conceded less than 6 in a game (and the other two were against the offenses ranked 3rd-last and 2nd-last). In the Storm, they’ll be up against the best offense in rugby league, who’ve won their past 4 games by an average margin of 26.5. Look elsewhere.
• Having spent the past fortnight railing against Kevin Walters’ decision to bench Anthony Milford, you can imagine our immense frustration in seeing Milford recalled to the Broncos side this week, only to be paired not with Brodie Croft – who matched it with Nathan Cleary just two weeks ago – but rather, with Tyson Gamble. For those of you asking ‘Tyson WHO?’, it’s Tyson Gamble – a 24-year-old half who’s played just three first grade games since making his debut with the Tigers back in 2018 – losing all three, and producing an average score of less than 11. Look – it’s a small sample size; maybe he does well. But you have to wonder why on earth Walters is pursuing this spin-the-wheel approach to his halves combination. In the first three weeks, the Milford/Croft combination produced 10 tries and 18 line breaks; in the four games since, they’ve managed just 5 and 10. Granted, they’ve faced some sterner defenses in that time, but it nonetheless represents a catastrophic collapse. Put simply, Walters’ interference is making the team worse, not better. Which is a shame, because the Titans are a talented, but beatable team. While the Gold Coast bring a high-octane offense with points to burn, they also feature the league’s 4th-worst defense – creating an avenue to victory if you can keep pace in a shootout (as South Sydney did last week). Sadly, the 1.25 tries per game that Brisbane are averaging since dumping the Milford/Croft combo probably isn’t going to cut it.
• With 13 tries in two weeks since Tom Trbojevic returned, Sea Eagles fans could be forgiven for believing that they’re suddenly the real deal. Trbojevic has inspired back-to-back thumpings, with his 7 try involvements placing him 2nd in the team on the year behind Daly Cherry-Evans – in just 2 appearances. This tells us two things. One, Tom is unbelievable. But two – the rest of the team is woeful. Trbovejic has personally accounted for more than half of Manly’s tries since returning, and a third of their tries for the entire season. Tom isn’t making everyone else better – if he were, somebody else might also be contributing. Rather, he’s just carrying the load entirely on his own. And while that may be effective against scrub defensive units like the Titans and Tigers (who rank 4th-last and last in defense), it’s unlikely to get it done against a Panthers squad yet to concede more than 2 tries in a game this year. Indeed, Penrith couldn’t have hoped for a better preparation for facing a mediocre team getting carried by a superstar fullback, after seeing off exactly such a team last weekend (the Newcastle Knights and their own freak, Kalyn Ponga). Penrith took Ponga completely out of the game by dominating field position, and forcing Newcastle to spend all their time with the footy slogging it out of their own end. We’d expect a similar strategy here, looking to kick early and deep, then camp down deep in Manly territory. This isn’t a strategy likely to lend itself to another 46-6 belting (like what they did to the Eagles a month ago), but should be effective for nullifying Turbo and grinding out a win.
• Trent Barrett described the Bulldogs‘ victory over Cronulla last weekend as the “best win” he’s been involved in as a player or a coach. We suppose that’s one way to describe it. We would have gone with “most fortunate”, or “flukiest”, or if we were feeling cruel, “most ill-deserved”. Canterbury ultimately finished ahead on the scoreboard, but that’s the only place they looked good. They were comprehensively smoked in every conceivable statistical category, like line breaks (5 to 2), run metres (1798 to 1372) and tackle breaks (37 to 14). Yes, they won, but they contributed absolutely nothing to achieving it, instead standing idly by as Cronulla butchered try after try after try. Oh, and the Sharks also had to spend 10 minutes down a bloke for one of the softest sin bins you’re ever likely to see. We suppose it could be the “best win” Barrett is likely to experience all year, but that’s only because there’s unlikely to be a lot of competition. Parra by 24+.
