The Obstruction Rule

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 148/200 (74%) (Last week: 1/2)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Panthers

Notes

• When you consider how short-priced the Panthers were as favourites when these sides met three weeks ago, it’s a bit of a surprise to see this year’s decider relatively evenly priced, even allowing for the fact that the Rabbitohs ran out winners 16-10 in that match. Since that particular evening (in which the Panthers actually out-gunned the Bunnies for line breaks, 5-4), Penrith have done nothing but totally shut down their past two opponents, conceding just 2 tries in as many matches (both from kicks) with an absurd LBCVOA of -50.00% over that fortnight (for comparison, the Rabbitohs’ was -10.33%).  Yes, the Rabbitohs won the last meeting between these sides, but most would agree that the Rabbitohs turned in one of their best performances of the season to pull that off (it was just the 5th time all season they’ve held a team to 1 try or fewer – something the Panthers have achieved a whopping 9 times), and yet they still required the Panthers’ bungling of multiple try-scoring opportunities to get over the line. If Souths at their best only just edge Penrith playing at something approaching their worst (the Panthers squandered plenty of chances, but they reserved their most inept attacking display for the following week against Parramatta), then surely the most likely result is a Penrith victory here – either because the Rabbitohs are just a little bit worse than they were in Finals Week One, or because the Panthers are just a little bit better. And to be fair, we fancy everybody knows it, too. Which is why the arguments being trotted out for why Souths will win are wide and varied, and include just about any reason you can think of other than actually being better at football than Penrith. Such reasons may include:
  • Penrith are too tired after playing 3 tough games in a row: To be fair, we don’t doubt that the past few matches must have taken some kind of toll on the Panthers. But that being said, when you consider the fact that these guys play some 24+ matches over a season with just the single bye, you can’t help feeling like the physical toll of playing three consecutive matches gets a little bit overblown at this time of year. And regardless, the overwhelming majority of the Panthers have played so little football in the past three months, you could make the argument that several may only now be approaching peak match fitness. Of the 17 who’ll be playing in the GF on Sunday night, only Matt Burton, Jarome Luai, Viliame Kikau and Liam Martin have not had at least one week off since Round 20, with 8 of Penrith’s Grand Final having had at least 2.
  • The Panthers are carrying too many injuries: For a start, we ought to point out that Round 25 was the first time Penrith had run out with a full-strength line-up since Round 1, so however injured they may be, their squad remains stronger than what they played with through the regular season (a regular season in which they won all but 3 games). Yes, they’ve lost Tevita Pangai Jr, but they also regain Moses Leota. And the remaining injuries are injuries they’ve been carrying for a while. Dylan Edwards missed these sides’ first finals clash with his current foot injury, but turned in a man-of-the-match effort against Melbourne. Brian To’o may be carrying a noticeable limp, but he limped his way to a team-high 209m against Melbourne (56 post-contact) on his gammy leg. It seems odd to assume then, that these injuries are suddenly insurmountable, when in several cases the Panthers’ best performers have been the ones carrying the niggles.
  • Wayne Bennett will have something up his sleeve: While you’ll get no argument from us that Bennett is a far more successful coach than his Penrith counterpart (that much should be immediately obvious), the idea that Bennett will surely make up for his side’s shortcomings by out-coaching Cleary just doesn’t add up. If Bennett knows the secret to beating Penrith, why didn’t he use it when his side was losing 5 straight to Penrith since 2019? And if coaching were to be the difference, that would imply that Craig Bellamy – the most accomplished coach of the past decade – is some kind of dunderhead who apparently couldn’t figure it out himself (if he could, it would follow that Melbourne should be here instead). That conceptually seems equal parts wrong and disrespectful.
• All of this being said, please don’t misunderstand us – we’re not saying for a second that Souths can’t win. Rather, we’re just saying that the popular narratives being spoon-fed to the masses via the mainstream media are dubious at best, and irrational at worst. Souths absolutely can win – heck, they literally did it within the past month – but if they do, it won’t be because of the reasons being trumpeted. Rather, it will be through the incredible development of their forwards through the back half of the year, on both sides of the ball. In their win over Penrith, the Rabbitohs were able to do a Penrith on Penrith, dominating the Panthers’ middles on their way to narrowly winning the yardage battle by 21m. That may not sound like much, but consider the fact that Penrith have won the yardage exchange in 21 of 27 matches this year – this is where Penrith have won their matches (of Penrith’s 4 losses, 3 came in matches where they trailed for field position). In the 16 games in which Penrith have won the yardage by 200m or more, they average a dominant 5.6 tries per game – a number that is virtually insurmountable when backed up by Penrith’s league-best defense. But when Penrith don’t hit that 200m+ mark, that average drops to just 2.6. So if you’ve been thinking that Penrith haven’t looked as hot through the back half of the year, you’re right – but you should take a good look at their yardage. In the handful of games that their middles dominated, Penrith’s offense clicked just fine, regardless of how many stars they had out. But if Penrith run into a brick wall – like the one the Rabbitohs put up three weeks ago – all of a sudden their offense looks a lot less dangerous. This certainly makes the loss of Pangai seem to take on extra significance, but let us point out one thing: when Penrith beat the Bunnies back in Round 23, Pangai managed just 67m at an embarrassing 5.6m per carry. The guys who did the heavy lifting that night – Moses Leota and Scott Sorenson, who combined for 243m at 8.4 metres-per-tote weren’t playing when Souths won three weeks ago. Without these key middles, the Panthers were left starting Matt Eisenhuth (who hasn’t even made the 21-man squad since) and using Liam Martin for a significant chunk as a middle forward. Which isn’t to say that Penrith are suddenly unbeatable, but it would be fair to think that Souths will need to be better again just to achieve a similar result.
• And should they manage to be successful in slowing down Penrith’s offense, will that be enough to secure the premiership? Maybe, but probably not. We went into some detail last week about how just how elite Penrith’s defense is (it’s objectively about twice as good as Souths’ in relative terms), but it presents a uniquely bad match-up for the Rabbitohs’ offense. Souths attack (which is extremely good, and deservedly the 2nd best in the league) is built around two key strengths: Damien Cook getting out from dummy half; and an incomparably smooth left edge offense. With Penrith’s swarming middle D relentlessly dominating the ruck (they rank 2nd in RMCVOA), Cook rarely receives a quick play-the-ball, which consequently removes his threat to run from dummy half. As the Bunnies ran roughshod over Manly last week, for example, Cook ran 7 times for 78m, throwing in a sexy try assist to boot. However, he has 7 runs combined in his 3 matches against Penrith this year, the direct result of the Panthers’ dominance of the ruck. And as good as Souths’ left edge is offensively, the Panthers’ right edge is the best defensive group in the competition (and we should point out that this right edge was incomplete when these sides last met, with Stephen Crichton filling in for Edwards at fullback). With Penrith dominating the middle and being capable of shutting down even the most proficient attacking left edges, it should come as no surprise that Penrith have held Souths to 3 tries or less in their past 6 meetings straight. In fact, it may well be that the Bunnies’ right edge is their most likely to produce points (and indeed, it was down this edge that they scored the match-winner three weeks ago).
• In short, we could see this going one of two ways. The first is that Penrith are able to get over the top through their forwards, laying a platform for their offense to kick into gear. Should Penrith win the yardage battle by 200m+, we fully expect them to run away with it and win by 13+ (again). The second, though, is that Souths come out breathing fire and match their more fancied counterparts set-for-set. In that case, this all of a sudden becomes a real contest, and probably one that resembles the Panthers’ last few games. Perhaps Penrith have built confidence from their most recent successes, and that proves the difference deep into the match. Or perhaps they get spooked, and the old heads of South Sydney, like Adam Reynolds and Benji Marshall, have the class to guide Souths to victory. On balance, we’re of the view that you have to give the edge to Penrith because they require less to win – the Panthers have the upside to comfortably score 20+ if they can get rolling down the field, but have shown over the past fortnight that they can also tackle their way home with as few as 8 points (the Bunnies, meanwhile, haven’t won a game all year when scoring less than 16). For what it’s worth, we’re leaning towards the Rabbitohs’ middles aiming up and turning this into a slugfest, with Penrith eventually defending their way to a third title. Penrith by 6.

