The Obstruction Rule

2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 106/158  (67%)  (Last Week: 7/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Panthers by 6- We don’t what it is about Panthers/Storm games, but they all seem to get ruined by the absence of star players. Over the past two years, the only time we’ve seen anything approaching a full-strength hit-out between the competition’s two best sides was last year’s enthralling Preliminary Final (won by Penrith, 10-6). Beyond that, we’ve seen the Storm whack Penrith 37-10 without Nathan Cleary, Brian To’o, James Fisher-Harris and Isaah Yeo; a Cleary and Api Koroisau-less Penrith win 12-10 against a Storm side missing Ryan Papenhuyzen and Harry Grant; and earlier this year, a full-strength Penrith smoked Melbourne without Papenhuyzen and Jahrome Hughes. It’s that demolition that’s of most interest to us, since Papenhuyzen and Hughes are once again out, and Penrith’s form without Cleary and Jarome Luai (also absent) has been significantly better than Melbourne’s without PapenHughesen. While Penrith are somehow 3-0 without their Origin halves (admittedly, playing Canterbury and Wests in two of those surely helped), the Storm are 0-2 without their fullback-halfback pairing, losing to Penrith and North Queensland by a cumulative score of 68-12. Granted, these games were against the two best defenses of 2022, but even after adjusting for quality of opponent, the Storm still posted an utterly dismal LBVOA of -63.31% across those two starts. This matters, because Penrith showed in holding Canberra to just 6 points last week – the 13th time this season in which they’ve held an opponent to 2 tries or fewer – that no matter who lines up, their defense remains top notch. In contrast, Melbourne’s has fallen off the planet over the past two months, having now leaked 3 tries or more in their past 8 games straight (a string that’s included some of the league’s worst offenses, like Canberra, Gold Coast and New Zealand). At home, and boosted by the return of Viliame Kikau, we fancy that Penrith’s NSW Cup halves should be able to find 3 tries – and that’s typically more than enough for their defense to do the rest.
• Warriors by 2 – We wrote a few weeks back about how the Bulldogs‘ attacking numbers are wildly fluctuating from week-to-week between straight up terrible and actually pretty decent (in contrast, their defensive numbers have been consistently trash since Mick Potter took over). Last weekend was the worst so far, as they turned in just a single line break and 17 tackle busts while getting hammered by the Cowboys. The good news for Canterbury fans is that last week’s clunker doesn’t make us think another one is any more or less likely (the last time they were this bad they backed it up by dropping 28 points on Souths); the bad news is that they seem to be trending down, while the Warriors have been trending up, and will be bolstered by another rowdy home crowd. Over the past three weeks, the Bulldogs’ LBVOA sequence reads as follows: 22.99% > -19.32% > -70.24%. Meanwhile, the Warriors have been tracking: -10.28% > -2.59% > 65.81%. Besides the upward trend, the other thing that jumps out there for New Zealand is that even at their worst, the Warriors were measurably better than the Dogs have been in either of their past two games. The other point worth mentioning is that as shockingly bad as the Warriors’ defense has been lately (and believe us, it’s awful), in their two games at Mt Smart they were actually extremely good. How good? They had a LBCVOA of -36.44%, a RMCVOA of 0.22%, and a TBCVOA of -34.30%, on their way to conceding just 4 tries across two matches against Wests and Melbourne. The sample size is obviously small, but for context, all those numbers would put them in the top half of the competition, and their LBCVOA and TBCVOA would be the best in the league for the season. Against an up-and-down Canterbury side missing impact forward Tevita Pangai Jr, another game at that level would certainly be good enough to stir up a boilover.
