The Obstruction Rule

The latest NRL news, intelligent rugby league analysis, and innovative NRL statistics

The Obstruction Rule - Rugby league analysis, news, and VOA NRL statistics
  • VOA Ratings
    • VOA Explained
  • Features
    • Tips
    • Editorials
    • History
    • The Month In Review
    • The Greatest Game Of All
    • Culture
  • What Have We Learned
  • Teams
    • Brisbane Broncos News
    • Canberra Raiders News
    • Canterbury Bulldogs News
    • Cronulla Sharks News
    • Gold Coast Titans News
    • Manly Sea Eagles News
    • Melbourne Storm News
    • New Zealand Warriors News
    • Newcastle Knights News
    • North Queensland Cowboys News
    • Parramatta Eels News
    • Penrith Panthers News
    • South Sydney Rabbitohs News
    • St George Illawarra Dragons News
    • Sydney Roosters News
    • Wests Tigers News
  • Tips
  • About
You are here: Home / Home

NRL Tips – Week 11, 2022

May 19, 2022, 6:19 pm By Joel Leave a Comment

2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 50/80  (63%)  (Last Week: 5/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
  • Knights by 2 – After successfully tipping the Knights to end their 7-game losing run last week against Canterbury, we’re going back to the well again here. To be clear, this isn’t because Newcastle were terribly impressive in that win – a stodgy 16-6 win over the team coming last does little to fill us with confidence. Rather, this is all to do with with who’s missing for the Broncos – Adam Reynolds. You’d have to have been living under a rock to be unaware of the impact Reyno has had on Brisbane, but the sheer magnitude of his role in their offense can’t be understated. Reynolds has had a ridiculous 18 try involvements for a team that’s only scored 34 tries – a share of 53%. With Brisbane’s offense running almost entirely through Reynolds, that means that in his absence, their offense will almost certainly look completely different (and simply giving Tyson Gamble more touches is a very poor alternative). And whatever shape their offense takes, it’s extremely difficult to see them replacing his production. From 9 starts, Reynolds has amassed 11 try assists and 8 line break assists. From a combined 8 starts, his spine partners Te Maire Martin and Gamble have combined for just 3 and 7. Reynolds’ replacement – the highly-rated youngster Ezra Mam – has filled plenty of Broncos fans with excitement, but we fancy expectations of an immediate impact should be tempered a little bit: from 7 starts against lower-quality opposition in the Queensland Cup, Mam has just 3 try assists and 4 line break assists himself. If he’s not yet carving up in the second-tier, it feels a bit unreasonable to expect Mam to turn up and immediately provide anything resembling Reynolds’ production. So, Brisbane aren’t likely to look anything like themselves offensively, and to be frank, their offense was hardly setting the world alight in the first place (last week’s rout of Manly notwithstanding). They’ve been held to 3 or fewer line breaks in 6 of their 9 matches so far, leaning heavily on Reynolds’ right boot to keep their scores competitive. Without it, they likely become yet another dry offense that struggles for creativity, and we already saw the Knights knock over one such team last week. The Knights aren’t a particularly exciting-looking offense themselves, but with Dane Gagai and Tyson Frizell returning – as well as the mystery box addition of Anthony Milford – you have to think they’ll be at least as good as they were last week. And against this particular Broncos team, that should be just good enough.
  • Tigers by 4 – If you’re wondering why we’re not more enthusiastically tipping the Tigers here, it’s largely due to the type of game we’re expecting when the two lowest-ranked offenses in the NRL go head-to-head. It’s hard to imagine this game bringing any sort of offensive fireworks (between them, they have 13 outings in which they’ve been held to 2 tries or fewer, from 20 starts), and in low-scoring games, a single ref’s decision (or dropped ball in your own in-goal, as Tigers fans would remember all too well) can be the difference. That being said, we still prefer the Tigers – whatever bounce the Bulldogs may get from their coaching change may be more than outweighed by the sizeable absence of Josh Addo-Carr (who’s contributed 6 tries and 8 line breaks for a side who’ve otherwise had absolutely nothing – the next highest in these categories have made 2 and 3, respectively). We’re not expecting much, but in a match they need to win in order to prolong their relevance in the competition, we’d like to think the Tigers can get it done.
  • Eels by 2 – As with the above game, we’re not embracing the Eels anywhere near as enthusiastically as the bookies, and it’s not just because of our well-entrenched position that Parramatta are shockingly overrated (and absolutely nowhere near Top 4 quality, for the record). Rather, it’s to do with the structure of their offense, and how it matches up against how the Sea Eagles like to “defend” (if you can call whatever it is Manly’s been doing this year defense). You see, while Parra’s offense has admittedly been extremely productivethis season (they rank 5th in the league for Offense VOA, and have scored the 3rd-most tries), what’s interesting is wherethey generate most of their production. While many teams enjoy stripping sides for numbers and getting around defenses, the Eels prefer to attack a few defenders in, going through teams. This is may be at least partly due to their well-documented injuries in the outside backs, but their fondness for attacking through their second-rowers and halves is hardly new. Of the guys they’ve named this week, Dylan Brown, Clint Gutherson, Mitch Moses, Isaiah Papali’i, Shaun Lane and Ryan Matterson all have more line breaks than any of their three-quarters. And this isn’t just a quirk due to limited usage – both Bailey Simonsson and Will Penisini have played in all 10 matches, yet have just 2 tries and 4 line breaks… combined. The reason this is interesting is that against Des Hasler’s fast outside-in umbrella defense, three defenders in isn’t typically where the holes are, with teams so far cutting the Eagles up further wide. Unsurprisingly then, the Eels have struggled to post scores against Manly for a while – they’ve lost their last 3 straight against Manly, and haven’t scored more than 3 tries against them since 2019. With Manly playing so unbelievably shit in their last start, we can’t quite bring ourselves to actually tip them, but be warned: this may not be the slam dunk victory for Parramatta that many assume it will be.