Related NRL News & Posts:

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2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 147/198 (74%) (Last week: 2/2)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Rabbitohs
• Storm

Notes

• While Sea Eagles fans would have no doubt enjoyed their thumping win over a dreadful Roosters outfit, we didn’t really learn anything new about Manly. We already knew they can run up the score against defenses that don’t want to be there; what we want to see is whether or not Manly’s style of offense can trouble an elite defense that’s actually having a go. Though we got an answer to that question a fortnight ago when they were held to 2 tries and 1 line break against Melbourne (the answer, by the way, was a resounding “NO”), they’ll get another crack here against the league’s 3rd-best defense, the Rabbitohs. Though Souths have certainly had the odd embarrassing defensive effort this year (indeed, they copped 106 points in 2 games against Melbourne and Penrith), that hasn’t really happened for a while. They haven’t leaked more than 4 tries in a game since the Penrith debacle all the way back in Round 11, and have limited their opponents to 2 or fewer line breaks in 8 of their last 14 matches. They admittedly gave up a few in their last start to the Panthers, but we’d argue they made up for it through their dominance in the middle of the field. Despite facing the best pack in the NRL, the Bunnies somehow contained all but 2 of Penrith’s forwards to 75m or less, with Penrith’s starting middles James Fisher-Harris and Matt Eisenhuth kept to 7 and 6 metres-per-carry respectively (unsurprisingly, Eisenhuth has since been banished to the Netherrealm). If this sort of middle defense doesn’t make Manly nervous, they should check again – though it was Melbourne’s offense that showed up on the highlight reel, it was the dominance of the Storm’s middles a fortnight ago that laid the foundation for the Eagles getting their arses to them. Starting middles Josh Aloiai and Marty Taupau were held to 7 and 7.5 metres-per-tote respectively, with no Manly forwards even cracking 90 metres. With no platform to work from, Tom Trbojevic was easily shut down, as the Eagles were starved of field position. This is a recipe that’s been followed by every team that’s beaten the Eagles this year: the Storm outgained them by 659m and previously by 410m; the Raiders by 508m; the Knights by 346m – the list goes on and on. If you want to take Turbo out of the game, the first step is to play as much of the game as possible down Manly’s end, where he’s less inclined to be involved creatively, and where any line breaks you do concede are less likely to lead to tries. And if they spend enough time down there themselves, you’d have to fancy the Rabbitohs’ left edge’s chances of earning a few meat pies themselves. We have to give Manly some credit and say that their pack has improved significantly as the year’s gone on, and if they can somehow get on top of the Bunnies through the middle, it’s not at all beyond the realms of possibility that they could jag the upset here. Though the Rabbitohs are almost at full strength, their one key absence – Latrell Mitchell – is a pretty darn big one, and his loss likely takes away the option for Souths to straight blow Manly off the park (which they otherwise probably would). Instead, they’re going to have to be prepared to grind, play field position, and defend their way to victory. We’ve already seen them do it against a better side than this Eagles squad, so we’ll give them the benefit of the doubt that they can back up that effort again here. But they need only look at what happened to the Roosters in the opening quarter last week to see what can happen if you dare to phone it in against Manly.
• In the second preliminary final, we find ourselves asking the same question we ask every other week: can anybody beat the Storm? As a general rule, it’s good practice to simply pop a tick next to the ‘Storm’ box on your tipping card and go about the rest of your day (indeed, we’ll be doing exactly that), but if there’s any team perfectly built to stop the Melbourne juggernaut, the Panthers are it. Though it should come as no secret that Penrith’s offense looks disturbingly clunky of late, outpacing the Storm in a shoot-out is not really a winning strategy in the first place. The Storm have charged through the competition this year behind the league’s best offense, scoring 20+ in an incredible 22 of their 25 matches played (a figure that is absolutely obscene). But do you know what happened in the 3 matches where they didn’t get to 20 points? They lost. All three. The thing here is that while the Storm defense is extremely good (they rank 2nd in the league, after all), it’s not Penrith good. While the Storm’s elite D has conceded 2 tries or fewer in an impressive 11 matches (which, to be fair, is truly fantastic), the Panthers have done it a ridiculous 18 times. So, if the Panthers are able to find a way to add the Storm to that tally (for a second time), all of a sudden they’re in with a sniff. The Storm generally seem to give up an extra try or so compared to the Panthers, whose defense puts them in with a shot at winning games they otherwise have no business being competitive in (for Exhibit A, just look at the collection of tries the Panthers bombed last week against Parramatta; the Storm turned in a similar attacking effort against the Eels a fortnight earlier – and lost, 22-10). In an effort to artificially lift the Storm’s points tally, we’d expect them to take a leaf out of the Rabbitohs’ book and take every opportunity to slot penalty goals against Penrith (the Rabbitohs’ 6 points scored from penalties ultimately proved the difference in their finals clash). Otherwise, they risk getting stymied again and again as every other elite offense has been by the Panthers’ D (with the notable exception of the Storm’s 37-10 hammering of a depleted Penrith squad in Round 20, the Panthers have otherwise averaged 12 points conceded per game from 7 matches against Top 5 Offenses, Melbourne included). Nevertheless, we still have to tip Melbourne because, frankly, they’re the best team in football and they have more ways to win. If Melbourne can jump out to a multi-score lead, we doubt that Penrith’s struggling offense would be capable of running them down. And even if they don’t, you’d have to fancy Melbourne’s chances in the latter stages in the event it goes down to the wire, given their depth of experience and history of winning big matches (though we admit that that Cleary fellow from Penrith is pretty handy in those spots, too). In contrast, Penrith’s only serious option is to grit their teeth and sign up for another brutal, 80-minute slugfest if they’re to get home. We can’t rule it out because their D really is that good, but they’ll need to be near perfect if they’re to pull it off.

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2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 145/196 (74%) (Last week: 3/4)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Sea Eagles
• Panthers

