The Obstruction Rule

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 145/196 (74%) (Last week: 3/4)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Sea Eagles
• Panthers

Notes

• You can’t say we didn’t warn you. Last week, we went into some detail explaining how the Sea Eagles‘ gaudy attacking numbers have come exclusively against sub-par defenses, highlighting how in 7 starts against above average defenses, the Eagles have yet to score more than 3 tries in a match and average a pedestrian 13 points-per-game. You can now stretch that out to 8 starts after Melbourne held Manly to just 2 tries and 12 points in a Week One finals walkover. The bad news for Manly fans is that this week’s opponents, the Roosters, are also an above-average D. The good news, though (if you want to call it that) is that the Roosters’ D is also incredibly inconsistent. In 2021, the Roosters have turned in 7 shockingly bad defensive clunkers (against Wests, NQ – twice – Brisbane, Gold Coast, St George-Illawarra and Souths). In these 7 starts, the Roosters posted numbers that would place them firmly among the Bottom 4, conceding 4.5 tries per game, with a LBCVOA of 24.83% (which would be 2nd-last in the NRL extrapolated across the season), a RMCVOA of 3.89% (4th-last) and a TBCVOA of 27.70% (dead last). Funnily enough, they actually won 5 of those games, but that’s not the point. Rather, we want to highlight how good they are when they’re do turn up to play. You see, across the remaining 18 games – a selection of games that interestingly includes 4 games against Top-4 ranked offenses, including Manly – they average just 3 tries conceded per game, with a LBCVOA of -33.41% (2nd), a RMCVOA of -3.70% (5th) and a TBCVOA of -0.54% (8th). What we’re painting here is a picture of a Jekyll-and-Hyde defense, that roughly 30% of the time turns up and embarrasses itself (including against some pretty mediocre football teams), but the other 70% of the season has been gold-plated elite (despite facing some of the very best footy teams). It’s fair to assume that Trent Robinson is aware of this fact, and it’s also fair to say that he considers Sam Walker’s weak defense a significant contributor. Through Weeks 10-14, the Roosters turned in 3 of their stinkers, with the only exception – their 44-16 win over the Raiders – coming in the one game Walker didn’t play. And since their recent shellacking at the hands of South Sydney, Walker has found himself relegated to the bench. We don’t want to sound too critical of Walker – he’s only a teenager, and is already one of the best attacking weapons in the league – but it’s extremely unusual to see a coach hook their best attacking weapon (Walker averages almost 2 try involvements and 1.5 line break assists per game) just weeks out from the finals. However, with Walker possessing an unacceptable tackle efficiency of 76% and leaking 17 line breaks in 20 starts (Lachlan Lam and Drew Hutchison have a combined 15 conceded from 38 starts), it’s not hard to see what Robbo’s going for. Which is all a long way of saying that the Roosters absolutely do have the defensive capability to stop Manly’s offense on Friday night. In fact, we’d argue that there’s so little between these sides, there’s every chance that this game comes down to who can earn the most possession and field position. For this reason – and this reason alone – we’re leaning Manly, largely because the Roosters’ handling is so consistently dreadful (they’ve made double-digit errors in all but 4 games this season) that it’s hard to have any faith in them maintaining possession. But please don’t consider this a forgone conclusion, and we’d advising staying well away from Manly at their current $1.30 price (if anything, we’d take the $4 on Sydney). If the “good” Roosters turn up (or, if Manly lob up and wet the bed for a second time), Sydney are absolutely good enough to get home here.
• In contrast, we’re giving the Eels approximately zero chance of winning against the Panthers on Saturday night. No doubt Penrith will have been disappointed by last week’s result, but they should take heart from the fact their attacking VOAs were better than every side that played on the weekend (Melbourne included), while their D once again kept an elite offense completely in check. The reason Penrith lost had nothing to do with bad fundamentals, but rather was just ‘one of those days’ – they created more try-scoring opportunities than you could poke a stick at, only to see the final pass fall tantalisingly out of reach over and over and over again. It’s extraordinarily unusual to see a team make 5 line breaks yet be held to a single try (a try which actually came off a kick, anyway), but them’s the breaks. We’d be far more concerned if they’d failed to crack the Rabbitohs’ defense at all. If Penrith can put 5 breaks through a vastly superior Bunnies defense on just a 47% possession share, we shudder to think what they’re capable of doing to Parramatta – especially if their possession share returns to normal (Penrith have earned 50% or more of the footy in a whopping 19 of 25 matches this season). Last weekend, the Eels got gashed for 4 tries and 4 line breaks by the 3rd-worst offense in the competition, while dominating possession 52-48. This marked their 9th game in a row with a below-average LBCVOA – the longest such streak in the competition (that includes the already-eliminated defensive patsies like Wests and the Cowboys). There’s absolutely no way that this standard of defense will get it done here. The Panthers’ own D has conceded more than 2 tries in a game just 8 times all season, and more than 3 tries only twice. If Parra aren’t likely to get anywhere near 20 points, they simply can not afford to present Penrith with the volume of opportunities that they’ve been giving everyone else. Parramatta got extraordinarily lucky in beating Melbourne three weeks ago, and we suppose that win will give them confidence that they can get it done again here. That hubris will likely be short-lived though, as they learn that simply hoping for wins to be handed to them does not a viable strategy make.

Related NRL News & Posts:

• No Related NRL News

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 142/192 (74%) (Last week: 5/8)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Storm
• Roosters
• Panthers
• Eels