• Rabbitohs by 1 – Picking a winner out of the Rabbitohs and Eels is a little trickier than we’d have thought, because of how strikingly similar they are stylistically. Both sides appear to pay very little attention to defense, seemingly playing with an attitude of “however many you score, we’ll score more”. At Parramatta, they’re yet to win a game while scoring fewer than 22 points (they’re 0-6 from these matches); at the Rabbitohs it’s even worse, where they’ve failed to win any matches scoring less than 24 (0-8). Suffice to say, if your defense is so poor as to require you to score 22+ in order to win football games, you’re a bigger threat to your coach’s job security than you are to the premiership. Picking a winner then becomes a choice between the two offenses, and by this measure, it’s a no-contest. Parramatta are like the Aldi version of Souths – sure they’ve managed to post 5+ line breaks in a game 10 times this season, but Souths have now done it 11 times in a row (and a ridiculous 17 times this season, if you were wondering). Parramatta have managed to run up 30+ points 5 times this season; the Bunnies have done it 9. Oh – and don’t forget, Mitchell Moses remains sidelined. Honestly, the only reason we have the margin so close is because we feel a bit spooked after Parra’s avalanche of points in the final quarter against Manly. Deep down in our heart of hearts though, we still think the Eels are rubbish (we’re just being a bit less loud about it).
• Roosters by 1 – Speaking of even match-ups, Saturday arvo should bring the game of the round, with both the Roosters and Cowboys in absolutely piping hot form. After struggling away with narrow loss after narrow loss, the Roosters finally hit the win button four weeks ago, and haven’t looked back since. Over those 4 games they’re undefeated, winning by an average score of 38-16. They’re not just winning, they’re stomping all over teams, backed up by a defense that’s held two above average offenses to just 3 line breaks a piece in the past fortnight. Picking Sydney would be a total slam dunk were it not for the Cowboys’ sudden injection of line breaks into their footy. Here’s a team who’d depended heavily on kick tries to score any sort of points in most games, who out of nowhere have ripped through for 19 line breaks in their past 2 games combined (for comparison, it took them 6 weeks to hit this mark to open the season). If this isn’t a mirage and the Cowboys have suddenly figured out how to create running tries, the competition should be on notice – they’ve already got the 2nd-best defense in the competition, and have shown an uncanny knack for having the volatile attacking kick produce more than their share of 4-pointers. We’re taking the Roosters though, in part because they’ve got a longer form line of offensive production, and in part because we know they can do it against the Cowboys, having already whooped them 28-4 in Townsville. But we don’t think this is a gimme – we just want to see the Cows repeat their production one more time before we fully buy in.
• Sharks by 16
• Broncos by 12
• Raiders by 16
• Sea Eagles by 6 – Just to be clear, we do expect the Titans to lose here, but we have the margin close because… well.. it usually is. The Titans’ numbers have rarely been awful all season long (though their defensive numbers appear to be falling off over the past few weeks, now that they’ve given up on the season), but they just have a knack for losing, regardless of opponent. Whether it’s by 10 points to Canterbury, or by 4 points to Brisbane, or by 8 points to Cronulla, the Titans typically hang around well enough, before ultimately folding meekly into submission. We expect more of the same here against an under-manned Manly pack missing Sean Keppie, Taniela Paseka and Karl Lawton. This Manly side can certainly be beaten, but they almost certainly won’t be.