Notes

• You can’t say we didn’t warn you. Last week, we went into some detail explaining how the Sea Eagles‘ gaudy attacking numbers have come exclusively against sub-par defenses, highlighting how in 7 starts against above average defenses, the Eagles have yet to score more than 3 tries in a match and average a pedestrian 13 points-per-game. You can now stretch that out to 8 starts after Melbourne held Manly to just 2 tries and 12 points in a Week One finals walkover. The bad news for Manly fans is that this week’s opponents, the Roosters, are also an above-average D. The good news, though (if you want to call it that) is that the Roosters’ D is also incredibly inconsistent. In 2021, the Roosters have turned in 7 shockingly bad defensive clunkers (against Wests, NQ – twice – Brisbane, Gold Coast, St George-Illawarra and Souths). In these 7 starts, the Roosters posted numbers that would place them firmly among the Bottom 4, conceding 4.5 tries per game, with a LBCVOA of 24.83% (which would be 2nd-last in the NRL extrapolated across the season), a RMCVOA of 3.89% (4th-last) and a TBCVOA of 27.70% (dead last). Funnily enough, they actually won 5 of those games, but that’s not the point. Rather, we want to highlight how good they are when they’re do turn up to play. You see, across the remaining 18 games – a selection of games that interestingly includes 4 games against Top-4 ranked offenses, including Manly – they average just 3 tries conceded per game, with a LBCVOA of -33.41% (2nd), a RMCVOA of -3.70% (5th) and a TBCVOA of -0.54% (8th). What we’re painting here is a picture of a Jekyll-and-Hyde defense, that roughly 30% of the time turns up and embarrasses itself (including against some pretty mediocre football teams), but the other 70% of the season has been gold-plated elite (despite facing some of the very best footy teams). It’s fair to assume that Trent Robinson is aware of this fact, and it’s also fair to say that he considers Sam Walker’s weak defense a significant contributor. Through Weeks 10-14, the Roosters turned in 3 of their stinkers, with the only exception – their 44-16 win over the Raiders – coming in the one game Walker didn’t play. And since their recent shellacking at the hands of South Sydney, Walker has found himself relegated to the bench. We don’t want to sound too critical of Walker – he’s only a teenager, and is already one of the best attacking weapons in the league – but it’s extremely unusual to see a coach hook their best attacking weapon (Walker averages almost 2 try involvements and 1.5 line break assists per game) just weeks out from the finals. However, with Walker possessing an unacceptable tackle efficiency of 76% and leaking 17 line breaks in 20 starts (Lachlan Lam and Drew Hutchison have a combined 15 conceded from 38 starts), it’s not hard to see what Robbo’s going for. Which is all a long way of saying that the Roosters absolutely do have the defensive capability to stop Manly’s offense on Friday night. In fact, we’d argue that there’s so little between these sides, there’s every chance that this game comes down to who can earn the most possession and field position. For this reason – and this reason alone – we’re leaning Manly, largely because the Roosters’ handling is so consistently dreadful (they’ve made double-digit errors in all but 4 games this season) that it’s hard to have any faith in them maintaining possession. But please don’t consider this a forgone conclusion, and we’d advising staying well away from Manly at their current $1.30 price (if anything, we’d take the $4 on Sydney). If the “good” Roosters turn up (or, if Manly lob up and wet the bed for a second time), Sydney are absolutely good enough to get home here.
• In contrast, we’re giving the Eels approximately zero chance of winning against the Panthers on Saturday night. No doubt Penrith will have been disappointed by last week’s result, but they should take heart from the fact their attacking VOAs were better than every side that played on the weekend (Melbourne included), while their D once again kept an elite offense completely in check. The reason Penrith lost had nothing to do with bad fundamentals, but rather was just ‘one of those days’ – they created more try-scoring opportunities than you could poke a stick at, only to see the final pass fall tantalisingly out of reach over and over and over again. It’s extraordinarily unusual to see a team make 5 line breaks yet be held to a single try (a try which actually came off a kick, anyway), but them’s the breaks. We’d be far more concerned if they’d failed to crack the Rabbitohs’ defense at all. If Penrith can put 5 breaks through a vastly superior Bunnies defense on just a 47% possession share, we shudder to think what they’re capable of doing to Parramatta – especially if their possession share returns to normal (Penrith have earned 50% or more of the footy in a whopping 19 of 25 matches this season). Last weekend, the Eels got gashed for 4 tries and 4 line breaks by the 3rd-worst offense in the competition, while dominating possession 52-48. This marked their 9th game in a row with a below-average LBCVOA – the longest such streak in the competition (that includes the already-eliminated defensive patsies like Wests and the Cowboys). There’s absolutely no way that this standard of defense will get it done here. The Panthers’ own D has conceded more than 2 tries in a game just 8 times all season, and more than 3 tries only twice. If Parra aren’t likely to get anywhere near 20 points, they simply can not afford to present Penrith with the volume of opportunities that they’ve been giving everyone else. Parramatta got extraordinarily lucky in beating Melbourne three weeks ago, and we suppose that win will give them confidence that they can get it done again here. That hubris will likely be short-lived though, as they learn that simply hoping for wins to be handed to them does not a viable strategy make.

Related NRL News & Posts:

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2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 142/192 (74%) (Last week: 5/8)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Storm
• Roosters
• Panthers
• Eels