• We quite like the value in the Roosters this weekend, with their current price around $1.50. Punters no longer seem to be perceiving them as an elite team since Luke Keary went down for the year, but in practice, they’ve hardly missed a beat. Although they got shut down by Melbourne, they’ve managed 26+ in their other three games since the arrival of Sam Walker, most recently putting 34 points on the Dragons’ 6th-ranked defense. Against the Knights they’ll get a favourable matchup, with Sydney #3 for LBVOA going up against a Newcastle D ranked 4th-last for LBCVOA. The Knights have been gashed for 5+ line breaks in 5 of their 7 games so far, and have conceded 4 or more tries in their last 5 straight. We’d expect that pattern to continue against a red-hot Roosters offense.
• The Cowboys arrive this week in the middle of the least convincing 3-game winning streak we can remember. They’ve been squeaking home against ordinary opposition, winning by an average margin of just 6 points. On the surface their offense has looked better, posting 26+ points per game through this period, after managing just 36 points total through the opening four weeks. But let’s look a little closer at that – they’ve faced the defenses ranked last, 2nd last, and 10th, with their match against Canberra seeing their line break total drift back down to 3. Against the Warriors, they’ll face a D similar in standard to that of the Raiders – meaning they should be able to find a few openings, but dropping another 20+ points seems unlikely. The Warriors’ D is exploitable, but it seems to take a decent offense to do that. New Zealand have been absolutely destroyed by the Storm, Roosters and Raiders (back when Canberra were still good), to the tune of 19 tries conceded in 3 games. But in their remaining 4 games, they’ve conceded just 9 total. This typical defensive competence is bolstered by extraordinarily good discipline (they’ve made the fewest errors this year), which has helped them win the possession battle in 5 of 7 games so far. With the lion’s share of the footy against a pretty weak Cowboys’ defense, we’d expect the Warriors to scrounge out enough points for the win.
• The Tigers are now in free-fall, and we have to wonder where it’s going to end. Their defense has been dismal all season long (they’ve now conceded 5 or more line breaks in every game this year, and missed 30+ tackles in 6 of 7), but now their offense is imploding, too. There was a point there for a while where the Tigers’ O was racking up enough points to win but getting let down by their defense, but the past fortnight they’ve been bog average on both sides of the ball. This period coincides with the loss of hooker Jacob Liddle, whose 0.8 try involvements per game would be really handy right about now (this may not sound like a lot, but consider that the team collectively has managed just 1.5 tries per game without him, and hasn’t been able to replace that production in the hooking position, with Jake Simpkin yet to contribute any). They get Joey Leilua back this weekend which could help, but he’s notoriously hot-and-cold, and regardless, the Dragons’ D has been surprisingly stout so far (last week’s whooping from the Roosters, notwithstanding). Like the Raiders, we’re not writing the Tigers off completely – they have shown glimpses of ability at times – but it doesn’t seem wise to pin your hopes to this team at the moment.