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2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 99/150  (66%)  (Last Week: 6/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Roosters by 8 – Tonight’s clash feels a bit unpredictable, with both the Roosters and Broncos currently sitting within the NRL Top 8, but coming off a pair of the worst performances of Round 20. Sure, the Roosters got the chocolates last weekend, but after having the good fortune of drawing what was essentially a reserve grade Manly side, they would have liked to have seen a much better result than the paltry 3 tries to 2 victory they produced (particularly considering that Manly’s reggies side from which the replacements were drawn is running dead last in NSW Cup). The Roosters made a season-high 17 errors in that clunker, and missed a whopping 39 tackles (their 3rd-worst effort this year) on the way to one of the most extraordinarily underwhelming wins of recent memory. But what’s worse – barely beating a park football team, or getting pumped by the Tigers? That’s what we’re confronted with here, after Brisbane got torched by a team who hadn’t won a game since May*. To our tastes, we’re saying it’s the latter. Not entirely because of that result, but also because on closer inspection, we’re not sure how strong the Broncos’ recent form line was in the first place. Yes, they’ve quietly climbed their way into 5th spot on the back of 3 consecutive wins, but with those wins coming against Bottom 8-standard sides St George, the Gold Coast and Parramatta (not a misprint – we’re standing firmly on the side of ‘Parramatta are rubbish’), how well were they really traveling? Prior to that run, they were the last team Melbourne had beaten until last weekend, and they were the only Top 8 team North Queensland have beaten since Round 11. Indeed, even through their mini winning streak, the Broncos had an extremely run-of-the-mill LBVOA of 1.08% and LBCVOA of 2.91% – essentially the very definition of average. And this is why we’re rolling with the Roosters – because although the Roosters were ordinary last week, we feel like the Broncos have been a little ordinary for a while now.