Notes

• Over the past week, we’ve been subjected to Sea Eagles fans tying themselves in knots trying to come up with reasons why their team is somehow better than the Storm (SPOILER ALERT: they’re not). Allow us to subject you to just a few. MYTH: With Des Hasler holding a superior head-to-head winning percentage against Craig Bellamy, Hasler knows “the secret” to beating Melbourne. REALITY: If Hasler ever did hold a secret to beating the Storm, he misplaced it some time in 2019. Since then, the Storm have won their last 4 straight against Manly, by an average margin of 18.5 (and FYI, Tom Trbojevic was playing in 3 of those). MYTH: Manly’s offense is so irresistibly good, Melbourne won’t be able to keep up. REALITY: We don’t even know where to start with this one. For a start, the Storm have racked up more points than any other team this year, so we’re sure they’re comfortable in any kind of shootout. Secondly, Manly’s offense has yet to show itself as anything other than Parramatta-esque flat-track bullies. There are 6 teams in the NRL with above-average Defense VOA ratings: Penrith, Melbourne, Souths, Sydney and Canberra (in that order). In 7 matches against these defenses the Eagles average just 13 points-per-game. Now, you might argue that Turbo was missing for the first 3 of those. Sure, let’s eliminate those games then – now what does their points-per-game climb to? 17. Against a Storm side who’ve exceeded that total in 21 of 24 matches this year, we doubt that would be enough. We also doubt they’ll get that many. In Manly’s last 6 matches against the Storm, they’ve never exceeded 18 points, in that game (Round 21 this year), one of their tries came via an intercept, meaning that the Sea Eagles offense hasn’t exceeded 2 tries generated in their past 6 starts against the Storm. Quite frankly, the Storm are so comprehensively better than Manly at every aspect of football, we find the very suggestion that they should be ‘scared’ of the Sea Eagles (or any other nonsense) so staggeringly stupid as to be almost inconceivable. It’s not that we’re saying Manly can’t win this game; but rather that whether they win or lose will be determined by how well Melbourne go. If the Storm are on, the Storm are going to win – and there is absolutely nothing that Manly will be able to do about it. However, there is admittedly no guarantee that the Storm will be “on”. The Storm were dreadful in their Round 19 win over North Queensland; they were even worse in their Round 24 loss to Parramatta. That being said, they were also “off” in their Round 21 clash with Manly (in which the Storm recorded their lowest LBVOA of the season) – and they still won that game by 10 points, showing that even if Melbourne aren’t playing to their highest standard, it’s still no guarantee they’ll beat them. To have any success, Manly need to target replacement winger Isaac Lumelume (who has conceded 2 line breaks in as many starts, compared to Josh Addo-Carr’s 8 from 21), and then just hope for Malbourne to wet the bed. Sure, it’s possible, but it doesn’t feel terribly likely.
• You could almost copy-and-paste the above spiel about Manly and apply it to the Titans – they, too, have made a habit of running up monster scores against NRL minnows (they’ve scored 30+ in 11 matches this season), but lack any sort of return against the competition’s heavyweights. They ultimately played 11 matches against teams who would finish the season in the Top 8, but only managed to win 1 (against far-and-away the worst team in the finals, Newcastle). To be fair, the Titans’ offense has actually held up better than Manly’s against top sides (they put 30 on Souths, 24 on Manly and even managed 20 against the Storm), but unlike the Eagles, the Titans don’t have a defense capable of supporting their high-octane offense. Yes, they’ve scored 30+ a whole bunch, but they’ve also conceded 30+ almost as often, hitting that mark in 9 of 24 matches. And if you’re sitting there staring at the 2021 schedule and thinking “well, gee – they got within 1 point of beating the Roosters the last time they met”, we might remind you that 18 of the Titans’ 34 points that day came while the Roosters had a player in the sin bin. Prior to that point, the Roosters were winning 30-10. Added to the team Sydney used that day will a few pretty handy players (guys like James Tedesco, Siosiua Taukeiaho, Sam Verrills and Victor Radley, among others), and they additionally bring a wealth of big game experience with them. We’ve been banging the Roosters’ drum all season, and remain of the view that they’re the dark horses of the competition.