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2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 35/48 (73%) (Last week: 5/8)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Panthers
• Rabbitohs
• Eels
• Sharks
• Raiders
• Sea Eagles
• Roosters
• Storm

Notes

• We were certainly surprised to see the red-hot Panthers offense held to just 20 points last weekend by the typically apathetic Brisbane D. This was Penrith’s second-lowest total so far, and had some asking the question: did Brisbane show the blueprint for stopping the Panthers’ offense? The answer, in our view, is… sort of? If anything Brisbane showed that perhaps the best way of slowing Penrith’s scoring is to not allow them anywhere near your red zone. Brisbane’s forwards totally dominated the Panthers’ middles for much of the game, with Penrith only really gaining any sort of momentum in the final quarter. Only 2 Penrith forwards gained over 100m, and only one made over 10m-per-carry (you deserve a prize if you’re able to guess that that player was… Matt Eisenhuth). Hats off to Brisbane for that, but if that’s the blueprint, there are very few packs in the NRL capable of executing it (least of all the Knights, who last week gave up 100m+ to 5 Cronulla forwards). And outside of keeping Penrith down the other end, Brisbane didn’t really have an answer to Penrith’s O, who still managed to post 6 line breaks for the 4th time this year (one of just 4 teams to do this, along with the Storm, Roosters and… Knights?). If this isn’t alarming to Newcastle, it really should be. Generally speaking, Newcastle’s offense is plenty good enough to keep them in a shoot-out (and for you naysayers who claimed that the loss of Mitchell Pearce would spell doom for Newcastle’s attack, we’ll point out that their LBVOA has lifted from 2.71% with Pearce to 23.91% since losing him – Kalyn Ponga is the man in Newie, don’t forget that). But even if we consider the Knights’ offense the equal of Penrith’s (and to be honest, they’re still a little way off, primarily because of a lack of tackle-breakers on their edges), there’s still the small matter of defense. While the Panthers have the luxury of being able to tackle their way to victory if need be (they’re yet to concede more than 2 tries in a game this season), the Knights’ D is remarkably sieve-like (yet to concede fewer than 3 tries in a game this season). And if it’s possible, they’re somehow getting worse, leaking 17 line breaks over the past fortnight – 4 more than the Panthers have conceded all season. It’s hard to see a path to victory for Newcastle in this one.
• There’s certainly a pattern forming for the Titans. In the three games they’ve won, they’ve averaged 12 errors, 3 total penalties conceded and a LBVOA of 61.84%. In the three games they’ve lost, those numbers have imploded to 15.67 errors, 6.67 penalties and a LBVOA of -31.42%. Put differently, the Titans seem to either be very good or totally shithouse, with very little in between. The difficulty we’re having at the moment is trying to predict which weeks they’re going to suck. It could be that their offense struggles to click as a result of the higher error counts, and so when they play teams who typically force a high number of opposition errors (Canberra and Manly are 1st and 3rd in this stat, and both clubbed the Titans) they’ll be a decent chance at a meltdown. If so, good news: the Rabbitohs are 10th in opposition errors. But bad news: the Rabbitohs are also awesome. We expect the loss of Latrell Mitchell to slow their offense some, but over the past month it’s actually been their defense that’s had us sit up and take notice. They’ve conceded just 6 tries and 7  line breaks over their past 4 games combined, and allowed over 1300m just once. With defense this good, it’ll be difficult for the Titans to generate much offense, regardless of whether they’re on or off. If we were to guess, we fancy the Titans will turn in a good showing Friday night, but ultimately lose regardless.
• We’ve been writing for weeks about how the Broncos are better than they’ve been getting credit for, and that the main missing ingredient for them was defensive line speed. Apparently they got the message, turning in an extremely impressive (and uncharacteristically enthusiastic) defensive display against Penrith. The tragedy for Brisbane is that their uptick in performance is likely to be misattributed to the dropping of Anthony Milford, leaving them in a “two steps forward, three steps back” type of situation. Not to put too fine a point on it, but not only did Brisbane not perform better due to the absence of Milford, but if they’d just left him in they’d have probably won. Allow us to clarify: yes, the return of Brodie Croft was long overdue (we explained last week why we felt he shouldn’t have been dropped in the first place). His kicking game and game management was exactly what Brisbane had been missing with Milford/Deardon directing the offense. But by pairing him with Deardon rather than Milford, they left themselves without anyone capable of threatening Penrith’s D, despite a mountain of possession deep in Penrith’s end (they ultimately managed just 2 tries, one off a kick, and one off an extremely dubious pass from Croft). If we accept that Croft is there to give the offense shape, you have to wonder what exactly it is that Deardon is supposedly bringing. It’s certainly not attacking nous, what with his 0 try assists and 0 line break assists through 4 games (the apparently-terrible Milford leads the team with 3 and 5, respectively). Unsurprisingly, this combination produced the team’s 2nd-lowest LBVOA of the season so far, despite having the best platform to work from (on the back of their highest RMVOA of the year). If you’re a team such as Brisbane who’ve conceded 5+ line breaks in every game this year against teams who aren’t Canterbury, it’s critically important that they’re able to generate points, and we have absolutely no faith whatsoever that this combination has it in them. If the Eels are able to beat Brisbane in the middle (as they have just about everybody else), then the Broncos will have absolutely nothing going for them, and be staring down the barrel at another flogging.
