The Obstruction Rule

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 111/152 (73%) (Last week: 5/8)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Knights
• Raiders
• Rabbitohs
• Sharks
• Panthers
• Storm
• Tigers
• Titans

Notes

• After a brief foray into competitive matches, the NRL appears set to return to another relatively predictable week of games. We actually wouldn’t have minded this match-up for the Broncos, given the huge spike in attacking output from their right-edge since the return of Kotoni Staggs, and an opportunity to line up against the porous Knights left-edge. Last weekend, Staggs and right second-rower Jordan Riki combined for 4 line breaks, 3 tries and 1 try assist. Newcastle, meanwhile, gave up all 4 tries down their left (where Enari Tuala, conceder of the league’s 3rd-most tries and 2nd-most line breaks resides). Accordingly, this had the potential to be a plus match-up for Brisbane, and a sneaky shot for a high-paying upset. Unfortunately, Brisbane have lost Staggs for this game, and with him likely goes most of Brisbane’s points. Staggs will be replaced here by Jesse Arthurs, and the comparison of their attacking contributions is… not good. While Staggs has produced 4 line breaks and 20 tackle busts from his 4 starts, Arthurs has so far produced just 3 and 11 respectively, from 10 outings. This will almost certainly result in a drop-off in attacking output for Brisbane, and with Mitch Pearce on his way back into a Newcastle side that just put 34 on Canberra, the Broncos will likely need all the points they can get. We still expect Brisbane to be more competitive than most, but the loss of Staggs is enough to stop us from recommending this as a potential boilover.
• If there was a real tragedy for the Raiders last week, it’s the fact that they actually produced enough points to win against Newcastle, if they had only defended to the standard they’ve set over the past month. The Raiders 10.65% LBCVOA was the worst defense Canberra have produced since getting pumped 44-6 by the Titans in Round 16, and with Canberra ultimately only going down by 12 points against Newie, they really didn’t need to be a lot better to get home. That loss cost the Raiders a spot in the Top 8, and allowed the Knights to climb into a 5-way tie for 7th. It’s particularly disappointing because defense is the only way Canberra have been keeping themselves competitive. Through their past three weeks, the Raiders’ attack has improved to the point where it’s consistent, but not consistently good. Rather, they’ve produced a LBVOA between -13.69% and -27.18% each week – numbers that are good enough to create a few opportunities against bad defenses, but bad enough that they still require either their defense to be on point or a monster possession share to actually win (or both). Against the Dragons, the Raiders will get to face another below-average defense, and even better, an opponent who’s failed to earn more than 45% of the footy for the past 3 weeks. Additionally, the Saints will be without halfback Ben Hunt, without whom they produced their least effective 4-game stretch of the season earlier in the year, where they had a LBVOA of -39.05%, and were fortunate to average 3.25 tries per game. This all shapes as an extremely winnable game for Canberra, and with games against Melbourne, Manly and Sydney all still to come, they simply can not afford to wet the bed again defensively if they’re to be any shot of scraping into the finals.
• Following a visit to Mackay, the Eels are this week returning to the Gold Coast for the next leg of their Top 4 Farewell Tour. Though Eels fans will point to the absence of Mitch Moses as the reason behind their last two clangers (they’ve scored 2 tries combined over their past 2 games), the reality is that they likely wouldn’t have fared much better with him, anyway. We mentioned it earlier in the year, but it warrants repeating: the Eels have been spectacularly bad at producing against elite defenses, and only find themselves 6th in overall scoring courtesy of running up “empty” stats against bad teams in noncompetitive games. On the season, the Eels average 4.5 tries and 5.2 line breaks per game. Not bad, right? But let’s narrow that down to their 6 games against sides with above average defenses. Now, that drops to 2.5 tries per game, and worse, their line breaks per game drop to just 2.2 (showing that their paltry try total is actually on the high side for their production, and could be expected to drop). The Rabbitohs, by the way, rank 3rd in the NRL for defense, and… let’s just say… are not likely to have any issues running down 2.5 tries. In fact, Souths have exceeded 2.5 tries in all but 2 games this season, and have actually exceeded double that for their past 6 straight. In other feats of attacking brilliance, the Rabbits have now hit double-digit line breaks in 6 of their past 8 games (only Melbourne have hit double-digits 6 times all season), and over the past fortnight, they’ve outgained their opponents by a combined total of over 1800m. Frankly, the Rabbitohs are suddenly giving the Storm a real nudge as the best offense in football, and may be better than Penrith overall (we’ll find out soon enough when they meet the Panthers in Round 23). In the meantime, treat yourself to another enjoyable Friday night of watching the Eels getting royally pumped.
• Having called the Warriors upset win over the Tigers a fortnight early before bitching out after half the side went home, you can imagine our immense frustration and self-loathing after New Zealand finally dug out a win (regular readers may recall us tipping Warriors upsets in their 1-point losses to the Cowboys and Dragons, as well as their 4-point loss to the Knights). After cooling off though, it’s hard to be too disappointed with the process – the Tigers actually outperformed the Warriors in line breaks (6 v 4), tackle breaks (37 v 27), run metres (1502 v 1454), offloads (16 v 6), post-contact metres (546 v 476)… the list goes on and on. The inability of the Tigers to actually win a game when everything is going their way shouldn’t distract from the reality: the Warriors, while brave, were a long way below their best. There is room for hope though: this week they get half their starting pack back (Addin Fonua-Blake, Matt Lodge and Josh Curran are all included), as well as half Chanel Harris-Tevita. All of a sudden, this is a team that looks reasonably competitive on paper, and if they bring Adam Pompey off the reserve list into centre (which would free up Peta Hiku to displace Sean O’Sullivan in the halves), they’re suddenly a huge chance. Because, let’s be real – the Sharks aren’t traveling that well. Last week they extended their record to 3-9 without Shaun Johnson at halfback, and he’s not due back for a few weeks yet. Their output was better than expected against Manly, but to put it in perspective, the Tigers produced the same number of tries against Manly the week prior, and actually made more line breaks, tackle breaks and run metres (HOT TIP: you don’t generally want to perform worse than Wests in any form of head-to-head comparison). With question marks over their offense, it’s a terrible time for their D to be struggling, but the Sharks have now produced a woeful LBCVOA of over 53.59% in both their past two matches (worst in the league). We can’t quite bring ourselves to pull the trigger, but this has the potential to be that close, if you’re looking for an upset – this is the game.