• Last week’s game notwithstanding (in which Souths’ NSW Cup somehow got gifted a win by St George-Illawarra, despite turning in a putrid 1 line break effort), the Rabbitohs come into the finals in arguably the best form of any of the competition’s heavyweights. They’ve won 13 of their past 14 matches, and are just two weeks removed from an emphatic 54-12 win over the Roosters (the game otherwise known as ‘Facegate’ – in which Joey Manu’s face came to look like it had repeatedly slammed in a garden gate). This should install a degree of confidence in the Bunnies, were it not one, tiny detail – that one loss came against this week’s opponent, the Panthers. Indeed, the same could have been said about Souths’ form coming into that game – they came in off a 10-game winning streak and were two weeks removed from a 40-12 hammering of Parramatta – yet that night they took a death-by-a-thousand-cuts from the boot of Nathan Cleary, as a clunky-looking Penrith side ground their way to a second 13+ victory over South Sydney this year (the first was a 56-12 humiliation). Comparing the team lists from that clash, the Panthers will be significantly bolstered by the return of rep stars Brian To’o and James Fisher-Harris, while the Rabbitohs find themselves missing their best player, Latrell Mitchell (for his role as the gate-slammer in the Manu incident). Even without including last weekend’s game (in which they were literally without all their good players), the drop-off in Souths’ LBVOA from 48.30% when Mitchell plays (which extrapolated over a full season would place them 1st in the league) to a sans-Latrell average of -16.38% is eye-watering. Worse, is the fact that in both the Rabbitohs’ 13+ defeats at the hands of Penrith, Latrell was playing. Much like Melbourne, who only now are getting to trot out a near full-strength side, this Panthers side looks as good as any they’ve named in months. Their returning players have admittedly looked rusty as they’ve trickled back into the team, but our expectation is that they’re right about to peak at exactly the right time. Given how much better Penrith were compared to Souths already, we’re left feeling pretty confident in the Pennies.
• The final match of the week is a bit of a funny one, in that we’d fancy both sides are thrilled with their drawn opponents. The Eels overtly tanked their way out of the Top 4, and have been rewarded with a game against the worst side in the Top 8. Meanwhile, the Knights – having stumbled their way into 7th spot with a 50% win rate – have been rewarded with a match against far-and-away the worst side in the Top 6. From both sides’ perspective, we’d fancy it doesn’t get any better than this. And yet, somebody still needs to lose. On the surface, the two sides couldn’t have ended the season any more differently, with the Knights final seven matches yielding 5 wins and 2 losses, compared to the Eels’ 5 losses and 2 wins. However, looking under the hood, the two sides really weren’t all that different. They had almost identically dismal LBVOAs (-37.18% for Newcastle vs -38.00% for Parra), which suggests that the Knights’ superior tries-per-game (they scored exactly 1 extra meat pie each week) came more via the comparatively lower quality that Newcastle were facing, rather than any greater enterprise from their attack. Newcastle had the slightly superior RMVOA (-2.44% v -4.06%), but this was more than counter-balanced by Parra’s more impressive RMCVOA (-1.28% v 4.69%). With both sides’ recent form being mirror-images of each other, the question becomes about who’s more likely to improve. If Reagan Campbell-Gillard comes back (he’s been named, but is apparently facing a fitness test) it will make a world of difference to Parramatta’s go-forward, with the Eels RMVOA dropping from 4.18% (2nd in the league) to -5.07% when he’s missing (last). Additionally, we’ve made the point previously that the Eels’ offense has consistently underperformed against elite defenses relative to the quality of the defense. That is, when the Eels are playing top defenses, they play even worse than can be naturally expected due to the higher quality of opponent. With Parramatta having played 6 of their last 7 games against above-average defenses, it should come as no surprise then that their LBVOA has been plummeting through the floor – this isn’t a drop in form, so much as a reflection of how little their offensive structure troubles good defenses. Even when people (mistakenly) thought Parra were good, they were interspersing 40-point drubbings of also-rans with LBVOAs like -39.78% against Melbourne, -64.34% against Sydney, -48.64% against Souths and -68.25% against Penrith. This is bad news for Parramatta when it comes time to play anybody good; but it’s great news this week, because Newcastle’s defense is not. Parramatta already have a 40-4 thumping of the Knights under their belt, and despite their recent success, it’s hard to argue that Newcastle’s defense is significantly improved. The Knights are coming in after conceding 35 points to a Kotoni Staggs-less Brisbane side in a losing effort, and gave up 20+ in their recent wins over the Broncos and Raiders – both sides whose offenses rank lower than that of the Eels. On paper, you have to give the Knights a decent shot – everything about that side looks like it should be an attacking powerhouse. But at some point, you simply have to accept that it just isn’t; and though we all love to have a giggle at the perpetual struggles of Parramatta, they actually do have the runs on the board to suggest they can comfortably handle a side who, frankly, are lucky to still be alive in the competition.