• The Sharks turned in easily their best attacking display of the season in their loss to the Knights, posting season-highs in line breaks, offloads and run metres, while making just 4 errors. Now bolstered by the dual return of Shaun Johnson and Josh Dugan, you have to wonder if this could be the start of something for Cronulla, after an uninspiring start to the season. In any event, there should be plenty of points coming against a Bulldogs side who’ve conceded 4+ tries in every game this season, and who couldn’t even get it done against the only comparably terrible team in the NRL. Sharks by 18+.
• At what point do we start worrying about the Raiders? After starting the season looking every bit as good as usual, they’ve now leaked 5+ tries in 3 of their past 4, most recently getting pumped 35-10 by Parramatta. They seem to be suffering from a similar ailment to that which has befallen the Broncos for much of the season – they get visibly fatigued, start bleeding run metres, and then line breaks and tries follow. Against the Warriors, this was to be expected (they were out of troops mid-way through the first half). But it’s since started looking like a bit of a pattern. Against the Panthers, they gave up just 710m and 2 line breaks during an impressive first half, before running out of steam and bleeding 1028m and 3 breaks in the second. Against Parra they were unlucky to be trailing at the break, giving up just 753m and 2 line breaks; then, they capitulated for 890m and 5 line breaks after half-time. In matches such as this one, against an error-prone Cowboys side, you’d expect they should have plenty of time to catch their breath while North Queensland are milling around in their own in-goal. But against anyone willing to push the pace, we’re starting to doubt whether or not Canberra can keep up.
• Here’s a hot take: what if the player whose recent return has been the most significant for the Sea Eagles is not Tom Trbojevic, but is in fact… Morgan Harper? Wait! Before you rush to close the site and remove us from your bookmarks, hear us out. We’re not saying for a moment that Harper is better than Tommy Turbo (in fact, The Obstruction Rule is of the view that nobody is better than T. Trbojevic),but rather that Harper’s addition has had the most significant impact. It’d be easy – and lazy – analysis to point to Tommy’s return as some sort of miracle cure for Manly’s ills. Yes, they were better, and yes, Tom looked as good as ever, but a lot went into Manly’s dominant performance that was well outside Trbojevic’s control. Manly’s 95% first half completion rate was a big factor, as was the Titans’ woeful 16 errors. Trbojevic is very good, but he wasn’t catching the ball on his teammates’ behalves. And though the scoreline looks like a totally dominant 80 minute performance, it was closer to a dominant 15 minutes in the middle of the first half. In the second stanza, Manly turned in their typical clunky, error-riddled display, making 6 errors and just 1 line break (and Trbojevic did play that half, too). But, while it was nice to see Tom lift Manly to their best LBVOA of the season so far (26.01%), it wasn’t where their biggest improvement has come. Rather, it’s been on defense, and specifically on their right edge where Harper’s speedy decision-making has made everyone out there better. Though we maintain that Jason Saab remains the worst defender in the NRL (he’s the only player to have played more than 1  game and missed more tackles than he’s made), Moses Suli would be right up there, too. And what Harper’s showing is that in Des Hasler’s defense, a reasonable defensive centre can hide even the most grossly incompetent winger. The reason is that Hasler’s umbrella structure requires his edge defenders to do two key things: identify where the ball is going, and cut the play off before it gets there. Suli’s slow play recognition and glacial running speed makes him ill-fitted for this role, and results in Saab being forced to do more work than anybody would like. Harper, on the other hand, has been making a good fist of it, averaging 17.5 tackles per game vs Suli’s 10. By stopping the play there, Harper has been responsible for just 1 try conceded in his 2 starts (vs Suli’s 8 in 4), and has seen Manly’s LBCVOA improve from a dismal 33.13% with Suli (worst in the NRL) to -41.24% without (2nd). This has been the biggest difference for Manly, and is why we’re tipping them this week. We don’t agree that the Tigers are without a hope though, and to be honest, we fancy their offense is actually better than the Sea Eagles’ (at the very least, it’s certainly more consistent). But while Harper’s inclusion has seen Manly’s defense improve, the Tigers continue to leak 5+ line breaks every week – a staggeringly high number that doesn’t lend itself to winning a lot of football games. If we had any faith that the Tigers’ D was going to improve we’d be all over them here (and regardless, we still love them at $2.60), but we’re yet to see anything of the sort.