Notes

• Over the past week, we’ve been subjected to Sea Eagles fans tying themselves in knots trying to come up with reasons why their team is somehow better than the Storm (SPOILER ALERT: they’re not). Allow us to subject you to just a few. MYTH: With Des Hasler holding a superior head-to-head winning percentage against Craig Bellamy, Hasler knows “the secret” to beating Melbourne. REALITY: If Hasler ever did hold a secret to beating the Storm, he misplaced it some time in 2019. Since then, the Storm have won their last 4 straight against Manly, by an average margin of 18.5 (and FYI, Tom Trbojevic was playing in 3 of those). MYTH: Manly’s offense is so irresistibly good, Melbourne won’t be able to keep up. REALITY: We don’t even know where to start with this one. For a start, the Storm have racked up more points than any other team this year, so we’re sure they’re comfortable in any kind of shootout. Secondly, Manly’s offense has yet to show itself as anything other than Parramatta-esque flat-track bullies. There are 6 teams in the NRL with above-average Defense VOA ratings: Penrith, Melbourne, Souths, Sydney and Canberra (in that order). In 7 matches against these defenses the Eagles average just 13 points-per-game. Now, you might argue that Turbo was missing for the first 3 of those. Sure, let’s eliminate those games then – now what does their points-per-game climb to? 17. Against a Storm side who’ve exceeded that total in 21 of 24 matches this year, we doubt that would be enough. We also doubt they’ll get that many. In Manly’s last 6 matches against the Storm, they’ve never exceeded 18 points, in that game (Round 21 this year), one of their tries came via an intercept, meaning that the Sea Eagles offense hasn’t exceeded 2 tries generated in their past 6 starts against the Storm. Quite frankly, the Storm are so comprehensively better than Manly at every aspect of football, we find the very suggestion that they should be ‘scared’ of the Sea Eagles (or any other nonsense) so staggeringly stupid as to be almost inconceivable. It’s not that we’re saying Manly can’t win this game; but rather that whether they win or lose will be determined by how well Melbourne go. If the Storm are on, the Storm are going to win – and there is absolutely nothing that Manly will be able to do about it. However, there is admittedly no guarantee that the Storm will be “on”. The Storm were dreadful in their Round 19 win over North Queensland; they were even worse in their Round 24 loss to Parramatta. That being said, they were also “off” in their Round 21 clash with Manly (in which the Storm recorded their lowest LBVOA of the season) – and they still won that game by 10 points, showing that even if Melbourne aren’t playing to their highest standard, it’s still no guarantee they’ll beat them. To have any success, Manly need to target replacement winger Isaac Lumelume (who has conceded 2 line breaks in as many starts, compared to Josh Addo-Carr’s 8 from 21), and then just hope for Malbourne to wet the bed. Sure, it’s possible, but it doesn’t feel terribly likely.
• You could almost copy-and-paste the above spiel about Manly and apply it to the Titans – they, too, have made a habit of running up monster scores against NRL minnows (they’ve scored 30+ in 11 matches this season), but lack any sort of return against the competition’s heavyweights. They ultimately played 11 matches against teams who would finish the season in the Top 8, but only managed to win 1 (against far-and-away the worst team in the finals, Newcastle). To be fair, the Titans’ offense has actually held up better than Manly’s against top sides (they put 30 on Souths, 24 on Manly and even managed 20 against the Storm), but unlike the Eagles, the Titans don’t have a defense capable of supporting their high-octane offense. Yes, they’ve scored 30+ a whole bunch, but they’ve also conceded 30+ almost as often, hitting that mark in 9 of 24 matches. And if you’re sitting there staring at the 2021 schedule and thinking “well, gee – they got within 1 point of beating the Roosters the last time they met”, we might remind you that 18 of the Titans’ 34 points that day came while the Roosters had a player in the sin bin. Prior to that point, the Roosters were winning 30-10. Added to the team Sydney used that day will a few pretty handy players (guys like James Tedesco, Siosiua Taukeiaho, Sam Verrills and Victor Radley, among others), and they additionally bring a wealth of big game experience with them. We’ve been banging the Roosters’ drum all season, and remain of the view that they’re the dark horses of the competition.
• Last week’s game notwithstanding (in which Souths’ NSW Cup somehow got gifted a win by St George-Illawarra, despite turning in a putrid 1 line break effort), the Rabbitohs come into the finals in arguably the best form of any of the competition’s heavyweights. They’ve won 13 of their past 14 matches, and are just two weeks removed from an emphatic 54-12 win over the Roosters (the game otherwise known as ‘Facegate’ – in which Joey Manu’s face came to look like it had repeatedly slammed in a garden gate). This should install a degree of confidence in the Bunnies, were it not one, tiny detail – that one loss came against this week’s opponent, the Panthers. Indeed, the same could have been said about Souths’ form coming into that game – they came in off a 10-game winning streak and were two weeks removed from a 40-12 hammering of Parramatta – yet that night they took a death-by-a-thousand-cuts from the boot of Nathan Cleary, as a clunky-looking Penrith side ground their way to a second 13+ victory over South Sydney this year (the first was a 56-12 humiliation). Comparing the team lists from that clash, the Panthers will be significantly bolstered by the return of rep stars Brian To’o and James Fisher-Harris, while the Rabbitohs find themselves missing their best player, Latrell Mitchell (for his role as the gate-slammer in the Manu incident). Even without including last weekend’s game (in which they were literally without all their good players), the drop-off in Souths’ LBVOA from 48.30% when Mitchell plays (which extrapolated over a full season would place them 1st in the league) to a sans-Latrell average of -16.38% is eye-watering. Worse, is the fact that in both the Rabbitohs’ 13+ defeats at the hands of Penrith, Latrell was playing. Much like Melbourne, who only now are getting to trot out a near full-strength side, this Panthers side looks as good as any they’ve named in months. Their returning players have admittedly looked rusty as they’ve trickled back into the team, but our expectation is that they’re right about to peak at exactly the right time. Given how much better Penrith were compared to Souths already, we’re left feeling pretty confident in the Pennies.
• The final match of the week is a bit of a funny one, in that we’d fancy both sides are thrilled with their drawn opponents. The Eels overtly tanked their way out of the Top 4, and have been rewarded with a game against the worst side in the Top 8. Meanwhile, the Knights – having stumbled their way into 7th spot with a 50% win rate – have been rewarded with a match against far-and-away the worst side in the Top 6. From both sides’ perspective, we’d fancy it doesn’t get any better than this. And yet, somebody still needs to lose. On the surface, the two sides couldn’t have ended the season any more differently, with the Knights final seven matches yielding 5 wins and 2 losses, compared to the Eels’ 5 losses and 2 wins. However, looking under the hood, the two sides really weren’t all that different. They had almost identically dismal LBVOAs (-37.18% for Newcastle vs -38.00% for Parra), which suggests that the Knights’ superior tries-per-game (they scored exactly 1 extra meat pie each week) came more via the comparatively lower quality that Newcastle were facing, rather than any greater enterprise from their attack. Newcastle had the slightly superior RMVOA (-2.44% v -4.06%), but this was more than counter-balanced by Parra’s more impressive RMCVOA (-1.28% v 4.69%). With both sides’ recent form being mirror-images of each other, the question becomes about who’s more likely to improve. If Reagan Campbell-Gillard comes back (he’s been named, but is apparently facing a fitness test) it will make a world of difference to Parramatta’s go-forward, with the Eels RMVOA dropping from 4.18% (2nd in the league) to -5.07% when he’s missing (last). Additionally, we’ve made the point previously that the Eels’ offense has consistently underperformed against elite defenses relative to the quality of the defense. That is, when the Eels are playing top defenses, they play even worse than can be naturally expected due to the higher quality of opponent. With Parramatta having played 6 of their last 7 games against above-average defenses, it should come as no surprise then that their LBVOA has been plummeting through the floor – this isn’t a drop in form, so much as a reflection of how little their offensive structure troubles good defenses. Even when people (mistakenly) thought Parra were good, they were interspersing 40-point drubbings of also-rans with LBVOAs like -39.78% against Melbourne, -64.34% against Sydney, -48.64% against Souths and -68.25% against Penrith. This is bad news for Parramatta when it comes time to play anybody good; but it’s great news this week, because Newcastle’s defense is not. Parramatta already have a 40-4 thumping of the Knights under their belt, and despite their recent success, it’s hard to argue that Newcastle’s defense is significantly improved. The Knights are coming in after conceding 35 points to a Kotoni Staggs-less Brisbane side in a losing effort, and gave up 20+ in their recent wins over the Broncos and Raiders – both sides whose offenses rank lower than that of the Eels. On paper, you have to give the Knights a decent shot – everything about that side looks like it should be an attacking powerhouse. But at some point, you simply have to accept that it just isn’t; and though we all love to have a giggle at the perpetual struggles of Parramatta, they actually do have the runs on the board to suggest they can comfortably handle a side who, frankly, are lucky to still be alive in the competition.