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2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 137/184 (74%) (Last week: 5/8)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Roosters
• Sharks
• Panthers
• Broncos
• Sea Eagles
• Dragons
• Titans
• Tigers

Notes

• As one of the most predictable seasons of NRL draws to a close, we finish with the most peculiar round of the tipping season. With many of the playoffs spots settled, we’re left to sift through the mixed bag of team lists thrown up by teams who are either openly tanking, or just treading water until Mad Monday. The opening game of the week, however, has no such problems. The Raiders enter this match knowing that it’s win-or-go-home, and even with a win, there’s no guarantee they play on next week. On the Roosters‘ side of the ledger, they’ve lost star centre Joey Manu to decapitation, but have a pretty handy replacement on deck in Josh Morris, who is joined by Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Angus Crichton, Adam Keighran and Matt Ikuvalu in returning to the Roosters’ side. While the loss of Manu is significant, you’d have to think that on balance the Roosters are in fact stronger on paper now, and they were already a fair bit better than Canberra. The Raiders’ recent uptick in fortune has come on the back of a significant lift in defensive performance. Through the opening 16 rounds (in which the Raiders won just 5 games), they gave up 4.5 tries a game – a volume that they simply don’t have the attacking capacity to run down. But from their Round 17 win over Manly onward, Canberra have leaked just 3.1 tries per game, and seen their win rate jump to 5/8. The explanation is quite straightforward – they’ve managed to improve their LBCVOA from 5.32% (which would place them 8th in the league) to -27.32% (3rd). There’s probably a few reasons for that: disowning Curtis Scott is a big one (he personally accounted for 1.1 line breaks per game, and hasn’t been sighted since Round 12); the emergence of Matthew Timoko is another (he’s effectively taken Scott’s place, while conceding less than 0.5 line breaks per game). What’s of most interest to us though is that there hasn’t been a similar improvement on offense; in fact, in some ways they’re slightly worse. Both their RMVOA and LBVOA are actually slightly down, but their total volumes have held steady thanks to moderately better possession shares (their average possession has lifted from 48% to 50% over the same time frame), earned via dramatically improved handling (they’ve dropped their error rate by almost 2 errors per game). This paints a picture of a side playing a more conservative attacking style, in order to win possession and grind out victories with their defense. While this is generally a perfect strategy for this Raiders team (and Ricky Stuart deserves credit for reinventing his side to be more competitive), we’re not convinced it’s a good strategy for beating the Roosters. The problem with Sydney is that’s very difficult to beat them with defense – they’ve been held to less than 20 points in a game just 8 times in 23 matches this season, with 6 of the 8 coming from elite defenses (while the Raiders are 6th, we’d place them in a tier below Penrith, Melbourne, Souths and Manly). This means that the overwhelming majority of the time, you’re going to need to score 4 or more tries to do it. It’s not impossible – Parramatta dropped 5 on them in Round 9; Brisbane squeezed out 6 in Round 11 – but it’s a big challenge for a Raiders team who last week scored more than 4 tries in a game for just the 6th time all year. Though we have some reservations about Trent Robinson’s decision to bench his team leader in try involvements and line break assists (Sam Walker) in the same week he’s lost his best strike weapon, it looks like a move intended to improve Sydney’s defense and ensure they don’t give up any soft tries to a pretty limited Raiders attack. With this in mind, we think they’ll hold Canberra to 3 tries or less, and that their offense will remain good enough to outscore that.
• The 6pm Friday game looks like the most strangely priced game we can remember, with the Sharks still out over $3, despite facing a Storm side resting at least 8 regular starters. We can only assume that the lack of support for Cronulla is due to the Storm’s success during the Origin period. In Round 13, for example, they rolled the Titans without Ryan Papenhuyzen, Josh Addo-Carr, Cameron Munster, Christian Welch, Felise Kaufusi and Harry Grant; in Round 14 they knocked over the Warriors without Papenhuyzen, Welch, George Jennings, Kenny Bromwich and Nelson Asofa-Solomona. So yes, they have won with under-strength squads before. But you need to at least acknowledge that the current Sharks unit is playing better than both the Titans and Warriors (indeed, the week before the Titans’ 6-point loss to Melbourne, the Sharks thumped them 38-10), and that despite winning, the Storm were a long way below their best in those games. In terms of LBVOA, those two games accounted for Melbourne’s 3rd-worst and 5th-worst performances of the season (and fair enough, given the absences), but perhaps of most interest to us is that without a few key forwards, they turned in their two worst performances of the year for RMVOA, which resulted in their worst and 3rd-worst results for net yardage. If their