• They’ve had a good run, but last weekend showed the limits of the Dragons’ playing style. Their high-effort, low-ability brand of footy was successful for a while, but New Zealand last week exposed St George-Illawarra for what they are – a mediocre side that depends on their opponents beating themselves. Parramatta, Manly and Newcastle all obliged, making 12 or more errors against the Dragons, gifting ample opportunities to a side that otherwise struggles for metres and line breaks. The Warriors, on the other hand, did not – they made just 2 errors, starving the Dragons of possession and grinding out an unlikely victory. Though the Roosters are generally error-prone and may look like a good mark for the aggressive Dragons D, the problem here is that Sydney’s offense is that good, they’re unlikely to need much possession to run up a score, and their defense should be more than capable of turning St George away. We’d expect the Roosters to win here by at least 2 scores.
• The poor old Warriors just can’t catch a break, somehow losing both centres last weekend, in addition to the extended absence of Euan Aitken. That leaves them turning to Marcelo Montoya and apparently Jack Murchie as their new-look centre paring. We’d be surprised if Murchie ultimately starts in the centres (the bloke’s enormous and will have his comparative lack of mobility quickly exposed, if he does), with Reece Walsh looming in the reserves as a potential alternative. Regardless, the churn out wide really hurts New Zealand, who depend on their defense in order to be competitive (because their O is as stale as three-day-old bread). Trying to contain the Storm is a challenge at the best of times (their #1-ranked offense is no accident); trying to do it with makeshift edge combinations is near impossible.

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2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 30/40 (75%) (Last week: 5/8)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Panthers
• Knights
• Storm
• Titans
• Rabbitohs
• Raiders
• Dragons
• Cowboys

Notes

• You can’t blame Broncos coach Kevin Walters for wanting to make changes to a side that’s opened the season 1-4. After showing some signs of improvement to start the year, their past fortnight has been dismal, getting completely dismantled by Melbourne and Souths for a combined score of 75-12. Dumping centre Tesi Niu makes some sense – he’s been Brisbane’s worst defender and has done nothing with the ball in hand, either – but we firmly disagree with the dropping of Anthony Milford. If somebody deserves to be dropped from Brisbane’s spine it is clearly Tom Deardon, who has so far managed zero try assists and zero line break assists, doing his part in seeing the Broncos’ LBVOA drop from 11.28% pre-Deardon to -20.68% post-Deardon. We’d argue that Brodie Croft should never have been dropped in the first place (at least not for Deardon), but to now come in at the expense of the side’s only vaguely effective spine member is straight-up baffling. Milford ranks 1st in the team for try assists and line break assists, and 2nd in tackle breaks. Swapping him out at five-eighth for an out-and-out #7 like Croft leaves the team extremely light-on for attacking spark. In any event, it’s unlikely to matter – short of a calamitous injury toll, the Panthers are destined to romp in – but you still have to question the merits of a team selection that makes Brisbane’s offense visibly worse in the same week they face the league’s best defense. Bizarre.