* According to Ashley Klein

• Storm by 18
• Sea Eagles by 4 – Regular readers wouldn’t be surprised to see us once again tipping against the Eels, but let us be clear: this isn’t just because Mitch Moses is out (although we would admittedly struggle to ever tip a side with Jakob Arthur starting at halfback). Frankly, Manly are just better than Parra. While their respective offensive numbers are pretty comparable (which is impressive for the Sea Eagles in itself, considering they’ve played most of the season without Tom Trbojevic), there’s an absolute gulf between these sides on defense. Consider the following: the Eagles outperform the Eels in LBCVOA (4th vs 15th), RMCVOA (7th vs 13th) and TBCVOA (1st vs 9th). Prior to beating a 12-man Penrith side last week (whoopy-doo), the Eels gave up 36 points to Brisbane (the Broncos’ 2nd-highest score of the year), 18 to the Warriors (New Zealand’s 6th-highest total of the year) and 20 points to Wests (their 7th-highest total of the year). If we’re generous and suggest that Manly only score their own 7th-highest score of the season, the Eels would be left chasing down a score of 25 points against the league’s 7th-best defense, armed with an offense being steered around by a halfback whose chief ability is his knack for sharing DNA with the coach. We don’t want any part of that, thank you.
• Rabbitohs by 16
• Panthers by 10 – We’d ordinarily have the Panthers about 18 points better than the Raiders, but the loss of both Penrith’s starting halves certainly needs to be considered. Thankfully, we’ve already seen the Panthers play twice this year without their star duo (in Rounds 13 & 18 vs Canterbury and Wests), and in those games their LBVOA… improved from 14.69% to an other-worldly 58.34%. Now, we certainly don’t actually think the Panthers’ offense is better without two of their best players (the uptick in production is likely just a consequence of the small sample size), but it nevertheless suggests that whatever drop-off we do get isn’t likely to be too bad. We’re marking Penrith down a little bit, but if their defense isn’t badly affected (and with the rest of the side essentially at 100%, there’s no reason to think it shouldn’t be), they should still be good enough to keep Canberra’s offense to about 12 points, which would make this game pretty winnable, even with a reserve grade halves combo.
• Sharks by 20+
• Cowboys by 12 – The Cowboys/Bulldogs match is a little intriguing as a match-up, given that both sides struggle for line break production, but are able to prop their try scoring numbers up through the effective use of kick tries. It’s not a secret that we’re not huge believers that kick tries are a huge marker of success (if they were, history would remember Rugby League Hall of Famer Luke Walsh), but it’s nevertheless true that when you think of these sides in 2022, you immediately think of kicks for Jeremiah Nanai (who has an amazing 16 tries so far), or the Burton-to-Addo-Carr connection (with the Foxx having bagged 14 tries). The volatility of kick tries naturally makes this game difficult to predict (indeed, the outcome of their Round 1 meeting was appropriately decided by a bunker review of a last ditch Cowboys kick try), but we’re happy to favour the Cows on the assumption that they should earn the lion’s share of field position (which is one of the most vital contributing factors to scoring from kicks). The Cowboys have won the yardage battle by 200m or more in 11 matches so far this season; the Bulldogs have only won the yardage battle at all 7 times, and by 200+ metres twice. This mismatch of yardage should make it difficult for the Doggies to continue to pull tries out of their wazoo, and give the Cowboys a strong platform from which to grind out another win.
• Knights by 1 – As diabolically awful as the Knights have been lately, we find ourselves tipping them here largely on the strength of their team list alone. While the Tigers added Jackson Hastings to a growing injury ward that already included Luke Brooks, Alex Twal, Stefano Utoikamanu and Shawn Blore; the Knights are welcoming back star centre Bradman Best, as well as potentially utility Kurt Mann. The combined loss of Hastings and Brooks is a real blow for a Tigers unit who’ve been attacking pretty well over the past three weeks. Though they ultimately scored more points in their first match without Brooks last week, their LBVOA actually dropped from 66.37% over the previous two weeks, to 33.63% (which is still very good, but nevertheless headed in the wrong direction). The added loss of Hastings – who has almost 800 more touches this year than anyone named this week, and leads the team with 21 try involvements – will only hurt, given it must fundamentally alter their attacking structure. In contrast, though the Knights have been utterly atrocious of late, it’s worth noting that in Best’s only match of the last two months they put 28 points on Souths with a LBVOA of 27.46%. Meanwhile, Kurt Mann’s last 4 matches produced a LBVOA of 6.60%, while in the three games since, that dropped to a disturbing -42.40%. The point here is that if there is anyone you didn’t want to see the Tigers lose it was Hastings, and if there were any two players you really wanted to see the Knights get back, they’re arguably Best and Mann (though admittedly that Ponga guy would be pretty handy, too). Which leaves us picking Newcastle, albeit with no conviction whatsoever, and feeling so filthy that we need to go and take a shower.