go-forward came to a grinding halt without a couple of key forwards then, we can only imagine what will happen here without Welch, Kaufusi, both Bromwiches and Tom Eisenhuth. This is hugely significant for Cronulla, due to the typical inefficiency of their defense. When the Sharks lose the yardage battle, they concede an unwinnable 5.1 tries per game, as they consistently struggle to defend their line. But in games where they win the yardage battle – resulting in more of the game being played further away from their own try-line – that almost halves to just 2.8. In this context, the prospect of the Sharks being able to get over the top of the Storm (as ridiculous as this proposition would be any other week) looms large, as it could reduce their defensive exposure to an attack that will likely be a long way below it’s typically high standards, anyway. The question then becomes: how many can the Sharks put on? With Matt Moylan healthy and bolstering an offense that managed to put 5 line breaks past a virtually full-strength Storm side back in Round 8 (albeit in a losing effort), we like their chances. We’ve already seen Cronulla knock over a badly weakened elite unit earlier in the season when they rolled Penrith 19-18 during Origin, and we think they’re playing better footy now than they were then. We wouldn’t call it a slam dunk, but with the Sharkies playing for their footballing lives, we can’t believe how quickly they’ve been written off.
• The difference in approach to this round from the Panthers and Eels couldn’t be more stark. On one hand, you have the Panthers – a side who’ve lost just 3 matches all year, but have decided they’re not satisfied with the standard they’ve been playing at, and so will use the final round as a tune-up for their top squad. But on the other hand you have Parramatta – a side coming off a two-month window in which they’ve won just 3 games, lost 3 by 20+, and whose last start saw them get outgained by over 80m despite having 52% of the footy, while getting outperformed for line breaks (8 to 6) and tackle breaks (36 to 28)… yet who’ve apparently decided “enough, fellas – we can’t possibly get any better than this!”. No, rather than continue to improve (because despite getting comprehensively outperformed across just about every relevant statistical category, their last start was admittedly an improvement), they’ve chosen to trot out a side missing just about every regular first grader in their Top 30. We don’t necessarily think this is why they’ll lose (to be fair, their regular first graders aren’t particularly good anyway – perhaps the backups will be an improvement?), but we do think it speaks volumes about the difference in attitudes between the two sides. Expect the Panthers to put the wringers through Parramatta in the first half, before sitting their key players (Nathan Cleary, Api Koroisau etc) for most of the second stanza (while still running up the score).
• It’s finally happened – we’ve given up on expecting the Knights‘ offense to suddenly click into gear. Newcastle have now had their first-choice spine together for three weeks, and through that period they’ve served up a dismal LBVOA of -56.13%, which would put them dead last, even behind Canterbury. A big part of that can be attributed to the loss of Lachlan Fitzgibbon, the Knights’ most dynamic edge forward who still leads their pack for line breaks despite having played just 10 games all season. Unfortunately, Fitzgibbon isn’t coming back, so attacking performances such as their past three – in which they’ve averaged under 18 points-per-game, despite facing the defenses ranked 12th, 13th and 15th – are likely to remain the norm. And though we can’t recall the last time we tipped the Broncos, the fact of the matter is that that likely isn’t enough to beat Brisbane. Though the Broncos may have only won 3 of their past 8 games, they managed to score 20+ in 6 of those, with the exceptions being against Penrith (the best D in the league) and last week against Cronulla, where they managed 16 without their own star second-rower Jordan Riki. Unlike Newcastle though, the Broncos get Riki and his nasty line-running back this week, bolstering an offense that’s been generally better than Newie’s, anyway. Add in the Knights’ decision to rest hooker Jayden Brailey, back-rower Mitch Barnett and winger Hymel Hunt (whose absence sees the defensively-challenged Starford To’a return to the side) and we firmly prefer the Broncos here, potentially by 12+.
• We were somewhat surprised to see the Sea Eagles name a full-strength side for this relatively-meaningless clash with the Cowboys, but like Ivan Cleary, we can understand if Des Hasler wasn’t satisfied with the Eagles’ performance last weekend against Canterbury. While the Eagles were able to rescue their attacking numbers with a late rush of points, their defensive numbers were absolutely appalling. For a likely Top-4 side to give up 5 line breaks to the worst offense in football two weeks out from the finals is disappointing enough, but to do it while dominating possession 57-43 is downright embarrassing. This was far-and-away Manly’s worst defensive performance of the year, and that includes their miserable opening month of the season in which they routinely leaked 30+. In this context, it makes sense for Des to want to tune up that D, which spells really bad news for the Cowboys. The Cows’ own D is so superbly bad that Manly can be considered a virtual lock to score 30+, while a renewed focus on defensive intensity has the potential to see North Queensland’s offense completely shut down. Taken together, we’re expecting the Eagles to warm up for the finals by handing out a good old-fashioned butt-kicking.