Related NRL News & Posts:

• No Related NRL News

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 137/184 (74%) (Last week: 5/8)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Roosters
• Sharks
• Panthers
• Broncos
• Sea Eagles
• Dragons
• Titans
• Tigers

Notes

• As one of the most predictable seasons of NRL draws to a close, we finish with the most peculiar round of the tipping season. With many of the playoffs spots settled, we’re left to sift through the mixed bag of team lists thrown up by teams who are either openly tanking, or just treading water until Mad Monday. The opening game of the week, however, has no such problems. The Raiders enter this match knowing that it’s win-or-go-home, and even with a win, there’s no guarantee they play on next week. On the Roosters‘ side of the ledger, they’ve lost star centre Joey Manu to decapitation, but have a pretty handy replacement on deck in Josh Morris, who is joined by Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Angus Crichton, Adam Keighran and Matt Ikuvalu in returning to the Roosters’ side. While the loss of Manu is significant, you’d have to think that on balance the Roosters are in fact stronger on paper now, and they were already a fair bit better than Canberra. The Raiders’ recent uptick in fortune has come on the back of a significant lift in defensive performance. Through the opening 16 rounds (in which the Raiders won just 5 games), they gave up 4.5 tries a game – a volume that they simply don’t have the attacking capacity to run down. But from their Round 17 win over Manly onward, Canberra have leaked just 3.1 tries per game, and seen their win rate jump to 5/8. The explanation is quite straightforward – they’ve managed to improve their LBCVOA from 5.32% (which would place them 8th in the league) to -27.32% (3rd). There’s probably a few reasons for that: disowning Curtis Scott is a big one (he personally accounted for 1.1 line breaks per game, and hasn’t been sighted since Round 12); the emergence of Matthew Timoko is another (he’s effectively taken Scott’s place, while conceding less than 0.5 line breaks per game). What’s of most interest to us though is that there hasn’t been a similar improvement on offense; in fact, in some ways they’re slightly worse. Both their RMVOA and LBVOA are actually slightly down, but their total volumes have held steady thanks to moderately better possession shares (their average possession has lifted from 48% to 50% over the same time frame), earned via dramatically improved handling (they’ve dropped their error rate by almost 2 errors per game). This paints a picture of a side playing a more conservative attacking style, in order to win possession and grind out victories with their defense. While this is generally a perfect strategy for this Raiders team (and Ricky Stuart deserves credit for reinventing his side to be more competitive), we’re not convinced it’s a good strategy for beating the Roosters. The problem with Sydney is that’s very difficult to beat them with defense – they’ve been held to less than 20 points in a game just 8 times in 23 matches this season, with 6 of the 8 coming from elite defenses (while the Raiders are 6th, we’d place them in a tier below Penrith, Melbourne, Souths and Manly). This means that the overwhelming majority of the time, you’re going to need to score 4 or more tries to do it. It’s not impossible – Parramatta dropped 5 on them in Round 9; Brisbane squeezed out 6 in Round 11 – but it’s a big challenge for a Raiders team who last week scored more than 4 tries in a game for just the 6th time all year. Though we have some reservations about Trent Robinson’s decision to bench his team leader in try involvements and line break assists (Sam Walker) in the same week he’s lost his best strike weapon, it looks like a move intended to improve Sydney’s defense and ensure they don’t give up any soft tries to a pretty limited Raiders attack. With this in mind, we think they’ll hold Canberra to 3 tries or less, and that their offense will remain good enough to outscore that.
• The 6pm Friday game looks like the most strangely priced game we can remember, with the Sharks still out over $3, despite facing a Storm side resting at least 8 regular starters. We can only assume that the lack of support for Cronulla is due to the Storm’s success during the Origin period. In Round 13, for example, they rolled the Titans without Ryan Papenhuyzen, Josh Addo-Carr, Cameron Munster, Christian Welch, Felise Kaufusi and Harry Grant; in Round 14 they knocked over the Warriors without Papenhuyzen, Welch, George Jennings, Kenny Bromwich and Nelson Asofa-Solomona. So yes, they have won with under-strength squads before. But you need to at least acknowledge that the current Sharks unit is playing better than both the Titans and Warriors (indeed, the week before the Titans’ 6-point loss to Melbourne, the Sharks thumped them 38-10), and that despite winning, the Storm were a long way below their best in those games. In terms of LBVOA, those two games accounted for Melbourne’s 3rd-worst and 5th-worst performances of the season (and fair enough, given the absences), but perhaps of most interest to us is that without a few key forwards, they turned in their two worst performances of the year for RMVOA, which resulted in their worst and 3rd-worst results for net yardage. If their go-forward came to a grinding halt without a couple of key forwards then, we can only imagine what will happen here without Welch, Kaufusi, both Bromwiches and Tom Eisenhuth. This is hugely significant for Cronulla, due to the typical inefficiency of their defense. When the Sharks lose the yardage battle, they concede an unwinnable 5.1 tries per game, as they consistently struggle to defend their line. But in games where they win the yardage battle – resulting in more of the game being played further away from their own try-line – that almost halves to just 2.8. In this context, the prospect of the Sharks being able to get over the top of the Storm (as ridiculous as this proposition would be any other week) looms large, as it could reduce their defensive exposure to an attack that will likely be a long way below it’s typically high standards, anyway. The question then becomes: how many can the Sharks put on? With Matt Moylan healthy and bolstering an offense that managed to put 5 line breaks past a virtually full-strength Storm side back in Round 8 (albeit in a losing effort), we like their chances. We’ve already seen Cronulla knock over a badly weakened elite unit earlier in the season when they rolled Penrith 19-18 during Origin, and we think they’re playing better footy now than they were then. We wouldn’t call it a slam dunk, but with the Sharkies playing for their footballing lives, we can’t believe how quickly they’ve been written off.
• The difference in approach to this round from the Panthers and Eels couldn’t be more stark. On one hand, you have the Panthers – a side who’ve lost just 3 matches all year, but have decided they’re not satisfied with the standard they’ve been playing at, and so will use the final round as a tune-up for their top squad. But on the other hand you have Parramatta – a side coming off a two-month window in which they’ve won just 3 games, lost 3 by 20+, and whose last start saw them get outgained by over 80m despite having 52% of the footy, while getting outperformed for line breaks (8 to 6) and tackle breaks (36 to 28)… yet who’ve apparently decided “enough, fellas – we can’t possibly get any better than this!”. No, rather than continue to improve (because despite getting comprehensively outperformed across just about every relevant statistical category, their last start was admittedly an improvement), they’ve chosen to trot out a side missing just about every regular first grader in their Top 30. We don’t necessarily think this is why they’ll lose (to be fair, their regular first graders aren’t particularly good anyway – perhaps the backups will be an improvement?), but we do think it speaks volumes about the difference in attitudes between the two sides. Expect the Panthers to put the wringers through Parramatta in the first half, before sitting their key players (Nathan Cleary, Api Koroisau etc) for most of the second stanza (while still running up the score).