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2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 93/142  (65%)  (Last Week: 5/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Roosters by 16 – At this point you’d need to have been living under a rock to be unaware of the Sea Eagles‘ Pride jersey fiasco, which has led to seven regular starters standing themselves down. Without wanting to wade into the ludicrous notion that wearing a rainbow somehow contravenes their religion (yet being a walking billboard for gambling, alcohol and the occasional church stabbing apparently doesn’t), let’s just say that this match should have been well within the range of winnability for Manly, should they be having an “on” day. Sure, they wet the bed pretty spectacularly against the Dragons last weekend, but the week after previous comparable bed-wettings they’ve actually played quite well (they backed up their flogging from Souths by touching up the Tigers 36-22; they backed up their 38-0 torching from Brisbane by getting within an inch of upsetting Parramatta). Unfortunately the loss of half their starting team probably puts an end to the chance of a similar rebound performance, and with this week’s opponent, the Roosters, immediately above them on the ladder, it’s likely to be a particularly painful loss. For what it’s worth, we’re still not expecting a complete demolition – this kind of feels like the sort of “us against the world” situation that should galvanize the players who do turn up – but the Eagles’ lack of roster depth (and the rapidly improving form of the Roosters) should still make for a comfortable enough Sydney victory.
• Storm by 18
• Panthers by 20+ – Parramatta apologists like to point to their upset 22-20 victory over the Panthers in Round 9 as some sort of “proof” that they’re contenders. Realists prefer to look at the fact that they got creamed in the stats that night – they lost the line breaks 6-2 and run metres 1492-1349, despite winning the possession battle 54-46 (how on earth do you get outgained by almost 150m while having an extra 30 runs?!) – as evidence of exactly how far away the Eels actually are. The Panthers will be without Origin stars Jahrome Luai and Stephen Crichton here, which could keep the margin below 20, but with Penrith’s offense recently heating right up (last week’s 4 line break effort against the league’s 4th-best defense snapped a 9-game streak of making 5 or more line breaks in matches – the Eels don’t have 9 such games collectively on the season), we’re still happy tipping a walloping.
• Raiders by 6 – We’ve been talking up the Raiders for a while now (and we still think they’re being quietly underrated as they continue their slow march up the NRL ladder), but we just want to warn that this game isn’t necessarily the slam dunk tip it may appear to be on first glance. As good as the Raiders may be, their offense remains strangely limited to a ceiling of 4 tries per game (they’ve exceeded that mark just 3 times all season). Given the strength of their D, this is often enough. But it’s nevertheless worth noting that in Jayden Campbell’s 8 games in first grade this year, the Titans have hit this mark themselves 6 times (and on his career, he’s 10 from 15). As it happens, last week he didn’t even hit the field until the 48th minute, from which point the Titans scored 3 tries in the following 20 minutes. If Justin Holbrook stops with the self-sabotage and actually plays his best attacking player for the full game, the Gold Coast do have the capacity to score enough points for this to be competitive (even against a defense of Canberra’s quality). Of course, they’d likely probably still lose (the theme of their season has been being otherwise competitive on the way to getting repeatedly beaten), but we’re not banking on them getting flogged, and we actually don’t mind the Titans at their current price of $3.10.
• Sharks by 8 – With the Rabbitohs extending their run to 4 consecutive wins since Latrell Mitchell’s return, we can certainly understand the appeal in picking the Bunnies. All of a sudden, the Rabbitohs are absolutely raining points, and seem to have put aside the inconsistency that plagued them earlier in the year. However, winning has a bit of a tendency to mask deficiencies – while the South Sydney Hype Train has been quickly gathering steam, apparently nobody’s noticed that they’ve now leaked 6 line breaks in 3 consecutive matches (2 of which were against offenses ranked in the competition’s bottom 3). Given the rate that their line has been getting put through the shredder, we can’t help feeling like the Sharks may be just the team to hand the Bunnies a heavy dose of reality. The Sharks rank 1st in the league for LBVOA, and are a better defense than any of the sides Souths have faced since Mitchell’s return (meaning we’re not expecting Souths to drop another 24+ score – which is exactly what they’re likely to need in order to keep pace with the Sharkies). This definitely has Match of the Round potential, but it nevertheless looks like a match-up that plays to Cronulla’s strengths.
• Broncos by 18
• Bulldogs by 6 – As with the Rabbitohs above, the recent wins for the Bulldogs seem to have obscured the extent to which their defense has completely disintegrated since the arrival of Mick Potter as coach. Yes, they’re suddenly scoring points, but when your defense is so shoddy that you’re forced to rely on multiple intercept tries in order to get past the Titans, it’s not a good sign. Since they switched coaches, their LBCVOA has collapsed from -18.50% with Barrett (good enough for 2nd in the competition) to 14.75% under Potter (12th). Accordingly, last week marked the 5th time in 8 games that they’ve given up 26 points or more. Thankfully, this week they’ve drawn a Knights side who have hit the 26 point mark just 3 times all season, and are now without their best player (Kalyn Ponga) and edge forward Lachlan Fitzgibbon (who’s having a curiously down year, but has historically been one of their better performers). The Knights’ attacking struggles are the only reason we’re tipping the Doggies, and if you’d been wondering why we refuse to buy into the mirage of the Bulldogs’ lift in form, now you know.
• Cowboys by 14