• If you had the misfortune of sitting through the Panthers‘ stinker against Melbourne last weekend, you could be forgiven for jumping onto the Roosters here. We’ve been telling you for months that reports of the Roosters’ death have been greatly exaggerated, and their thumping 28-0 victory over Parra should have come as a surprise to no-one. However, that doesn’t immediately place the Roosters in the Panthers’ tier. Though we were thoroughly disappointed by the Panthers’ wafer-thin defense against the Storm (they leaked 6 tries; the 1st time they’ve given up more than 4 in a game all season), that outing needs to be kept in perspective. For a start it was against Melbourne, who are clearly the best team in the league. As clunky and unimpressive as Penrith’s offense was, for example, their 3 line breaks created was actually the 2nd-most the Storm have conceded in a game since Round 10 (and, for what it’s worth, the Roosters managed just 1). Second, the Panthers were missing a stack of troops, several of whom will be back here. Isaah Yeo and Api Koroisau will make the Panthers’ offense instantly better, as will the addition of Tevita Pangai Jr (who Roosters fans will recall ripping through their side single-handedly in the Broncos’ upset win over them in Round 11), while Nathan Cleary has been included on the extended bench. Also, we’ll remind you that Penrith turned in two clunkers against the Tigers and Sharks while under-staffed due to Origin – only to welcome their troops back for a thumping 38-12 flogging of the Roosters in Round 15. In short, the Panthers have already demonstrated that they can bounce straight back to form, and bounce back in style. The only way we’d be tempted to jump on the Roosters would be if Cleary ultimately doesn’t play. Without Cleary and centre Stephen Crichton (suspended) the Panthers will have lost two players who are arguably the best in the league defensively at their respective positions (they’ve combined for 7 tries and 9 line breaks conceded from a whopping 31 combined starts), from the same edge. With defensive liability Brent Naden already in the side, losing Cleary – which in turn forces second-rower Kurt Capewell into centre – leaves some serious question marks over Penrith’s edges. We’d probably still take Penrith, but it would certainly make it a lot more competitive, and would make the current $3.15 price on the Roosters look like a value play.
• Over the course of the past fortnight, the Sea Eagles have shown worrying signs for their defense, despite romping in for relatively comfortable victories. Their LBCVOA over that period is 41.72%, which would place them last in the NRL if extrapolated for the season, and is the worst 2-week period they’ve had all season – including their dismal opening month in which they conceded 39 points-per-game. The good news is that as long as Tom Trbojevic is playing it doesn’t seem to matter (they’ve averaged 51.5 points per game in his past 4 outings); the bad news is that if they produce defensive numbers like that against the Storm, they could very well leak 60. Manly can’t expect to keep winning by dropping enormous scores on everybody, because when they run into the top defenses in the playoffs, those big scores will dry up. We’ve already seen Penrith hold the Turbo-led Eagles to 16, and the distinctly non-elite Knights defense kept them to 10 by starving them of possession. The Storm present just the 2nd elite defense Manly have run into with Turbo in the side, and should they shut Manly down, Melbourne have the attacking brilliance to run up a cricket score. The reason we’d fallen in love with Manly through their recent resurgence was never because of their Turbo-inspired offense, but rather their incredible defensive resurgence. With that D now showing signs of fraying around the edges, this week will provide a good indication of how well they’re actually going heading into the finals.
• As far as “winnable games” go for the Bulldogs, the Tigers are surely the closest thing to fitting that description, particularly after watching them butcher a flood of opportunities against New Zealand. That being said, we’ve already highlighted that the Tigers were nowhere near as bad as they looked, while the Bulldogs remain a long way below NRL-standard. The Dogs’ 6 points scored against the Titans (who have the worst D in the league – yes, even worse than the Tigers) was the tied-least that any team has mustered this year, and made them just the 4th team since Round 4 to fail to score 20 against the Gold Coast. If there’s an upshot for Canterbury it’s that they’ve now hit 4 line breaks for the past 3 games straight (though the Tigers have made 5+ over the same stretch), which is a fair improvement from the 3 combined line breaks they made in their previous 3. Unfortunately, they keep getting badly smoked for field position (they’ve been outgained by 298m+ in their past 6 straight), which reduces the likelihood of those line breaks producing tries (3 of their 4 last week came around halfway), and leaves their below-average defense consistently exposed. Even with Daine Laurie out for the Tigers, we still can’t see the Bulldogs winning a game until they find a way to win between the 20s. They simply don’t have the skill-set to win games otherwise.
• Putting aside the Bunker’s bizarre decision to inject themselves into the game and overturn a fair try to Kyle Feldt, the fact of the matter is that the Cowboys were totally outplayed by Brisbane, and deserved to lose regardless. Had Feldt’s try been given, they very likely win from there, but does anyone really think they would have deserved it? Their left edge was completely dismantled by the Broncos, and Todd Payten got a bit too cute rolling out the Jake Granville fullback experiment for another week (particularly with Ben Hampton in the squad and Daejarn Asi also available). They get Valentine Holmes back this week (solving the fullback issue), but things aren’t going to get any easier for their defense. Though the Titans generally prefer to attack to their left, the Cowboys’ right edge is typically even worse – Feldt has conceded the most line breaks of any player in the NRL this year, and he and Lemuelu (assuming Lemuelu remains on the right this week)have combined to allow 44 breaks from their combined 28 starts. Though the Titans’ own D is every bit as bad as the Cows’, the difference between the two attacking units is significant. The Titans regularly score 30+, while the Cows seem eternally destined to settle at about 18. Given the likelihood of this game devolving into a shoot-out, we’d much rather be on the superior Titans O.