• It’s finally happened – we’ve given up on expecting the Knights‘ offense to suddenly click into gear. Newcastle have now had their first-choice spine together for three weeks, and through that period they’ve served up a dismal LBVOA of -56.13%, which would put them dead last, even behind Canterbury. A big part of that can be attributed to the loss of Lachlan Fitzgibbon, the Knights’ most dynamic edge forward who still leads their pack for line breaks despite having played just 10 games all season. Unfortunately, Fitzgibbon isn’t coming back, so attacking performances such as their past three – in which they’ve averaged under 18 points-per-game, despite facing the defenses ranked 12th, 13th and 15th – are likely to remain the norm. And though we can’t recall the last time we tipped the Broncos, the fact of the matter is that that likely isn’t enough to beat Brisbane. Though the Broncos may have only won 3 of their past 8 games, they managed to score 20+ in 6 of those, with the exceptions being against Penrith (the best D in the league) and last week against Cronulla, where they managed 16 without their own star second-rower Jordan Riki. Unlike Newcastle though, the Broncos get Riki and his nasty line-running back this week, bolstering an offense that’s been generally better than Newie’s, anyway. Add in the Knights’ decision to rest hooker Jayden Brailey, back-rower Mitch Barnett and winger Hymel Hunt (whose absence sees the defensively-challenged Starford To’a return to the side) and we firmly prefer the Broncos here, potentially by 12+.
• We were somewhat surprised to see the Sea Eagles name a full-strength side for this relatively-meaningless clash with the Cowboys, but like Ivan Cleary, we can understand if Des Hasler wasn’t satisfied with the Eagles’ performance last weekend against Canterbury. While the Eagles were able to rescue their attacking numbers with a late rush of points, their defensive numbers were absolutely appalling. For a likely Top-4 side to give up 5 line breaks to the worst offense in football two weeks out from the finals is disappointing enough, but to do it while dominating possession 57-43 is downright embarrassing. This was far-and-away Manly’s worst defensive performance of the year, and that includes their miserable opening month of the season in which they routinely leaked 30+. In this context, it makes sense for Des to want to tune up that D, which spells really bad news for the Cowboys. The Cows’ own D is so superbly bad that Manly can be considered a virtual lock to score 30+, while a renewed focus on defensive intensity has the potential to see North Queensland’s offense completely shut down. Taken together, we’re expecting the Eagles to warm up for the finals by handing out a good old-fashioned butt-kicking.
• Like Melbourne, the Rabbitohs have opted to rest the bulk of their squad for this inconsequential game against the Dragons. Unlike the Storm, though, we don’t have any previous examples of how they perform without such a huge swathe of stars. Souths have been fortunate enough to get through most of the season with an unusually clean bill of health, and as a result, the closest we’ve seen to a depleted Souths side was in Round 17 when they thumped North Queensland without Latrell Mitchell, Dane Gagai, Damien Cook, Jai Arrow and Cameron Murray. Yes, they did that pretty comfortably. But here, they’ll also be without Adam Reynolds, Cody Walker, Alex Johnston, Tom Burgess and Liam Knight. That’s an enormous loss of talent, and yet somehow, they remain the bookies’ favourites at time of writing. Sure, the Dragons are rubbish (good teams don’t lose 7-in-a-row) and are without their own best attacking players in Matt Dufty, Zac Lomax and Ben Hunt. But it seems like to a stretch to call them underdogs here. In 6 starts without Latrell this year, the Rabbitohs’ LBVOA dropped from their season-average of 31.09% to -17.71%. That difference is enormous, and should only be more significant given that 7 of the team’s top 8 players in line break assists will be watching from the sideline (the exception, Benji Marshall, is 4th on the team). For comparison, since losing Hunt 4 weeks ago, the Dragons have exceeded -17.71% twice, and never dropped lower than -22.42%. This suggests that at absolute worst, the Dragons should be able to hang with this Souths side when it comes to generating scoring opportunities, and with almost the entire Souths forward back sitting out, you’d fancy the Dragons should enjoy better field position than anything they’ve had to work with in the past month. We wouldn’t say we’re super confident – if anyone knows how to navigate their way to a victory with a piecemeal squad, it’s Wayne Bennett – but we just don’t think you can make a rational argument not to tip St George-Illawarra. They can’t possibly be that bad they could lose to the Bunnies’ NSW Cup team. Can they? No, surely not. We hope.
• Then we come to the Titans and Warriors. Last weekend, the Titans’ turned in an effort that looked remarkably like the Warriors – they turned in a flawless performance in which they led for over 70 minutes, made just 6 errors, dominated possession, outgained Newcastle by almost 250m, made 5 line breaks to 2… and then somehow choked it away at the finish. This butchering of a well-earned win was incredibly Warrioresque, especially when you consider the fact that a win could have lifted the Titans into the Top 8. Instead, they’ll turn up here needing a win to make the 8… that is, unless they don’t. You see, should either the Raiders or Sharks win earlier in the weekend, the Titans will fall agonisingly short of a finals berth, irrespective of how they go here. Which makes this game extremely difficult to predict. These sides match up quite evenly, with our model projecting the Titans as winners by a little over half a try (so, essentially a coin-flip). Should the Raiders and Sharks lose, we’d feel fairly confident tipping the Titans, on the expectation that the difference in motivation between a side playing for their season and a side waiting to go home should be significant, and should see the Titans over-perform their projection while the Warriors potentially under-perform. But what happens if the Raiders or the Sharks win? Having spent all week building up to a do-or-die clash that then doesn’t eventuate, what impact could that have on the Titans’ attitude when they then have to play a day and a dead rubber 36 hours later? It’s worth considering, and would have us all over the Warriors at their current price ($3.75), particularly with the game projecting so closely in the first place. In the meantime though, we’ll stick with our model that gives a narrow edge to the Gold Coast. But if you’re in a tipping comp and find yourself needing to chase a tip in the final week, this could be the place to look – especially if the Titans get knocked out on Thursday or Friday.
• And how will the 2021 season end? Not with a bang, but with a whimper. Sunday afternoon will see the season wrap up with a clash between two of the worst sides in the competition, the Tigers and Bulldogs. Though both sides gave a reasonable account of themselves last week, that still doesn’t have us particularly keen to see either of these sides one more time. In a match-up between the worst offense in football (Canterbury) and the worst defense in football (Wests), it’s hard to see this being anything other than a painful viewing experience, filled with mistimed passes, awkward running lines and comically bad defensive reads, all punctuated by a selection of park footy-level handling errors. For the record, we’ve got the Tigers here by about 4 tries to 3; but as we’re sure you can tell, we’re about as excited to watch it as you are.