  • Dragons by 1 – After writing at length last week about how we fancied the Dragons on account of their spine continuity, you can imagine how pleased we were to see Moses Mbye shuffled to hooker and Tyrell Sloan return to fullback (that is, we were not pleased. Not pleased at all.). The Dragons ultimately paid for that Anthony Griffin brain explosion, as Sloan completely wet the bed in his return to the side, costing his team the game (why one earth you’d parachute a teenage fullback with just 8 career starts into the top grade in torrential rain we just don’t know; but we’re sure immediately dropping him again will do wonders for his confidence and development). Without Mbye at fullback, the Dragons’ offense certainly loses a little bit, but to be fair, this match likely isn’t decided by anything St George-Illawarra do, anyway. Rather, it’s the Warriors who have the ability to take the match completely away from sides – unfortunately, the longer the season wears on, the less and less interested they look in actually competing. After a decent little period earlier in the year, their defense has completely given way, with New Zealand conceding 20+ points in their past 6 consecutive matches. In the past fortnight, they found themselves in two situations that you’d think would surely encourage them to fire up – playing against 11 men against Cronulla, and reeling in a big score against Souths. Rather than lift their defensive intensity, they conceded over 1500m in both starts, and averaged almost 40 missed tackles a game (indeed, even mid-comeback last week, they managed to miss 19 in the second half alone, despite the Bunnies only making 80 runs). We’re complete believers in the Warriors’ ability, but we have absolutely no faith whatsoever that they’ll actually turn up. And say what you like about the Dragons, they do at least turn up and have a go each week.
  • Storm by 6 – We were as shocked as anyone to see the Storm come crashing back to earth last week. Without Ryan Papenhuyzen and Jahrome Hughes, we didn’t actually expect them to win, but even if they had played, we’re not sure the result would have been any different. As good as those two blokes are, would the addition of a fullback and a half have stopped the Panthers from running for over 1600m? Watching Penrith run straight through the middle of the Storm, you might have thought they were exposing a blueprint for beating Melbourne. Unfortunately, there’s probably no other team than Penrith who are actually capable of putting that kind of yardage on Melbourne. The Storm have only conceded more than 1300m in one other game this season (Round 2, in which they were taken into Golden Point by Souths). We suppose North Queensland are as good a shot as anybody to make it three – they rank 3rd in the league for RMVOA, right between the aforementioned Rabbits and Panthers – but getting up towards Penrith-levels will be extremely difficult, and without that sort of yardage we can’t see them racking up that kind of total. Instead, we’re expecting a competitive, grinding game of field position; and if comes down to the wire, we’d rather be on the team featuring Cameron Munster and Hughes in the halves, rather than Tom Dearden and Chad Townsend (no offense).
  • Panthers by 10 – The Roosters are looking more and more like the Roosters with every passing week, and we really think they’re warming nicely into the season. That being said, they still haven’t quite reached ‘peak-Roosters’ yet, and even when they have been at their best, they haven’t been able to stop the Panthers. Penrith have posted 20+ in their past 4 straight against Sydney (winning all four), largely on the back of dominating the Roosters through the middle third. Coming off their demolition of the Storm (in which 5 Penrith forwards ran for over 100m), the Panthers should fancy their chances against a Roosters pack missing lock forward Victor Radley. Panthers-Roosters games are typically high quality and extremely entertaining; they’re also typically won by the blokes from the foot of the mountains.
  • Rabbitohs by 2 – Two weeks ago we wouldn’t have dreamed that this match would turn out to be so difficult to tip, but after watching the Raiders turn in a clinical dismantling of the Sharks – and seeing the Rabbitohs leak 20+ points for the 4th week in a row – this game is suddenly quite intriguing. For the Raiders, their defensive “improvement” is probably not so much an improvement as it is a correction, following a few weeks in which they gave up more tries than their numbers would have otherwise suggested. In 3 of their 10 games, the Raiders have conceded more tries than they have line breaks, and they’ve hit parity in another 3. This suggests that either they’re shockingly bad at defending kicks, or they’ve been at least a little bit unlucky defensively (the answer is probably somewhere in between). The bad news for Canberra is that the Bunnies are probably due for something similar. In amongst their 4 straight games conceding 20+, the Rabbits only gave up 3 line breaks in 3 of those, instead getting lit up for kick tries by Daly Cherry-Evans and Adam Reynolds. This may explain Ricky Stuart’s decision to keep Matt Frawley this week over Brad Schneider – Frawley is the best attacking kicker the Raiders have, and if there is indeed a weakness there for Souths, he’s probably their best chance of finding it. There’s not likely to much else for them though, with Canberra having been held to 2 or fewer tries in 6 different matches so far. In contrast, Souths consistently find scores, even while not really looking their best. We expect both teams’ defenses to be switched on and firing here, but eventually the Raiders may have to submit to the Rabbits’ firepower.
  • Sharks by 12 – Craig Fitzgibbon has immediately reversed his switch of Nicho Hynes to fullback, but to be honest, we don’t think Nicho’s re-positioning was the cause of the Sharks‘ upset loss last week. Quite simply, the Sharks are prone to odd explosion of errors, and once again, they simply turned over more ball than they were capable of defending. It might have made for difficult viewing, but it shouldn’t significantly change your perception of Cronulla – this was actually the 4th time this year that they’ve made 14+ errors in a game, and they’ve lost 3 of those (for those of you wondering, only the Tigers have been incapable of winning while being gifted a mountain of extra sets, losing 30-4). In the games immediately following the previous three stinkers, the Sharks are averaging less than 8 errors per game. So don’t hit the panic button – if anything, it’s more likely that they turn up and annihilate the Titans than it is they turn in another clunker.
Share:

Related NRL News & Posts:

  • No Related NRL News

Filed Under: Tipping

NRL Tips – Week 10, 2022

May 13, 2022, 6:00 pm By Joel Leave a Comment

2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 45/72  (63%)  (Last Week: 6/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

  • Knights by 4 – Magic Round kicks off tonight with Spoon Bowl 2022, treating fans to a match that should at least be competitive, if not necessarily of a high quality. After opening the season with back-to-back wins, the Knights now find themselves mired in a 7-game losing streak, a period that includes giving up 20+ in each of their last 5, after conceding just 10 combined points in the opening fortnight. If you’re looking for the cause of Newcastle’s ills through this period, look no further than their horrendous discipline. Through their past 5 matches, Newcastle are averaging almost 4 extra errors per game compared to their successful opening fortnight – that ends up as 4 extra sets handed to their opponents, 4 extra short fields they’re forced to defend, and 4 fewer opportunities to attack each game. This crummy handling then flows through into their other stats – when you take those sets off Newie and give them to their opponents, the result is their average possession share dropping from 56% to 44%. As their possession drops, so too does their net run metres – from +354m per game down to -377. That’s literally the length of 7 football fields worth of field position that the Knights are giving up. Without that field position, their tries scored have dropped by almost 3 per game, and their tries conceded has climbed by 5. And all because they suddenly started gifting field position and possession to their opponents. The good news here though is that in the Bulldogs, the Knights will be facing one of the few teams in the league with a worse error-rate than they have, and who routinely find themselves on the arse-end of possession, too. If we assume both sides’ handling will cancel each other out (and to be clear, if either team can turn in a relatively well-disciplined game, we’d fancy that team should win), then we have to give the edge to Newcastle for their potential to actually score a few tries. Kalyn Ponga is the best player on the field for either side, and he’ll be boosted by the return of his halfback, Adam Clune, and second-rower Mitch Barnett (the most important return though, may be that of Lachlan Fitzgibbon last week, who finally gives Ponga a dangerous edge-runner to pass to). The Dogs have the good fortune of trotting out an unchanged lineup, but it’s a lineup that has yet to score more than 3 tries in a match this season, and has registered a positive LBVOA just once (the Knights, by the way, have hit these marks 3 times each, despite their aforementioned woes). In short, all else being equal, we think the Knights are that little bit better than Canterbury (but it shows how far they’ve fallen that we’re having this discussion in the first place).
  • Sea Eagles by 2 – After 2 months of offering shockingly little with the ball in hand, the Sea Eagles‘ offense suddenly sprang into life last weekend against the Tigers, dropping season-highs for the team in tries (7), line breaks (10), tackle breaks (40) and run metres (1536). Turbo ran for almost 200m, and he, Keiran Foran and Daly Cherry-Evans combined for 4 line break assists and 4 try assists between them. Everything was once again right in the world. And just as well. Their defense has fallen off a cliff over the past four weeks, and giving up 4 tries and 7  line breaks to the 3rd-worst offense in football was a new low-water mark for the team. They’re getting consistently lit up on the right edge, with regular right-side players Jason Saab, Morgan Harper and DCE all currently among the Top 10 in the league for line break causes. As a result, Des Hasler has begun churning through combinations looking for something to stop the bleeding; unfortunately though, he’s yet to find anyone any better (you may be shocked to learn that replacements Tolutau Koula and Christian Tuipolutu actually have worse numbers for line break causes than Saab, on a per-game basis). The latest guy to get an audition is Ben Trbojevic, but with Burbo having given up 2 line breaks in as many matches – while having played from the bench and at second-row – his chances of being a defensive upgrade at centre don’t look promising. Instead, it may well be that Manly are looking at a future of having to put up enough points each week to paper over their defensive short-comings, and against the Broncos, we think that should be possible. Brisbane did well enough last week to land the upset, but this isn’t an elite defense by any stretch. Several of Brisbane’s opponents (Penrith, Canterbury, North Queensland) have posted their season-high in tries scored against Brisbane’s friendly D, and they’ve only conceded less than 4 line breaks in a game once. With both defenses being pretty ordinary, we’re expecting a reasonably high-scoring game (weather pending), and with Manly looking a bit more like themselves last week, we’re happy enough to back them in a shoot-out.
  • Rabbitohs by 16 – There’s always a chance of something crazy in Warriors games, and the Rabbitohs‘ league-worst error-rate (14.4 per game) presents plenty of opportunities to opposition teams, but honestly… nobody in their right mind who watched the Warriors play last week would tip them in a game of rugby league against anyone, under any circumstances.