Related NRL News & Posts:

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2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 106/144 (74%) (Last week: 7/8)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Roosters
• Tigers
• Cowboys
• Rabbitohs
• Raiders
• Storm
• Titans
• Sea Eagles

Notes

• Let’s take you back to Round 9, Friday night. You probably remember it – it’s the night that saw James Tedesco separated from his head and Drew Hutchison became the victim of an NRL-sanctioned murder; a series of events that kicked off the now-infamous “crackdown”. But do you remember this: an especially clumsy-handed effort from the Roosters presented the Eels with an absurd 65-35 possession advantage, a difference that saw the Eels enjoy 63 tackles in the opposition 20 vs the Roosters’ 8. And what did they do with it? Sweet FA. The Roosters actually earned more total line breaks than Parramatta, and finished the better team in LBVOA (-19.88% v -62.85%), RMVOA (-0.92% v -8.60%) and TBVOA (25.24% v -11.94%). Had the Roosters just produced at their season-average for discipline, they would have not only won, but would have likely run up the score. So, we can only assume that Sydney’s lack of popularity with the punters is due to their relentlessly-trumpeted “injury crisis”, with Matt Ikuvalu and Billy Smith this week heading to the casualty ward. But let’s look back at the roster the Roosters had that night. The only player unavailable now who was actually available then was Ikuvalu. But on the other hand, the Roosters are now bolstered by the inclusions of hooker Sam Verrills, second-rower Sitili Tupouniua, and bench options Lachlam Lam and Egan Butcher. On balance, this Roosters team is surely better than the one that went toe-to-toe with Parramatta the first time (the inclusion of Lam in particular is wise, as a precaution in case Parra take a hit out on Hutchison again). In contrast, this Eels side looks significantly worse. Gone is half Mitch Moses and key utility man Marata Niukore, with the only major addition coming in the form of Nathan Brown (who hasn’t looked his best at all so far this season, anyway). With Moses unavailable, the Eels squandered 41 tackles in the Raiders red zone last week, returning just 2 tries from all that possession. If they couldn’t create line breaks against this Roosters side with Moses, and they couldn’t convert field position into points against the Raiders (whose defense is typically worse than that of Sydney), we just can’t see how any rational observer could consider the Eels favourites, let alone relatively short-priced ones at that. The Roosters look like irresistibly  good value, and we’d be loading up before the bookies change their minds.
• We mentioned in last week’s preview that we were gearing up to pick the Warriors this week, and watching the Tigers give up 10+ line breaks for the 3rd time in 4 weeks had us extremely excited. Sadly, on the weekend they were further hammered by injury and suspension, and that’s now been compounded by blokes packing up their things and returning home before the bubble closes. With blokes like Ben Murdoch-Masila and Kane Evans coming in we could have tolerated the losses in the forwards, but it’s extremely hard to get excited about a halves combo of Peta Hiku and Sean O’Sullivan in what’s shaping up as a bit of a shoot-out. As shitty as the Tigers’ D is, their O is effective enough. They’ve now scored 22+ in their past 3 straight, something the Warriors have managed just once in 7 starts with O’Sullivan in the team. As a general rule, we’ll never completely rule out the Warriors while ever Reece Walsh is named in the side, but it’ll be a tough ask to carry this shell of a roster the rest of the way.
• Though we’re inclined to agree with the view that the Broncos have been looking a bit better of late, we still don’t think it’s right for them to ever start a game as favourites against a non-Canterbury opponent. Last weekend was the first time since Round 9 that the Broncos have conceded less than 6 line breaks in a game, and even that ought to come with an asterisk (the Panthers have missed the mark 3 times in 5 Tyrone May starts against pretty ordinary opposition). Prior to that, the Broncs were hemorrhaging monster scores with even greater regularity than the Cowboys, whose own defense is similarly dreadful. The difference then is likely to come on offense, and with Brisbane missing a host of key middles, we think they may really struggle here. With Thomas Flegler and hooker Corey Paix joining John Asiata, Patrick Corrigan and Ben Te’o on the sidelines, Brisbane are missing an entire forward pack’s worth of talent, and running into one of the nastiest packs in the game (the Cowboys rank 3rd in the league for RMVOA). This is not without consequence for Brisbane: in the 6 starts in which the Broncos have been able to outgain their opponents, they’ve averaged a very respectable 4.5 tries per game. In the 12 games they haven’t, though, they’ve never scored more than 4, and average just 2 per game. Remembering that this Cowboys side just put 3 tries and 4 line breaks past the Storm (who are, if you’re not aware, significantly better than Brisbane at everything), any shortage of points for Brisbane would be a real problem. We expect this to be competitive, but feel the Cows bring a little more attacking upside.
• Though it’s never a good thing to score just 10 points against the Gold Coast (indeed, the Dragons were just the 2nd team since Round 6 to put less than 20 on them), we should point out that St George-Illawarra actually weren’t as miserable offensively as it looks – they still managed to put up 8 line breaks and 37 tackle busts on just a 45% possession share. The real problem for the Dragons is on D – despite look decent enough when they’re up against also-rans, they’ve been totally lit up every time they’ve faced a high-end attacking unit. In 5 starts against sides with above-average Offense VOA, the Dragons have leaked at least 5 line breaks in every start, at an average of over 8 per game. That just isn’t going to cut it, especially with 4 of their last 6 games coming against elite offenses. One such attacking unit is the Rabbitohs, who come into this game having scored 30+ in their past 5 straight, including dropping 60 on New Zealand in their last start. Add in a host of barbecue-related suspensions, and the Saints’ inevitable tumble out of the Top 8 should be just about complete.