• We were shocked early in the week to see the Knights open as rank outsiders, but following the Sharks’ sacking of coach John Morris, it seems that confidence in Cronulla is evaporating. To be clear, we were always taking Newcastle here, regardless. Some may have been impressed by Cronulla’s surprising half-time lead over Sydney, but that result was more a symptom of what the Roosters were doing than any meaningful contribution from the Sharkies. In the first half, the Roosters gifted the Sharks a mass of extra opportunities, making 5 errors and conceding 4 penalties, to help Cronulla into scoring positions. Even so, the Sharks could only manage 12 first half points. In the second stanza, however – where the Roosters tightened things up with just 2 errors and 1 penalty conceded – the Sharks had all the same problems as usual. They struggled badly for yardage (outgained by over 200m in the second half alone) and line breaks (just 1). And as you might expect, their points dried up as a result. It’s this offensive ineptitude that has us liking Newcastle here. The Knights showed last week that even in a losing effort and without their halfback they’ve still got plenty of creativity in them, posting their season-high LBVOA (39.26%) and running in 3 tries, despite a mere 44% possession share. The Knights didn’t lose because they can’t score, they lost because they got absolutely shredded on their right edge – a right edge that should be significantly better this week with the return of star centre Bradman Best and five-eighth Kurt Mann. Assuming even a marginal improvement on D, the Knights are plenty well-equipped to take care of Cronulla (who, frankly, don’t defend that well anyway).
• We’re not inclined to tip them head-to-head, but seeing the Roosters listed around $3 looks like a bit of an oddity nonetheless. Sure, they’re still without Luke Keary and are onto their 4th-string(?) hooker now, but does anybody actually watch them play? Not only are they not playing badly, they arguably look as good as ever. Heck, they even gave the Sharks a 14-point head-start and reeled them in in under 20 minutes (ultimately getting home by 2 scores). Keary’s a great player, but teenage sensation Sam Walker has already passed him for line break assists, and finds himself ranked 3rd overall in the league after just 2 games. They’ve managed 58 points in two outings without Keary, and have a defense ranked 4th in the NRL (vs the Storm‘s 2nd). We’re inclined to agree that taking Melbourne at home is the safe option, but Sydney’s current price is irresistible.
• It’s an absolute tragedy for the Sea Eagles that Dylan Walker did his hammy last weekend, as his injury has cost them the opportunity to fire the NRL’s worst defender, Jason Saab, into the sun. Instead we get a direct swap of Tom Trbojevic for Walker at fullback; a significant upgrade, to be sure, but one that does nothing to address Manly’s biggest problem – their shockingly bad defense. Their D was made to look tolerable last weekend by New Zealand’s pedestrian offense, but they’ll get no such luxury this weekend against a Titans side that were pretty close to perfect in their first half against Newcastle. The Gold Coast remain the league’s most ill-disciplined, having made the most errors and conceded the 6th-most total penalties per game. But there’s never been a question about their attacking firepower, and last weekend we finally got to see what would happen if the Titans stopped sabotaging themselves. The answer was a clinical 26-point first half demolition job, in which they made 6 line breaks, 15 tackle breaks and outgained their opponent by over 300m. This week they’ll get to face a pathetic Manly pack who’ve been outgained in 4 of 5 contests so far, and get to unleash David Fifita on the worst defensive edge in the competition. If the Titans play anywhere near their potential, Manly are going to get absolutely whaled on.