Related NRL News & Posts:

• No Related NRL News

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 132/176 (75%) (Last week: 7/8)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Titans
• Raiders
• Rabbitohs
• Dragons
• Sharks
• Storm
• Sea Eagles
• Panthers

Notes

• Round 24 has thrown up a real head-scratcher to kick off the weekend, with the perpetually unimpressive Knights running into the hot-and-cold Titans. It feels like every week we’re writing about how we expect Newcastle’s offense to click sooner or later and – although they have at least been winning – it appears the answer remains eternally set to ‘later’. With 55% possession and over 500m of territorial advantage, it was difficult to be whelmed by the Knights’ 22-16 win over Canterbury. The Knights’ 4 tries scored against the Dogs merely equaled that of the Warriors and Tigers in the two weeks prior, and fell well short of the Titans’ 6 tries against the same opponent on just 49% possession. This win was typical of all the Knights’ recent victories – their offense was clunky and ineffective, but they were able to get home through weight of possession and field position. The Knights haven’t won a game without winning both possession and yardage since Round 9, which is a reflection of just how disjointed their offense has been. This could put them in some trouble against a side like the Gold Coast, who don’t require a lot of footy to create opportunities. In the past six weeks alone, the Titans have averaged over 6 line breaks per game in games where they lost the possession battle. For comparison, the Knights have only hit 6 line breaks in a game once in the last 10 weeks, and they needed 58% possession to do it. For the Titans, possession is less important for their offense than for their defense – in the 8 games in which they’ve lost the possession battle, the Titans have conceded 5 or more tries in 6 of them. On one hand, this is very bad. But on the other, the two exceptions – against the Bulldogs and Broncos – were against the offenses ranked last and 3rd-last in the NRL. And where do the Knights rank so far? 2nd-last. In summary, if the Titans can win the possession battle, they will almost certainly win the game. And if they don’t, it’ll be harder – but their offense might be good enough to get them home, anyway.
• The Raiders/Warriors clash is similarly tricky, with both sides projected dead equal, and both having butchered golden opportunities to make the Top 8 last weekend. If you’re a regular reader you’ll know how fond we are of the Warriors, and our view that they’re consistently undervalued by the bookies. Both remain true, and at $2.75, it’s hard to see New Zealand as anything other than a terrific value play once again. But, you’ll also know how little we think of Sean O’Sullivan, who’s earned a recall this week (we use the word “earned” extremely loosely in this context) following the loss of Chanel Harris-Tevita (why on earth Kodi Nikorima wouldn’t immediately reclaim his old #6 jersey, we have no idea; but we digress). However much we may love Reece Walsh and his Kiwi counterparts, we can’t ignore the fact that a halves pairing of O’Sullivan and Chad Townsend is about as exciting as a high school maths textbook. The pair have combined for just 18 try assists, 12 line break assists and 2 line breaks from 25 combined starts (Nikorima alone, meanwhile, has 14, 17 and 7 from just 20 starts, but whatever). This isn’t just a problem because the pair don’t produce many points; it’s a problem because it makes the Warriors more predictable, and consequently has the effect of blunting Walsh’s effectiveness. Since Walsh and CHT first played together in Round 9, Walsh has played 7 games with CHT and 5 without. In the games with CHT as a foil, the Warriors have a LBVOA of 9.44%, with Walsh personally providing 7 try assists. Without CHT, their LBVOA drops to -10.65%, with Walsh generating just 1 try assist. This effect is why Nathan Brown needs to play Nikorima at five-eighth – not because we necessarily think he’ll rip the Raiders apart, but rather because he provides a genuine threat to (and as such, demands a level of defensive attention that O’Sullivan simply… doesn’t). Assuming the teams run out as named, this is enough to have us leaning towards Canberra – they’re stout enough defensively to handle a one-dimensional attacking unit, and have a more well-balanced (if bland) spread of attacking weapons. We’re also quite pleased to see Ricky Stuart finally drop Sam Williams in favour of Matt Frawley (who says a persistent online campaign against a particular player can’t work?!?). In the end, we expect both sides to score 3-4 tries, and the game very well may be decided by goal kicking. After sitting through Walsh’s 1 from 5 last weekend that puts us right off the Warriors, but you should probably be aware that Jordan Rapana is no sharp-shooter himself. Taking the Raiders, with the Warriors to cover the +6.5 is probably the safest way to play this game.
• Still haunted by the Rabbitohs’ 60-8 thrashing last year, we weren’t inclined to give much thought to tipping the Roosters this weekend, but on closer inspection, they may be a better shot than we initially gave them credit for. While the further losses of Adam Keighran and Dale Copley are off-putting, they actually don’t represent any greater loss than the original losses of the Morris brothers – that is, while the Morrises, Keighran, Copley, Matt Ikuvalu, Billy Smith and Joseph Suaalii look like an insurmountable injury toll, in practice, they represent just 2 spots in the Roosters’ top 13 – centre and wing. If the Morrises were healthy and available, the remaining five likely wouldn’t be in the team at all (at best, Keighran would probably land a bench spot). So, the rest of their backline still looks as deadly as ever, and frankly, we’re not sure the next men up will be a huge drop-off anyway. The big test will obviously be in defense, but Lachlan Lam has shown to be a plenty capable edge defender so far in his career, and in any event, will likely be defending on the Roosters’ left edge, where the Rabbitohs are less likely to direct traffic. On the right – where the Roosters will need to defend Cody Walker et al – it’ll be Joey Manu and Brad Abbey (if that name sounds vaguely familiar, it’s because he once played 13 games for the Raiders and Bulldogs, most recently in 2018). Most critical to defending Souths, though, is to control the ruck and deny the Bunnies the chance to attack a retreating defensive line. In this respect, the Roosters should be well-equipped – their forward pack is near enough to full-strength (they remain without Angus Crichton and Lindsay Collins from their starters) and they rank 5th in the league for RMCVOA. In 3 games against Melbourne and Penrith (who are the benchmarks for ruck dominance), the Rabbits were outgained by over 1700m combined, and scored just 4 total tries. We’re not saying that the Roosters will win the battle up the middle, but we’d argue that they are good enough, and if they do, they can put themselves in with a big shot to be competitive. Because as ridiculous as Souths recent line break numbers have been, the Roosters have been right behind them (indeed, these sides rank 3rd and 4th in the NRL for LBVOA, respectively). Nobody’s noticed, because they haven’t been lighting up the scoreboard in the same way Souths have, but their numbers have nonetheless been decent. We’re sure you wouldn’t be surprised to hear that over the past 7 weeks, Souths have a LBVOA of 63.22% and a TBVOA of 4.14% (incredible, no doubt). But you may be shocked to hear that over the same period, the Roosters are at 50.79% and 27.58% respectively. Impressive, no? In short, though we agree that the Bunnies are slightly better and have a clear edge in bench quality (in large part due to the Roosters aforementioned injuries), we fancy the Roosters are better than they get credit for, and better than their current $4 price. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if this winds up being a belter.