Related NRL News & Posts:

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2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 88/134  (66%)  (Last Week: 7/8)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%) Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66% Line Betting: 55% (NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Broncos by 8 – How on earth the Eels can be coming into this match as favourites against an absolutely piping hot Broncos side is honestly beyond us. What is it exactly about Parramatta that’s so appealing? Is it their Bottom 4-standard defense that has given up 4 or more line breaks in all but 3 matches this season (and 6+ in 8 of those)? Is it their mediocre offense that ranks below average in both LBVOA and TBVOA (and in the only VOA category they’re above average for – RMVOA – Brisbane are the best in the league)? Perhaps it’s their apparently impressive past month or so of football, in which they’ve copped 2 hidings of 13+, while winning 3 games unconvincingly by 10 points or fewer (all against teams currently outside the Top 8, no less)? In all likelihood, the answer is probably in Parramatta’s strong recent record against the Broncos, having won their past 5 straight. However, it’s worth remembering that across those three seasons, the Broncos finished 8th, last and 14th – which is to say, just about everyone has a strong recent record against Brisbane. But this Broncos outfit looks different. These Brisbane Broncos sit equal with the Eels on the ladder, have won back-to-back games with essentially a reserve grade outfit, and will now be bolstered by the return of their entire starting middle rotation (Payne Haas, Corey Jensen and Patrick Carrigan), plus Corey Oates and Kurt Capewell to boot. We’ve long been of the view that Parra are more likely to miss the 8 altogether than they are to make the Top 4, and Brisbane can go a long way towards bringing that to fruition tonight by handing them the beating their scrub defense deserves.
• Sea Eagles by 20+ – Suffice to say that we don’t consider the Dragons a worthy opponent of the Sea Eagles, but we just want to bring your attention to the terrific price on Manly, who are currently at a ludicrous $1.67 against a St George-Illawarra side who’ve leaked 86 points and 18 line breaks in 2 weeks, and are now without their team leader in tackle busts, Moses Suli. We can only assume that punters are concerned about how Manly will go without Jake “The God of Plod” Trbojevic. The answer, in our view, is ‘significantly faster’, and to assuage your concerns, rest easy in the knowledge that in 4 games without Plod last year, they won 3 of those and posted their 2 highest points totals of the season (66 vs Canterbury and 56 vs the Titans). With Plod replaced in the squad by Taniela Paseka (3rd among Manly forwards for metres-per-carry, vs Plod’s last), if anything, we like them more.
• Roosters by 10 – Having ended a 4-match losing run in a bit of a pointsfest last week against the Saints, there are plenty of reasons to feel good about the Roosters‘ chances here. Sure, they’re still missing a couple of key forwards (Lindsay Collins and Siosiua Taukeiaho), but they’re also gaining reinforcements in the form of Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Matt Lodge, so their pack should still be plenty competitive. Our biggest concern with Sydney is actually the recent state of their defense, having leaked 5+ line breaks in their past 4 consecutive games. The worst offender has typically been Paul Momirovski, who was ironically brought over from Penrith as something of a defensive specialist. He’s unfortunately been struggling badly in 2022, leaking the 11th-most line breaks in the competition, despite playing just 13 games. He shouldn’t be too exposed here given the Knights’ typical inability to effectively utilise their centres, but we’ve nevertheless capped the margin in anticipation of Newie bagging a few tries.
• Raiders by 12 – As we’ve said previously in Raiders games, the margin here doesn’t reflect our confidence in Canberra. We feel plenty comfortable tipping Canberra here – we’re giving the Warriors about a 50/50 shot to even reach 10 points – but the margin in Raiders games is limited by the low ceiling of their offense. In 17 matches this season, the Raiders have exceeded 24 points just twice – despite having hit 20 points 7 times. If they’re ever going to run up a score, a home tilt against the defense ranked 12th is as good a time as any to do it, but we’re not betting on it.