• The Knights’ clash with the Raiders may be the hardest of the round to predict. There are a slew of big names coming in for both sides (Bradman Best, David Klemmer and Mitch Pearce for Newcastle; Bailey Simonsson, Elliott Whitehead and Jack Wighton for Canberra), which places a huge question mark over the relevance of each side’s recent form-lines. This is important, because on form, the Knights are on a hiding to nothing. Through their past 6 matches, the Knights have scored more than 10 points just once (a thumping 38-0 victory over North Queensland), which is a major issue for a side carrying a defense that leaks like a colander. Theirs isn’t a side built to tackle their way to victory – they prefer to ride home on the back of high-flying offense (of their 7 wins this season, they’ve scored 20+ in 5 of them). Their current price seems to reflect their recent attacking struggles, but the inclusion of Pearce and Best shouldn’t be sneezed at (they’re yet to have Pearce, Best and Kalyn Ponga all on the field at the same time; the only occasion they had Pearce and Ponga together was in the aforementioned 38-point thumping of the Cowboys). So let’s talk this through: let’s say the Knights’ offense clicks straight back into gear. Would that make them an automatic win? Not if the Raiders defend like they did last weekend. We were quick to knock the Raiders’ clunky, unconvincing wins over Manly and Cronulla; wins that depended heavily on monster possession shares. That kind of possession advantage failed to materialise last weekend against Parra, yet the Raiders’ D stood up, limiting the Eels to just 2 tries and 2 line breaks from a lop-sided 56% of the footy. Sure, the Eels were without Mitch Moses, but it was hard to come away as anything other than impressed with Canberra’s defensive resilience. Importantly, this wasn’t out-of-the-blue either – while the Raiders continue to work their offense into some kind of form, they’re defending their way back up the ladder. They’ve now conceded 3 tries or less in their past 3 straight, leaking 10 line breaks combined since giving up 12 to the Gold Coast. They’ll need every bit of that stout defense if the Knights click straight into gear, but on current form we think they’re good enough to force this into a low-scoring grind.
• It looked as if the Storm and Panthers both had an eye on this week’s Grand Final Preview, as the competition’s standard-setters both turned in underwhelming victories against low-level competition. Neither side had much in the way of defensive intensity, with Melbourne conceding their most line breaks since Round 10 (4), and Penrith setting a season-high for missed tackles (a shockingly poor 63). Apparently the bookmakers have been a lot more forgiving of Melbourne’s effort, installing the Panthers as despised outsiders at $5.50. The story seems to go that Melbourne are just too strong, and Penrith aren’t likely to have any points them without Origin stars Nathan Cleary and Api Koroisau in the spine. Though we agree that the Storm deserve a degree of favouritism, that should have nothing to do with the Panthers’ spine. Yes, they’ve struggled somewhat in Cleary’s absence so far (though we use the term “struggle” loosely – they’ve won 4 from 6 without him), but the main problem has been Ivan Cleary’s persistence with using the ill-suited Tyrone May as Cleary’s replacement. Using May as halfback is not so much like forcing a square block through a round hole, as it is taking a steaming dump on the hole and smooshing it around with a screwdriver. Filling Nathan’s role has seen May camped out on the right edge despite clear issues passing left-to-right, leaving Penrith with only half a field to realistically attack from. He also happens to have conceded the 3rd most line breaks in the squad, despite having only started 5 games. But good news: Ivan has been saved from himself, with May among the Panthers’ casualties from last round. So now, the Panthers will be forced to turn to a spine comprised of Dylan Edwards, Matt Burton, Jarome Luai and Mitch Kenny for their clash with the Storm. If that group sounds vaguely familiar, it’s with good reason – it’s the same spine the Panthers trotted out when they beat the Storm back in Round 3 (and which produced the Panthers’ 3rd-highest LBVOA for the season of 47.59% – a number that also happens to be higher than Melbourne’s league-best season average). So, we’re not put off by the Panthers’ spine issues, however we are concerned with the Panthers’ go-forward. The Storm’s RMCVOA is far and away the best in the competition (-12.05%). Ordinarily, Penrith are able to counterbalance that with their own go-forward (the Panthers rank first in the league for RMVOA). However, the Panthers lean heavily on the work of Brian To’o and James Fisher-Harris to get going, with the pair ranked 1st and 4th in the league for run metres, respectively. With that pair both missing (as well as captain Isaah Yeo), it’s difficult to be confident they can replace that production against such an elite defensive unit. Consequently, we expect the Panthers to lose the exchanges between the 20s, and gradually find themselves losing field position through each exchange. Given how close these sides are, that shuold be enough to tip the scales in Melbourne’s favour, but if any side is equipped to defend prolonged periods on their own line, Penrith is it. The Panthers’ defense – which has only conceded more than 2 tries in a game 4 times all season – is so good that they’re always in with a chance, which is what makes their current price look so obscene. But if you’re looking for the best bet of this game, the +18.5 start looks delicious, considering they’ve only conceded more than 18 points twice all year (and no, the Storm game wasn’t one of them).
• For context of how odd that price looks for Penrith, consider the fact that the Bulldogs are paying just $4. Yes, that’s right – the same Bulldogs who’ve won just 2 games all season, and are currently mired in a 5-game losing streak. Though the Dogs have admittedly shown some signs of life recently, this matchup doesn’t look kind to them. Given Canterbury’s attacking limitations, they depend heavily on their defense to put them in with a shot (they haven’t won a game where their opponent has scored more than 16 since 2018). This is bad news against a Titans unit that has points to burn. The Titans put 30 on them in their Round 11 victory, and that was back when the Gold Coast weren’t even playing particularly well. More recently, the Titans have made 7 or more line breaks in 4 of their past 5 (the Bulldogs haven’t done it in any game this season), a period in which every opponent was ranked in the Top 8 for defense (Canterbury, by the way, rank 13th). It shouldn’t be too hard for the Gold Coast to hit a total that’s too much for the Doggies to run down.
• You could hear the sound of hearts collectively sinking across the Shire when the news broke of Sharks halfback Shaun Johnson being ruled out for four weeks with a hamstring tear. Theirs has been a tale of two seasons: at the end of Round 11 and with a record of 3-8, the Sharkies packed Chad Townsend’s bags and turned to Johnson as their #7. From that moment their season turned, going 5-2 since SJ took over, and launching the unlikeliest of runs for a playoff berth. SJ has almost single-handedly lifted his side’s LBVOA from -14.47% to 14.12% since he took the halfback gig, lifting their output by over 1 try per game. Without him, Cronulla will be forced to turn to the inexperienced duo of Brayden Trindall and Connor Tracey, a combo with less than 50 first grade games between them. Against Des Hasler’s retro umbrella defense this is likely to be an issue, as the Sea Eagles present an unusual defensive look that this pair are unlikely to be familiar with. Should they struggle to find the weaknesses in Des’ D, you’re likely to see the young halves getting consistently rushed, and turning the ball back inside to be gobbled up by the meat of Manly’s defense. It’s worth noting though that Matt Moylan is currently on the extended bench, and his late, flat style of footy has historically troubled Hasler’s defenses, with Moylan’s sides 6 from 7 against Hasler, and averaging 26 points per game. Should Moylan play, this has the potential to be a lot tighter than most expect, though we’d probably still rather be on Manly. If Moylan sits, Cronulla likely get pumped.