• On Saturday arvo we’ll see the Dragons put their 6-week losing streak on the line against the Cowboys, who’ll come wielding a 10-game losing streak of their own. There’s a reasonable argument for picking either team here. In the case of the Dragons, you could say that while both sides bring their own unique brand of attacking ineptitude, the Dragons have at least demonstrated a degree of defensive competence from time-to-time (though admittedly, not with a great deal of consistency). North Queensland, in contrast, have shown themselves to be completely incapable of defending their own line for any length of time, and as a result, invariably end up conceding big totals, regardless of how well they may be playing otherwise (they’ve conceded 20+ points in 20 of their 22 matches). If you wanted to argue in favour of the Cows though, you could point to this week’s side being as good as just about any that they’ve fielded this year – Jason Taumalolo, Kyle Feldt and Murray Taulagi are all in, joining recent returnees Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Valentine Holmes. However, before you get too excited by the team list, it’s worth noting that they’ve had strong-looking squads at various other points in the season, and do you know how many times they’ve produced an above-average LBVOA? 6 (the Dragons, meanwhile, have somehow managed it 9 times). Should this turn out to be one of their better days, they very well might have a few points in them; but the higher-percentage play is probably to just assume that they’re “off” (again); and regardless, with their defense (or lack thereof) it’d take a pretty big score to get them home.
• Last weekend we tipped Matt Moylan to have a big day out against the Tigpies, and his contribution of 1 line break and 1 try assist from just 19 minutes quickly reminded the world that the lad can still play. However, the real story of the day for the Sharks was the coming out party for Braydon Trindall, who turned in an outrageous 4 try assists and 4 line break assists on the day. Sure, we have to acknowledge that it was against Wests, but still – the bloke had just 6 and 8 respectively from 15 prior starts this season. This was the first time we’ve seen Trindall really take a game by the horns, and if nothing else, he’s shown that he has what it takes to rip a mediocre defensive side apart. By the end of the game, the Sharks had produced their highest LBVOA of any game this season – including those with Shaun Johnson at halfback – and placed a foot back into the Top 8. That Top 8 spot is not without consequence here, as it gives the Sharkies something significant to play for, while the Broncos are just passing the time until Mad Monday. Don’t be fooled by the Broncs’ lucky win last weekend – they were outscored for tries 5 to 4, and saw their LBVOA decline for the 3rd consecutive week since losing Kotoni Staggs to injury (their LBVOA of -40.55% was the lowest they’ve recorded since being shut-out by Souths in Round 15). While the Broncos are in decline, the Sharks numbers actually appear to be building, and had their recent brace of 2-point losses gone the other way, they’d have won 9 of their past 12, and the narrative around this team would be significantly different. So, while both sides defenses are similarly mediocre, we fancy the Sharks’ offense is better than they’re getting credit for, and having the ability to parachute Moylan in at any moment has us giving them the nod here.
• From here, the final three games look like absolute massacres. We’ve gone into some detail in recent weeks about how much the Eels offense troubles elite defenses, so we won’t go into it again (HINT: they don’t), but of greater concern should be their recent defensive issues. After leaking an embarrassing 34 line breaks in three weeks (not a typo), they came out last weekend and gave up another 5 to the 5th-worst offense in the NRL. This may look like an improvement, but the Storm‘s offense is much closer in quality to the preceding three teams than it is to the Cows (in fact, they’re even better). This week Melbourne will have Jahrome Hughes, Brandon Smith and Justin Olam returning, and have scored 20+ in every game within their current 19-game winning streak. We doubt if Parra can score more than 10, and we doubt that Melbourne score less than 40. Parra are about to get flogged (again).
• Likewise, Sunday arvo will see Tom Trbojevic return to a Sea Eagles side that barely snuck home against Canberra, and in so doing, he transforms Manly’s offense from “OK” to “men against boys”. It feels like a cruel joke that Manly are returning close to full strength in the same week that they face the worst team in the NRL, who have just lost an entire forward pack’s worth of talent (Luke Thompson, Ryan James, Adam Elliott, Corey Horsburgh and Corey Waddell are all out from last week’s side), but here we are. The most bizarre part is that we’ve actually seen this before – in Round 16, Manly got a crack at the Bulldogs while they had half of their team rubbed out due to COVID violations. If you’re wondering how that played out, Manly won. 66-0.
• And finally, we get to see the Panthers unleashing Hell on the Tigers. We suppose it’s possible that Penrith have chosen to name a full-strength squad here in order to give their recent returnees a bit of match fitness, but we can’t help feeling that they really just feel like flexing on the Tigpies after Wests rolled their reserve grade unit back in Round 13. There’s no love lost between these two sides, and to be fair, despite comfortably handling South Sydney last week, we still think the Panthers’ offense has room to improve. The Tigers showed last weekend that their defense can really play a team into form, so it actually makes sense for Penrith to tune up by putting the wringers through their local rivals. We doubt the Tigers will trouble the Pennies’ defense even a little bit, and we think Penrith will be disappointed if they don’t win by 30+.