  • Dragons by 1 – We wrote three weeks ago that if the Titans couldn’t get up over the Cowboys that we wouldn’t be tipping them again in a hurry, and we’re standing by that. They were terrible that night, and when you add in their subsequent two games, they’ve now been outscored 92-24 over the past three weeks. They were actually playing pretty well up until that week, at which point Justin Holbrook began making bizarre and unjustified team changes to a unit that looked to be on the verge of putting it together. This week’s casualty falling to Holbrook’s Wheel of Misfortune is Greg Marzhew – yes, the same Greg Marzhew who currently ranks 1st in the NRL for tackle breaks and 2nd on his team for tries, line breaks and metres-per-carry. Apparently, he’s the problem. In contrast, Anthony Griffin has continued to trot out essentially the same Dragons unit since Week 4, and – last week’s rotation as victims of Melbourne’s Revenge Tour notwithstanding – has begun seeing the fruits of his loyalty. The tries aren’t really coming yet, but their LBVOA has crept up from -6.36% before switching Moses Mbye to fullback to 7.89% since the switch, with Mbye ranked 21st in the league for assists (despite starting the first two matches on the bench). The longer he sticks with the current combination, the more they’re likely to produce, and having snuck away with a few wins against bottom-feeders, Griffin’s likely to havemore patience than Holbrook. In a game in which the Titans arguably have more talent and something of a home ground advantage, consider this tip a vote for continuity, and a vote against whatever on earth Justin Holbrook is doing.
  • Panthers by 2 – And so we come to the Game of the Round, if not the Game of the Year. Contrary to popular opinion, we’ve considered the Storm to be the best team in the competition for a while now, with the key difference between these teams being the totally different dimension offered by Melbourne’s offense. With Ryan Papenhuyzen floating around on either side of the field, the Storm play with an effervescent offense that uses the full width of the field regardless of tackle count or field position. They make line breaks at will, and with Papenhuyzen leading the league for tries, there’s literally nobody better in the comp at scoring from long range. But Papenhuyzen isn’t playing this week, is he? Without him, the Storm offense is likely to look completely different. Nick Meaney is obviously not capable of doing Papenhuyzen things in the first place, but even if he were, it wouldn’t be likely in his first week as fullback. Their combinations will be all out of whack, even moreso with reshuffles on both edges (Dean Ieremia comes onto the left wing, while Marion Seve – who has just 1 try and line break from 5 starts in Q Cup for one of the highest scoring teams in the league – lands at right centre). And if Melbourne aren’t able to open up and take shots at Penrith for down their own end, it really plays into the Panthers‘ favour. Both these sides are among the best in the league for controlling the ruck, which is likely to reduce the impact of star hookers, Harry Grant and Api Koroisau. Both these sides have strong packs and elite defenses, leaving them well-equipped for the grind. But once you take away the Storm’s unique attacking strength, the edge likely falls toward the side with the better kicking game, especially in a grinding style of a match, where determining exactly where your opponent takes possession can be crucial. Here, the Panthers have a monumental upper hand through captain Nathan Cleary, who – in addition to his monstrous long kicks and towering bombs – ranks 3rd in the league for forced drop-outs (while having fewer attacking kicks than either of the players above him) with 8. Nobody on the Storm has more than 2. If Paps were playing, we’d be happily backing Melbourne to find a few more tries than Penrith, even without a decent share of territory. But with an offense that’s likely to be searching for a new identity following a cluster of key changes (and facing a Penrith side burning from a surprise loss to local rivals, Parramatta), it’s pretty much the worst possible time for Melbourne to be running into Penrith and the best defense in the league.
  • Sharks by 10 – Yes, the Raiders won the last meeting between these sides all the way back in Round 1, but that was close to the worst game the Sharks have played all season, and they nevertheless actually made more line breaks than Canberra that day anyway, despite earning just a 47% possession share. Since then, they’ve been on very different trajectories, and while the absence of Will Kennedy sees Nicho Hynes shifted to fullback, the Raiders are dealing with major spine issues themselves, with Jack Wighton still out and Adam Elliott starting at hooker (yucky). We don’t expect either side to be at their best, but that should only result in reducing Cronulla’s advantage over Canberra, not eliminating it.
  • Roosters by 6 – If you believe the Eels did anything special in hanging around long enough to upset Penrith, good luck to you. For the record, we don’t rate anything about Parramatta, and watching them somehow get out-produced for line breaks (6 v 2) and run metres (1492 v 1349) despite having 54% of the football and making an extra 30 runs, did very little to change our view. If their strategy was “roll out of bed and hope Penrith get flogged 6-2 in the penalty count”, we suppose it was a roaring success, but don’t be shocked if you see the Eels get slapped with a heavy dose of reality this week by the resurgent Roosters. It had been a long time coming, but the Roosters finally put it all together last week against the Titans, hammering them to the tune of 44-16 (yes, that’s the same Titans team who got within 1 score of beating the Eels earlier this season… twice). The great strength of the Eels is supposedly their forwards, but getting outgained by over 100m while making 30 more carries is honestly embarrassing, and the Roosters quietly rank above the Eels this year in both RMVOA (2.16% vs 1.25%) and RMCVOA (2.34% vs 2.64%). And if the Eels aren’t getting propped up with the lion’s share of field position, all of a sudden they’re likely to find their defense – that is, the league’s 2nd-worst defense – being exposed. While they average a mediocre 3 tries conceded per game even when they win the net yardage battle, that spikes to 4.5 tries conceded when they’re getting outgained. Meanwhile, their tries scored collapses from 5.6 per game to just 3. We accept that there’s always a risk of the Roosters fumbling away their field position in any given game (Sydney average the 8th-most errors per game), but it’s worth noting that they’ve now won the net yardage battle in their last 4 games straight, and done it without ever having more than 51% of the footy. Frankly, we think the Roosters may have the most under-rated pack in the competition at the moment, and if they can just go toe-to-toe with Parra’s engine room, there could very much be a boil-over on the cards.
  • Cowboys by 12
Share:

Related NRL News & Posts:

  • No Related NRL News

Filed Under: Tipping

NRL Tips – Week 9, 2022

May 5, 2022, 6:45 pm By Joel Leave a Comment

2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 39/64  (61%)  (Last Week: 4/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

  • Rabbitohs by 16 – Sure, the Broncos managed to jag an upset over the Rabbitohs when these sides met earlier in the season, but the Bunnies’ offense was arguably more dangerous than Brisbane’s that night (they produced more line breaks and tackle breaks, for example), and has only gotten better since then. It was always going to take a while to get accustomed to life without Adam Reynolds, but after reaching 20 points just once in their first 4 outings, they’ve now hit that mark in their past 4 on the trot (with a 40-point exclamation mark being hung on a short-handed Manly side last week). If there’s a weak point to South Sydney it’s probably in their D, having given up 4 tries in back-to-back games against attacking stragglers Manly (10th) and Wests (14th). We don’t much fancy the Broncos’ chances of making it 3-in-a-row though, especially without their best forward (Payne Haas) and attacking weapon, Kurt Capewell. Souths should have enough points get home in a canter.
  • Raiders by 6 – Get prepared for some extremely dire attacking footy in the first game up on Friday night, as we get a meeting between two sides who’ve both been held to 2 tries or fewer in more than half their matches so far. The Bulldogs come equipped with the worst offense in football, but with the Raiders missing their best player, Jack Wighton (Wighton leads his team in try involvements, line break assists, and sits second in tackle breaks), we’re not expecting them to be much better (if at all). With both sides so offensively limited, we’re inclined to side with the team with the better D, and in this regard there’s no competition (the Raiders rank 6th in defense vs Canterbury’s 12th). It’s no gimme – we doubt either team gets to 20 points, and in a low-scoring match anything can happen – but back at home and in their last game before a murderer’s row of Cronulla, Souths and Parra, we’re backing the Raiders’ D to be up for this one.
  • Panthers by 18 – With the benefit of hindsight, it should have come as no shock that the combination of having the league’s worst defense and an offense featuring one Jakob Arthur would result in a 35-4 humbling last week. Unfortunately, we – like many others – mistakenly believed that Arthur alone wouldn’t be enough  to completely halt the Eels‘ otherwise elite offense. We were wrong. Elite offenses can take many different forms, but none of them have Arthur at five-eighth (despite playing for a Parra side that’s been sat comfortably in the Top 6 since his debut, Arthur has somehow managed a career win rate of just 36%, and guided his side to 16 points or less in more than half his career starts; for those of you wondering, the 5 games where he exceeded that mark came against the Titans twice, the Knights, the Warriors, and South Sydney, but in a game they lost 38-20). Thankfully for Parramatta fans, Brad Arthur did the merciful thing and has promptly reacted by dropping his son. Unfortunately, it won’t be getting any easier against the Panthers. Though Penrith haven’t been running up cricket scores every week like their primary competition, Melbourne, what the Panthers have been doing is suffocating opposition teams with the same elite defense that carried them to last year’s premiership. Through eight weeks, the Panthers have conceded 2 or fewer tries in 6 of them, including their past 5 straight. This is in stark contrast to Parramatta giving up 4 or more tries in 6 of their matches. You may be tempted to argue that the Eels’ offense is better than most of the sides Penrith have faced thus far (a point that’s true enough), but may we remind you that this Penrith defense has now held the Eels to 2 tries or fewer in their past 4 consecutive meetings, and that Parra haven’t scored more than 20 against Penrith since 2015. With Parra leaking 20+ with striking regularity these days, that’s bad news for Eels fans, Jakob Arthur or not.
  • Sea Eagles by 6 – The story of the Sea Eagles/Tigers game is all about who is and isn’t playing. On Manly’s side, the roster changes have them suddenly looking a lot more dangerous, with Tom Trbojevic and the Big O, Haumole Olakau’atu significant ins. Even better, the return of Turbo allows them to reshuffle Reuben Garrick back onto the wing to replace the injured Jason Saab, effectively upgrading two positions at once (Saab has leaked the 12th-most tries in the league, and the 2nd-most on his team, only behind Morgan Harper, who has since been fired into the sun). Meanwhile at Concord, the Tigers find themselves coming into this match carrying the 3rd-worst offense in the NRL, and now have to play without their two team leaders in tackle breaks, David Nofoaluma and Luciano Leilua. We’re still backing the Tigers’ elite D to keep the scoreline competitive, but given the extraordinary difference in roster fortune between the sides this week, we also wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Manly dishing out a healthy blow-out.
  • Roosters by 4 – It speaks volumes to how badly the Roosters are traveling that we’re only tipping them by a single score against a team running equal-last (the Titans) and missing their best player (David Fifita). To be fair to the Titans, there’s an element of bad luck to the position they currently find themselves in – through their first 6 games, 3 of their 4 losses came by 1 score or less, and in the other, they actually scored an equal number of tries. Then, they suffered the even worse misfortune of having their coach decide to throw the baby out with the bathwater and start shuffling their best player all over the field (moves that have resulted in them losing their last two matches by 13+). So, the Titans probably aren’t as bad as Justin Holbrook has made them look, and the Roosters, meanwhile, don’t look themselves. They’ve dropped out of the league’s Top 8 offenses for the first time we can remember, and are coming into this match off of back-to-back losses against perennial stragglers St George and Canterbury. We fancy Sydney are probably better than the Gold Coast, but to be honest, we don’t have a lot of conviction about it, and were actually a bit tempted by the $3.60 price going on the Titans. If Fifita were playing (and playing second-row, just to be clear, Justin), we very well may have pulled the trigger.
  • Cowboys by 16
  • Storm by 20+
  • Sharks by 20+
Share:

