2022 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: 69/108 (64%) (Last Week: 6/8)
2021 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)
2020 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)
2019 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)
2018 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)
2017 Season Results:Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
- Rabbitohs by 16
- Cowboys by 10 – The Sea Eagles have looked a lot better the past two weeks, though at this stage it’s still not clear whether their spike in form was due to having their best half (Kieran Foran) running the show, or the fact they’ve played 2 of the Bottom 4 defenses over that period (we fancy it’s a little bit of both). While the Eagles would have been expected to post a few decent scores anyway considering the quality of their opponents, it should be noted that behind the more direct play style of Foz, they’ve played with a LBVOA of 29.08%, compared to -8.19% with Daly Cherry-Evans at halfback – which is significant, remembering that by design, VOAs account for the relative strength of opponent. Even more impressive is the fact that Foran has managed it during a pretty significant injury crisis (at least DCE got to play a few games with Turbo, for example). In any event, DCE is back here, and they’re facing a pretty significant leap in defensive class against the Cowboys. Together, that has us a bit down on the Eagles’ prospects of making it 3-in-a-row. We don’t necessarily buy into the idea that the Cows belong in the same tier as the competition juggernauts Penrith and Melbourne, but there’s no doubting that their defense at least has been first class for most of the year, with them having conceded 2 or fewer tries in a whopping 10 of 14 matches played. Given the Eagles’ typical struggles on defense (they’d leaked 20+ points in 6 straight prior to their fortunate fortnight against the competition cupcakes, in which they had the added benefit of defending without DCE, who happens to have leaked the most line breaks in the competition among all NRL halves), it’s hard to imagine the Cowboys not finding enough points to win.
- Storm by 10 – Though the Broncos did a fabulous job to hang onto a narrow lead last weekend as Canberra came storming home (the tiring Broncos found themselves giving up over 10 metres-per-carry in the 2nd half, but nevertheless managed to keep a clean sheet), but as with Manly above, they’re facing a huge jump in class from Canberra to the Storm, and will have to do it without star halfback Adam Reynolds. The big concern for Brisbane here is their dependence on field position in order win games. With a dominant forward pack and ridiculous yardage production from their outside backs (they have 3 of their regular backline averaging over 10 metres-per-tote), the Broncos have recently been able to overcome a lack of creativity through sustained pressure attacking the opposition tryline (they average 4.5 tries per game when they’ve won the yardage battle, and only 3.3 when they lose it). This is good coaching that has Brisbane playing to their strengths, but we can’t help feeling like they’ll struggle when they run into elite run-stopping sides. Indeed, when facing teams with above-average RMCVOA (a category in which the Storm are the best in the league), they’ve won just 3 from 6. Without the benefit of sustained field position, we don’t believe the Broncos have the attacking spark to keep up with Melbourne at the best of times, let alone without Reynolds.
- Sharks by 12 – After a promising defensive start to the season in which the Titans conceded 4 or fewer line breaks in their opening 6 matches, the Gold Coast seem to have reverted to their bad old days as they’ve watched their season gradually slip away. Before we knew it, they’d leaked 5+ in 6 of their last 8, including their past 4 consecutive games. The tragedy for Titans fans will be the unfulfilled promise of what could have been – of the 4 matches they lost during that strong opening 6 weeks, they never lost by more than 8, and if a few balls had bounced differently they could have been much better placed on the ladder, and perhaps this rot wouldn’t have set in. But it has, and running into a Sharks outfit ranked 1st in the league for LBVOA isn’t going to be kind to them. We’re saying Cronulla by 12, but with the caveat that if Cronulla get out in front early, this definitely has the potential to get ugly. The Titans just seem to have a bit of quit in them.
- Panthers by as many as they feel like
- Roosters by 4 – It’s somewhat surprising to us that after nobody (other than us) gave the Roosters a chance of beating the Eels when these sides met in Round 10, they’re sitting just about even with the bookies coming into their rematch (but we suppose getting pumped by Canterbury will have that effect). For what it’s worth, we still prefer the Roosters, though with perhaps a little less conviction than we had last time. For a start, we still vividly remember the Eels steaming home in that match, falling just 7 points short of what had the potential to be an historic comeback. Secondly, we’re a little bit concerned about the possible toll that the Roosters’ recent run of close losses may have on their mindset. Since Round 7, all 3 of the Roosters’ wins have come looking extremely comfortable, with them leading by 20+ at some point of each game. But in all but one of their losses (the flogging they copped off Penrith), they’ve been nailbiters, in which over and over again they’ve fallen agonisingly short. They haven’t played badly at all (they have above average VOAs for both offense and defense), they just haven’t been winning. If this sounds familiar, it’s because it’s following a similar pattern to what the Titans went through to begin the season (and we all know how that turned out). For this reason, we feel like it’s getting to be crunch time for the Roosters, and Trent Robinson will know exactly how important it is to actually get the chocolates in a competitive match with a contender. And what better “contender” to beat than the pretend one with the 3rd-worst defense in the league?
- Raiders by 12 – While broadly speaking our provided tipping margin can be viewed as an indicator of our confidence in any particular tip, that isn’t so much the case here. For the record, we do feel pretty darn confident that the Raiders should handle the Knights without too much fuss. However, it’s near impossible to ever tip them by a huge margin given the ceiling that appears to be over their offense. Through 14 games, they’ve only scored more than 24 points twice, failing to exceed that mark even against defensive stragglers like the Gold Coast, Parramatta, New Zealand and Canterbury. Though Newcastle’s D frequently is terrible (they’ve leaked 30+ on 7 different occasions), we feel like the most likely outcome here is that the Raiders hit their points ceiling, and walk away comfortable (if underwhelming) winners 24-12.
- Tigers by 1 – We don’t want to be the ones to immediately pour cold water on Bulldogs fans after their enjoyable win over Parramatta last week, we do feel a bit of responsibility to point out that their stats were – for the most part – terrible, and the result had far more to do with the Eels bombing opportunities than anything particularly positive that the Doggies were doing. The Bulldogs missed more tackles (30 v 24), gave up more line breaks (5 v 2) and got absolutely hammered for field position (they were tackled just 12 times in Parra’s red zone, compared to 36 the other way). They made double-digit errors for the 12th time this year, conceded a further 13 total penalties, and conceded 3 line drop-outs. On any other week, these numbers would result in them getting absolutely belted (as they typical do) – it was largely good fortune that they managed to fluke a brace of intercept tries and snatch another handful of tries from kicks, increasing the scoreboard pressure that likely contributed to the Eels’ bed-wetting. It was nice that they won, but they weren’t good. Of course, the Tigers aren’t good either – they’ve lost their past two games by a combined score of 74-22. But their last game before that? They beat this week’s opponents, the Bulldogs, 36-22 while beating them in just about every statistical category you can think of (tries, line breaks, tackle busts, run metres, handling, possession, etc etc). The Bulldogs get back Josh Addo-Carr compared to the side that Wests pumped a month ago, while the Tigers themselves are adding Adam Doueihi, Daine Laurie and Luke Brooks. That’s some fair reinforcement for the Tigers considering how much better they were the last time they met, so we’re choosing to stick by the Tigpies, no matter how bad the past fortnight has been.