Related NRL News & Posts:

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2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 99/136 (73%) (Last week: 7/8)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Eels
• Roosters
• Storm
• Rabbitohs
• Sea Eagles
• Panthers
• Titans
• Sharks

Notes

• After an unusually competitive round of footy last weekend, Round 19 looks likely to revert to Season 2021 form, with the round comprised entirely of Top 8 vs Bottom 8 matchups. So, in a seemingly open-and-shut tipping week, which underdogs stand a realistic shot at pulling of an upset? The Raiders could be forgiven for fancying their chances against a Mitch Moses-less Eels outfit, following back-to-back upsets over Manly and Cronulla. We suppose it’s possible – and we don’t particularly rate Parramatta in the first place – but the Raiders would need to go up another level (or two) if they’re to pull it off. The Raiders came out with a new-look, offload-happy offense last weekend against the Sharks, in a strategy likely geared toward taking advantage of the Sharks’ slow, aging and/or lazy middle forwards. This may have been a coaching masterstroke by Ricky Stuart, but it didn’t really make their offense substantially better (their LBVOA vs Cronulla of -13.36% was actually marginally worse than their season average of -6.48%), and if continued the rest of the way would undermine the real secret to their renewed competitiveness – setting season-low error counts in their past two matches. Their immaculate handling has allowed the Raiders to earn massive possession shares for the past fortnight (60% and 55%), which has helped negate the side’s general lack of effectiveness on both sides of the ball. However, that doesn’t mean these shortcomings have disappeared. Against Parramatta – who have lost the possession battle just 4 times all season, in large part due to their uncanny knack of drawing penalties – even maintaining an unusually low error-rate may not be enough to dominate possession; and without all the footy, they’re likely to be exposed. They’ve lost Xavier Savage and Jack Wighton to injury, further limiting their offensive spark, and are forced to turn to Jordan Rapana to fill in at fullback (Rapana struggled mightily when forced into that role against Penrith in Round 5, and has won just 1 match from 5 career appearances at fullback). Parra mightn’t be at their best, but the Raiders are so short-handed and lacking in potency that it’s really not likely to matter.
• We tipped last week that a breakout performance could be on the cards for the Roosters, and though their 34-18 scoreline mightn’t jump out as particularly impressive, there were plenty of positive signs for the run home. For example, the Roosters’ 12 line breaks and 56 tackle breaks were both season-highs – and were achieved with James Tedesco watching on in his civvies. Also, after making a quiet return a week earlier, Victor Radley unleashed for 119m at over 10m-per-tote, helping his side to their 2nd-highest yardage total of the season (1749m). After struggling for both line breaks and yardage in back-to-back starts against heavyweights Melbourne and Penrith, it bodes extremely well for Sydney to see them racking up huge numbers again, albeit against a pretty ordinary defensive unit. Unfortunately for the Knights, Newcastle’s D isn’t significantly better than North Queensland’s, so it’s conceivable that we may see a repeat performance from the Roosters here. The Cows’ LBCVOA is 2nd-worst in the league, but Newcastle’s is still the 3rd-worst; and in RMCVOA, the Knights are actually worse (5.38% vs 2.03%). This shoddy defense has seen Newcastle concede 20+ points in 11 of their 17 starts so far, including a 38-4 whooping by the Roosters back in Round 8. If there’s a hope for the Knights, it’s that the Roosters’ D is traveling significantly worse now than it was back then. The Roosters were conceding 2.1 tries per game up until that Knights clash, a rate that has since more than doubled to 4.8. However, this period coincided with them losing a handful of players to Origin duties, and a further handful to injury. Assuming Siosiua Taukeiaho passes his fitness test, they’re now essentially back to full-strength, and we’d expect their defense to perform more in line with their early season numbers. That would spell bad news for Newie, and should vault the Roosters straight back into title contention (if you’d mistakenly written them off in the first place).
• The Storm have chosen to rest a host of Origin stars this weekend, but have the luxury of bringing guys like Josh Addo-Carr, Ryan Papenhuyzen and Nelson Asofa-Solomona straight into a side that just slaughtered Newcastle 48-4. Here, they’re meeting a Cowboys side whose defense is so non-existent that they’ve conceded 24+ points in all but 3 matches this season. The Cowboys have only been able to remain competitive on the back of their OK-ish offense (they rank 11th in the NRL) and an enormous dollop of extremely good fortune (of their 6 wins, 4 were by a 4 points or less). With Valentine Holmes and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow both out they’ll be down to their 3rd-string fullback, and frankly, their offense was badly outclassed in the first place (it’s not a secret that the Storm are the best attacking side in the league by a long, long way). In short, they don’t just need a fullback; they need a priest.
• Don’t worry, we’re not about to suggest you should back the Warriors this weekend – the Rabbitohs have been quietly building for weeks, and we’re puttingSouths’ clunker against Canterbury down to a combination of mid-game injuries and the absence of their talismanic fullback, Latrell Mitchell. BUT… can we take a moment to appreciate how good the Warriors were last weekend? The story of their season has been one of producing great numbers for very little reward, but their effort against Penrith was easily the high watermark of their year. Having seen their entire interchange bench decimated before halftime, the Warriors gritted their teeth and competed to the finish, refusing to get blown out in the manner that they really should have been. Perhaps even more eye-opening than their defensive resilience though, was the fact that they managed to create 7 line breaks against a Panthers unit that had conceded more than 3 in just 3 other games this season. The Warriors production would be considered impressive under any circumstances; to manage it while being denied the use of an interchange bench was nothing short of incredible. As usual, Reece Walsh was outrageous, producing 2 line breaks, 2 line break assists and 1 try assist, while Dallin Watene-Zelezniak turned in his best game of the season so far. Many have already written New Zealand off for the year due to the aforementioned injuries they collected last week, but with guys like Bunty Afoa, Ben Murdoch-Masila and Adam Pompey all available to come back into the side, we’re still giving them hope as long as Walsh remains healthy and available. Compared to the other teams priced similarly this week (Wests and Brisbane) the Warriors are light-years better, and if they could just get that first win, we still believe they have the potential to run the table the rest of the way. We fancy that win likely comes next weekend (against the Tigers), but they’re one of the few roughies this weekend who wouldn’t completely shock us if they jagged it.
• If you watched the Tigers game last weekend against Brisbane you may have noticed something a bit peculiar – both sides seemed to be heavily favouring attacking to their right edges. With your average player being right-handed (and hence more comfortable passing right-to-left), it naturally follows that most sides would be more comfortable attacking that way, and indeed the evidence supports this (of the Top 10 players in the league for line breaks, only Charlie Staines plays on the right). So, what gives? In the case of Brisbane, it’s likely they fancied the matchup of Kotoni Staggs vs Tigers’ debutante Junior Pauga – and if so, they were emphatically proven right. Pauga was relentlessly abused, conceding 2 line breaks and producing a tackle efficiency of just 57%. Expect the Sea Eagles and Daly Cherry-Evans to exploit this weakness, and for Pauga to be fed a steady diet of DCE, Tom Trbojevic, Haumole Olakau’atu and Jason Saab. Pencil the Tigers in for a shellacking.
• Attacking to the right may have worked pretty well for the Broncos last week (though not well enough to actually win), but it would be a shockingly bad option against the Panthers. For the first time since Round 12, the Panthers will have their complete left edge reunited – an edge on which none of their starters have conceded more than 4 line breaks this season… total. No, if there’s a weakness in the Panthers’ line it’ll be on their right edge, where Tyrone May and Kurt Capewell (3rd and 2nd worst in their team for line breaks conceded) will be defending together. Unfortunately for Brisbane, attacking that pairing requires a genuine threat from their left second-rower, and Alex Glenn and his 11 tackle busts for the season ain’t it. So, expect Brisbane to barely trouble the Panthers’ line, with their points most likely to come from kicking to whoever lines up against Brian To’o (at time of writing, Xavier Coates remains included on the extended bench). We doubt that’ll equate to a big score, and certainly not one big enough to keep pace with a Panthers unit looking to make a statement ahead of their Round 20 blockbuster against Melbourne.
• Of all this week’s underdogs, the Dragons are surely the most likely to pull off an upset, given the fact they’re facing a Titans side with the worst defense in the NRL, and whose offense may lose a bit without halfback Jamal Fogarty. It’s probably worth pointing out though, that while the Titans’ offense has been generally elite, Fogarty personally actually isn’t having much of a season. In fact, Ash Taylor and AJ Brimson both have produced more line break assists, despite having started significantly fewer matches. Fogarty’s value has largely come as the team’s primary attacking kicking option, but that’s a role that Taylor should be capable of filling more than adequately, so we doubt how much the Titans actually lose here; and regardless, the Dragons will be short one of their starting halves (Corey Norman), too. If you feel like picking St George-Illawarra, you’re essentially gambling that their offense has an “on” day – throughout the season, their attacking performances have yo-yoed up and down, with very little explanation. They looked explosive in running up the score against Brisbane, for example; or in chasing down the Raiders. But sandwiched between those two matches was a 1-try clunker against Canterbury (and before you ask – yes, Matt Dufty played that game). Similarly, after a shock early-season 26-12 rout of Parramatta, they backed it up by being held to just 14 points and 3 line breaks by the Warriors. Last weekend, with their Top 8 spot tentatively balanced and facing a Manly side whose own offense was limited without Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans, the Dragons mustered just 3 tries and a paltry 15 tackle busts (their least of the season). Though it’s certainly conceivable that the Dragons could turn up on Sunday and blow the Titans away, it’s equally as likely that they show up and do very little of anything, whereas you can be certain the Titans will be difficult to contain. Even in being held to just 8 points by the Eels last weekend, the Titans still managed to rip through for 7 line breaks – the 4th-most anyone has put on Parra this year. Put simply, we have more confidence in the Gold Coast turning up in front of their home crowd with the Top 8 just a single win away than we do in St George putting it together (though we understand those who want to roll the dice).
• Credit where it’s due – the Bulldogs’ 32-24 loss to Souths last weekend was probably their best performance of the year so far, though it probably should come with an asterisk (it also speaks volumes that their best performance was nonetheless a loss). The Rabbitohs without Latrell are much like Manly without Tom Trbojevic – not a complete gimme, but a looooong way short of elite. And regardless – one swallow doesn’t make a summer, and it would be a mistake to assume that because they turned up for one game that they’ve suddenly figured it out. Indeed, the last time they made 4 line breaks in a game (against the Saints in Round 14) the Dogs went on to average 1 per game for the next 3 weeks. You can point to the Dogs’ upset win over Cronulla in Round 7 as evidence that they’ve got the Sharks’ measure if you wish, but be aware that the Dogs were outdone in that game 5-2 in line breaks, 37-14 in tackle busts, and they got outgained by 426 metres. If you’re of the view that that game provides evidence that the Dogs are somehow better than Cronulla, you’re entitled to that viewpoint; however, we’d suggest you find a different boutique rugby league website as you clearly haven’t absorbed anything.