• We never thought we’d see the day that we come to the defense of Luke Brooks, but here we are. For whatever reason, Brooks has been the subject of a media hatchet job this week, with all and sundry falling over themselves to dump on the Tigers half following Wests’ pathetic display against North Queensland. The mainstream logic seems to be that “they’ve got a good coach now, so Brooks must be the problem”. But hold up a second – the Tigers lost despite scoring 30 points. That sort of total should always be enough to win; rather, this loss belongs at the feet of the defense. Which begs the question – why exactly does Michael Maguire escape criticism? Because almost a decade ago he won a single premiership with a squad so stacked that even Anthony Seibold could get them to a preliminary final? He was brought in to add a tough, gritty attitude and defense to a club that’s had a soft underbelly for years, and through five rounds their D is now worse than it was a year ago (and a year ago, it wasn’t very good). If you really want to know why they’re losing, we’d suggest that their 32 points conceded per game would be a good place to start. And this is somehow meant to be Brooks’ fault? Please. Brooks may not be good, but if nothing else, he’s certainly been good enough, ranking in the NRL’s Top 10 for try assists, try involvements and line break assists. If his defense didn’t persistently let him down, he’d instead be getting talked about as one of the competition’s most improved players. Anyway, the Tigers likely get pumped here, and after the Rabbitohs put another 30+ on them, we look forward to hearing more about how Brooks is to blame.
• It seems to be the case every year that as soon we give in and accept that the Eels may indeed be legit, they come out and disappoint us with an ordinary loss. And so, like clockwork, they turned in a clunker against St George-Illawarra. In Parra’s defense, they were on the losing end of almost every dud call last Sunday night (of which there were plenty), and even on a bad day, their metre-eating offense still managed to churn out another 1500m+ day. That being said, any time you give up 4 line breaks to the Dragons you should be disappointed (the only other teams to do so this year were the Cowboys and Sea Eagles, the worst and 4th-worst defenses in the league – that’s  not a list you want to be on). Our biggest concern here is the fact that the game plan successfully employed by St George – one that in essence involves bashing their opponent into submission – is exactly the same style that the Raiders like to turn to in order to shift momentum in their favour. Canberra tried this against Penrith last Friday night, and were able to gain some ascendancy through the opening half hour, before the Panthers countered with a lift in tempo and playing with increasing width (every Panthers outside back finished with 11 runs or more). The Eels would do well to attempt the same strategy, but that will be made harder by the loss of Dylan Brown, and the fact that comparatively, the Eels’ centres aren’t very good: the Panthers’ pairing of Paul Momirovski and Matt Burton (8 try involvements, 9 line breaks and 32 tackle busts) are a fair way ahead of the Eels’ Tom Opacic and Marata Niukore (5 try involvements, 2 line breaks and 22 tackle breaks). Penrith showed a blueprint for how to beat Canberra, but we’re not convinced the Eels are capable of replicating it.
• After five rounds of footy, it suddenly appears that the Dragons are who we thought the Warriors were – an aggressive, hard-working unit who are able to compensate for a lack of attacking ability with pure effort. They have an unsustainably high try-to-line break ratio (21:21, 2nd only to Cronulla, who will come crashing back to earth any minute now) that will likely see their points totals regress as the season wears on, but as long as they’re out-enthusing their opponents, they should continue to get results when they play against middling opposition. And ‘middling’ might be a generous description for New Zealand, who over the past three weeks, have just been getting worse and worse. We wrote last week about how their defense has fallen off a cliff since Round 2, and then they came out and somehow also got worse on offense, scoring just 12 points against a Manly side who came in averaging 39 points conceded per game. And they could only manage 12? We honestly thought that the Warriors would end up being a shot at a finals berth on the back of consistently strong efforts, despite a lack of talent in the spine. Instead, it appears instead that may be a better description for St George.
• The Spoon Bowl has arrived early this year, and will pit the league’s worst offense (the Bulldogs) against the league’s worst defense (the Cowboys). It’s difficult to write much about either side without it seeming cruel, so we’ll just point to the expected return of Jason Taumalolo against the league’s worst forward pack as a possible point of difference. Also, the Cows managed to score as many points last week as the Bulldogs have scored all season combined (34). So we suppose we’ll take North Queensland.

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