• Panthers by 14 – An away trip to Penrith will be a good test for the Sharks, who’ve recently been warming back up into a little bit of form. The questions lingering over that form are over the quality of sides they’ve beaten – in winning 5 matches on the trot, they’ve beaten the sides sitting 12th, 14th and 15th, and an Origin-depleted Melbourne, before finally rolling an opponent of note last weekend in North Queensland. Though the win over the Cowboys was certainly convincing, it was also predictable – the Cowboys are a plus-matchup for Cronulla, given the gulf between the sides in their abilities to produce line breaks. However, that isn’t the case here – while Cronulla rank 1st in LBVOA, the Panthers are an admirable 4th, and arguably in better form (Penrith have posted positive LBVOAs in their past 9 straight matches, compared to Cronulla’s 7). Beyond that, the Panthers are otherwise better right much across the board – they have a better defense, better pack, better wingers (especially with the loss of Sione Katoa) and better halves. Though Cronulla have done a good job this year beating the teams they should beat, they’ve also gotten whacked a few times by the teams who are better than them (most notably Melbourne, Sydney and Canberra). Penrith are the latter.
• Storm by 12 – The Rabbitohs/Storm match is particularly interesting given the different trajectories these two sides appear to be on. In the Bunnies’ case, they’ve been reinvigorated by the return of Latrell Mitchell, winning 3 straight games while posting 35 points per game. Melbourne, meanwhile, have dropped 3 straight for the first time since 2015, driven largely by the cumulative impact of injuries and Origin. On the surface, it looks like a slam dunk tip of the Rabbitohs, but we’re not so sure. With their Origin contingent back last week, Melbourne actually outgunned the Raiders for line breaks 6 to 4, and outgained them by over 100m (after having been outgained themselves by over 200m in the previous two losses), which makes last week’s loss look a little different from the previous two (in which they were, to be frank, terrible). The loss of Ryan Papenhuyzen stings, but to be fair, he was lost before the quarter mark of last week’s game (meaning most of their numbers were posted without him), and you may be surprised to learn that they actually won their last 3 matches that Papz sat out (against Manly, Sydney and Brisbane – all sides right around Souths on the ladder). Most critically for us though, is the likelihood that Melbourne should have an absolute ton of possession, with the Storm bringing the league’s lowest error rate (under 9 per game) into a match against the league’s highest (almost 13). Armed with a spine still loaded with Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes and Harry Grant, we just don’t think the Rabbitohs’ D is good enough to withstand any sort of prolonged exposure (especially having just given up 28 points for two weeks running against offensive featherweights Newcastle and Canterbury). In all likelihood, we think both attacking units are likely to do well, but we’re assuming Melbourne win possession and field position, and that difference should be worth a try or two.
• Titans by 2 – What do you prefer – the consistent mediocrity of the Titans (who’ve produced a LBVOA between -6.00% and -29.23% in 7 of their past 9 matches), or the hot-and-cold mystery box of the Bulldogs (who’ve bounced up-and-down for five weeks between -63.86% and 30.01% – FYI, on the current pattern they’re due for a “down”). Last weekend marked the Titans’ 7th loss this year by 8 points or fewer, which highlights that they’re not generally that far away – they just don’t win. The return of Jayden Campbell will be a huge help (they average 19.7 points per game with Campbell, a mark they’ve hit just once in 10 games without him), but the biggest argument in favour of picking the Gold Coast is probably in the other team, where Jake Averillo (4th on his team for try involvements) has been scratched due to COVID, and Josh Addo-Carr (2nd) remains in doubt. For an attacking unit that we’re still not convinced is actually any good, that’s enough for us to be put off; but we can understand anyone’s hesitation actually backing the Titans (it just feels icky, doesn’t it?).
• Cowboys by 20+