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2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 92/128 (72%) (Last week: 3/4)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Eels
• Sea Eagles
• Sharks
• Roosters
• Storm
• Panthers
• Tigers
• Rabbitohs

Notes

• Though we’re inclined to agree with popular opinion that the Eels should be good enough to get home on Friday night, we certainly don’t consider it a lock. The main concern for us is the quality of Parramatta’s defense (or lack thereof). With the Eels having conceded the 3rd fewest points so far this season, you could be forgiven for assuming that their D must be the real deal. However, once you scratch beneath the surface, you quickly discover they’re anything but. Sure, they’ve managed to hold their opponents to less than 18 points in 10 different games this season. But who exactly were those teams? Well, 8 of them were sides with negative Offense VOAs, meaning they’ve held just 2 above average offenses to under 18 all season – and even those two come with asterisks (the Melbourne game was in a torrential downpour; the Panthers were missing half their spine). This matters because for all their faults, the Titans do come armed with a heavyweight offense – as evidenced by their last-start 44-6 hammering of Canberra. Of course, the Titans’ own D is infinitely worse (indeed, it’s the worst in the league by a wide margin), but the possibility remains that the Titans could easily drop 20+ on Parra and potentially make this a contest. More than likely, it’ll be a contest they still find a way to lose (something like their 40-30 loss to Souths, for example), but a contest nonetheless, and for that reason we’re not inclined to be heavily invested in Parra.
• Many punters saw the Sea Eagles‘ shock loss to Canberra last weekend as confirmation that Manly without Turbo offer absolutely nothing. For the most part, we’re inclined to agree. However, that game in particular didn’t really support the argument at all. In fact, Manly’s attacking numbers were pretty consistent with their typical performance: their LBVOA of 16.21% was pretty much bang on their season average of 16.67%; their run metres actually climbed from 1.21% to 2.79% (which may or may not be the result of Jake “310th in the league for metres-per-carry” Trbojevic being unavailable). Rather, the disappointing result was almost entirely due to their pitiful 40% possession share – and it’s unrealistic to assume that Tom’s presence would have significantly changed that. Manly made 14 errors (their 4th most this year, and most since Round 7), and the Raiders were able to force a ridiculous 8 drop-outs (their previous best in a game was 4). Sometimes, it just isn’t your night. It’s unfortunate, but you shouldn’t draw any other conclusions from the result than that. So, we fully expect Manly to shake it off and get things back on track this weekend against an inconsistent and undermanned Dragons unit, even with Turbo expected to sit another one out.
• Valentine Holmes was the big injury to come out of Wednesday night, but we weren’t about to tip the Cowboys, anyway. Though the Roosters were hardly convincing in scratching out a 6-point win over the Bulldogs, we saw what we were looking for from Sydney. Specifically, a return to dominance from their forward pack, who’d been repeatedly whacked in their past three starts, with the Tri-Colours getting outgained by over 350m in their past three consecutive matches. Against Canterbury (aka “The Worst Pack In The NRL”) the Roosters flexed all over them, winning the yardage by 362m, with Jared Waerea-Hargreaves awakening from his recent slumber and dropping a massive 219m on Canterbury’s pack (92m of which came after contact). For Sydney, their attacking rhythm will inevitably click as their stars return, with Victor Radley back last weekend, and this week joined by Angus Crichton. When James Tedesco and Siosiua Taukeiaho return next week, the Roosters will be essentially back to full-strength (excluding season-ending injuries to Lindsay Collins and Luke Keary; Joseph Suaalii is far too raw and had no business in their Top 17 in the first place). Talking heads have been writing off the Roosters for weeks, but we remain of the view that a break-out pereformance is on the immediate horizon, and may very well come this week. The Cowboys’ D has now leaked 4+ tries in their past 7 straight games, the first of which was in a 10 line break effort by… the Roosters.
• Obviously, the inverse side of our Manly argument is that – in light of the sheer volume of footy the Raiders had, especially in Manly’s red zone (Canberra had a massive 50 tackles in their opponent’s 20) – we weren’t particularly whelmed by Canberra at all. Their attack was clunky and directionless (although this was to be expected given the mass of unavailabilities they were battling), and they were only able to earn the W courtesy of unusually clean handling and the aforementioned 8 forced drop-outs. To highlight just how big an outlier that effort was from Canberra, consider this: in just that one game, replacement half Matt Frawley produced 4 forced drop-outs – the same number Jack Wighton has from his past 14 games (and for further evidence of Wighton’s dreadful short kicking game, you need only have watched him on Wednesday night, twice hammering it into Row 6). Frawley’s reward? Being immediately dropped. Though we acknowledge that Wighton’s position is safe, we believe there’s an argument to be made for keeping Frawley at the expense of Sam Williams  – partly to retain Frawley’s surprisingly effective short kicking game, but also to attempt to shore up the Raiders’ defense. Since replacing his namesake George Williams at halfback, Sam has been repeatedly targeted by opposition offenses, and the Raiders’ D keeps getting shredded as a result. Canberra’s LBCVOA has climbed from a roughly league-average 1.89% to 17.04% since Williams took over, a figure that would place them 4th last in the NRL if extrapolated over the season. The difference is easily attributed to Williams, who has missed almost twice as many tackles as George (19 v 10) in almost half as many games (6 v 10). Accordingly, Sam has leaked 0.83 line breaks per game vs George’s 0.7. Frawley, meanwhile, didn’t leak any in his one start, and missed just 2 tackles. If Canberra could find a way to force a few more repeat sets and improve their defense in a single stroke, they could quickly become more competitive; unfortunately, we doubt that’s likely to happen while Ricky Stuart persists with the status quo. So, Canberra fans are left hoping that the Sharks just wet the bed. It’s certainly possible – they are just two weeks removed from a loss to Brisbane, after all – but we don’t think it’s likely. Cronulla should comfortably get to 20+ against this defense, which is likely to be enough.