Related NRL News & Posts:

• No Related NRL News

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 125/168 (74%) (Last week: 7/8)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Storm
• Sea Eagles
• Panthers
• Sharks
• Knights
• Eels
• Roosters
• Warriors

Notes

• After watching the Titans get steamrolled by Souths last weekend, we doubt any of you were giving serious thought to tipping them here against the Storm. However, given the loss of a number of key Melbourne players – a group headlined by halfback Jahrome Hughes and utility Branden Smith – perhaps it’s worth giving it a second look. In Melbourne’s one game without Hughes this year, they comfortably hammered a struggling Canberra side 34-10 (however, it’s worth noting that they did it with their 6th-lowest LBVOA of the season). But that’s a pretty small sample size, so let’s go back to last year. Then, the Storm played 4 games without Hughes… and lost 3 of them (and to jog your memory, they’d lose just 1 other game all year). We’re not saying that Melbourne are about to lose here; what we’re saying is that you should expect the Storm to be a fair bit worse than usual this week – something that doesn’t appear to have been baked into their price (yet). At $8, the bookies seem to have formed the view that the Titans are somehow worse than sides like Canterbury, which is a position we find difficult to justify. Perhaps it’s because of the absence of AJ Brimson. But did you know that the Titans have already played Melbourne this year without Brimson – a match that they lost just 20-14 (the Storm’s 2nd-lowest winning margin this year)? To reiterate: we’re not about to tip the Titans straight-up; however, if you want to get loose, we think the current price is totally out of whack, and something like the +22.5 start looks extremely tempting against a Storm side who failed to score more than 26 points in  any game without Hughes a year ago.
• As with the game above, we’re not about to recommend tipping against the Sea Eagles head-to-head here, but it’s worth recognising that the current pricing of the game seems to be assuming that Tom Trbojevic does play (which he very well might, but it’s not yet certain), while failing to acknowledge the potential return of Charnze Nikoll-Klokstad for the Raiders (he’s been named in jersey #14). We shouldn’t need to tell you that Manly are a lot worse without Turbo playing, but given the persistent myth that the team no longer leans on Tommy because he’s somehow passed his talent through the rest of the squad via osmosis, it’s worth driving home just how big a difference he makes. 3 of Manly’s 4 lowest LBVOAs since Round 8 (when they were completely shut down by Penrith) have come in the 3 games that Turbo wasn’t playing. Yes, they managed to win 2 of those games, but those wins came against the Cowboys (and was part of what has now become a 9-game losing streak) and the Dragons (part of what has since become a 5-game losing streak). Put simply, winning those games doesn’t make Manly suddenly Turbo-proof – it simply puts them on equal footing with the Tigers. Oh, and the game they did lose without Turbo? It was against Canberra – you know, the same Canberra they’re running into this week. Well, it’s almost the same Canberra – the Raiders may yet be getting CNK back, and if there’s one thing we’ve learnt since he’s been out, it’s just how valuable he is to Canberra when he’s in. In the 4 full games he played to open the year, the Raiders won 3, and produced a LBVOA of 2.28%; since he went down though, they’ve won just 6 of 17, and seen their LBVOA drop to -17.84%. Should Turbo play, it’s probably all academic – you’d have to expect the Eagles to pour on the points, as they do against every other non-elite D. But if Turbo’s out – and even better, if CNK’s in – the Raiders look a lot less like the $4.50 underdogs they’re currently priced as, and a lot more like a coin-flip (and if you can get $4+ on a coin-flip, you should take it in a heartbeat).
• The Panthers/Rabbitohs clash on Friday night is an absolute slam dunk for match of the round, with the NRL’s 2nd-best team facing arguably the most in-form team in the competition. For what it’s worth, we prefer Penrith here, and actually pretty solidly. The reasons for this are fourfold. First, we’ve already seen the Panthers play Souths at full-strength this year, and it wasn’t pretty. The Panthers completely annihilated Souths that afternoon, to the tune of 56-12. Though we accept that the Rabbits are in much better touch now than they were then (and that the Panthers are in much scratchier form), 44 points is a lot to make up. Second, if you’re banking on Penrith’s recent form slump continuing on (and as far as form slumps go, we’re sure teams like Parra would love to enjoy a “form slump” of winning 6 of their last 7), you’re likely to be disappointed. With Nathan Cleary, Stephen Crichton and Isaah Yeo returning, they suddenly had a lot more sizzle back in their offense (albeit accompanied by a stack of handling errors, but it’s fair to expect a degree of rust). This week, that group are likely to be joined by Kurt Capewell, Api Koroisau and Tevita Pangai Jr. Speaking of Cleary, while Manly’s Turbojevic (the good one) gets all the plaudits, you might be interested to learn that it’s actually Cleary who remains undefeated in 2021, having won 14 NRL matches and both his Origin starts. Third, we pointed it out the last time these sides played, but the point still stands – Penrith’s D matches up extremely well against the Rabbitohs’ offense. Penrith’s swarming defense and control of the ruck has the effect of taking Damien Cook out of the game (the last time they met, Cook failed to register a single run), which then limits Souths’ offense to wide shifts down their left edge. This would be fine (Souths have arguably the best left attacking edge in the league), were it not for the fact that Penrith have the best defensive right edge in the league. If the Rabbits are forced to funnel their attack down that channel, the Panthers will be licking their lips, with guys like Crichton (just 7 line breaks conceded in 20 starts), Paul Momrovski (4 conceded from 12 starts) and Cleary (3 conceded from 13 starts) more than comfortable shutting them down. Finally, with Alex Johnston named to return for Souths, we’ll see Josh Mansour shunted back to the right wing, where he was relentlessly abused the last time these sides met, and where he’ll inevitably be targeted again. If Souths’ left edge is the game’s best, the Panthers’ would be right up there, but the difference in defensive quality on Souths’ right edge is night-and-day. Compare Penrith’s defensive right edge numbers (above) to Souths: Mansour has leaked 6 line breaks from 10 starts; Campbell Graham has 12 from 15; and Adam Reynolds has 17 from 20. Added together, Penrith’s right edge has given up 14 breaks from a combined 45 starts; the Rabbitohs? 35 from 45. We fully expect both sides to be up for it, but frankly, we just think Penrith are better at football than Souths, and that this matchup in particular is a kind one for Penrith (they’ve won their last 4 straight against the Bunnies). At $1.70+, we think they’re actually good value.