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2022 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 81/126  (64%)  (Last Week: 2/4)

2021 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2020 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (74%)

2019 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (64%)

2018 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: (58%)

Line Betting: (46%)

2017 Season Results:

Head-to-Head Tipping: 66%

Line Betting: 55%

(NOTE: If this is your first visit to the site, be sure to click here for an explanation of what we’re all about.)

• Sharks by 6 – The opening match of the round shapes as the most intriguing, with both sides sitting in the Top 4 and the game projected dead even with the bookies. Though both sides are enjoying a better year than usual, we don’t actually think either side is wildly stylistically different to their past few seasons – the Sharks come in as a line break-producing machine (they rank 1st in LBVOA) that is held back by a ludicrously high error-rate (they make the 2nd-most errors per game); the Cowboys prefer to grind field position (they rank 5th in both RMVOA and RMCVOA) in order to compensate for what’s otherwise a pretty underwhelming offense (they rank just 10th for LBVOA). This has been the case for the past few seasons (though both sides are obviously doing what they do even better in 2022), so it’s probably worth observing that Cronulla come in having won the past 7-straight meetings between these sides (with the Sharkies scoring 20+ in 6 of those). The match-up seems to be fruitful for the Shire boys, and North Queensland’s decision to rest all their Origin stars other than Tom Gilbert only tilts the match further in Cronulla’s favour (for a team that leans heavily on kick tries, taking away Tom Dearden as a kicking option and Jeremiah Nanai as a kick recipient can only hurt).
• Eels by 14
• Roosters by 12 – This comes with the caveat that we don’t yet know for sure that all the Roosters‘ Origin contingent are backing up – James Tedesco has been named, for example, but with Lachlan Lam on the extended bench, the Roosters do have the option to play Lam in the halves and slide Joey Manu to fullback. With Sydney having already lost book-ends Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Lindsay Collins, there probably does come a point where you have to consider the Dragons (especially considering that the Dragons actually won their last meeting, back in Round 7). We’re not quite there yet – watching them get outgained by a reserve grade Broncos side last weekend has us right off them – but if Teddy and Crichton are late scratchings, we’d definitely be considering it.
• Sea Eagles by 8 – We’re not saying the Knights are good, but we will say that they’re suddenly playing much better footy of late. Their past 3 performances have been their 3rd, 4th and 5th best outings of the season in terms of LBVOA, and that upward trajectory should only continue with Kalyn Ponga coming back into the side after missing their past 2 starts. With the Sea Eagles having leaked 58 points across their last 2 starts, the Knights certainly have the upside to nudge the 20-point mark again here. Unfortunately, we still don’t see that being enough points. Despite losing Tom Trbojevic for the season, the Eagles have been in a little bit of an attacking purple patch recently, racking up 5 or more tries in their past 4 straight. A big part of that production has come from the Eagles suddenly unlocking their outside backs, with Tolutau Koula and Jason Saab having produced 5 and 3 line breaks respectively in these 4 matches, after making 0 and 2 in the entire season up until that point. Coming up against a Newcastle side whose outside backs have leaked the most (Dane Gagai), 2nd-most (Enari Tuala) and 7th-most (Dom Young) line breaks in the competition, this is an absolutely delicious match-up for Manly’s speedsters, and they should have too much firepower in what shapes as a high-scoring shootout.
• Broncos by 6 – We’ve projected this to be close on account of the Broncos once again naming a largely reserve grade-quality forward pack, but after watching them smoke the Dragons last weekend, we’re not about to tip against them again, especially against a group mired in a 6-game losing streak. This should be winnable for the Titans, but in reality it probably won’t be.
• Panthers by 12 – Those with long memories may recall the Panthers getting pumped 26-6 in the corresponding game last season, in which Penrith rested their entire Origin contingent (as they are again doing here). For this reason alone we’re tempering expectations for the Panthers, no matter how good they’ve been lately. That being said, the situation is a little bit different. For a start, the Tigers are (somehow) going significantly worse than they were a year ago. Last season, they came into the match after a dominant win over St George-Illawarra, and the win formed part of a promising period of the season in which they won 4 of 6 matches (they’d only win 4 other games all season). This year, they come in on a 5-game losing streak, in which they’ve been outgained in every match (Penrith’s forward pack, by the way, is the least affected part of their side), and leaked 20+ in every match, while actually scoring 20 just the once. Secondly, Penrith’s replacement squad looks better here, with their left edge of Taylan May, Izack Tago and Viliame Kikau intact, and a halves pairing containing zero Tyrone Mays. Finally, while Penrith lost both their Origin-affected outings last season, we’ve already seen them play without their studs this year – and they looked remarkably Penrith-ish, pumping the Bulldogs 30-18 in a game that was far less competitive than the score even suggests. With the Bulldogs arguably a better side than Wests at this juncture, that’s probably enough to stick with Penrith’s NSW Cup squad here.
• Storm by 10 – If you wanted to have a sniff on an upset this week, we don’t think the Raiders are a terrible shout – the Storm are mired in a horror defensive stretch in which they’ve given up 20+ points in 3 straight games, while slumping to a below-average LBCVOA of 5.55% (their season-average is -8.52%). The way Melbourne’s defending, you have to at least give the Raiders a shot – but we probably also need to manage expectations for a Canberra offense that’s only exceeded 4 tries in a game 3 times all season. The Raiders are a fundamentally limited offense, and as bad as Melbourne have been on D recently, it would be difficult to argue that they’ve been worse than sides like the Warriors, Canterbury or Parramatta – all sides who’ve kept the Raiders under 4 tries. And with the Storm finally getting their first-choice spine back together this weekend, the reality is that Canberra will almost certainly need to find at least 4 tries to win (even allowing for how good the Raiders’ defense typically is). Our tip is on the assumption that the Raiders don’t have those points in them – but we do acknowledge that Melbourne’s defense has been so poor lately that it’s not completely out of the question.
• Rabbitohs by 12

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