• When we first sat down on Thursday arvo to go through this week’s games, the Storm/Knights game on Saturday night seemed curiously priced (Newy were $6.50), with Newcastle’s price not seeming to have accounted for their recent influx of troops. The Knights’ last start was the first time all season they’ve had their first-choice spine united, and they celebrated with a 38-0 beat-down of North Queensland. Kalyn Ponga, Mitch Pearce and co are only going to get better the more time they spend together on the field, and now their pack – which was already among the very best in the league – is further boosted by the return of Tyson Frizell. Melbourne, meanwhile, remain without Harry Grant and Ryan Papenhuyzen, and have a host of stars who will be either backing up three days after Origin, or worse, potentially late scratchings. We weren’t about to declare the Knights certain victors, but this surely had the potential to be significantly closer than it would have been if, say, it had been played a month ago. Unfortunately for the Novocastrians though, word leaked out this afternoon that Pearce is doubtful with a hamstring injury picked up at training. Assuming Pearce sits, the long odds on Newcastle now appear to make a lot more sense, though we’d still give them a better shot than what those odds suggest (at $6.50, the implied probability of a Newcastle win is around 15%), remembering that Ponga, not Pearce, is the main driver of Newcastle’s attack. Still, are you going to take the Knights straight up? No.
• For those of you with a keen interest in watching dreadful halves fumble around massacring their own team’s attacking opportunities, you won’t want to miss the early Sunday game between the Panthers and Warriors. For Penrith, you’ll get to enjoy the attacking stylings of Tyrone May, whose chronic inability to engage the defensive line is matched only by his desire to turn the ball back inside for another ineffective hit-up. Consider the plight of Panthers’ right centre Stephen Crichton, the poor bloke stuck outside May. Since claiming the right centre gig in Round 7, Crichton has enjoyed an average of 19 pass receipts per game; not so with May responsible for getting him the footy. No, with May, that drops to 14 receipts per game, showing that the Panthers’ right edge is not only getting lower quality ball (which is to be expected – you can’t expect May to be Nathan Cleary), but a lower quantity as well. With the Panthers’ attack largely confined to the left (where the prodigious Matt Burton is left to carry the load), it’s unsurprising then that they’ve scored 18 points or less in all 3 of May’s starts (something that’s happened just once in the Panthers’ other 13 games, by the way), winning just 1. So the Warriors are in the box seat, right? Not so fast… they have a Tyrone May of their own. You see, over at New Zealand, they get to see their attacking play hamstrung by Sean O’Sullivan. Like May, O’Sullivan produces shockingly few assists (he has just 1 try assist and 2 line break assists from a whopping 7 starts, fewer than household names like Adam Clune, Phoenix Crossland and… Tyrone May), in large part due to his curious passion for running it himself over and over again. We say ‘curious’ because, frankly, he isn’t any good at it. If his high volume of runs netted him a bunch of line breaks, fair enough. But no, his 44 runs have earned just 2 line breaks (in contrast, his halves partner Kodi Nikorima has ripped through for 7 from 61 runs – perhaps he should be taking the line on a bit more?). Accordingly, the Warriors have been held to 18 or less in 5 of O’Sullivan’s 7 starts (they’ve been kept to this mark in just 3 of their remaining 9 games). So, what can you expect here? Probably a low-scoring, painful to watch arm-wrestle, in which the Warriors are more competitive than many expect, but ultimately find another way to blow it.
• How exactly the Broncos – currently 2nd last and owners of the 2nd-worst offense in football – come to be favourites in a rugby league game against anyone other than Canterbury, we just don’t know. Ok, they won their last start. But did anyone who watched that seriously think they looked good? Everyone’s quick to turn the blowtorch on the Tigers for having leaked 7+ line breaks in their past 3 straight matches, but look at who Wests have been getting hammered by: the Eels, Storm and Rabbitohs (teams #7, #1 and #4 for Offense). The Broncos, meanwhile, last week made it 5 weeks on the trot they’ve conceded 7+, from a group of offenses including Canberra (8th), Cronulla (11th) and St George-Illawarra (14th). In short, they’ve arguably been defensively worse than the Tigers, yet that’s being conveniently forgotten thanks to a fluky win. In reality, both defenses are bog average, but offensively the Tigers have been night-and-day better than Brisbane. Indeed, some of the Tigers’ attacking production has been spectacular, considering how little football they’ve actually had over the past month. They’ve put 3 line breaks past Melbourne, 4 past Parra and 5 past Souths – all in matches where they’ve had 44% possession or less. This would suggest that Wests shouldn’t need a lot of ball to put points on against Brisbane (who themselves rank 12th for defense), and if they can get anything resembling an even possession share (admittedly no guarantee given their absurdly high recent penalty counts), they should easily get north of 24+. In fact, we’d suggest that possession is of most value to Wests not for the purpose of accumulating scoring opportunities, but rather for protecting their own crummy defense – when the Tigers earn 50% or more of the possession, they concede 4 tries per game (which is poor, but gettable given the standard of their offense); when they have 49% or less, that climbs to almost 7, regardless of opponent. One good way of maintaining possession is scoring tries, and frankly, we have far more faith in the Tigers’ offense than we do in whatever it is that Brisbane are likely to throw up. We’re backing Wests, potentially in a blow-out if they can get going early.
• The Rabbitohs are really building into some form, and this week are getting back Latrell Mitchell, Cameron Murray, Damien Cook and Dane Gagai from State of Origin. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are still rubbish, and this week are getting back Jayden Okunbor from Port Macquarie Middle School. It’s hard to imagine any sort of path for Canterbury to win this match; in fact, it’s hard to even imagine them losing by less than 30.