Related NRL News & Posts:

  • No Related NRL News

Filed Under: Tipping

NRL Tips – Week 8, 2022

April 28, 2022, 1:38 pm By Joel Leave a Comment

2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 35/56  (63%)  (Last Week: 5/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

  • Sharks by 20+
  • Panthers by 18
  • Rabbitohs by 6 – After watching the Sea Eagles get eviscerated before half-time last week against Cronulla, we wouldn’t have anticipated projecting this game to be competitive. However, we’re optimistic that they may have begun playing themselves into a bit of form via their garbage-time comeback in conditions that could be replicated here. Last Thursday night, the Eagles were gifted a 56% second half possession share by a Cronulla side who had clearly put the cue in the rack (the Sharks made 6 errors and conceded a further 4 penalties after half-time); and having been given enough invitations, their offense suddenly sprang to life. After having failed to exceed 3 line breaks in all but one game this season, the Eagles took advantage of the repeated short fields to the tune of 4 tries and 5 line breaks in just 40 minutes. Sure, the Sharks would have felt like they already had the match won, but it’s interesting because if there’s any other team likely to present Manly with a similar avalanche of opportunity, it’s probably the Rabbitohs. In Souths, Manly will be facing the team with the worst error-rate in the league (the Bunnies average 14.4 errors per game – over 2 more errors per match than the 2nd-worst side). Souths’ dismal discipline saw them somehow manage a loss against the Tigers last week (they made 12 errors and conceded a further 9 total penalties – the same pace as Cronulla’s second half drop-off – resulting in them earning just 44% of the footy), and few would argue with a straight face that Manly aren’t at least the equals of Wests. In fact, the only things keeping us from tipping the Eagles here are the loss of star edge forward Haumole Olakau’atu (The Big O sits 5th in the league for tackle breaks, and without both him and Tom Trbojevic, Manly look extremely light for attacking threats on paper) and the extremely low chance of Manly replicating the Tigers’ good discipline from last weekend (yes, Souths are sloppy, but Manly are no angels either, making the 6th-most errors and conceding the 2nd-most penalties per game). Oh, and we suppose there’s also a non-zero chance that the Sharks were up by so much that they simply didn’t care at all, and Manly’s entire second-half effort was a false dawn. We’ll soon find out.
  • Raiders by 6 – The Warriors vs Raiders clash this weekend may well make history, as it must surely be the first time ever that two sides are facing off after being outgained by a combined 2 kilometres the previous weekend. Yes, this pair had the misfortune of running into the two best packs in the NRL last weekend, but it’s also indicative of how both these sides are traveling. Over at Canberra, the problem stems from a complete absence of go-forward, with the Green Machine ranking dead last in RMVOA (-9.46%). Despite inexplicably maintaining a reputation for a rock solid engine room, the Raiders actually have no forwards averaging 10 metres-per-carry – a problem that perhaps stems from the complete inability of their outside backs to effectively get their sets started (none of the Raiders regular outside backs even exceed 8 yards-per-tote), leaving their middles to charge into brick walls. Over at the Warriors, meanwhile, theirs is a problem of run-stopping. New Zealand rank dead last for RMCVOA (7.11%), and have been gashed for over 1400m in all but 2 matches so far. The Warriors’ ineffectiveness at limiting opposition yardage reflects an unusually passive defensive approach, with the Warriors defensive line typically keeping significantly more width than most NRL sides. This limits their ability to get multiple defenders in at the point of impact, and the lack of defensive pressure has also had the unintended consequence of failing to draw errors (the Warriors have seen their opponents make 7 or fewer errors in their past 3 games straight). Putting these sides head-to-head, we’re inclined to favour Canberra because while the Warriors’ passive D should help the Raiders’ yardage sets, it’s hard to see how the Raiders’ lack of go-forward will help the Warriors (that is, the Raiders being slow and ineffective isn’t likely to suddenly see the Warriors become more aggressive, in the way that the Warriors being passive will allow extra metres for the Raiders, regardless of how slowly Canberra may take them). In a match between two of the least effective offenses in the competition (the Warriors rank 2nd-last; the Raiders 4th-last), field position is likely to be crucial for generating points, and for this reason we’re leaning towards Canberra.
  • Roosters by 16
  • Eels by 12 – Though the shifting of Dylan Brown to centre on the surface looks like the most egregious case of nepotism  we can remember (unless Brad Arthur sees something in son Jakob’s zero assists, zero line breaks, and 4 post-contact metres that the rest of us are missing), it’s hard to be too critical of a team coming off a thumping 39-2 victory. Yes, the team would almost certainly be better without Jakob in it, but they were still a long way better than Newcastle, and should be a long way better than the Cowboys, too. For their part, the Cows were presented with an absolute gift by Justin Holbrook last weekend, who inexplicably shifted his best player (David Fifita) out to centre, only to learn that he’s completely incapable of defending there, as he got an absolute bath from Scott Drinkwater. It was a 5-star performance by Drinky, but it was also opportunistic – the Cows aren’t likely to be presented with another such opportunity for a while, and outside that one game, the Cows have consistently been among the least effective offenses in the competition for generating line breaks (their LBVOA is -17.90%). Their D has generally been solid (which is more than can be said for Parramatta), but it’s also worth noting that the Cows have yet to face an above-average Offense, with the closest they’ve seen (the Roosters, with an Offense VOA of -1.82%) running in 6 tries from 8 line breaks. This puts the Eels offense in a completely different class to anybody North Queensland have come across, and even allowing for Parramatta’s defensive issues, it’s hard to see the Cows competing given the potential for Parra to drop 30+ here.
  • Storm by 20+
  • Dragons by 4 – We told you last week that the Dragons were closer to the standard of the Roosters than most realised (a comment that’s somehow both a compliment to St George-Illawarra and a slight on the Roosters), so we weren’t at all shocked to see them pull off the ANZAC Day upset. In fact, we like them to go back-to-back here against a Tigers side playing to the absolute best of their ability – a level that remains, we should add, not terribly high. While we can understand the Tigers’ fan base being delirious with back-to-back wins, the way the mainstream media is gushing over their “offense” is bordering on absurd. We wrote last week how the Tigers’ 4 line breaks was actually the least anyone had put on Parra this season (a low-point that was since surpassed by Newcastle, by the way); the Tigers then backed that up with the 2nd-worst attacking performance put past the Rabbitohs – an impressively limp effort, considering they did it with 56% of the football (the ability to be that ineffective even when literally everything is going your way really is something). Should the Tigers keep that pace and match the least of the Dragons’ 2022 opponents here, that would put the Tigers on track for about 3 line breaks, and probably 2 tries. Given the impressively high standard to which the Tigers defense is playing, that could yet be enough to win here, but it’s a tough ask given the sheer amount of change they’re dealing with in their edge combinations (this week sees Oliver Gildart recalled to join second-rower Luke Garner in the centres), and we quite fancy the way St George-Illawarra’s offense is looking at the moment, anyway.
Share:

Related NRL News & Posts:

  • No Related NRL News

Filed Under: Tipping

NRL Tips – Week 7, 2022

April 21, 2022, 4:55 pm By Joel 1 Comment

2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 30/48  (63%)  (Last Week: 5/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)
  • Sharks by 20+ – If and when you read anything trying to convince you that the Sea Eagles are playing good footy, please feel confident dismissing it as either the work of a troll, or the incoherent babbling of somebody who hasn’t actually watched them play. To be frank, Manly were bad before Turbo got hurt, they’ve been bog average since, and whatever maroon-and-white mirage may have been created from their recent string of fluky and underwhelming wins is about to be shattered by a rapidly-growing Sharks-coloured juggernaut. Let’s  take a moment to reflect on Manly’s wins: a 1-point victory over the team currently running last; posting an impressive-seeming scoreline against the team running 12th, despite posting just 2 line breaks; inflating the score late against an injury-ravaged Newcastle side mired in a 4-game losing streak; and being matched for tries by a Gold Coast team who only turned in about 20 minutes of first grade-quality football. And they’re somehow supposed to be a threat to Cronulla? Here’s a fun fact: the Sharks have posted 6+ line breaks in their last 5 consecutive games. How many times this year have the Eagles hit that number? Zero.
  • Broncos by 8 – Given the disruption the Bulldogs have had to deal with in the lead-up to this game (losing a handful of regulars to COVID), in addition to the fact that they weren’t playing well even when these guys were available, it seems like a bit of a no-brainer to tip the Broncos here. That being said, it’s not as if Brisbane aren’t dealing with a few issues of their own. In addition to losing Ryan James and Jake Turpin, Kevin Walters has made the curious decision to tackle the long-term absence of Tesi Niu by handing a surprise fullback jersey to Te Maire Martin. In case you’ve forgotten who Martin is, he’s a former Kiwi Test five-eighth, who’s played 10 career games at the back, winning just 3. He’s a capable enough footballer, but throwing him out there to catch Matt Burton’s towering bombs without having even played a game of fullback in Queensland Cup is… an inspired choice. We still think Brisbane should be good enough to win, but don’t be surprised to see Canterbury relentlessly target Martin in the hope of being presented a few more attacking chances than they’d otherwise deserve.
  • Titans by 2 – You’d think at some point we’d get tired of tipping the Titans, and if they don’t get up here, we very well might. After watching the Titans phone it in for almost an hour before effortlessly waltzing through Manly’s defensive line (they ultimately finished with more line breaks and equal tries, losing the match on goals alone), you couldn’t help but be frustrated by the Titans’ delay getting started. After back-to-back fast finishes, we suppose you could argue that they’re just super fit and built to come over the top of opponents, if it weren’t for the fact that three weeks ago they did the exact opposite, blowing the Raiders off the park for 40 minutes, before doing nothing in the second stanza. Despite their patchy form though, we still find ourselves tipping them here because the numbers they’re able to pop from their brief periods of good form are still better than what the Cowboys post in 80 minutes. In last week’s losing effort, the Titans still notched up a LBVOA of 30.07% – better than North Queensland have managed in any game this season. It’s also worth noting that the Cowboys present as a uniquely nice match-up for the Titans’ offense, with the Gold Coast’s tackle break-heavy offense (they rank 4th in TBVOA) going head-to-head with the league’s worst defense for missed tackles. Particularly appealing is the Cowboys’ right edge, where Peta Hiku (15th-most missed tackles in the league) and Jeremiah Nanai (the most in the league, period) are located. Brian Kelly could be in for a day, and we wouldn’t be shocked to see David Fifita spend some time on that edge to have a crack at Nanai. The pieces are all there for the Titans – the question is just how long they can put it together for.