• Like Melbourne, the Rabbitohs have opted to rest the bulk of their squad for this inconsequential game against the Dragons. Unlike the Storm, though, we don’t have any previous examples of how they perform without such a huge swathe of stars. Souths have been fortunate enough to get through most of the season with an unusually clean bill of health, and as a result, the closest we’ve seen to a depleted Souths side was in Round 17 when they thumped North Queensland without Latrell Mitchell, Dane Gagai, Damien Cook, Jai Arrow and Cameron Murray. Yes, they did that pretty comfortably. But here, they’ll also be without Adam Reynolds, Cody Walker, Alex Johnston, Tom Burgess and Liam Knight. That’s an enormous loss of talent, and yet somehow, they remain the bookies’ favourites at time of writing. Sure, the Dragons are rubbish (good teams don’t lose 7-in-a-row) and are without their own best attacking players in Matt Dufty, Zac Lomax and Ben Hunt. But it seems like to a stretch to call them underdogs here. In 6 starts without Latrell this year, the Rabbitohs’ LBVOA dropped from their season-average of 31.09% to -17.71%. That difference is enormous, and should only be more significant given that 7 of the team’s top 8 players in line break assists will be watching from the sideline (the exception, Benji Marshall, is 4th on the team). For comparison, since losing Hunt 4 weeks ago, the Dragons have exceeded -17.71% twice, and never dropped lower than -22.42%. This suggests that at absolute worst, the Dragons should be able to hang with this Souths side when it comes to generating scoring opportunities, and with almost the entire Souths forward back sitting out, you’d fancy the Dragons should enjoy better field position than anything they’ve had to work with in the past month. We wouldn’t say we’re super confident – if anyone knows how to navigate their way to a victory with a piecemeal squad, it’s Wayne Bennett – but we just don’t think you can make a rational argument not to tip St George-Illawarra. They can’t possibly be that bad they could lose to the Bunnies’ NSW Cup team. Can they? No, surely not. We hope.
• Then we come to the Titans and Warriors. Last weekend, the Titans’ turned in an effort that looked remarkably like the Warriors – they turned in a flawless performance in which they led for over 70 minutes, made just 6 errors, dominated possession, outgained Newcastle by almost 250m, made 5 line breaks to 2… and then somehow choked it away at the finish. This butchering of a well-earned win was incredibly Warrioresque, especially when you consider the fact that a win could have lifted the Titans into the Top 8. Instead, they’ll turn up here needing a win to make the 8… that is, unless they don’t. You see, should either the Raiders or Sharks win earlier in the weekend, the Titans will fall agonisingly short of a finals berth, irrespective of how they go here. Which makes this game extremely difficult to predict. These sides match up quite evenly, with our model projecting the Titans as winners by a little over half a try (so, essentially a coin-flip). Should the Raiders and Sharks lose, we’d feel fairly confident tipping the Titans, on the expectation that the difference in motivation between a side playing for their season and a side waiting to go home should be significant, and should see the Titans over-perform their projection while the Warriors potentially under-perform. But what happens if the Raiders or the Sharks win? Having spent all week building up to a do-or-die clash that then doesn’t eventuate, what impact could that have on the Titans’ attitude when they then have to play a day and a dead rubber 36 hours later? It’s worth considering, and would have us all over the Warriors at their current price ($3.75), particularly with the game projecting so closely in the first place. In the meantime though, we’ll stick with our model that gives a narrow edge to the Gold Coast. But if you’re in a tipping comp and find yourself needing to chase a tip in the final week, this could be the place to look – especially if the Titans get knocked out on Thursday or Friday.
• And how will the 2021 season end? Not with a bang, but with a whimper. Sunday afternoon will see the season wrap up with a clash between two of the worst sides in the competition, the Tigers and Bulldogs. Though both sides gave a reasonable account of themselves last week, that still doesn’t have us particularly keen to see either of these sides one more time. In a match-up between the worst offense in football (Canterbury) and the worst defense in football (Wests), it’s hard to see this being anything other than a painful viewing experience, filled with mistimed passes, awkward running lines and comically bad defensive reads, all punctuated by a selection of park footy-level handling errors. For the record, we’ve got the Tigers here by about 4 tries to 3; but as we’re sure you can tell, we’re about as excited to watch it as you are.

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