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2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 89/124 (72%) (Last week: 5/8)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Sea Eagles
• Rabbitohs
• Roosters
• Sharks

Notes

• Ordinarily, we’d have expected to fill this column with a detailed examination of how bad the Sea Eagles are without their megastar fullback, Tom Trbojevic – you know, about how they got belted in 4 of their first 5 games before his return; about how their LBVOA jumps from -29.24% without him to 46.02% when he plays; or about how Dylan Walker has a career winning percentage of 60% when he plays centre or from the bench, but his teams have won just 44% of games when he’s in the spine (he’ll be deputising at five-eighth this week, by the way). But as it happens, the Raiders are playing so badly that none of that is likely to matter. Sure, the Raiders’ offense might be better than Manly’s (although that’s certainly no given, given the enormous losses of Bailey Simonsson, Jack Wighton, Josh Papalii and Elliott Whitehead), but their D will almost certainly be quite a bit worse. With both sides having played the Gold Coast over the past fortnight, the Titans can provide us with something of a barometer for how each defense is traveling. Against Manly, the Titans managed to find 5 tries, but could muster just a single line break. Against Canberra, they’d find 8 tries while tearing through for an absurd 12 line breaks. With a defense this flimsy, we couldn’t possibly recommend the Raiders, no matter how juicy the price.
• In contrast, we actually could get on board with punters who want to get a bit frisky and have a nibble on the Cowboys while they’re over $5. Here, both sides have been savaged by Origin, which throws a certain degree of ‘lucky dip’ into how each side may play. Objectively, you’d have to say the Rabbitohs are more adversely affected than North Queensland – Latrell Mitchell is virtually irreplaceable in their offense, with 3 of their 4 lowest LBVOAs of the season coming within the 4 weeks he missed through suspension; Damien Cook’s speed out of dummy-half would have terrorised the Cows’ lumbering forwards (something Benji Marshall simply doesn’t have at this point in his career); Cameron Murray and Jai Arrow typically provide the starch for the defense in the middle of the field; and Dane Gagai is also a player who is unavailable. In contrast, the Cows are missing just Valentine Holmes, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Francis Molo. Though the Hammer is certainly a weapon, they’ve played 5 games without him already this season (winning 3 of them), and Molo is just a rotation piece in a typically-effective go-forward machine (he’s played more than 40 minutes in a game just once this season, while the group as a collective ranks 3rd in the league for RMVOA). The only really significant out for North Queensland then is Valentine Holmes, and even that isn’t a deal-breaker for us. For one, Scott Drinkwater is moreso the key player in the Cowboys offense than Holmes, who is closer to being the “1B” to Drinky’s “1A” (as evidenced by Drinkwater’s 28 try involvements vs Holmes’ 13). Also, don’t sleep on Holmes’ replacement, Daejarn Asi, either. For whatever reason, Asi has yet to be used by Todd Payten this season, but he’s an electric highlight reel on legs, who is very much a capable ballplayer from the back (indeed, 3 of his 5 first grade appearances have been at five-eighth, and he’s spent much of 2021 playing halfback in Queensland Cup). Of course, the Rabbits are a far better team in the first place, and while we think the gap between them has been significantly closed due to their respective unavailabilities, we wouldn’t go far as to put the Cowboys in front straight up. But if you can get north of $5? Yeah, we could get in on that.
• We were extremely disappointed to see the Roosters roll over and quit against the Storm last weekend – no matter what adversities have befallen them in the past, we can’t ever recall a Roosters team tanking that badly (with the single, significant exception of their 60-8 Round 20 capitulation against the Rabbits last year; though in that case, we remain of the view they were intentionally tanking to land Penrith in the Finals – a theory that obviously didn’t apply here). Of particular concern to us is that this was the 3rd week on the trot that they’ve been completely dominated for field position, getting outgained by 380m+ across each of these weeks (they’d been outgained by this margin just twice all season before that, and won the yardage battle in 7 of their first 12). The return of Victor Radley should help in this regard, as will the Bulldogs’ shockingly shit run defense (they rank 2nd-last in the league, and have been outgained in every game this season but one – their upset win over St George-Illawarra). The Roosters have a nice little stretch coming up, with a few soft match-ups and (finally) an empty casualty ward. A win here should be a good spark-plug for their season, before their Origin reps parachute back in next weekend. Take the Roosters with confidence.
• If you’re not getting a piece of North Queensland, the other most tempting roughie of the week is surely the Warriors. Unlike North Queensland, the Warriors actually produce consistently good numbers, and present as every bit the equal of the Sharks. The sticking point here is only that they just don’t seem to know how to win. Last weekend, they dominated the Dragons from the opening whistle, repeatedly deterring the Saints’ offense, despite having just a 46% possession share and conceding 5 drop-outs – the Warriors’ resolve defending their own goal-line really was stirring stuff. Stirring, that is, until the final ten minutes, at which point not only did the wheels fall off, but the windscreen wipers, side mirrors and a huge chunk of the chassis. We could sit here listing all the different ways that the Warriors worked to gift the win to an opponent showing no signs of earning it, but it would be too difficult to read the monitor through our tears. Nevertheless, we’ll continue to argue that the Warriors are one of the better teams trying to wrestle their way out of the bottom 8, and however the season pans out, that’s a hill we’ll die on. The return of Reece Walsh gives us plenty of hope, though our excitement is tempered by the continued presence of Sean O’Sullivan, a halfback rivaled only by Tyrone May for total lack of attacking impact (we can’t adequately articulate our dismay when both suddenly appeared for their respective teams last Friday). Against a Cronulla side coming off an embarrassing loss to Brisbane, surely this is a winnable game for New Zealand. Cronulla have a low-impact front row that struggles to bend the line in any way (Aaron Woods and Aidan Tolman have a combined 16 tackle breaks from 29 appearances; the Warriors’ starting props have 49 from 19), and one of their best attacking weapons, Matt Moylan, is once again on the sidelines. To top it off, the Sharks’ dismal D has now gone 4 weeks on the bounce conceding 6 or more line breaks (the Warriors have hit this mark just 4 times all season, and not since Round 9). The only thing holding us back from taking the Warriors outright is that these kinds of mismatches were all true last week (and the week before that, too), and somehow they keep snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The Sharks, in contrast, seem to have made a habit out of winning even when they don’t play particularly well. So, consider our tipping of Cronulla more a case of caution after touching a hot stove one too many times (but if you’re getting $2+ and are a bit of a masochist, we actually have the Warriors as superb value).

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