  • Rabbitohs by 10 – We’re not tempted to tip the Tigers here (and neither should you be), but we just wanted to take a moment to wrap their defense.  No matter how many pages of newsprint were wasted on the supposedly great performance of their halves, there was absolutely nothing impressive about their offense last week – their 4 line breaks against Parra were actually the fewest the Eels have conceded all season (and the Tigers needed 53% of the footy to even get those) – but their defense has actually been pretty decent all season. If we forgive a pair of floggings by Melbourne and Cronulla (and to be fair, a lot of teams are going to get toweled up by those two this season), they’ve managed to post a LBCVOA and TBCVOA of -48.34% and -22.01% respectively in their other four games. These incredibly good numbers in matches where they weren’t immediately destined to get smoked suggests that their D may actually be borderline-elite, up until the point that they give up (which mightn’t necessarily take long, since they’ve been held to 1 try or fewer in half their games, making just about any deficit feel insurmountable). This makes picking margins for Tigers games suddenly really tricky – their D looks good enough to contain the Rabbitohs to about 3 tries if they want to; but once the Rabbits get to 3 tries, the Tigers have bugger all chance of reeling them in, and it could get ugly. We’re giving them the benefit of the doubt here that on the back of their first win, they’ll compete for longer than most would be expecting.
  • Eels by 6 – We continue to be baffled by the mainstream media talking up the Eels as a supposed Top 4-calibre side. Let’s take a peek at their current Offense and Defense VOAs: with the ball, they have a VOA of 37.07% (3rd in the NRL); without it, they’re at 23.87% (3rd worst). These aren’t the numbers of a heavyweight contender – they’re essentially the numbers of the 2021 Titans (a team who nobody considered a serious premiership threat). Thankfully, the Knights’ sputtering offense isn’t likely to post more points than what Parra are capable of running down, but when the draw stiffens up in a couple of weeks, look out.
  • Panthers by 16
  • Roosters by 2 – If you’re wondering why we have this game projected so close, the answer lies in the Dragons posting their 3rd consecutive 6 line break performance last weekend against Newcastle (a stretch that also included facing South Sydney, so they haven’t all been gimmes). Unfortunately for the Dragons, their defense has been so consistently ordinary that they haven’t been winning many games, and if the losses are allowed to pile up, it’s probably only a matter of time before they quit on the season. But, last week’s win could give them a little bit of momentum, and their numbers so far haven’t actually been drastically worse than those of the Roosters. The Dragons actually rank 7th on Offense (vs the Roosters’ 8th), while that flips to 13th vs 10th on Defense. Reputations aside, this makes the Dragons’ current $4.50 price look incredibly tempting.
  • Storm by 20+
Share:

Related NRL News & Posts:

  • No Related NRL News

Filed Under: Tipping

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • …
  • 277
  • Next Page »
As featured on NewsNow: NRL news
NRL News 24/7

Latest Features

TOR in 2022

NRL Tips – 2019 Grand Final

TOR in 2019

Rabbitohs Need To Put Difficult Pre-Season Behind Them

End of an Era: No sunset ride for Thurston

The Month In Review: July ’18

The Month In Review: June ’18

The Month In Review: May ’18

Numbers Do Lie: Why Woods isn’t better than Campbell-Gillard (Or, why Michael Chammas should stick to reporting, and leave statistics to people who actually understand them)

The Month In Review: April ’18

More Features

Latest NRL Previews

NRL Tips – Week 4, 2022

NRL Tips – Week 3, 2022

NRL Tips – Week 2, 2022

NRL Tips – Week 1, 2022

NRL Tips – Grand Final 2021

More Tips & Previews

Email Updates

Sign up for The Obstruction Rule email updates and receive FREE VOA-based NRL line-betting tips for each round for the rest of 2018!




Top 5 NRL Offense VOA

Melbourne43.86%
Cronulla35.32%
Penrith32.74%
South Sydney23.63%
Parramatta14.27%

Top 5 NRL Defense VOA

Penrith-53.00%
North Queensland-32.49%
Melbourne-24.14%
Canberra-23.00%
Cronulla-19.95%

Full sortable NRL VOA ratings

LIVE NRL SCORES

Friends of TOR

NRL Universe

Contact Us

Email Facebook Twitter Instagram

Search

This is an unofficial and independent source of NRL news and information not affiliated with any team(s) or the National Rugby League (NRL).

Copyright © 2022 · Metro Pro On Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in

The Obstruction Rule - The latest NRL news, rumours, previews and analysis