• We were kind of hoping to get the Sharks at a good price this week after they were unlucky in going down to Newcastle, while the Tigers are coming off a pretty comfortable win over North Queensland (yes, they made it look extremely difficult towards the end, but they were well in control for the majority of the game). Unfortunately, nobody seems to buying into that effort from Wests (and we don’t blame them), so this game seems priced about right – the Sharks will start favourites, but not overwhelmingly so. Should Matt Moylan play, we might call the Sharks a value at their current price, especially with Wests losing Jacob Liddle (on top of the continued absence of Daine Laurie). Liddle doesn’t get a lot of wraps (to be fair, Harry Grant left some enormous shoes to fill), but he has been superb for Wests this year, and is currently 6th in his team for LBs, and tied-2nd in the NRL among all hookers (he’s actually tied with Damien Cook, from 1 fewer game). His value was particularly glaring during a 3-game absence earlier in the season, in which the Tigers never scored more than 16 points in a game (from their other 18 games, they’ve exceeded 16 points 13 times). With both Liddle and Laurie gone, we don’t find a lot to be excited about with the Tigers’ offense, though we acknowledge that the Sharkies are hardly world-beaters themselves. If Moylan plays, he’ll be the best player on the field and should tip the game comfortably into Cronulla’s favour. If he doesn’t, we still prefer the Sharks, but you might be looking at another ugly grinder like Cronulla’s tussle with Newcastle last week – a tussle that they ultimately lost.
• After turning in a competitive-ish outing against the Rabbitohs in Round 18, the Bulldogs have seen their LBVOA decline every week since, hitting a recent low with a dismal -60.01% against New Zealand last weekend. They’ve now leaked 4+ tries in every game for 8 weeks straight, and are running into a Knights side who have only gotten their first choice spine together in the past week or so. You have to think that the Knights’ offense will click into gear sooner or later, and what better team to play them into form than your 2021 Wooden Spooners? Don’t be put off by the loss of Daniel Saifiti and Tyson Frizell – the Dogs have only outgained one opponent all year, and that was the Dragons (who rank last in the NRL for RMVOA). This pack should still be plenty good enough to beat the Dogs; it’ll then be up to their spine to decide by how much.
• Trying to assess how the Eels might fare this weekend is a bit tricky. On one hand, we shouldn’t be too put off by their recent attacking struggles – we already knew that their offload-happy attacking structure does absolutely nothing to trouble high-end defensive units, so it should come as no surprise that they’ve underwhelmed week-after-week as they’ve run into the toughest section of their draw. The problem though, is that that while they’ve finally got a shot at another cupcake, they’ll be left to do it without it without guys like Reed Mahoney, Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Ryan Matterson. The absence of RCG in particular has been tough on Parra, whose entire gameplan is built around dominating field position. With RCG in the team, they’ve outgained their opposition in 15 of 18 games; without him, they’ve been outgained themselves in all 3, and by an average yardage of over 450m per game. We warned last week that trotting out their best tackle-busting edge forward Isaiah Papali’i at prop was mind-bogglingly stupid and a total waste of his talent, and after seeing him used as an ineffective battering ram with 9 hit-ups for 6.5m per tote, you’d think Brad Arthur would have learnt his lesson. Nope. Now, they find themselves in a date with the Cowboys, who – despite being terrible at most aspects of rugby league – are actually the 2nd-best team in the league for RMVOA. This makes for a really difficult game to predict – on one hand, the Eels love playing defensive powderpuffs, and this is exactly the sort of opponent that Parramatta typically likes to put 50 on. But on the other hand, they’re in awful form themselves, and are suffering the effects of a few key absences, which actually line up quite well with the Cow’s strengths. We’re inclined to give Parra the benefit of the doubt this week (heck, if they don’t win this week, they may not win again this year) but it’s far from a lock, and we actually wouldn’t hate anyone who wanted to roll the dice on the Cowboys. Parramatta have been that bad.
• While the Dragons’ stats actually didn’t end up being that bad against Penrith, don’t be misled – they got a fair bump in the last 10 minutes after Nathan Cleary went off, and the Panthers ended the game with 12 men. Instead, look at the Dragons’ production in the first half, where they had 62% possession, 25 tackles in Penrith’s red zone, and won the total penalty count 5-2. With everything imaginable going their way, they managed to produce just 1 try and 1 line break, while turning an extra 29 runs into just 47 more metres. In the hope of finding a bit of attacking spark, Anthony Griffin has parachuted Matt Dufty back into the starting side here, and the return of Tariq Sims is sure to help, too. But you also should be aware that they’ve been forced to roll with Josh McGuire at hooker – a bloke who can barely pass, and whose very presence in the team has coincided with their worst runs of the season (their 4-game winning streak to start the year was snapped by his arrival; he was out injured for 2 of their 3 mid-season wins; and has now been conspicuously present in 4 games of their current 5-game losing streak). The Roosters‘ D may not be the equal of Penrith’s, but it’s still pretty darn good (they’ve conceded 3 tries or fewer for their last 6 straight), and their offense is good enough to rip apart some of the best defenses in the league (indeed, when these sides met in Round 7, the Roosters pumped the Dragons 34-10). We really like the Roosters here, and fully expect them to romp in.
• There’s still a long way to go, but the Warriors are coming. They’ve now quietly made it 3 on-the-hop, and with each passing week they seem to be getting more and more troops back. The sooner they can get Chad Townsend in over Sean O’Sullivan the better (Townsend is named on the extended bench again, so you can consider our hopes firmly “up”), but regardless, with Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Bayley Sironen returning this week, we’re fast approaching the best side they’ve put on paper in months. This game is priced quite interestingly, with the Broncos apparently quite popular following their narrow loss to the Roosters. As it happens, we’re thrilled to see the Warriors price creep longer, and fully intend to load up should they hit $2. You could be forgiven for thinking that the Broncos have been better ‘lately’ – they absolutely have been. However, you can’t ignore the fact that for much of that ‘lately’ Kotoni Staggs was ripping teams apart, and he’s now unfortunately unavailable. In Staggs’ 4 games, the Broncos had an unusually competitive LBVOA of -0.93%. You know how many times this season they’ve hit that mark without him? 3. Taking Staggs out immediately blunts the effectiveness of Jordan Riki (since opposition defenders can key in on him), and will likely see them directing their attack away from him and towards Herbie Farnworth on the left. This is fine, but we’ve been extremely impressed with the Warriors’ right edge defensively since Euan Aitken moved to right second row, and we doubt whether it’s an attacking approach that’s likely to outscore whatever Reece Walsh feels like producing. With Walsh, the Warriors are capable of attacking straight through the middle if he finds big, slow defenders (the Warriors put 3 line breaks through the middle third of the field last week), and he’s unusually comfortable attacking to his right (where he’ll find the defensively-challenged Farnworth, who’s leaked 19 tries and 21 line breaks in his 17 starts). We like this match-up for New Zealand, and we’re liking them in general at the moment. Let’s gone Warriors.

Related NRL News & Posts:

• No Related NRL News